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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko
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@planit FWIW and with no disrespect to David at all, I wouldn't be surprised if we blow through those timelines.  Even he said a few months either side would be a good call (I agree) and with that in mind, his timing tends to be late.

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Noallegiance
9 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

Good interview with David Hunter published today (apologies if already posted).

 

Just listened.

Wonderfully meaty.

And I'm mostly vegetarian.

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Viceroy
7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Our political parties are all highjacked of course now ,but they can be removed and hanged in 30 minutes if the people ever decide it.

My friend doesnt do much now on the macro front,though he does still look after a few different charities investments.I message him every now and again,but he tends to talk more about the political cycle now in the US more than anything,he is very very worried about a civil war at the end of the cycle.He thinks the left are allowed to use violence all the time,and people/media think its ok if its aimed at someone who doesnt think their way.He says the people getting on with their lives will turn though,and it could be full on civil war.Ironic is he is left leaning.

Armstrong writes about the Socialist revolution cycle; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/socialist-revolution-on-target/

The last time something like this occurred on an international contagion basis was the Revolution of 1848. Our models forecast that we would see global civil unrest in 2020, and this was 172 years on schedule..The 1848 Socialist Revolution sent people fleeing Europe to the United States for safety. Today, a takeover by the Socialists in the United States will lead to yet another migration between states, but there is no new land for people to flee. It is more likely to result in nations splitting and civil wars.

His cycles have always pointed to the break up of the US States - he wrote this in 2013 ; https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/

This Collapsing Wave structure that the United States appears to be in means it is a one-time-wonder and that the United States will break-up and the there will be no more “united” union. This is becoming self-evidence in the polarization of politics with tremendous differences in culture on a regional basis

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M S E Refugee
47 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANK YOU SO MUCH!

 

 

 
 
AH...but have you sold your entire RMG share holding?
 
Would be interesting to know as YOU are this boards inside-man :ph34r: at Royal Mail...
 
 

I have still got my RMG shares through work as I can't sell them unless I want get clobbered with Tax and National Insurance.

Its been a lot quieter since the Shops reopened but it usually quietens down from now until September.

I think us delivering 7 days a week is very good news, the management and Union are very optimistic going forward and there seems to be a bit of a buzz about the place.

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BearingUp
1 hour ago, planit said:

 

Agreed, it was very good.

His timings are very tight though, he mentioned DXY going to 82 and then mentioned labour day (looked it up and it is 1st May O.o

 

Labour Day in the US is first week of Sep.

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11 hours ago, Hancock said:

Aren't those reasons that the more placid won't want to return to the orifice. 

placid or flacid?

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17 minutes ago, BearingUp said:

Labour Day in the US is first week of Sep.

Thanks, that makes more sense.

 

What Deutsche Bank Found to Love in European Oil Giants

ENI target €11.50 ($13.80). At a current price of around €10.1, the upside potential is 11%

Total target of €46.60 ($55.94), implying an upside of 23%

Shell  target of £19.37 ($26.91). That implies upside potential to a current price of around $36.60 of 37%.

BP target of £3.13. At that price, the potential upside on BP’s stock is 3%

 

Not sure what research Deutsche has done but they don't seem very consistent if you read the comments in that article (assuming the article is a true reflection of Deutsche research).

For example they include share buybacks in the figures for ENI and Shell but don't mention it for BP. For ENI they say a renewables spin off will out the true value but for BP they imply the renewables are only potentially worth anything.

Would be good to get hold of the real analysis if anyone has access.

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DurhamBorn

One of my great interests is the American Civil War.I think mainly because it think it was a war of ideas and way of life rather than taking others resources.The great lesson of that was the fact there needed to be a Great Compromise and that was well understood until the last 15 years.The fact that the left have now moved past that,and seem to think that compromise isnt needed is the great risk of our time.As men we love life and dont give it away easily.I dont fancy a bayonet in my belly and id like to die old in my bed.However those things fall by the wayside when my history,self and cultural memory is threatened.When i see the left and the state slowly encroaching on my children and grandchildren then my ferocity would know no bounds.We are British,Roman,Pict,Scot,Viking,Saxon and Celt,the most violent,nasty races ever to walk this earth bred together and mixed in DNA.

Someone attacked my daughter once in an Asda car park over a simple parking spot and she had to ring me she was so scared locked in her car.I pulled his 16 stone through his 4x4 window and was about to pull out and eat his eyeballs until my daughter stopped me.That is the sort of thing us western men are capable of at any moment.

I think civil war is still unlikely,but its much more probable than any time since the late 1800s

 

Edited by DurhamBorn
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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza thats right,and i think the welfare system in the UK is hugely to blame.There is no incentive for people to build capital outside of housing.My friend gets £2200 a month in benefits,you need capital of around half a mill to get that income from 60/40 type funds.An ordinary paid couple would need to save hard most of their lives to get what he gets for free.In the past welfare wasnt that nice.It was ok if you had kids,but a struggle.Not now.Of course,its so generous now people also defraud it more and more.I think around 20%+ will be fraud,government think less than 1%.Mostly single mothers who arent single.I know one who lives with a millionaire and claims full Universal Credit.Drives around in a £40k car.Its everywhere,but nothing is ever done.

