Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BurntBread]

Not that it's of much interest, as I'm a complete newbie this year, but here's where I am:

I have somewhat more than 50% of my money in (mostly) re-flation stocks, in the sectors of oil, commodity miners, telcoms infrastructure, PM miners, energy and transports; but also some industrials, and a little consumer. Fairly diversified, but definitely too much in oil for a long-term portfolio. The rest is in cash, waiting for opportunity, or maybe for a deposit on a house, if they become good value.

I'm buying one last slice of oil today, and I then need to have the discipline to sit on my hands, waiting for a possible market crash later in the year. I'll keep my itchy fingers busy by doing some very basic analysis on stocks I would be interested in buying after a crash ... trying to get a view on buying targets and prices. The hope is to build out a more balanced portfolio after the crash.

As I've said before, I don't plan to sell anything, and so if there is a big kahuna, I need to have the psychological resilience to just hold on, and to believe that, despite losses, I mostly bought in at prices I'm happy with. It will be a nail-biting ride, but like a roller-coaster, my strategy is just to try to stay in the seat and not do anything.

Thank you to everyone who has helped me get to the point where I have a view about the future, and a strategy to ride it out. The losses are all mine, but I would be very happy to pay out some of any gains, in beer, at a future meet-up.

Good luck to everybody for what looks set to be a trying year!

[The Idiocrat]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been on mechanic duty Harley,my heavy duty jump leads and my 15 year old Peugeot have had to fire up my daughter and a few neighbours cars.Iv changed the battery on my daughters and iv changed the coil pack and plugs on my sons partners.Loads of snow up here.My old girl even took 3 turns todays to start,her crank is starting to get a bit sticky,il flush all the oil out in spring,get her filled with some quality oil.

Im also making lots of home make pies today,corned beef and chicken.

Potash has doubled,trebled and more for us now.Telcos have ran up lovely.I think some like BT will consolidate for a while,oilies should continue higher though.Im thinking of jacking in work as well soon.Spend more time on the macro stuff.Maybe we should form a consultancy and pimp ourselves to big companies to provide them a macro road map for their business.Id be interested if anyone wanted to build us a website and do the plugging.

Thread has really come good,and i hope people have done very well out of it.Lots of danger ahead though and we need to be careful here we dont rejoice in our success and become mugs.

If oil over shoots into the $70s+ range that could trigger a BK.The CBs are still printing and im seeing inflation at 3% mid year,my roadmap is showing likely CB QE stops soon after with a few more smaller tranches.Here in the UK the BOE will have to stop by October at the latest.Government will have a big structural deficit still then.

 

I might be interested DB, I'll drop you a PM.

[DurhamBorn]

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.These figures are based on my nominal targets not inflation adjusted etc and are taken out to 2050 because thats the net zero target.

Gas will treble in value use and will pass oil in market size,given its only a third of the size now thats a big increase.Oil will fall by 12% but thats much later in the cycle.Plastics doubling will make up for the oil falls being small.

Wind will grow to about 1/3 of gas and 1/3 of oil and wind and solar together will account for around 1/4 of oil and gas use.Blue hydrogen will become huge,maybe 40% the size of gas and 40% of oil,making up some of that big increase in gas use.Carbon capture will be a big winner in this.

Green hydrogen will remain small and a niche area,mostly in Europe.

LNG will becom a third of the gas market roughly.

A big winner in the energy space will be supercapacitor companies.However i havent decided yet how to and what to invest in,something for the thread it maybe look at.

 

[dnb24]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.These figures are based on my nominal targets not inflation adjusted etc and are taken out to 2050 because thats the net zero target.

Gas will treble in value use and will pass oil in market size,given its only a third of the size now thats a big increase.Oil will fall by 12% but thats much later in the cycle.Plastics doubling will make up for the oil falls being small.

