Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[kibuc]

8 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

How about renters..? They should also be getting a rent holiday but they won't...

They might do if they ask for it  When you're in trouble, be upfront about it with your landlord and you might be surprised. After all, allowing a delayed payment is much better business than kicking the tennant out and not receiving any.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

Italy suspends mortgage payments!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-economy-mortgage-payments-symptoms-lockdown-latest-a9389486.html

I begin to think buying a property is the best investment ever as the government (using taxpayer money, printed money or whatever...) will always help you..!

It's now here too!

Coronavirus: RBS to allow customers to defer mortgage payments

Quote

Taxpayer-owned bank RBS will allow borrowers affected by the coronavirus outbreak to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months.

The bank, which runs the RBS, NatWest, and Ulster Bank brands, also said savers could close fixed savings accounts early with no charge.

This is designed to allow people to access cash if they need it as the impact of the virus is felt.

Extra support for businesses was announced by the bank on Monday.

Other support for individuals facing financial difficulties owing to the virus includes:

• Refunds on credit card cash advance fees
• The option of applying for an temporarily increased credit card borrowing limit
• Asking for an increased cash withdrawal limit of up to £500

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51817947

[BearyBear]

9 minutes ago, kibuc said:

They might do if they ask for it  When you're in trouble, be upfront about it with your landlord and you might be surprised. After all, allowing a delayed payment is much better business than kicking the tennant out and not receiving any.

Same applies to mortgages, you can always go to your bank to discuss that. But... only the mortgage payments are addressed by the gov as if renters had no monthly obligations or had some skills to magically cope themselves when losing an income...

[JMD]

17 hours ago, Harley said:

Been busy working through stock screeners and research today for a total return portfolio (so div important but not the only factor).

For review and comment only.  Not advice.  Any surprises in the results?  Any flaws/improvements?

Used the FT.com data.

An example of Oil & Gas producers:

. Took the top 20 stocks (by market cap) in the industry.

.  Filter #'1: Deselected stocks not on a suitable exchange.

.  Filter #2: Selected the most accessible and/or liquid exchange for each stock.

.  Filter #3: Deselected stocks with a dividend yield below the average of the top 20.

.  Filter #4: Top three scoring remaining stocks based on 5 year movements of key financial measures:

  . One point for a year to year up (opposite for debt)

  . Except for YTY cash flow increases if they're still negative

  . Score is percentage of maximum score (equal weight to each measure).

Results:

Green means:

. Sector = Accumulate

. Stock exchange = Tradeable

. Dividend = Above average for the 20 stocks

. Financial measures = Above average for the 20 stocks

. Score = Top 3

Note:  Not impressed with the sector cash flow performance.

Think I better do OIl & Gas Services next!

Great info. Harley, thank you for posting this. Charts and graphs are worth a 1000 words. Though even those instruments can be 'spun', i.e. log vs exp. graphs. 

[BadAlchemy]

40 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

How about renters..? They should also be getting a rent holiday but they won't...

Hey! What about those of us who have paid off our mortgages, what do we get? A knuckle sandwich probably 

I'm not very good at this being a debt slave game. I'm doing it all wrong. Wouldn't it be useful right now if mortgages and rents didn't take up so much of people's monthly incomes... maybe be under less financial stress or maybe have built up a little buffer for a rainy day perhaps. Radical!

Watching crony capitalism/socialism unravel before our eyes....

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 minute ago, BadAlchemy said:

Hey! What about those of us who have paid off our mortgages, what do we get? A knuckle sandwich probably 

I'm not very good at this being a debt slave game. I'm doing it all wrong. Wouldn't it be useful right now if mortgages and rents didn't take up so much of people's monthly incomes... maybe be under less financial stress or maybe have built up a little buffer for a rainy day perhaps. Radical!

Watching crony capitalism/socialism unravel before our eyes....

council tax -> canceled

[kibuc]

16 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Same applies to mortgages, you can always go to your bank to discuss that. But... only the mortgage payments are addressed by the gov as if renters had no monthly obligations or had some skills to magically cope themselves when losing an income...

Is that really the govt deferring those payments? I might have misread the article but it seems it's the banks coming forward with it and the minister only annoucing it. I don't even see how the govt could possibly have any power to do that.

[CVG]

4 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Is that really the govt deferring those payments? I might have misread the article but it seems it's the banks coming forward with it and the minister only annoucing it. I don't even see how the govt could possibly have any power to do that.

In RBS's case, aren't the government the major shareholder?

 

[kibuc]

Just now, CVG said:

In RBS's case, aren't the government the major shareholder?

 

My point is it isn't done through legislation. I'd feel somewhat uncomfortable with the idea of govt using legislation to change a binding contract between two parties.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

To be fair, if there ever is a good justification for debt holiday, for me this would be it - an external, once-in-a-blue-moon event impossible to foresee.

 

And rents? 