Of course its a pincer movement.Government hands out more and more so needs to take more and more from the workers,so the worker gets it from both sides.I did a calculation once on a factory job and i reckoned if the worker and company werent paying for working age welfare and pensioner housing benefits and state worker pensions instead of being paid £330 a week it would of been £480.

Of course in the UK the only real weapon government have is to try to trap as many people into working as they can,and they use mortgage debt for that.Losing your home is hugely traumatic and people tend to focus on working to keep "their" house,even though its mostly the banks,HTB loan etc.

All of these things were on my roadmap of course and part of the reason why more and more printing was certain.We are getting close to end game on government spending though as printing will stop once inflation is over 3% for a while.Of course its way way over now in the real world.Needed a bucket today to re-point some brickwork on my house,1.39p were £1 a few months ago.Luckily iv got a lifetimes supply already.They didnt have ready mix mortar in stock anywhere,luckily had some in the garage.

B+M currently selling buckets with metal handles for a quid.

I asked the cashier the other day if they have portaloo since camping is currently BYO sanitation. Then [unrelated] grabbed 5 buckets. As  she rang everything through she said I'll put these in here since it hasn't been used yet and then [unneccessarily] started apologising for her sense of humour.

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DurhamBorn
5 minutes ago, BWW said:

B+M currently selling buckets with metal handles for a quid.

I asked the cashier the other day if they have portaloo since camping is currently BYO sanitation. Then [unrelated] grabbed 5 buckets. As  she rang everything through she said I'll put these in here since it hasn't been used yet and then [unneccessarily] started apologising for her sense of humour.

Il grab myself a few more,iv done a grand job on the pointing,but have some ridge tiles to take off and re-mortar,im a bit iffy about going up that high,but nows the time to do it with zero wind.

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sleepwello'nights
On 20/04/2021 at 06:28, Siggy said:

 

A while back, someone mentioned about VAT free silver from Germany (coininvest/silvertogo). I can sadly confirm that they are not letting it slip through anymore.  I scrupulously ordered less than 1k, so that there would be no customs declaration,  yet UPS sent a link for the VAT to be paid before releasing parcel for delivery. 

 

I bought some Britannias in March from Coininvest. The invoice included the following line As per "HMRC Notice 701/21A  - Investment Gold Coins - January 2009" all gold coins and bullion are VAT exempted - except 20 EURO Ireland 2008 Skellig Michael.  This delivery is free of VAT according to Art. 146 of EU directive 2006/112/EG.

The order was delivered by UPS and i haven't been charged anything other than the amount shown on the invoice. Definitely no VAT paid to UK or German authorities.

 

 

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Straingone
10 hours ago, Harley said:

I strive for faith and grace.  I've never knowingly screwed over anyone and I was very pleased I didn't that time I faced the very real possibility of death.  It taught me what hell could look like at a fortunately young age.  We're all held to account in the end, brutally and with no duff, to ourselves.

1 Corinthians 13:11

spacer.png

Could not rep this post high enough.

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34 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I bought some Britannias in March from Coininvest. The invoice included the following line As per "HMRC Notice 701/21A  - Investment Gold Coins - January 2009" all gold coins and bullion are VAT exempted - except 20 EURO Ireland 2008 Skellig Michael.  This delivery is free of VAT according to Art. 146 of EU directive 2006/112/EG.

The order was delivered by UPS and i haven't been charged anything other than the amount shown on the invoice. Definitely no VAT paid to UK or German authorities.

 

 

Gold Britannias? If so then that is definitely the case as gold is VAT free. 

It is the silver that I am having trouble getting hold of VAT free. Might have to plan a trip to Ireland! If anyone has any experience of this then please share. 

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Hancock
11 hours ago, Harley said:

I strive for faith and grace.  I've never knowingly screwed over anyone and I was very pleased I didn't that time I faced the very real possibility of death.  It taught me what hell could look like at a fortunately young age.  We're all held to account in the end, brutally and with no duff, to ourselves.

1 Corinthians 13:11

spacer.png

IM awaiting on a video that i will post on here, predominantly about Andrew Bailey when at the FCA, along with RBS and the Treasury are involved.

In essence they conspired to bankrupt business in the same way Lloyds did, so they could them pick up the assets for next to nothing.

From the sounds of it the only difference with Lloyds scam is the FCA and the Treasury were involved .... oh and the many suicides it caused.

Edit - Ive found this one, however the video i was told about is over 3 hour

 

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Il grab myself a few more,iv done a grand job on the pointing,but have some ridge tiles to take off and re-mortar,im a bit iffy about going up that high,but nows the time to do it with zero wind.

Be careful doing that. Don't need you falling off a roof any time soon.

