Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah it's been weird this last week lsitening to the lovely Mrs P worrying about La Coruna.I ahev my views and I do worry that the cure is worse than the disease.People dying is tragic but if shutting down the economy means there's no moeny for the NHS/Healthcare in a year then you do wonder if these responses are appropriate given that the vast bulk of those who get il recover.

Does Mrs P have percentages in mind for UK infection and death rates?

[reformed nice guy]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

RDSB paying $1.88 in divis here.....................

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/dividends

 

Absolutely warning sign to us all.I thought OXY were big enough to cope.clearly not.

Decl-long OXY

Ouch. Sorry to hear that.

Wish I could buy shares in Dosbod posts, as they always go up when shares go down!!

[JMD]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

down 25% £12.80 on investing.com

 

deflation thread does poetry too.

If— 

Launch Audio in a New Window

BY RUDYARD KIPLING

 

(‘Brother Square-Toes’—Rewards and Fairies)

 

If you can keep your head when all about you   

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    But make allowance for their doubting too;   

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,

Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,

    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

 

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;   

    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;   

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

    And treat those two impostors just the same;   

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken

    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

 

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

    To serve your turn long after they are gone,   

And so hold on when there is nothing in you

    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

 

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,   

    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

    If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,   

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   

    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

 

SP, a great poem and I know this is not a poetry thread, but Kipling also had some very dark musings about the markets in: The Gods of the Copybook Headings...

As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
...
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch.
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch.
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
...
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
• • • • • • •
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man—
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began:—
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

Rudyard Kipling,

 

...anyway for those interested, some interpretation below - just to add - poem is not exclusively a criticism of the money men/markets, but also among other things, the mistakes that led to the catastrophe that was WW1.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gods_of_the_Copybook_Headings

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Is it me, i still don't get it, why are/did people buy at peak prices or just below when everyone knew, or suspected, collapse would happen 

 

It could take years to cover some if these losses 

[Majorpain]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is it me, i still don't get it, why are/did people buy at peak prices or just below when everyone knew, or suspected, collapse would happen 

 

It could take years to cover some if these losses 

Easy, Greed.

Never mind its 11 years on from the last recession, the market is bubbly as feck and Central Bankers are now focusing on merely keeping the economy going and not just pumping assets, the $/£ signs have descended over the eyes and all they can see is stocks on sale!

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

Easy, Greed.

Never mind its 11 years on from the last recession, the market is bubbly as feck and Central Bankers are now focusing on merely keeping the economy going and not just pumping assets, the $/£ signs have descended over the eyes and all they can see is stocks on sale!

Not as easy to me. Remember that the exact same argument ("it's too high, it needs to collapse, rawrrr!") was being made in 2015, with SP500 at 2k. Turns out no matter how exorbitant indices seem to be, then can always go higher. Way higher. It's true for stock just as it is for real estate.

So, at 3300 the downturn wasn't any more obvious than it was at 2000. It was dead certain both times, but it has already proven wrong once and we're yet to see if it's going to be proven right this time.

[BearyBear]

  

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is it me, i still don't get it, why are/did people buy at peak prices or just below when everyone knew, or suspected, collapse would happen 

 

It could take years to cover some if these losses 

Well, some of the companies are already cheap, but generally speaking yes, I am afraid of buying this market as I expect it to drop more.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Is it me, i still don't get it, why are/did people buy at peak prices or just below when everyone knew, or suspected, collapse would happen 

 

It could take years to cover some if these losses 

Decades or never for a lot of them.The people next to me on the production line where i worked were buying at peak prices.Their pensions were going in every month.People moving a DB pension over to an equity fund.Many of them will of gone in at peak.Every forum you read they all buy Vanguard 40/60 type funds because they have done very well for decades.Smoothing out the ups and downs.Will they work with yields at 0.2%?,time will tell.

When i started work,in a factory,most people understood finance,even if just a little bit.They understood interest rates,inflation,risk.Do people now?.All i see is new builds selling for £150k with 22 year olds in them with two new Audi's on the drive.

