Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[M S E Refugee]

Watched this 10 years ago,is it finally coming true?

[BearyBear]

26 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Anybody buying stocks today are absolutely crackers.

This is going to be the 2nd Great Depression. 

Yep, ftse100 dropping like a crypto...

[CVG]

24 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Anybody buying stocks today are absolutely crackers.

This is going to be the 2nd Great Depression. 

Well, not quite. It's the beauty of a balanced diversified portfolio. Even if shares fall 50%, I only lose 20% of my overall portfolio (assuming nothing goes up in the other asset classes). Rebalancing then forces me to buy shares at their discounted prices with the gains from those other assets. I'm intensely relaxed about the market crashing (just from a portfolio perspective - not about the consequences to other people's jobs).

[Democorruptcy]

HL starting to feel like wading through treacle when just placing a limit order on DTY 

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I'm 30, and I would like to chase capital gains. Any names for smaller oilies that look good? Won't be taken as trading advice but somewhere to start researching.

Gvien how cheap the big oilies are there seems little point chasing risky 5 and ten baggers.For me Occidetnal worth looking at in terms of size ($30bn+ prob not at these levels) and plenty of scope for capital growth.

As i've said,given the value in the big boys,seems careless to chase small plays here

 

4 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Yup, loading into Shell, in my ISA, and will start averaging down in my pension (not much choice in funds) from my cash fund into the FTSE 100 once it hits below 6000. We'll see what happens to crypto as it's a true test now. I have 1.5BTC but also chainlink (see the rise of this since I mentioned it on this thread last year). I won't make the mistake of not capitalising on every ladder down like I didn't do in 2000/2008. 

If it gets worse than that... well we'll have greater things than investing to worry about.

We've been keepign  a fair chunk of cash spare.Happy to deploy it here.Unless the world ends we're going to need oil and I suspect when the dust settles in a month or two,it'll be costing a lot more than $33

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Depends on how long this lasts, a dent for sure. At $28 a barrel Im happy that and anything else is fully priced in. Call me crazy, but I'm still buying tomorrow. I might even pick up some 12% divis, yum.

I feel strangely relieved and relaxed. Ive been worrying and waiting for this for a long time. I'm glad its happened and is now over. For me, at least. 

Edit: I should say tonight! It's late evening where I am, and you wouldn't think a thing is amiss.

 

I've got 3 generations to help through their stages of life.Deploying into RDSB/XOM etc at these prices will help me considerably.

Over the years of my trading expereince I've seen a few moments when sane people lose all semblance of perspective.This virus is one of thsoe moments.The panic the media are spreading you wouldn't think that people die every day of natural causes.

7 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Yep, ftse100 dropping like a crypto...

sat downstairs with the kids watching fireman sam......waiting for the open.one I'll be watching for a change.

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Gvien how cheap the big oilies are

sat downstairs with the kids watching fireman sam......waiting for the open.one I'll be watching for a change.

I hope you eventually have reason to stop saying how cheap they are 

Don't like Sam's hose point towards the FTSE and cool it down

[sancho panza]

40 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Anybody buying stocks today are absolutely crackers.

This is going to be the 2nd Great Depression. 

personally I think that's 2021/2

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

I hope you eventually have reason to stop saying how cheap they are 

Don't like Sam's hose point towards the FTSE and cool it down

absolutely.I called CNA cheap all the way to where they are.pays yer money etc which as an ex bookie you well know.....takes balls or stupidity to buy today(admittedly we'll be laddering but still)

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

Does anyone remember a poster on ToS 'Realist Bear' ? His/her profile pic was a polar bear. I always remember one of his/her excellent posts that laid out the endgame point-by-point. It ended with "Bond market collapse and dash for assets". I've searched the old site for that particular post but can't find it anywhere. Absolutely incredible to read the posts on here and see it play it in front of you. Much respect to you all.

Thats exactly the way the end plays out,people are missing it because they dont see the inflation cycle dead ahead.The dash for assets as you say will force the price of everything up and that will send bonds crashing.