Wind will grow to about 1/3 of gas and 1/3 of oil and wind and solar together will account for around 1/4 of oil and gas use.Blue hydrogen will become huge,maybe 40% the size of gas and 40% of oil,making up some of that big increase in gas use.Carbon capture will be a big winner in this.

Green hydrogen will remain small and a niche area,mostly in Europe.

LNG will becom a third of the gas market roughly.

A big winner in the energy space will be supercapacitor companies.However i havent decided yet how to and what to invest in,something for the thread it maybe look at.

 

Muratas have been acquired by CAP-XX- both seem big in Supercap development.

Evans capacitor have contracts with Northrop Grumman 

Maxwells UC has been integrated into Tesla as well as Zhejiang Geely group. 

Skeleton technology supply Kodak, wrights group, brush traction. Skeleton also work with MJR.

Panasonic also

[RJT1979]

What do people think of cheniere lng?

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Il have to correct you there DB - if you take into account vehicles, which are >95% ICE, then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

 

[Craig]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.These figures are based on my nominal targets not inflation adjusted etc and are taken out to 2050 because thats the net zero target.

Gas will treble in value use and will pass oil in market size,given its only a third of the size now thats a big increase.Oil will fall by 12% but thats much later in the cycle.Plastics doubling will make up for the oil falls being small.

Wind will grow to about 1/3 of gas and 1/3 of oil and wind and solar together will account for around 1/4 of oil and gas use.Blue hydrogen will become huge,maybe 40% the size of gas and 40% of oil,making up some of that big increase in gas use.Carbon capture will be a big winner in this.

Green hydrogen will remain small and a niche area,mostly in Europe.

LNG will becom a third of the gas market roughly.

A big winner in the energy space will be supercapacitor companies.However i havent decided yet how to and what to invest in,something for the thread it maybe look at.

 

Good shout on the Aldi passata. Great stuff!

[StrugglingMillennial]

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fn3ocortex%2Fstatus%2F1346145319575310337&widget=Tweet

Interesting tweet about previous bitcoin price run ups, im starting to think that bitcoin could end up popping shortly before the BK

[Agent ZigZag]

Im glad that gold is off everyones radar and is keeping quiet. It is fascinating watching and learning how weak hands leave a position and are chasing Bitcoin. I have just added to Sibanye and Harmony my two favourites as a short term trade to make some extra cash.

I should post in the Investment section - Retire early, and I will do so in due course to give feed back on how my retirement is going. So far it is great and I highly recommend it. 

 I was unable to take advantage on the falls in March 2020 due to lack of funds for my SIPP so well done to everyone who made good. What I am most pleased with overall , and whilst capital growth has been a bonus, it is is the dividend returns. For me this is number one. These cover all of my expenses and as long as they continue to do so then I am more than happy. .

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Il have to correct you there DB - if you take into account vehicles, which are >95% ICE, then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

 

Well quite,because if all cars went EV today gas would be providing all that electric because however many wind turbines there isnt enough wind.

[DoINeedOne]

14 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Im glad that gold is off everyones radar and is keeping quiet. It is fascinating watching and learning how weak hands leave a position and are chasing Bitcoin. I have just added to Sibanye and Harmony my two favourites as a short term trade to make some extra cash.

I should post in the Investment section - Retire early, and I will do so in due course to give feed back on how my retirement is going. So far it is great and I highly recommend it. 

 I was unable to take advantage on the falls in March 2020 due to lack of funds for my SIPP so well done to everyone who made good. What I am most pleased with overall , and whilst capital growth has been a bonus, it is is the dividend returns. For me this is number one. These cover all of my expenses and as long as they continue to do so then I am more than happy. .

My thoughts exactly if money keeps chasing Crypto hopefully i can grab some more physical and miners cheaper, I only hold one miner currently as sold the rest whilst my physical i doubt i will sell for many years

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Im glad that gold is off everyones radar and is keeping quiet. It is fascinating watching and learning how weak hands leave a position and are chasing Bitcoin. I have just added to Sibanye and Harmony my two favourites as a short term trade to make some extra cash.