The risk out there now isnt recession,bad times etc.Its the most elevated risk since the US was formed that we could see complete collapse.The CBs are way behind.Governments seem as fixed as ever on rubbish,rather than whats arriving at speed.

Nobody can know the bottom.Im buying now myself knowing full well if the worst of a debt deflation hits i will be hit,but with work and effort iv avoided 50% falls for most of my capital.So far we have traded the last few years about as well as you can,not perfect,mistake along the way,but im pretty happy about it.

Once/if the $ hits 90/88 everything will depend on if the CBs are mass printing or not.

Lets hope within a year we can leave this thread for 7 years to just sit ,and go away and live our lives.Once this works through thats what il be doing once fully positioned.

[Democorruptcy]

DOW trying for -2000.00

Who wants them to keep up the good work for our open tomorrow or have we had enough yet? 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lets hope within a year we can leave this thread for 7 years to just sit ,and go away and live our lives.Once this works through thats what il be doing once fully positioned.

I understand the sentiment but I think that will be quite a sad day! This thread and your posts have given me much to learn and think about.  I can see why you'd want a well-deserved break from it all though. Hopefully this site is still here in 2027...

[Noallegiance]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

DOW trying for -2000.00

Who wants them to keep up the good work for our open tomorrow or have we had enough yet? 

That rate cut worked a treat

[reformed nice guy]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

DOW trying for -2000.00

Who wants them to keep up the good work for our open tomorrow or have we had enough yet? 

I got Exxon below $45 today, looks like Il get Chevron below $80 either today or tomorrow.

 

[Agent ZigZag]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

I understand the sentiment but I think that will be quite a sad day! This thread and your posts have given me much to learn and think about.  I can see why you'd want a well-deserved break from it all though. Hopefully this site is still here in 2027...

Oh I sure it will be still here as we will all be shitting ourselves as there will be talk of the markets shutting down and governments taking over/nationalising all assets or some such like. That will be the big deflationary bust that no one has an answer to and is being put off

[Democorruptcy]

Talking about if they did sports events behind closed doors the broadcasters might do it free to air! WTF! I thought BT Sport might make a few quid! They sort of need it!

[Agent ZigZag]

31 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Oh I sure it will be still here as we will all be shitting ourselves as there will be talk of the markets shutting down and governments taking over/nationalising all assets or some such like. That will be the big deflationary bust that no one has an answer to and is being put off

This is why I am retiring. Live it up a little for the moment. Ive paid the tax now I am about to go completely off grid

[Harley]

Been busy working through stock screeners and research today for a total return portfolio (so div important but not the only factor).

For review and comment only.  Not advice.  Any surprises in the results?  Any flaws/improvements?

Used the FT.com data.

An example of Oil & Gas producers:

. Took the top 20 stocks (by market cap) in the industry.

.  Filter #'1: Deselected stocks not on a suitable exchange.

.  Filter #2: Selected the most accessible and/or liquid exchange for each stock.

.  Filter #3: Deselected stocks with a dividend yield below the average of the top 20.

.  Filter #4: Top three scoring remaining stocks based on 5 year movements of key financial measures:

  . One point for a year to year up (opposite for debt)

  . Except for YTY cash flow increases if they're still negative

  . Score is percentage of maximum score (equal weight to each measure).

Results:

Green means:

. Sector = Accumulate

. Stock exchange = Tradeable

. Dividend = Above average for the 20 stocks

. Financial measures = Above average for the 20 stocks

. Score = Top 3

Note:  Not impressed with the sector cash flow performance.

Think I better do OIl & Gas Services next!

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Not as easy to me. Remember that the exact same argument ("it's too high, it needs to collapse, rawrrr!") was being made in 2015, with SP500 at 2k. Turns out no matter how exorbitant indices seem to be, then can always go higher. Way higher. It's true for stock just as it is for real estate.