[Noallegiance]

I'm a renter. Any idea what happens to rents in times like these?

[BearyBear]

Can't login to my broker lol  (IG Group) - too many connections?

What's the price of Shell?

Flash Crash on FX overnight... wow... crazy times!

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

Can't login to my broker lol  (IG Group) - too many connections?

What's the price of Shell?

down 25% £12.80 on investing.com

 

deflation thread does poetry too.

If— 

Launch Audio in a New Window

BY RUDYARD KIPLING

 

(‘Brother Square-Toes’—Rewards and Fairies)

 

If you can keep your head when all about you   

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    But make allowance for their doubting too;   

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,

Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,

    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

 

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;   

    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;   

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

    And treat those two impostors just the same;   

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken

    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

 

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

    To serve your turn long after they are gone,   

And so hold on when there is nothing in you

    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

 

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,   

    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

    If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,   

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   

    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

 

[nirvana]

IG have upped the spread on DAX to 4 from 1, robbing bastards, hope covid19 gets the management team 

PS my oil target at 32.5$ hit - I posted the chart last month 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, sancho panza said:

down 25% £12.80 on investing.com

 

deflation thread does poetry too.

If— 

Launch Audio in a New Window

BY RUDYARD KIPLING

 

(‘Brother Square-Toes’—Rewards and Fairies)

 

If you can keep your head when all about you   

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    But make allowance for their doubting too;   

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,

Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,

    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

 

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;   

    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;   

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

    And treat those two impostors just the same;   

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken

    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

 

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

    To serve your turn long after they are gone,   

And so hold on when there is nothing in you

    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

 

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,   

    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

    If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,   

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   

    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

 

#greatness

 

Favourite poem

[nirvana]

PPS loving all the 'bear talk' on here, keep it up chaps! 

10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm a renter. Any idea what happens to rents in times like these?

Hopefully quite a few landlords dead soon, in my experience most of them are fat aholes so they deserve to go bust in the coming depression and/or die a painful death 

[Noallegiance]

Just now, confused said:

PPS loving all the 'bear talk' on here, keep it up chaps! 

Hopefully quite a few landlords dead soon, in my experience most of them are fat aholes so they deserve to go bust in the coming depression and/or die a painful death 

I'll file this one under 'beautifully put but not that useful'!

🤣

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Can't login to my broker lol  (IG Group) - too many connections?

What's the price of Shell?

Flash Crash on FX overnight... wow... crazy times!

CMC quoting 1255p for RDSB

EDIT just dropped to 1245p 

[Democorruptcy]

WOW!!!! I thought I was being a greedy fucker setting my RDSB order at 1250, hope I'm not just a stupid fucker and my hand is going to start bleeding after catching a knife 

[Boon]

Feel sick with the (paper) losses at the moment, and my portfolio is apprx 50% cash! (I also have quite a bit in Vanguard and P2P which may also take a pasting).

The aggravating thing to me is that I think the effect on house prices will be negligible. We need some of this for the housing market, ffs.

[TNS]

BP at £2.80 as well!

[Boon]

Any thoughts on RRE? Seems a crazy price

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

Any thoughts on RRE? Seems a crazy price

Seemed like a crazy world for a long time.......enjoy the popcorn for the time being citizen....

 

[DoINeedOne]

 

[Lightscribe]

57 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Yep, ftse100 dropping like a crypto...

BTC’s test is when the trillions of QE starts

[Barnsey]

Been waiting 30 mins for ii to process my buy orders for BP and Shell, and now the f**kers are starting to recover 

[Alifelessbinary]

What a morning!

Im normally at work early on Mondays, but got a physio appointment so have just been on a buying spree! 

It’s so annoying being a retail investor as you struggle to place any orders, as the big boys flood the system and hoover up all the bargains.

So far I’ve brought BP, Shell, Centrica (last ladder 🙏) I’m also trying to buy some Tullow as a punt but I can’t seem to get a quote from any of my online platforms!
 

While this is going to sting in the short term, I’ve been waiting for this for years and this just seems too good a buying opportunity.