Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

ICELAND JUST RAISED INTEREST RATES!

The central bank not the shop 

[Fully Detached]

54 minutes ago, Harley said:

Time to look at those NS&I index bonds to see if they are now CPI rather than RPI based.  CPI same as CPIY?  If so, not so good for HMG this month.  Glad I grabbed a few before they were pulled.  OK, based on the statistics of Mickey Mouse but at least something and "relatively" safe, for now.

They're all CPI now if you roll them over at maturity, but if they were RPI linked when you last rolled them over you're good until the end of the term.

It all worked out (as) nicely (as it could have done) for me - two issues we had matured in Feb so I moved that into Eqi ISAs - mostly in cash for now although I am 2p away from a VOD fill this morning. Another two have just matured, so instead of switching it to CPI it is sitting in our bank account while I decide what to do with it it, and the last two have 3 years left to run with RPI linking.

Given the current risks I'm actually considering leaving the recently cashed in money in the bank account for now because that means that Eqi, NS&I and my bank all have less than the guaranteed deposit scheme. Hardly a worry with NS&I but when things fall that nicely without you meaning them to, it makes sense to go with the flow.

[Fully Detached]

In unrelated news, I just booked a viewing of a house this morning. Estate agent asked how we would be paying if we put in an offer, and I said cash. She said that in that case - to save time - it would be a good idea if I brought some proof of funds along to the viewing. And then seemed surprised when I asked her what sort of fuckwit she thinks sits down at the negotiating table having already disclosed his net worth.

I seriously despair - we need an almighty house price crash just so that these fucking imbeciles have to learn some basic common sense.

[wherebee]

36 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Yeah, we have big job on at the minute (for Durham CC funnily enough) where they haven't picked a color yet, problem is we would like to get the material on order to guarantee the price, contract price is agreed so any cost increase is on us!  I have some sympathy that estimating for future cost prices (whether up/down/same and at different points in time) for the 1000+ items that go into the average job, whilst maintaining any profit margin, is going to become very difficult.  

I've said before how I've been talking about this problem with my builder neighbour.  He's been putting in a inflation cushion of 10% since start of year, but that means he loses some jobs.  He's forward bought a lot of materials (which of course affects cashflow), but apart from quotes being valid for 30 days only (so materials can be bought and stored immediately) not sure how you can handle this.

I just issued my first tender that includes a 2.5% rise in hourly rates every 6 months.  Client hasn't yet come back to me.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

it would be a good idea if I brought some proof of funds along to the viewing

print off a picture of some Bitcoins and say 'here, shove this down your knickers......love' 

[NogintheNog]

3 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

They're all CPI now if you roll them over at maturity, but if they were RPI linked when you last rolled them over you're good until the end of the term.

Yes, all CPI and all locked in for 3 years minimum!

I'm out as of 3 days ago. Into my ISA and some already into my favourite 'bond' replacement the Personal Asset Trust.

LON: PNL

[Fully Detached]

10 minutes ago, nirvana said:

print off a picture of some Bitcoins and say 'here, shove this down your knickers......love' 

I'm not actually too far off that - learned a very simple little trick from my sister: screenshot the money in one bank account, move it to another and screenshot that. Hey presto, double bubble!

That girl is a genius 

[Bobthebuilder]

26 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Estate agent asked how we would be paying if we put in an offer, and I said cash. She said that in that case - to save time - it would be a good idea if I brought some proof of funds along to the viewing.

I took proof of funds to viewings when I was buying. In my experience with a decent estate agent it saves a lot of time as they take you a lot more seriously. My offer was excepted in 24 hours, and I was in the house in 6 weeks.

Good luck FD.

[Stinky Wizzleteats]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

China is in a worse demographic position with less resources. It'll take time. The West is far from irrelevant imo, as I said it's still guarding the ME resources. I think China is screwed tbh, unless they reveal huge gold reserves or something. The 'China rising West falling' narrative is very pervasive, and is probably sponsored by the CCP via captive academics, confucious istitutes etc etc. But I don't see it happening any time soon. Not when they have to import 11mbbl day (correction on earlier number which was total consumption so including their own oil), with no alliances or friends in the world. The days of 'Call me Dave' Cameron kissing arse to the Chinese are over.

Heard a Dominic Frisby podcast the other day discussing china's gold reserves. They've got a lot, and they produce a lot too!

Was interesting to hear about their demographics being their potential undoing though, thanks 👍

[23rdian]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Time to look at those NS&I index bonds to see if they are now CPI rather than RPI based.  CPI same as CPIY?  If so, not so good for HMG this month.  Glad I grabbed a few before they were pulled.  OK, based on the statistics of Mickey Mouse but at least something and "relatively" safe, for now.