So, at 3300 the downturn wasn't any more obvious than it was at 2000. It was dead certain both times, but it has already proven wrong once and we're yet to see if it's going to be proven right this time.

Yeah, i thought 2016 was the year, what no-one knew was the depths that CB's would go to keep it propped up.

I think that the somersaults the markets are currently doing is a good indication of why!

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

This is why I am retiring. Live it up a little for the moment. Ive paid the tax now I am about to go completely off grid

99.9% haven't even begun to think of the societal and personal impact a full blown pandemic might have, it will change lot of lives and a lot of plans, if people see anybody over XX age being triage blocked from ICU (it has happened in Wuhan and is happening in N Italy) then will be quite a different world. Priorities will be reset as will belief/trust in cradle  to grave care. 

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

This is why I am retiring. Live it up a little for the moment. Ive paid the tax now I am about to go completely off grid

Welcome to my world!

[Wheeler]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been busy working through stock screeners and research today for a total return portfolio (so div important but not the only factor).

For review and comment only.  Not advice.  Any surprises in the results?  Any flaws/improvements?

Used the FT.com data.

An example of Oil & Gas producers:

. Took the top 20 stocks (by market cap) in the industry.

.  Filter #'1: Deselected stocks not on a suitable exchange.

.  Filter #2: Selected the most accessible and/or liquid exchange for each stock.

.  Filter #3: Deselected stocks with a dividend yield below the average of the top 20.

.  Filter #4: Top three scoring remaining stocks based on 5 year movements of key financial measures:

  . One point for a year to year up (opposite for debt)

  . Except for YTY cash flow increases if they're still negative

  . Score is percentage of maximum score (equal weight to each measure).

Results:

Green means:

. Sector = Accumulate

. Stock exchange = Tradeable

. Dividend = Above average for the 20 stocks

. Financial measures = Above average for the 20 stocks

. Score = Top 3

Note:  Not impressed with the sector cash flow performance.

Think I better do OIl & Gas Services next!

Interesting @Harley. I’m not too sure about the colouring of the score column as you’ve got some higher scores that aren’t green e.g. Novatek at 75% is the highest. Are you applying some other criteria?

[Majorpain]

41 minutes ago, Harley said:

Fab list, ive got RDSB, BP, Total, Repsol and Eni on my buy list so far.  Poss Exxon and Chevron depending on how they cope with the deflation.

Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil ill take a look at, i didnt realise they were LSE listed!

Anything Chinese is of no interest to me, as far as im concerned the CCP own 100% of it and are merely renting it out for the time being.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

#MeToo but shite price!  II RDSB order still pending.  Hell, II still pending fill & kill orders!

Bit confused (new to online share buying)...I thought if you were buying `manually` (as opposed to an automatic limit buy) you are presented with a screen price and have 15 secs to buy at that price?!...are you saying that you did this and then the order was filled at a higher price?...if this is the case and someone above waited a hour then for RDSB the final price could have been 120p more this morning!

[Harley]

36 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

Interesting @Harley. I’m not too sure about the colouring of the score column as you’ve got some higher scores that aren’t green e.g. Novatek at 75% is the highest. Are you applying some other criteria?

Novatek is not in the top 3 because it's dividend yield is less than the average for the 20 stocks.

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Bit confused (new to online share buying)...I thought if you were buying `manually` (as opposed to an automatic limit buy) you are presented with a screen price and have 15 secs to buy at that price?!...are you saying that you did this and then the order was filled at a higher price?...if this is the case and someone above waited a hour then for RDSB the final price could have been 120p more this morning!

I was trading on several platforms at the same time!  I did a fill or kill on II and it just sat there like an open market order!  So I cancelled it.  I got filled only on open market orders, but later after the price had gone up from that at which I had placed my order.

[DoINeedOne]

57 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been busy working through stock screeners and research today for a total return portfolio (so div important but not the only factor).

Read a report about lukoil recently seemed decent also think @sancho panza has mentioned them previously too can't buy in a ISA though only available in a normal stocks account