Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

26 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

And to think i bought 10 Bitcoins at $100 each years back

Then sold them at $130 because it was pissing me off for some reason, still makes me laugh when people say but you would had XYZ i very much doubt i would be still holding today as i didn't understand it 

 

But just think of all the people who had bitcoins back then but lost access to there computers an wallets 

 

And then apparently there was this guy wonder how he is feeling today every time he has a pizza

currently them 10,000 would be £278,000,000 but again doubt anyone would held till now 

This is why its the biggest ponzi scheme ever to hit planet earth.

From having to hunt out someone who'll make him a couple of pizzas, to becoming one of the richest people on the planet in 10 years is beyond absurd.

Esther Rantzen needs to call this one out.

[Loki]

DXY up today comparatively. Bit weird after the incidents yesterday and more likely $2000 stimulus money.  Is it a market psychology thing where the $2000 is interpreted as the US having confidence in its currency so money heads back into it?

I don't know, I'm just trying to think like a macro guy

[JMD]

39 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Hmmm... is the reflation thread becoming a Bitcoin thread a sell signal ... 

Hope not, but having said that... I still think the ideal (wealth preserving/sanity preserving) next-cycle portfolio 'thread-chat' should comprise equal allocations of pm's/oil/telecoms/corona!!

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bitcoin got to over £27,800 earlier this morning

bastard fuck shit.......must, not, watch, bitcoin, price 

[nirvana]

28 minutes ago, Loki said:

I don't know, I'm just trying to think like a macro guy

welcome to my world.....

[kibuc]

33 minutes ago, Loki said:

DXY up today comparatively. Bit weird after the incidents yesterday and more likely $2000 stimulus money.  Is it a market psychology thing where the $2000 is interpreted as the US having confidence in its currency so money heads back into it?

I don't know, I'm just trying to think like a macro guy

I think the very idea of macro implicates ignoring day-to-day or week-to-week noise

[Loki]

14 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I think the very idea of macro implicates ignoring day-to-day or week-to-week noise

True. A market/strategy guy then. I want to understand the movements

[JMD]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good post.

Won't be exiting my Bitcoin position any time soon though. I'm up 450%, so I must be mad, right? Especially since I had my hand trapped inside the coconut for at least 2 of the last 3 years - you'd think I'd be glad to pull it out.

Well that's one of things this community has helped me get clear in my head: a Bitcoin position might be better thought of as insurance, not investment, for the reason that success for Bitcoin will be *very* bad news for the fiat-denominated non-yielding parts of my permanent portfolio. The cash part will become worthless, and who knows how it will affect the PMs.

Looking at it that way, I can then interpret BTC price action as market perception of an insured event (the event in this case being hyperbitcoinization).

I'm happy with the price I paid for that insurance. I wouldn't be so happy with today's prices, and I certainly wouldn't want to be shopping for insurance during a market panic.

I'd also be quite happy to see BTC dwindle to zero. That would mean the market perceives the risk of hyperbitcoinization as zero. I doubt any of us curl up sobbing in the shower thinking about what we spent on home insurance every time we remember the house hasn't burnt down. This doesn't seem much different to me.

Jamtomorrow, I agree btc is an insurance/hedge on future money, and i neglected to mention any of that important stuff in my btc post. I also like the risk/speculation element. However, im not a big risk taker and so aim to trim some of my profits, 'de-risking' my investment in order to effectively give myself a free-ride (when/if personal price target is reached, which might be near future given recent price action). You say you dont see it as an investment, but if btc did turn out to be a ponzi scheme, absolutely no damage done. I view this as kinda like having jam-today and jam-tomorrow (excuse bad pun). You say you wont be exciting anytime soon, but have you considered doing this?

