Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

Same here, bit gutted I bought some others so early but hopefully I'll get a chance to buy at a decent price

Wonder what will happen when the US joins us?

[DurhamBorn]

Just as an aside,i bought some more tobacco today.My old road map says tobacco stocks rally hard when oil goes down as the declines slow down or even go positive in fag sales in the US.Most are bought in gas stations and when they can fill up cheaper they buy more fags.

 

[reformed nice guy]

Bought some Repsol, Shell, Centrica, Wood group (they sold some nuclear assets recently, so that will keep them solvent), BP,  Gazprom, Telefonica, AngloAmerican and Equinor.

Monitoring a few others but my ladders havent hit. I still have 2 more ladder drops for some stocks! Will it get that crazy?

[Harley]

Hope to buy physical silver coins today once things a bit quieter.  Been on my list for a while but in this case waiting has been good?  Easier to decontaminate than notes, in more ways than one!

[DoINeedOne]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

you buying the ADR on gazprom?

only option i see on HL 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/p/pjsc-gazprom-ads-representing-2-ord-shares

[NogintheNog]

22 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

The question is what is the path to those future prices. I'm now down on BP, RDSB, evens on TOT. But I've just reset my ladders for lower prices still.

Well it looks like the answer to my question of the path to future prices is it's a very slippery path going mostly down hill! S&S ISA has taken a real kick in the balls over the last two weeks and I fear there is more to come. I wonder whether the Central banks have realized they are pretty powerless in front of the force of nature but then again is it the cover they need to start up the printing press again but with a much higher velocity. Oh. I forgot, we've already got 'Not QE' in the repo market....

Obviously hit some more ladders this morning, and another £6K got gobbled up by RDSB/BP at 9:15 this morning, also bought another chunk of my favorite trust CTY. I'm buying these in bigger chunks now on the way down now and hoping I don't loose too many fingers from the falling knife!

I take some comfort knowing that some of you are with me on this journey, so you'll also be feeling the exasperation and exhilaration of the bear we find ourselves in. New ladders now set up in the oilies.

[DurhamBorn]

Look at the 15 year gilt 0.2%  ,my road map said that would be the level at the bottom of the debt deflation.The question then is this,are we now in it?

Government can borrow at 0.2% and build a shit load of social houses,and the housing benefit goes back to them.BTL anyone?

Lots of cross market affects will start to kick in now.Once i get these ladders bought and set im going to get to work.My partner is on 3 12 hour shifts back end of the week,so time to work.

[NogintheNog]

16 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Will it get that crazy?

I think it will....

 

[Harley]

Great weather for digging ditches but I suppose I'd better play this finance malarky!  The elephant (me) has started to move!  Got me RDSB but cancelled BP as time to take a step back.  Will research from now until the US open, with an eye on the FTSE just in case someone somewhere says something silly.  First step is to decide on sectors and allocations.  My Chief Investment Officer (partner) is digging in the allotment so I guess I'll have to talk to you lot of reprobates instead!  Don't worry, just put me on ignore (maybe that's why she goes to the allotment)!   

[sancho panza]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look at the 15 year gilt 0.2%  ,my road map said that would be the level at the bottom of the debt deflation.The question then is this,are we now in it?

Government can borrow at 0.2% and build a shit load of social houses,and the housing benefit goes back to them.BTL anyone?

Lots of cross market affects will start to kick in now.Once i get these ladders bought and set im going to get to work.My partner is on 3 12 hour shifts back end of the week,so time to work.

You ahve to react to the newsflow and whilst I've been firm saying we'll get weak dollar phase leading commodities higher then big kahuna as dollar strengthens then debt deflation.

However,reality is that the panic around this virus may initiate bond market dislocations-mainly in junk(and lets be honest lots off bonds currently not rated junk are in fact...junk).

Personally currently gonna stick to my guns and say the fed/cbs have the ammo to keep it rolling one more time for now.One of the resaons weve rotated away from small companies is to minimsie risk that im worng and debt deflation starts

 

.

hattip wolf st

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

You ahve to react to the newsflow and whilst I've been firm saying we'll get weak dollar phase leading commodities higher then big kahuna as dollar strengthens then debt deflation.

