Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, kibuc said:

EU plug = pain.

not if you're in France......having completely rewired my hideout I hate UK leccy stuff with a passion now.......

Nuclear power for the win! De Gaulle knew what he was doing...

[StrugglingMillennial]

Question, whats going on with the BT pricing on HL.

The sell price is much higher than the buy price, it says about a variety of reasons and then lists them but why would any of these cause it?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, StrugglingMillennial said:

Question, whats going on with the BT pricing on HL.

The sell price is much higher than the buy price, it says about a variety of reasons and then lists them but why would any of these cause it?

Often goes haywire soon after close. Should be ok later.

[TMM]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Agreed,I think a stash of silver/gold will do nicely versus housing.3 bed semi in Leicester costs £300k.....quite simply I have better things to do with our money,that leaves us far more options such as living abroad off divis'.

Hello Sancho

I've been following this thread here and on TOS since the beginning (thanks to DB and all you peeps for sharing your insight/ideas and thanks to Yellow_Reduced_Sticker for the amusement factor!). I still haven't been brave enough to buy shares yet. Can I ask, what sort of annual income, would you like to think £300k divis would provide? Thank you.

[Popuplights]

58 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

not if you're in France......having completely rewired my hideout I hate UK leccy stuff with a passion now.......

Nuclear power for the win! De Gaulle knew what he was doing...

Because those pizzas taste better when cooked with that Nuclear Electricity!!

[Cosmic]

20 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah absolutely.I think if you can borrow at 2% and run a portfolio of oilies alongside at recentish prices,you'll do nicely.

Probably not the sort of punt for your average mortgagor though,but a few on ehre would likely run the numebrs nad have a bash.

Interesting to see this thought come up. I've been having the same thoughts looking at Barclays 7/10 year fixed.

I believe I've made a mistake paying off my fairly small mortgage early. Now I'm thinking of remortgaging, to 40-50% LTV which is only 50k and <1x household ... and shoving this in to a standalone portfolio.

I'd set the term to the end of the fix anyway, and pay it off as normal, so in 7/10 years time that portfolio would be 'paid for'.

Possibly crazy thoughts, but those rates are soo low...

[Bobthebuilder]

22 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Interesting to see this thought come up. I've been having the same thoughts looking at Barclays 7/10 year fixed.

I believe I've made a mistake paying off my fairly small mortgage early. Now I'm thinking of remortgaging, to 40-50% LTV which is only 50k and <1x household ... and shoving this in to a standalone portfolio.

I'd set the term to the end of the fix anyway, and pay it off as normal, so in 7/10 years time that portfolio would be 'paid for'.

Possibly crazy thoughts, but those rates are soo low...

It's a thought. I have an offset mortgage with 48k out standing (fully offset). Might be worth it to fix in.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

having completely rewired my hideout I hate UK leccy stuff with a passion now.......

I have noticed a lot of electrical goods sold in the UK these days have a plastic earth pin on the plug, so just live and neutral anyway.

[leonardratso]

26 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have noticed a lot of electrical goods sold in the UK these days have a plastic earth pin on the plug, so just live and neutral anyway.

wot breaks off lovely in the socket leaving the live+neutral gates open for toddlers to shove forks in.

[Bobthebuilder]

My RM are up a decent amount along with some others we don't discuss on here such as Tesco. I am thinking of selling a few of these and getting a bit more Standard Life Aberdeen. It's held well this year and one of my best divi payers, I like it.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Interesting to see this thought come up. I've been having the same thoughts looking at Barclays 7/10 year fixed.

I believe I've made a mistake paying off my fairly small mortgage early. Now I'm thinking of remortgaging, to 40-50% LTV which is only 50k and <1x household ... and shoving this in to a standalone portfolio.

I'd set the term to the end of the fix anyway, and pay it off as normal, so in 7/10 years time that portfolio would be 'paid for'.

Possibly crazy thoughts, but those rates are soo low...

I paid mine off with the divis from BAT mostly.You could do similar,use all divis to pay down the mortgage and just see where your at after 7 years.I wouldnt usually even consider it,but 1x on a fix with over payments allowed is different.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats a bargain for the Ferrari even if that green colour is a bit iffy  i got some RM right at the bottom and iv actually sold that ladder as im finally well up on the entire holding.Stop complaining,you filled your boots on the oilies at the lows.

Only really the transports and the Scottish share im bleeding heavy on now.Imperial blazing a trail as well today if i still smoked id be having a Lambert and Butler to celebrate.

 

Yes that 'Dirty Devil' that is IMB finally popped its head into the green to make a 'full house' today :-)

[CVG]

4 hours ago, TMM said:

Hello Sancho

I've been following this thread here and on TOS since the beginning (thanks to DB and all you peeps for sharing your insight/ideas and thanks to Yellow_Reduced_Sticker for the amusement factor!). I still haven't been brave enough to buy shares yet. Can I ask, what sort of annual income, would you like to think £300k divis would provide? Thank you.

Not directed to me, but I'd be hoping to get at least 5% per annum, e.g. about £15,000.