I was going to dump them but glad I didn't get around to it now.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Did I?  Must have been Big Picture Trading.  I'm currently trying their 14 day free trial.  The nice thing about options is eligibility is based on what you know rather than where you live.

Harley, it was these guys. The method is called BAN apparently, ('basic asset now'). I believe they utilise two separate streams/methods in order to spread risk(?), comprising both etf and shares, i.e. momentum trend trading and also placing option trades. I might have those details not 100%, however they are doing something different from just doing etf/fund momentum trading because they cite 20-65% roi, whereas momentum only methods i've seen elsewhere are usually 12% roi. Ok I know performance can be exaggerated so definitely buyer beware. They also boast having 68,000 worldwide subscribers so backs what you said about not being about where you live.   

Anyway, I am just researching at the moment, but do want to start doing something with options and/or momentum trading after(?!) the BK. But ideally start simple and build up knowledge and confidence.

Technical Traders Ltd. – Technically Proven Strategies, Alerts, & Courses (thetechnicaltraders.com)

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

BTCGBP down 34% MTD.  Will be a good test of my technicals to see if it goes lower still.

Harley, just found this, it is the BAM/Chris Vermeulen take on btc (starts 13.40) technicals. If you don't mind sharing, and of course 'only for fun', how does his analysis compare/differ to yours, or is it maybe similar? 

He also talks about the gold/silver prices.

Critical Turning Point For Gold | Chris Vermeulen - YouTube

 

[arrow]

Asia replies to IEA.

 

 

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Asian energy officials on Wednesday disputed the International Energy Agency's (IEA) call for no new oil, natural gas and coal investments for the world to be able to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, viewing that approach as too narrow.

The IEA, which has previously championed the oil and gas industry, this week outlined a path to net-zero emissions that suggested stopping new investments in oil, gas and coal supply, retiring coal-fired plants in advanced economies by 2030, and banning sales of new internal combustion engine cars by 2035.

Energy companies in Australia, the biggest carbon emitter per capita among the world's richest nations, and officials in Japan and the Philippines said there were many ways to get to net zero, even as the IEA said its pathway was "the most technically feasible, cost-effective and socially acceptable".

Akihisa Matsuda, the deputy director of international affairs at Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), said the government has no plans to immediately stop oil, gas and coal investments.

"The report provides one suggestion as to how the world can reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, but it is not necessarily in line with the Japanese government's policy," he said.

"Japan needs to protect its energy security including a stable supply of electricity, so we will balance this with our goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050."

Japan was the region's third-largest carbon emitter in 2019, after China and India, according to the BP (LON:BP) Statistical Review of Energy.

'NO ONE SIZE FITS ALL'

Australia's top oil and gas industry and mining lobby groups said there was "no one size fits all" for decarbonisation.

"The IEA report doesn't take into account future negative emission technologies and offsets from outside the energy sector -- two things that are likely to happen and will allow vital and necessary future development of oil and gas fields," Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association Chief Executive Andrew McConville said.

Australia's top independent gas producer, Woodside Petroleum, said it still aims to make a final investment decision for an $11 billion investment to develop a new gas field off Western Australia in late 2021.

For its part, Woodside is working with its customers, all of whom are in countries that have committed to net zero, to ensure we can supply them with the energy they are seeking in order to achieve their decarbonisation pathways," a Woodside spokeswoman said.

Australia on Wednesday committed A$600 million ($467 million) in taxpayer funds to build a new gas-fired power station to back up wind and solar power, which Energy Minister Angus Taylor said was a pragmatic move.

 

In the Philippines, where coal is set to be the dominant power source for years even after a ban on new coal plant proposals, Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi said the energy transition should be "fuel and technology-neutral".

Cutting finance for oil, gas and coal without considering efficiency and competitiveness would "set back the Philippines' aspiration to join the ranks of upper middle-income countries," he said.

While the world is moving to renewable energy, demand for coal is still expected to be strong in the next few decades as some countries are still building new coal-fired power plants, said Hendra Sinadia, executive director at Indonesia Coal Mining Association.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

So $800bn lost in crypto in a week. Most of it stimmy money I guess, so we know where it came from

Deep state knew exactly what they were doing with the stimmy cheques....gone to all the 'banking whales' who were shorting 

Did I say I was looking into how to short crypto? Left it a bit late 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The West is far from irrelevant imo, as I said it's still guarding the ME resources. I think China is screwed tbh, unless they reveal huge gold reserves or something. The 'China rising West falling' narrative is very pervasive, and is probably sponsored by the CCP via captive academics, confucious istitutes etc etc. But I don't see it happening any time soon. Not when they have to import 11mbbl day (correction on earlier number which was total consumption so including their own oil), with no alliances or friends in the world. The days of 'Call me Dave' Cameron kissing arse to the Chinese are over.