However,reality is that the panic around this virus may initiate bond market dislocations-mainly in junk(and lets be honest lots off bonds currently not rated junk are in fact...junk).

Personally currently gonna stick to my guns and say the fed/cbs have the ammo to keep it rolling one more time for now.One of the resaons weve rotated away from small companies is to minimsie risk that im worng and debt deflation starts

 

.

hattip wolf st

 

Yes i think thats right,the bigger drop is likely sentiment,and you cant measure it right now.Liquidity pulls say the dollar is going down,and fast.Iv got some work somewhere on oil when big consumers currency goes up against the dollar,but cant find it ,i do know it shows them buying oil while they can etc.

[Loki]

RDSB has already made up the 11.95 trading cost and gone into blue 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

RDSB has already made up the 11.95 trading cost and gone into blue 

Think big me son, think big!

I'm watching the 15m charts.  A looong time since I did this.  Hope me ticker can still take it!

Yep, firm bounce.  Will the US markets knock it down again or fire it up?

Note to myself:  If you wanna trade short term, get a real brokerage account!

[reformed nice guy]

I think this is a bug..... but im phoning to see if I can sell it for the gain just in case!!!

[ashestoashes]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I managed to get through on the phone to HL eventually.

I have a limit order on RDSB that the price definitely dropped below, so have raised a complaint. At first the chap tried to fob me off putting me through to a trader, who would no doubt have just offered me the higher price. The chap agreed HL would have the times of my limit order and the share price movements to confirm my order should have been matched.

Might be worth anyone else doing the same if they are sure an order wasn't met - and - you still want it!

 

got shell higher than I would have liked and bp at good price

[sleepwello'nights]

13 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think this is a bug..... but im phoning to see if I can sell it for the gain just in case!!!

I just had a look at my Vanguard account, predominantly UK gilts. Values all showing as Nil 

I expect, hope, that they are showing at that value because they have suspended selling of them. I'd like to buy some more at that price but I doubt I could.

Just had another look and they're up on Friday's last closing price, phew. 

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think this is a bug..... but im phoning to see if I can sell it for the gain just in case!!!

It's nice to know the red on reflation stocks has gone to one of us.

[reformed nice guy]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's nice to know the red on reflation stocks has gone to one of us.

Phoned them up and it was a bug. That bond price is 101.3p just now

Oh well

[StrugglingMillennial]

So are we expecting a further drop when the other markets join in?

Bought a few this morning, some cheap buys out there.

[sleepwello'nights]

3 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Phoned them up and it was a bug. That bond price is 101.3p just now

Oh well

How disappointing, easy come easy go. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Does anyone think we're at the bottom? 

 

I think its just started 

[nirvana]

Any Ray Dalio fans?

Writing in the FT today he thinks we're fucked....

Quote
Anyone who is knowledgeable and plain-speaking will tell you that the negative economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak will probably be big, that monetary policy will be of little use to counteract it, and that co-ordination between political leaders and central bankers is both essential and unlikely.

https://www.ft.com/content/069caf6c-6135-11ea-abcc-910c5b38d9ed
 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Cant buy anymore they gone past my bottom ladder and done me for 5  dont worry about toilet rolls,always free ones in the library,handy when in to Borrow the madness of crowds,

... AND i always thought i was TIGHT Ha-ha!

this is some PARTY!

I put my shell buy order in last night @ £12 quid ...i see today the LOW was 12.40 ....i'm holding out for £12 quid cos every time i buy shell it goes down!

FAB TIMES! NO-ONE here...should be SHOCKED ...cos this is what we've been waiting for ...is just knowing when the damn bottom hits!

[Barnsey]

With the UK 10 yr yield dropping from 0.6 to less than 0.1 in a matter of a month, I guess we'll start to see cheaper mortgage deals feed through the market?

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

With the UK 10 yr yield dropping from 0.6 to less than 0.1 in a matter of a month, I guess we'll start to see cheaper mortgage deals feed through the market?

Give it a year, when the dead bodies feed through and the economy is on its knees, I can't even see 0% IRs holding house prices up....