[CVG]

^

From my currrent purchases and at current div rates, I'm on a total 5.83% varying between 0% (BT) and 10.5% (IMB). I'd hope to see that increase over time as BT reinstates its div and Oilies increase. However, I have to accept some shocks are possible such as the cuts experienced earlier this year.

[Paulie]

How does talk of oil divs square with moves to ban internal combustion by 2030? Demand destruction surely? Or are we expecting UK will be out on a limb here? 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

^

From my currrent purchases and at current div rates, I'm on a total 5.83% varying between 0% (BT) and 10.5% (IMB). I'd hope to see that increase over time as BT reinstates its div and Oilies increase. However, I have to accept some shocks are possible such as the cuts experienced earlier this year.

I think this is the point, now many have `got away` with reducing (or cancelling) the divis this time; even the `holy grail` that is the oilies, I think they will be more willing to do the same in the future....I now look on divis as a bonus, not a given.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Paulie said:

How does talk of oil divs square with moves to ban internal combustion by 2030? Demand destruction surely? Or are we expecting UK will be out on a limb here? 

Basically same as the smoking ban and BAT ATH decade later via demand from the 3rd world. The west will further box themselves into there own political agenda whilst China (as well as India) does what the fuck it likes as it’s the worlds manufacturer. Peak oil is some way off for them and by then the big oil companies will have muscled out the competition into hydrogen.

[Paulie]

4 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

Basically same as the smoking ban and BAT ATH decade later via demand from the 3rd world. The west will further box themselves into there own political agenda whilst China (as well as India) does what the fuck it likes as it’s the worlds manufacturer. Peak oil is some way off for them.

Danger is domiciled in West they need to pander to net zero, wasting profit on tree planting. Also ethical fund focus will lower institutional share demand. For this trade there are headwinds to consider.... 

[CVG]

1 hour ago, Paulie said:

How does talk of oil divs square with moves to ban internal combustion by 2030? Demand destruction surely? Or are we expecting UK will be out on a limb here? 

You should read the last 10 pages of this thread for your answer. What the UK does with ICE in 2030 is almost meaningless in the scheme of things.

[spygirl]

13 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Interesting to see this thought come up. I've been having the same thoughts looking at Barclays 7/10 year fixed.

I believe I've made a mistake paying off my fairly small mortgage early. Now I'm thinking of remortgaging, to 40-50% LTV which is only 50k and <1x household ... and shoving this in to a standalone portfolio.

I'd set the term to the end of the fix anyway, and pay it off as normal, so in 7/10 years time that portfolio would be 'paid for'.

Possibly crazy thoughts, but those rates are soo low...

Theres no mistake in paying off mortgage debt, as long as it doest cost you money i.e.

Days of tax relief are long gone.

Clearing  down debt, so repayments are a small part of your monthly outgoing is a good thing.

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

1 hour ago, Paulie said:

How does talk of oil divs square with moves to ban internal combustion by 2030? Demand destruction surely? Or are we expecting UK will be out on a limb here? 

Who knows but its the ban of NEW cars there will still be many people driving around in old petrol and diesels most will probably buy a new car just before the ban and keep it for 5-10 years depending on taxes and costs

 

On the radio this morning some twat said we will have 7 charge points for every electric car by then i just can't see it myself

[Hardhat]

1 hour ago, Paulie said:

wasting profit on tree planting

Hardly a waste imo, invest in forestry 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Who knows but its the ban of NEW cars there will still be many people driving around in old petrol and diesels most will probably buy a new car just before the ban and keep it for 5-10 years depending on taxes and costs

 

On the radio this morning some twat said we will have 7 charge points for every electric car by then i just can't see it myself

How will the Millennials and Gen Zers charge their cars exactly, living in their indebted slave boxes with no space or parking? 

Car ownership won’t be a ‘thing’. Socially time shared electric vehicles will be the future, especially with the maturation of driverless vehicles.

[DoINeedOne]

 

[jamtomorrow]

40 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Did anyone tell Boris that most of the current UK nuclear fleet is due to shut by 2030, and Hinkley C won't offset it all? They will blow out the grid with rolling blackouts unless they not only replace this baseload but massively increase it. The only way to do this quickly (because they will prevaricate to the last minute) are gas fired power plants. Which comes back to @DurhamBorns point: we are not going to be the only country needing a ton of gas. What should have gone hand in hand with this announcement was a long term LNG contract with Qatar, but bad optics on that, right? 

So it's either rolling blackouts, very expensive electricity as we scrsbble for gas and wait for nuclear to be built, or buy a reliable IC car clise to 2030. That'll be a good business to be in.

My old man had a side hustle in the 70s sourcing diesel engines from the Netherlands to Ireland, because of some kind of ban, I can't remember what it was. But there'll be a lot of that. History rhymes...

Some signs that Boris starting to notice the coming energy crisis in the brief interludes between self-inflicted drownings: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54867442

Tells you something when "Hail Mary" might become policy -

"Although many energy industry experts remain sceptical that small nuclear reactors can play a significant role, the BBC understands that the government has big ambitions to progress this technology, and that it will form an important part of the government's long term plans."