When I was there, there was the xiao-panza (sp.) phenomenon. It means 'little fat emperor'. Basically, one child had two parents and four grandparents all to himself, thanks to the one child policy, and was spoilt rotten. Now these spoilt children have to support these same parents and grandparents, sometimes all 6 of them, from his salary, along with his own kids and his wifes Gucci handbag habit. Not going to end well, no wonder the CCP is instrigating social credit scores etc to try and keep a lid on it.

'Captive academics'... Did someone mention Michael Hudson?... Ok perhaps its just me then, but when that man speaks i can almost taste the bile that man has for the West. Reminds me of those 'useful idiot-experts' back in the day extolling the virtues of the USSR and when kind old Uncle Joe could do no wrong. 

I think Hudson is a good example of someone incapable of changing his mind, despite the facts around him changing. Full disclosure: up to say 10 years ago i actually used to think Hudson had interesting things to say... but i've move on, i find it alarming that these dogmatic academics cannot do the same?

[Fully Detached]

My crypto has lost 50% today on an already bad week. Oh well, easy come, easy go.

[Talking Monkey]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Cheers CP! 👍

 

Yeah, billions of Chinese and Indians etc don't care less about Co2 fantasies when they all want what we have. 

 

As you say, we're largely an irrelevance going forward: windmills and solar panels and a shrinking birthrate.

 

Goodbye Western civilisation, it was nice whilst it lasted. 

Exactly this there's literally a couple of billion Chinese and Indians who just want the poverty they live in slightly alleviated, they do not care for western woke virtue signalling. 

[nirvana]

This is a serious market flush......luckily I'm mostly cash but might have to sell the last few dregs 

HOLD On GOLD is BID 

[Heart's Ease]

 

[Hardhat]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

This is a serious market flush......luckily I'm mostly cash but might have to sell the last few dregs 

I find it hard to get too worried by these daily moves. Pullbacks are surely due and even expected in a melt up scenario.

I doubt we get a March '20 style crash with the economy about to open up, I haven't sold anything yet.

I may well be wrong though.

Crypto wise I sold my initial stake last year so I'm in for a free ride. I'm still about 700% up so again, hard to get too worried.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Impossible to time, not worth a second's thought.

well me still thinks it's all in the charts, ahem that '911 line'.....like a magnet for a few weeks 

they say specialise in a few markets.....think I'll put more effort into CL in the future 

 

[DoINeedOne]

Topped up Vodaphone  6.2% decent dividend here

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, it was these guys. The method is called BAN apparently, ('basic asset now'). I believe they utilise two separate streams/methods in order to spread risk(?), comprising both etf and shares, i.e. momentum trend trading and also placing option trades. I might have those details not 100%, however they are doing something different from just doing etf/fund momentum trading because they cite 20-65% roi, whereas momentum only methods i've seen elsewhere are usually 12% roi. Ok I know performance can be exaggerated so definitely buyer beware. They also boast having 68,000 worldwide subscribers so backs what you said about not being about where you live.   

Anyway, I am just researching at the moment, but do want to start doing something with options and/or momentum trading after(?!) the BK. But ideally start simple and build up knowledge and confidence.

Technical Traders Ltd. – Technically Proven Strategies, Alerts, & Courses (thetechnicaltraders.com)

Ah yes, them, ta.  I'm looking to take that forward using options and the ETFs to play various macro themes and my trading system which is largely momentum based.  I'll define one ETF per sector/geo, back test, and off I go.  I already have a starter watchlist.  Nice thing about the options is I can trade US ETFs so get the required coverage.  I've passed all the tests and have set up several accounts so just need to practice a bit to get back up to speed.  I'll move any posts to the Options thread @MvR created.  I'll be happier trading options around a BK than holding many stocks outright.

PS:  I'm looking for weeks to months trades, nothing too strenuous!

[janch]

I've just read Lyn Alden's latest:

https://www.lynalden.com/may-2021-newsletter/

She thinks what we're going through is more like the 1940s than 1970s and also seems to think financial repression is on the cards as it was in the 1940s.

I have to say I find her pieces very interesting from a macro point of view with just the right amount of detail and not too overwhelming.  Her views also tie in with this thread.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I've passed all the tests and have set up several accounts

did you manage to get a thinkorswim account? IB?

cheers