(i've always liked the analogy of 'a player taking chips off the table', as that for me describes an individual gaming/manipulating/controlling(?) 'the investment system' for their own maximum benefit)  

[Democorruptcy]

Are the governbankment expecting inflation and when it comes, want to fiddle the welfare cap figures? What else are the governbankment insisting the OBR lie about? In the technical note:

Quote

 

Defining the impact of changes in inflation

Intended effect 1.6

Most benefit rates and thresholds are uprated each year in line with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The intention is for the assessment and monitoring of the welfare cap to ignore the impact of any changes in the CPI inflation rates that are used for the annual uprating of rates and thresholds, compared to those assumed when the cap was set. It is not intended that the wider macroeconomic impacts of changes in inflation, such as changes to the income of welfare claimants, or the impacts of changes in other uprating assumptions be ignored. So, if unadjusted spending against the welfare cap rises by £2billion in a given year, and £0.5billion of this is due to higher inflationary uprating of benefit rates and thresholds, the OBR should report that spending against the Cap has only risen by £1.5billion.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/removing-the-impact-of-changes-in-inflation-from-the-welfare-cap?

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Are the governbankment expecting inflation and when it comes, want to fiddle the welfare cap figures? What else are the governbankment insisting the OBR lie about? In the technical note:

 

That sounds like they're intending on underreporting benefits spending rather than using inflation to cut it in real terms. The only figure to be reported would be the inflation adjusted figure. Why should the cap be rising more than CPI? The obvious answer is more claimants. So I suppose the per claimant spend could reduce whilst the overall spend rises above inflation.

It is fair to report it in inflation adjusted terms. It is possibly indicative of increased inflation expectations. Interesting that it needs to be stated.

[nirvana]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

btc is an insurance/hedge on future money

it's a 'diversified investment' that happens to be following the 'money flow' just like the stock market is.....

a hedge is 100% inversely correlated to the vulnerable asset

I can tell I'm not getting through, I'll just give up now 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's a 'diversified investment' that happens to be following the 'money flow' just like the stock market is.....

a hedge is 100% inversely correlated to the vulnerable asset

I can tell I'm not getting through, I'll just give up now 

The first hedge I ever used was a bet on Greece in the Final of Euro 2000 and something when I had Portugal in the work sweepstake.

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The first hedge I ever used was a bet on Greece in the Final of Euro 2000 and something when I had Portugal in the work sweepstake.

An ever better hedge is betting against England in any major football tournament cos you know the useless fuckers will lose eventually then at least you can console yourself with hookers, booze, whatever 

[Wheeler]

7 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's a 'diversified investment' that happens to be following the 'money flow' just like the stock market is.....

a hedge is 100% inversely correlated to the vulnerable asset

I can tell I'm not getting through, I'll just give up now 

It's a hedge against fiat collapsing, in a similar vein to gold. The main difference is that the price isn't being suppressed by the big players as there isn't much of a futures or paper market. 

I'm hoping that the rise of the bitcoin market cap will put pressure on the investment banks to let gold rise to counter it. 

Disclosure: I'm 5% in crypto, 12% fiat and 65% in gold and silver; the rest is in other reflation assets.

[jamtomorrow]

31 minutes ago, JMD said:

Jamtomorrow, I agree btc is an insurance/hedge on future money, and i neglected to mention any of that important stuff in my btc post. I also like the risk/speculation element. However, im not a big risk taker and so aim to trim some of my profits, 'de-risking' my investment in order to effectively give myself a free-ride (when/if personal price target is reached, which might be near future given recent price action). You say you dont see it as an investment, but if btc did turn out to be a ponzi scheme, absolutely no damage done. I view this as kinda like having jam-today and jam-tomorrow (excuse bad pun). You say you wont be exciting anytime soon, but have you considered doing this?

(i've always liked the analogy of 'a player taking chips off the table', as that for me describes an individual gaming/manipulating/controlling(?) 'the investment system' for their own maximum benefit)  

Back when I was thinking in investment terms, yes, definitely - plan was to start slicing once it got as big as PM allocation.

Not now though.

9 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's a 'diversified investment' that happens to be following the 'money flow' just like the stock market is.....

a hedge is 100% inversely correlated to the vulnerable asset

I can tell I'm not getting through, I'll just give up now

I hear ya, I just don't think we know yet whether that correlation holds for higher market caps (when reflexive effects become potentially much more important). But if you're saying you know for sure it will hold, that's great - you don't need insurance!

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I'm hoping that the rise of the bitcoin market cap will put pressure on the investment banks to let gold rise to counter it

k that's an interesting thought, any evidence that will happen?

To be fair Gold has been a shit 'investment' over the last 10 years cos yes dem nasty bankers control the price.....

