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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


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Loki
4 hours ago, Majorpain said:

 

First miner has broken ranks, for those who hold Endeavor they are keeping hold of 0.5M oz of AG as a bet prices are going to go higher.  Another nail in the coffin of the Comex.

Wow!

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Just wanted to wish everyone a happy xmas and for all adding their thoughts and knowledge to the thread this year.I think we can safely say without any doubt the thread has proved itself and a lot of

Exactly,my portfolio hit a record today,really really pleased how things have gone for people on here.A few mistakes along the way,but a lot of work from people has really shown through.I think we are

This was one of the main factors behind me leaving the prison service.    I joined in 2003 and I learned the ropes from ex squaddies and NCOs, every prison was staffed by around 80% ex force

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Castlevania
41 minutes ago, Loki said:

Availability issues or oblivious buyer?

You can’t get a new one due to chip shortages. Two years old and 30k on the clock. Madness.

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Fully Detached

Over the last few years I've been almost subconsciously buying up "things" that I want/need, but which I thought might suddenly become expensive in the future, e.g. power tools, router table, garden furniture, even my coffee roaster and grinder/espresso machine. I've sold a few things recently for more than I paid for them, and been amazed at valuations of some other things yet to be sold.

A couple of weeks ago I sold my PCP jag back to the dealer a year earlier than the contract. Originally they told me 3-5k to send it back early. Last summer they told me 1-2k, then this year they said 500-1k, depending on condition. Went to another dealer who agreed to take it and clear the remaining finance at zero cost to me - despite the dent I put in the back when I reversed it into a massive transit van (cue "It's not a fucking packet of peanuts, Tyrone" jokes).

I am happy to report that I have lost my taste for consumerist "things", Chinese tat, and dodgy Indian motors.

 

50 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Majestic Wine is out of many ranges, due to a major wine importer going down, I am told due to shipping costs.

This, however, is a bad thing.

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DurhamBorn
3 hours ago, Loki said:

Thanks mate, I'm way out of my depth with stuff like Brazilian telcos so it's good to know inflation should still be fine for potash, I thought it would be but then I'm not the genius with the massive cork board :D

Telefonica SA Brazil ADR and TIM SA ADR are the two to concentrate on ,not buying advice etc.Tickers VIV and TIMB

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Cattle Prod

Great inflation anecdotals there all, very useful. But reading them, doesn't it make you immediately think "shit I need to go and buy xyz pronto". It's like fomo, I have thousands of pounds of timber to buy. I've just been stung at least 25% not doing it sooner. Just like getting into your favourite stock too late.

Which is the behavioural component of inflation refd by Erik on macrovoices recently. What happens when we all decide to exchange our depreciating money for appreciating goods? Collective society has been shown again and again to subconsciously act en masse, like birthrates dropping before recessions.

Bring it on, I'm hedged. 

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Loki
25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telefonica SA Brazil ADR and TIM SA ADR are the two to concentrate on ,not buying advice etc.Tickers VIV and TIMB

Thanks for sharing that mate, appreciated

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Loki
6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

doesn't it make you immediately think "shit I need to go and buy xyz pronto".

Yup. Tools for me, and plenty others on here i bet

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Chewing Grass
4 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

If you need a new car there’s at least 10,000 in Avonmouth Docks parked up next to the M5.  I’m sure most of them haven’t moved for months....

I've just had a look its beyond comprehension, two snapshots and that's not all of them.

1815886435_Screenshotfrom2021-04-0822-20-05.thumb.jpg.56cceee0aa2922e03836cab8f0065559.jpg

2005301196_Screenshotfrom2021-04-0822-15-26.thumb.jpg.0b7c68e140f89f9255df508eba698d1c.jpg

 

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Barnsey
59 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Great inflation anecdotals there all, very useful. But reading them, doesn't it make you immediately think "shit I need to go and buy xyz pronto". It's like fomo, I have thousands of pounds of timber to buy. I've just been stung at least 25% not doing it sooner. Just like getting into your favourite stock too late.

