Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What’s lead to the smashdown on Mosaic? Down 27%. K&S was up earlier in Germany.

Market panic probably.Swings are incredible in many areas.Lots of liquidation going on.

[Harley]

Seems the only thing I can buy on-line from Sainsbury's at the moment is their stock!

Every little helps, as it were! 

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, BadAlchemy said:

Me too. I bought probably my last little tranche of RDSB for 9.41 today. Don't be jealous though as I paid over twice that for my first lot!

Interesting to read that David Hunter bloke who believes this is not actually THE 'Big Kahuna' but that we'll have a melt up to 4000 in the S&P and then the Almighty Crash after that. Makes me think...  what could be bigger than this !? 

The thinking here though is that this IS the big one...? Seems to me to hinge on whether the Fed now print $20 trillion or stop at $3 trillion as to which way it goes...? Do they even have a clue what they are facing and what they need to do, I wonder...

Just to check with the gang on here is the view that this is the Big Kahuna, if it was the big kahuna we would have to be well over 50% down in the Dow from the 30K top it posted a month back. I always envisioned the Big Kahuna to be a 75% down from the top

[Castlevania]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Market panic probably.Swings are incredible in many areas.Lots of liquidation going on.

That was my thought. I bought K&S yesterday, having originally planned to buy when they were over €10 a share. Will check that it wasn’t anything catastrophic but at $7 will most probably look to buy a few hundred.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Bollocks.  What we have here are a few thousand greedy bastards using a system to  keep them up and you down.

We dont have a government, we have over lords.  Telling us one thing and doing the other.

We are slaves, one way or another.

You might think it's okay but I bloody dont.

The whole structure of government needs to change, there's too many people, too few resources and unfairness at every turn.

Agree 100%...after yesterday's funding announcements it became clear to me why they were hyping up a simple virus to epidemic levels, they knew the economy was fuc@ed, and knew the public wouldn't let them get away with another direct bailout like in 2008, so they found a scapegoat...the problem is the public let them get away with it via their hysterical behaviour and lack of critical thinking!

...anyone who works now and pays taxes is a mug!

[BadAlchemy]

Southwestern Energy (SWN) did well this last week. Almost doubled in price when all others I have struggled. I have no idea why 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Me too. I bought probably my last little tranche of RDSB for 9.41 today. Don't be jealous though as I paid over twice that for my first lot!

Interesting to read that David Hunter bloke who believes this is not actually THE 'Big Kahuna' but that we'll have a melt up to 4000 in the S&P and then the Almighty Crash after that. Makes me think...  what could be bigger than this !? 

The thinking here though is that this IS the big one...? Seems to me to hinge on whether the Fed now print $20 trillion or stop at $3 trillion as to which way it goes...? Do they even have a clue what they are facing and what they need to do, I wonder...

I dont think they do,Powell is a lawyer,and the rest of them arent exactly macro people.Of course that means they will end up printing more in the end,they are way behind the curve here,the $ is telling them,its not even difficult,just look at the $.The world needs to hope he is waking up,and quickly.

Its incredible that they are shutting down the economy here.The government are doing ok,but need to really step up the fiscal answers.There will be nobody left to recover if they arent careful.I expected £700 billion,so expect another £300+ billion to come,they need to pay peoples wages for 3 months,cancel VAT,cancel council tax,cancel NI for employers.BOE needs to inject into the credit markets as well.

We might see capitulation in the oil stocks the next few days,so its probably best not to look at them as it can send you for the valium.

Iv seen and traded through several events like this,but i think this is the most dangerous,as they are shutting everything down.More will die through that i expect than the virus in the end.

 

 

[Lavalas]

1 minute ago, BadAlchemy said:

Southwestern Energy (SWN) did well this last week. Almost doubled in price when all others I have struggled. I have no idea why 

I was thinking of buying at the bottom (which would have been luck really) but didn’t have the conviction. Gas seems has benefited from the oil slump.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That was my thought. I bought K&S yesterday, having originally planned to buy when they were over €10 a share. Will check that it wasn’t anything catastrophic but at $7 will most probably look to buy a few hundred.

Im nearly full of potash,but room for a few more.I expect they will 10 or 20 bag if they get through this,they are ones i will have to stop myself selling too early though.

[Bricks & Mortar]

13 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

ust to check with the gang on here is the view that this is the Big Kahuna, if it was the big kahuna we would have to be well over 50% down in the Dow from the 30K top it posted a month back. I always envisioned the Big Kahuna to be a 75% down from the top

I don't think it's the big Kahuna right now.  If the Fed don't get hold of it toot soonish, it will be.

I think, for David Hunters thesis to be correct, the Fed would print just enough to take the S&P somewhere near his 4000 level.  At that point, the inflation caused by all this printed cash chasing a reduced amount of goods in the real economy, coupled with the helicopter cash running out, would drag everything into a proper Big Kahuna.
I still like the theory.  But, given the Fed seems completely clueless as to how much to print, the S&P4000 call looks very uncertain to me. 

[BadAlchemy]

5 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Gas seems has benefited from the oil slump.

Ah thankyou, that makes sense now.

[Boon]

Would the SOIL ETF be a good proxy for the potash companies?

[Castlevania]

8 minutes ago, Boon said:

Would the SOIL ETF be a good proxy for the potash companies?

They haven’t issued a KID so not available if you live in Europe.

[Alifelessbinary]

Wow another crazy day. I’m struggling to keep up and have brought some more Shell and BP today. 
 