I should post in the Investment section - Retire early, and I will do so in due course to give feed back on how my retirement is going. So far it is great and I highly recommend it. 

 I was unable to take advantage on the falls in March 2020 due to lack of funds for my SIPP so well done to everyone who made good. What I am most pleased with overall , and whilst capital growth has been a bonus, it is is the dividend returns. For me this is number one. These cover all of my expenses and as long as they continue to do so then I am more than happy. .

Harmony are the best deep gold miners in the world.Superb company,and fantastic leadership.The also now own most of the gold in South Africa and most of the Uranium.Them and Sibanye of course.

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Il have to correct you there DB - if you take into account vehicles, which are >95% ICE, then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

 

And the majority of domestic heating is still gas I believe. Gridwatch only covers the electricity supply so things are even better for the old fossil fuels.

[Erewhon888]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.

Quote

Erik and Art discuss:

• Saudi Arabia’s production cut decision and what this means
• Will U.S. shale industry recover?
• Expected decline in demand in oil
• Analysis of current comparative inventory report
• Pandemic and U.S. consumption recovery – what does this mean for gasoline?
• Perspectives on previous prediction of a big decline in U.S. production in Q1
• Can OPEC compensate for loss of U.S. production?
• Lag times between getting the rig started to actual oil production and what this means
• Price vs. Comparative inventory yield curve

https://www.macrovoices.com/

[Errol]

Are you buying the US listing for Harmony?

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Errol said:

Are you buying the US listing for Harmony?

I always have Errol yes.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, Errol said:

Are you buying the US listing for Harmony?

BTFD on this latest Gold dump???

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

And you're getting 4% from the Froggies at the moment....Allez les Bleus 

Haha that's only 2% behind wind, so much for BloJO and his wind plans 

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I did, but I have shorts covering the drop too

interesting strategy, you shorting short term with options?

haha I used to read that market ear stuff too, don't seem to be enough hours in the day now 

[Talking Monkey]

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Harmony are the best deep gold miners in the world.Superb company,and fantastic leadership.The also now own most of the gold in South Africa and most of the Uranium.Them and Sibanye of course.

On harmony DB, in the medium term say 5 to 7 year horizon do you see any potential outsized political risk, I prefer to be cautious on position size when I perceive potential political risk, was wondering if I'm being overly cautious 

[nirvana]

BREAKING NEWS (no surprise though)

*NY FED PURCHASES $12.801B IN TREASURY COUPONS

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

On harmony DB, in the medium term say 5 to 7 year horizon do you see any potential outsized political risk, I prefer to be cautious on position size when I perceive potential political risk, was wondering if I'm being overly cautious 

I sold Sibanye because i was cautious on having too much capital at the mercy of South African politicians and kept Hrmony instead.It would of made me around £30k if id kept it.Was i right to be cautious or wrong.Wrong at the moment,but could be right in a few  hours if something happened.Its a very tricky thing to get right.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

BREAKING NEWS (no surprise though)

*NY FED PURCHASES $12.801B IN TREASURY COUPONS

 

Bit low those purchases were they at the short end OCD or across the curve?.Short end would say they are getting close to the end of printing ,at least in their minds.

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bit low those purchases were they at the short end OCD or across the curve?.Short end would say they are getting close to the end of printing ,at least in their minds.

saw it on twatter, some geezer said it should have been $128B lol

FED Clarida is on the wires too talking like a turkey re Bond purchases and some other geezer was 'talking like a turkey' too lol

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-harker-says-qe-tapering-may-begin-late-2021-goldman-says-not-so-fast

*CLARIDA: CAN BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE WE THINK ABOUT TAPERING

[Chewing Grass]

16 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

BREAKING NEWS (no surprise though)

*NY FED PURCHASES $12.801B IN TREASURY COUPONS

 

You've just reminded me of this classic from 8 years ago.