Which is the behavioural component of inflation refd by Erik on macrovoices recently. What happens when we all decide to exchange our depreciating money for appreciating goods? Collective society has been shown again and again to subconsciously act en masse, like birthrates dropping before recessions.

Bring it on, I'm hedged. 

True inflation is exactly this.

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Cattle Prod
22 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Nosebleed levels, we cant be far off DH's 80% drop timewise now.

We are within 10% of his 4500 spy call, and for macro, thats as good as. Just stunning, and I didn't believe it myself given how inflated stocks were a thousand points ago. Then I was reading Stanley Druckenmillers Lost Tree Club speech: exactly same message as DH and DB: its the Fed and liquidity, the rest is noise. I want to know what these guys know. I suspect a guy with $5bn can't be bribed, but maybe I can tempt DB with spare parts for his Ferrari (oven)?

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Harley
8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Harley do you have a list of worldwide withholding tax.I think Brazil is 0%

Doesn't look like there is a WHT on dividendshttps://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/0-518-9826?contextData=(sc.Default)&transitionType=Default&firstPage=true.  The UK does not seem to have a comprehensive Double Tax Treaty with Brazil, except for a few specialist things like Aircrew, etc.

 

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stokiescum
6 hours ago, Loki said:

Yes I can understand collectable and classics going up.  I thought I heard somewhere what the whole used car market was doing well but that's harder to understand with the electric push.   Unless it's because people are putting off buying a brand new petrol or diesel I guess.

Well 2 years of no holidays no pubs no meals out no nothing and even I could see how even those earning say 80k a year has a couple could have money to waste on a classic car .fuck overpaying the mortgage spunk it on a car 

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nirvana
9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Shouldnt mention prawns as @nirvana sometimes talks to them

not as much as I talk to my bikes! Got a beauty for 50€. She's called Rita and she's in the hareem now xD

Gonna stick an electric motor on her and I'll be bombing it for the baguette even when it's -4 outside

Cars, pah! :P

And bollocks to the speed limits :Jumping:

48V 750W Bafang Mid Drive Motor

Feature:

1.It's the newest version has two plugs for gear shift sensor and 6V light.

 2. 25 amp upgraded IRFB3077 mosfets controller (up to 1300 watt with 52 volt battery)

  

IMG_20210408_160339 (copy 1).jpg

Edited by nirvana
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JimmyTheBruce
9 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I've just had a look its beyond comprehension, two snapshots and that's not all of them.

1815886435_Screenshotfrom2021-04-0822-20-05.thumb.jpg.56cceee0aa2922e03836cab8f0065559.jpg

2005301196_Screenshotfrom2021-04-0822-15-26.thumb.jpg.0b7c68e140f89f9255df508eba698d1c.jpg

 

This is the bit I don't understand.  Whilst I'm aware there's a shortage of chips which is affecting the supply of new cars, there's obviously still a few cars available.  In the same vein, whilst some areas have been disrupted by lockdown etc, others have carried on regardless.  So, for example, with regards to the comments on timber prices, I assume we've still been merrily chopping trees down, masks or not.

So what is driving prices up across the board so quickly?  Is it physical shortage, excess demand (FOMO), or pent up demand (free cash from the magic money tree)?  Or are suppliers seeing the amount of money being printed and raising prices accordingly?  Or does it come back to the common theme on this thread about energy inputs; the guy chopping the trees down still needs fuel in his chainsaw.  Or is it just a perfect storm of all of those things?

Given what I've just been quoted for a kitchen floor, I'm certainly not denying it's happening, just pontificating really.

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Talking Monkey
9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

We are within 10% of his 4500 spy call, and for macro, thats as good as. Just stunning, and I didn't believe it myself given how inflated stocks were a thousand points ago. Then I was reading Stanley Druckenmillers Lost Tree Club speech: exactly same message as DH and DB: its the Fed and liquidity, the rest is noise. I want to know what these guys know. I suspect a guy with $5bn can't be bribed, but maybe I can tempt DB with spare parts for his Ferrari (oven)?

I was thinking the same last night CP how close to his original 4500 call we now are, it's nuts. One hell of a call when you think he was sticking with it even in the capitulation days the markets saw in March last year.