The share value destruction for previously well respected companies is incredible to see.

It’s also an education to see the price of silver crash but then watch all the bullion dealers instantly sell out and retain a massive premium on remaining stock.

While I knew this was going to happen the speed is still incredible and has blindsided me.

Can anyone explain why Go Ahead Group have been absolutely spanked this week, down 68% in a week! 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

36 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Southwestern Energy (SWN) did well this last week. Almost doubled in price when all others I have struggled. I have no idea why 

The crems in the SW are electric powered 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Wow another crazy day. I’m struggling to keep up and have brought some more Shell and BP today. 
 

The share value destruction for previously well respected companies is incredible to see.

It’s also an education to see the price of silver crash but then watch all the bullion dealers instantly sell out and retain a massive premium on remaining stock.

While I knew this was going to happen the speed is still incredible and has blindsided me.

Can anyone explain why Go Ahead Group have been absolutely spanked this week, down 68% in a week! 

Transport shut downs.They get 75% of their revenue from contracts with TFL/councils though,not fares.As long as they can cancel services they should be ok.

Market is pricing almost anyone who relies on customers in front of them for bankrupcy.That is what the governments £330 billion is for.Government need  the transports though whatever happens so id expect them to allow them to run sunday services,maybe make direct payments to them etc.

The government is saying we are going to bankrupt almost every business in the country by creating lockdowns.I expect they will use the next £300 billion coming to pump direct into companies in some way.

 

[Loki]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv seen and traded through several events like this,but i think this is the most dangerous,as they are shutting everything down.More will die through that i expect than the virus in the end

Is it too paranoid to wonder if they're just going to let the financial system self destruct? I suppose we'll have a clue before any one else if the fed doesn't do what they need to do.

[JREWING]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Transport shut downs.They get 75% of their revenue from contracts with TFL/councils though,not fares.As long as they can cancel services they should be ok.

Market is pricing almost anyone who relies on customers in front of them for bankrupcy.That is what the governments £330 billion is for.Government need  the transports though whatever happens so id expect them to allow them to run sunday services,maybe make direct payments to them etc.

The government is saying we are going to bankrupt almost every business in the country by creating lockdowns.I expect they will use the next £300 billion coming to pump direct into companies in some way.

 

DB. Guys

I have £26k sat in cash in my HL SIPP account.

 

Going all in tomorrow.

Where would you allocate the cash, which shares and how much in on each allocation.

I've never held shares in my life.

 

Appreciate any guidance as I feel this is my once in a lifetime buying opportunity. 

[Cosmic]

2 minutes ago, Panda said:

DB. Guys

I have £26k sat in cash in my HL SIPP account.

 

Going all in tomorrow.

Where would you allocate the cash, which shares and how much in on each allocation.

I've never held shares in my life.

 

Appreciate any guidance as I feel this is my once in a lifetime buying opportunity. 

Black! No red! Wait... black!

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Panda said:

DB. Guys

I have £26k sat in cash in my HL SIPP account.

 

Going all in tomorrow.

Where would you allocate the cash, which shares and how much in on each allocation.

I've never held shares in my life.

 

Appreciate any guidance as I feel this is my once in a lifetime buying opportunity. 

My boring approach would be BP Shell SSE national grid and physical silver to start off with.

Very uninspired i admit.  I try not to get too clever for my own good.

[JREWING]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

My boring approach would be BP Shell SSE national grid and physical silver to start off with.

Very uninspired i admit.  I try not to get too clever for my own good.

Cheers

5 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Black! No red! Wait... black!

So wait a little longer.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I suppose everybody has heard the rumours of London being shut down on Friday, maybe the wrong thread to post it but rumours are only pharmacists and supermarkets to remain open, public transport to be shut down. Only a rumour mind.

I think a London total lock-down is extremely likely. Anyone who wants to not be trapped in London should make sure they are out by close of play on Friday.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

 

Hands UP how many here thought the markets would get this horrendously brutal?!

SO...here's some YRS dry humor for ya's...just to get us all thought to the next cycle...

47 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

 Gas seems has benefited from the oil slump.

Hmm...CNA at an all time low of 38p!

 

11 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Can anyone explain why Go Ahead Group have been absolutely spanked this week, down 68% in a week! 

That's cos I bought 'em yesterday at £6.10 ...today they hit around 4 quid!

Saw national express hit 69p today, but i didn't buy ...BET that was the BOTTOM!

BTW, just checked my HL acc, the portfolio had a -26% hair-cut...still NOT to WORRY as I'll be cutting my own hair-cut in the morning making a 14 quid saving ...PLUS not having to worry about CV if i had to go to the barbers!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

15 minutes ago, Panda said:

DB. Guys

I have £26k sat in cash in my HL SIPP account.

 

Going all in tomorrow.

Where would you allocate the cash, which shares and how much in on each allocation.

I've never held shares in my life.

 

Appreciate any guidance as I feel this is my once in a lifetime buying opportunity. 

FFS...DON'T ASK ME!!!

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

I think a London total lock-down is extremely likely. Anyone who wants to not be trapped in London should make sure they are out by close of play on Friday.

I think thats very likely too.The key to this whole thing i think is seeing cases turn lower in Italy and Spain etc.The funny thing is my partner was very ill in Jan and seemed like a bad chest infection,i was bad a week later,not as bad as her,but like a flu.You start to think to yourself have i already had this thing,was it all over the UK by then but not picked up.Who knows.It could be half the population has already had it.