It's an interesting trading tool cos you can often read where the fookers are gonna take the price 

[Noallegiance]

28 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I'm hoping that the rise of the bitcoin market cap will put pressure on the investment banks to let gold rise to counter it. 

Interesting theory from Mr Schiff today suggesting that Bitcoin taking the spotlight from gold does central banks a favour because they don't consider Bitcoin a threat. If Bitcoin keeps the real threat (gold) price down for a while then there's less indication that the monetary taps being smashed off the pipes is inflationary. 

Which, ironically and to the chagrin of 'BTC to end central banking' fans, would mean that a BTC bubble helps central bankers.

[nirvana]

24 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I hear ya, I just don't think we know yet whether that correlation holds for higher market caps (when reflexive effects become potentially much more important)

yeah it's interesting to think of bitcoin in terms of market cap, that implies it's an asset and not a currency....

In terms of currencies, Fiber or EURUSD is the most widely traded with a daily volume of 575 billion USD

AND interestingly Bitcoin has gone from 364 billion in November to 597 billion on Jan 2.......so it now surpasses Fiber and that will explain it's meteoric rise....hmmm interesting lol

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Which, ironically and to the chagrin of 'BTC to end central banking' fans, would mean that a BTC bubble helps central bankers.

Exactly, early believers like me used to fly 'End the FED' flags, nowadays your average shitcoin investor looks like this

 

[Talking Monkey]

13 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

yeah it's interesting to think of bitcoin in terms of market cap, that implies it's an asset and not a currency....

In terms of currencies, Fiber or EURUSD is the most widely traded with a daily volume of 575 billion USD

AND interestingly Bitcoin has gone from 364 billion in November to 597 billion on Jan 2.......so it now surpasses Fiber and that will explain it's meteoric rise....hmmm interesting lol

But would bitcoin market cap equate to eurusd daily volume aren't they two different things. What's the daily volume on bitcoin. Also bitcoin market cap is actually lower than that epic piece of shit bubble stock Tesla

[Wheeler]

59 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

k that's an interesting thought, any evidence that will happen?

To be fair Gold has been a shit 'investment' over the last 10 years cos yes dem nasty bankers control the price.....

It's an interesting trading tool cos you can often read where the fookers are gonna take the price 

I can't claim it as an original thought, but then who can for anything discussed? I've been racking my brain over where I heard or read about it and can now credit Luke Gromen with the idea:

Should be keyed up to the macro part discussing gold and bitcoin.

 

[nirvana]

22 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

But would bitcoin market cap equate to eurusd daily volume aren't they two different things. What's the daily volume on bitcoin

yeah that's what I was trying to say.....they're 2 different things, 'shitcoins' ain't coins and ain't currencies...they're more like Gold......you can't spend em over the counter you need to exchange em.....daily volume dunno, I'm trying to ignore it tbh 

Anyway listening to that Schiffy on youtube and interestingly he says that the market spiked higher yesterday cos as soon as Mr Market knew the Democrats had won, it realised The FED would be printing EVEN MORE MONEY!!!!

KERCHING for stonks!!

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Interesting theory from Mr Schiff today suggesting that Bitcoin taking the spotlight from gold

good find there fella, what's even more interesting is he says proper 'Hedge Funds' are actually 'playing' their bitcoin clients cos they'll take 20% off em even when it all turns to shit 

Right no more shitcoin talk in this thread chaps, now behave! 

[DoINeedOne]

Small and medium sized businesses are being especially hard hit by the continual lockdowns, so Vodafone UK is smart to push the boat out for them.

The press release talks of giving small businesses free broadband for 2021. While this is technically true, it only comes if they commit to a three year broadband contract, the first year of which they don’t get charged for. That’s still a decent deal and will presumably come in handy for those many businesses struggling to pay their bills in this unique time.

 

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Small and medium sized businesses are being especially hard hit by the continual lockdowns, so Vodafone UK is smart to push the boat out for them.

The press release talks of giving small businesses free broadband for 2021. While this is technically true, it only comes if they commit to a three year broadband contract, the first year of which they don’t get charged for. That’s still a decent deal and will presumably come in handy for those many businesses struggling to pay their bills in this unique time.

 

Then boom, push the inflation cost on to a captive customer for 24 months. Giveth, taketh away!