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Vendetta
1 hour ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

This is the bit I don't understand.  Whilst I'm aware there's a shortage of chips which is affecting the supply of new cars, there's obviously still a few cars available.  In the same vein, whilst some areas have been disrupted by lockdown etc, others have carried on regardless.  So, for example, with regards to the comments on timber prices, I assume we've still been merrily chopping trees down, masks or not.

So what is driving prices up across the board so quickly?  Is it physical shortage, excess demand (FOMO), or pent up demand (free cash from the magic money tree)?  Or are suppliers seeing the amount of money being printed and raising prices accordingly?  Or does it come back to the common theme on this thread about energy inputs; the guy chopping the trees down still needs fuel in his chainsaw.  Or is it just a perfect storm of all of those things?

Given what I've just been quoted for a kitchen floor, I'm certainly not denying it's happening, just pontificating really.

1. Certainly demand is a key factor.

I am seeing huge demand for home renovation, building projects, home and garden furnishings etc. 
A simple tour around the local residents reveals work van after work van everywhere doing home and garden builds etc.

Certainly in the U.K. you have a huge amount of people sat at home getting paid 80-100% of salary and their overheads have fallen dramatically. Spend spend spend is what they want to do with all this ‘spare cash’.

2. Speculation: as commodity prices have gone up more people have speculated on this rise and ergo it continues. Feeding back on itself.

As demand has risen and cost prices have risen the price rise inflation phenomenon feeds itself. 
 

The BIG question is: “When is the bust coming?”. This year.... next .... or not for many years....? 

 

Edited by Vendetta
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Harley
11 hours ago, Loki said:

Yup. Tools for me, and plenty others on here i bet

I don't think I can fit any more in! Already had to build more stores!  Plus we've got most of what we prepped for back in Feb20 food, etc wise in steel cupboards we bought back then and three small freezers (one back up warm store) to keep the mice out, all in a refurbished out house with a backup petrol/lpg genny.  Boy, have we been busy this last year! Then there's the pile of stuff for the dump I'm slowly repurposing just like Scrapheap Challenge.  Five more large outdoor stores to build, a specialist trailer to weld up from scrap metal and spare wheels, more electronics to strip down and reuse, and things I haven't even thought of yet.  TBH, I'm a p*g in sh*t atm!

PS:  Home brew a must!

PPS:  Currently buying loads of £12 bins with secure lids for outdoor storage.

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geordie_lurch

The following image from this Zerohedge article about a $1 display chip is causing supply chain chaos is a good overview of what the world is apparently short of even if it is USA focussed as it's from Goldman Sachs...

 

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/shortage%20everyhthing_1.jpg?itok=frv0RLDb

Edited by geordie_lurch
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Harley
3 hours ago, nirvana said:

not as much as I talk to my bikes! Got a beauty for 50€. She's called Rita and she's in the hareem now xD

Gonna stick an electric motor on her and I'll be bombing it for the baguette even when it's -4 outside

Cars, pah! :P

And bollocks to the speed limits :Jumping:

48V 750W Bafang Mid Drive Motor

Feature:

1.It's the newest version has two plugs for gear shift sensor and 6V light.

 2. 25 amp upgraded IRFB3077 mosfets controller (up to 1300 watt with 52 volt battery)

  

IMG_20210408_160339 (copy 1).jpg

Recently bought a hydraulic work stand for my Harley.  Time to do some serious work.  Gonna be worth something soon when me body finally gives up.  Loads of parts to sell (for the bike and loads of other stuff).  Best place for the best prices?  Or should I wait some more?   

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Harley
2 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Given what I've just been quoted for a kitchen floor, I'm certainly not denying it's happening, just pontificating really.

Revenge of the white van man! :)

Sellers market if you're a tradesman.  There's also been a move to higher material prices but better discounts if you ask, etc.  Customer never sees these when times are good.  Me, I'll only do places flying the Union Jack.  If you remember that Labour polo a few years back.  Revenge is a dish best served cold!

:P

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