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You know at 18 i went for a job with RBS and i did all their tests.They sacked me off,mainly because i went to a terrible comp in the poorest part of England .I told them in interview they were going bankrupt and their models didnt work out,and they did,go bankrupt.

 

 

In 2008/9 I had an argument with my Barclays business bank manager in a meeting, he said they "didn't need my money" which was why they wouldn't pay much interest. (I can't remember the specifics but I think we used a money market account at the time and their deposit account was 0% interest).

HSBC were keen to have us as a customer so I moved to them.

Part of the conversation I told them they were going to lose a lot of money and he retorted with "we had a conference call yesterday and were told that Barclays had capped their losses at £50m". I laughed out loud and told him that was a load of rubbish and it was probably 10 times that.

I think it was only about 1 month later that everything blew up.

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16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Luckily iv got a lifetimes supply already.

You've gone long buckets?  Thinking about the DH interview, I'm buying made stuff like service parts to not only avoid inflation but also supply issues (imports).  In deflation/insolvency prices may fall but only for those more mundane items and I would expect continued supply shortages.  Should be fire sales then but who knows what for.

Edited by Harley
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Lightscribe
9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

One of my great interests is the American Civil War.I think mainly because it think it was a war of ideas and way of life rather than taking others resources.The great lesson of that was the fact there needed to be a Great Compromise and that was well understood until the last 15 years.The fact that the left have now moved past that,and seem to think that compromise isnt needed is the great risk of our time.As men we love life and dont give it away easily.I dont fancy a bayonet in my belly and id like to die old in my bed.However those things fall by the wayside when my history,self and cultural memory is threatened.When i see the left and the state slowly encroaching on my children and grandchildren then my ferocity would know no bounds.We are British,Roman,Pict,Scot,Viking,Saxon and Celt,the most violent,nasty races ever to walk this earth bred together and mixed in DNA.

Someone attacked my daughter once in an Asda car park over a simple parking spot and she had to ring me she was so scared locked in her car.I pulled his 16 stone through his 4x4 window and was about to pull out and eat his eyeballs until my daughter stopped me.That is the sort of thing us western men are capable of at any moment.

I think civil war is still unlikely,but its much more probable than any time since the late 1800s

 

Must be you norther types DB.
Down here around London the hipsters have evolved into a different genetic breed.
If provoked about politics, they may resort to angrily using passive-aggressive non-pronouns and vigorously shaking their sustainably sourced gluten-free vegan artisan sough dough sandwich at you, whilst simultaneously being in danger of spilling their skinny soy latte over any bystanders wildly gesturing to prove any uneducated opinion wrong.

Edited by Lightscribe
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7 minutes ago, Harley said:

You've gone long buckets?  Thinking about the DH interview, I'm buying made stuff like service parts to not only avoid inflation but also supply issues (imports).  In deflation/insolvency prices may fall but only for those more mundane items and I would expect continued supply shortages.  Should be fire sales then but who knows what for.

Yup i put a big order in for filters and fluids

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Bricormortis
9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

One of my great interests is the American Civil War.I think mainly because it think it was a war of ideas and way of life rather than taking others resources.The great lesson of that was the fact there needed to be a Great Compromise and that was well understood until the last 15 years.The fact that the left have now moved past that,and seem to think that compromise isnt needed is the great risk of our time.As men we love life and dont give it away easily.I dont fancy a bayonet in my belly and id like to die old in my bed.However those things fall by the wayside when my history,self and cultural memory is threatened.When i see the left and the state slowly encroaching on my children and grandchildren then my ferocity would know no bounds.We are British,Roman,Pict,Scot,Viking,Saxon and Celt,the most violent,nasty races ever to walk this earth bred together and mixed in DNA.

Someone attacked my daughter once in an Asda car park over a simple parking spot and she had to ring me she was so scared locked in her car.I pulled his 16 stone through his 4x4 window and was about to pull out and eat his eyeballs until my daughter stopped me.That is the sort of thing us western men are capable of at any moment.

I think civil war is still unlikely,but its much more probable than any time since the late 1800s

 

 I read "Battle cry of Freedom " a comprehensive history of the American Civil War. Can recommend that for any one interested. What startled me was the scope of the ambition of the Confederacy, to have a world dominating slave based economy extending from America to the tip of Southern America. Iirc they installed a regime in Honduras and sent a mercenary force to invade Cuba unsucessfully 3 times. Dinn't get further than that ( except maybe Nicaragua or Panama)

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11 hours ago, Loki said:

@planit FWIW and with no disrespect to David at all, I wouldn't be surprised if we blow through those timelines.  Even he said a few months either side would be a good call (I agree) and with that in mind, his timing tends to be late.

I struggle with the DXY call and its timeline.  Although the technicals don't rule it out, that woukd take quite a shock.  Momentum is currently oversold and may be turning up, although some rare times it heads even lower.

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10 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Its been a lot quieter since the Shops reopened but it usually quietens down from now until September.

The local Amazon man in a van told me he had fewer parcels.

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