14 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Hey! What about those of us who have paid off our mortgages, what do we get? A knuckle sandwich probably 

I'm not very good at this being a debt slave game. I'm doing it all wrong. Wouldn't it be useful right now if mortgages and rents didn't take up so much of people's monthly incomes... maybe be under less financial stress or maybe have built up a little buffer for a rainy day perhaps. Radical!

Watching crony capitalism/socialism unravel before our eyes....

Generally, they'll be the ones dead 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

22 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes and dont be fobbed off tell them the order was in and BP has been below the price several times today.

called HL today took forever to get through, anyway they tell me they got my email, however they CANNOT always get the price at a time of market volatility!

so i asked how come ALL the other orders went through? was just fobbed off with the same BS, so i said i expect to get my BP order and i will hear from them when its done. he just responded with 'we'll look into it'

@DurhamBorn is there any other action i can take with HL?

[onlyme]

6 minutes ago, kibuc said:

My point is it isn't done through legislation. I'd feel somewhat uncomfortable with the idea of govt using legislation to change a binding contract between two parties.

The banks would be stupid not to do such a thing anyway, forced sales from flood on market of deceased properties and bankrupts, their loan portfolio would be upside down in a few months. In case of pandemic situations (a serious one) you'd expect governments to take some decisions too.

[kibuc]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

And rents? 

As I said, if you've trouble paying rent, talk to your landlord, the same like you'd do with your mortgage (or any other obligation).

I haven't seen any indication that the banks are legally forced to offer that deferral - it looks like a volountary and, frankly, reasonable business decision and/or PR excercise. If your landlord figures it makes more sense to offer you some respite instead of searching for a new tenant, they might do the same.

[BearyBear]

16 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Hey! What about those of us who have paid off our mortgages, what do we get? A knuckle sandwich probably 

I'm not very good at this being a debt slave game. I'm doing it all wrong. Wouldn't it be useful right now if mortgages and rents didn't take up so much of people's monthly incomes... maybe be under less financial stress or maybe have built up a little buffer for a rainy day perhaps. Radical!

Watching crony capitalism/socialism unravel before our eyes....

You can always 'release equity'  or move to a bigger house using a new mortgage.

[JMD]

16 hours ago, Tdog said:

|ve learnt i should have stuck to plan A ... which i said on here when i started saving into my sipp a could of years ago ...ie wait for the bust.

Easy t get worried about cash being trashed in this financial system.

Think we can say, cash is not trash at the moment.

Tdog, I have similar thoughts especially after recent market action. But I am a newbie to all this, and know that without investing and risking my capitol, I would not have learned. Painful lessons though because I am currently left owning some stocks, like mid-cap oilies, that I don't want to hold long term... just hoping for a meltup to enable me to get rid of them.  

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, onlyme said:

The banks would be stupid not to do such a thing anyway, forced sales from flood on market of deceased properties and bankrupts, their loan portfolio would be upside down in a few months. In case of pandemic situations (a serious one) you'd expect governments to take some decisions too.

Extend and pretend. It won’t end well.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 minutes ago, kibuc said:

As I said, if you've trouble paying rent, talk to your landlord, the same like you'd do with your mortgage (or any other obligation).

I haven't seen any indication that the banks are legally forced to offer that deferral - it looks like a volountary and, frankly, reasonable business decision and/or PR excercise. If your landlord figures it makes more sense to offer you some respite instead of searching for a new tenant, they might do the same.

Maybe this'll be the straw that blows up the camel. 

 

Bankers keeping their slaves in clover with the young gwt chucked out. 

 

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Extend and pretend. It won’t end well.

Under the circumstances probably the best solution though. Propping and sucking up to the stock market, useless, in fact worse than useless as it has hidden the real immediate problem and prevented appropriate action being taken earlier.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

called HL today took forever to get through, anyway they tell me they got my email, however they CANNOT always get the price at a time of market volatility!

so i asked how come ALL the other orders went through? was just fobbed off with the same BS, so i said i expect to get my BP order and i will hear from them when its done. he just responded with 'we'll look into it'

@DurhamBorn is there any other action i can take with HL?

Not really,it seems the whole industry has its feet on a desk smoking a cigar.HL are about the best,but even they have their moments.If you chase them up they usually sort things though.

The nest way to get through quick to HL is press dial at 3 seconds to 8am.It takes 3 seconds to connect,1 second before that it says they are shut.Im always the first call they get,they answer and its not even 1 second past 8 

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not really,it seems the whole industry has its feet on a desk smoking a cigar.HL are about the best,but even they have their moments.If you chase them up they usually sort things though.

The nest way to get through quick to HL is press dial at 3 seconds to 8am.It takes 3 seconds to connect,1 second before that it says they are shut.Im always the first call they get,they answer and its not even 1 second past 8 

I imagine their systems are a whole world apart from what they were in 2000 - yes here were online trading platforms  but large amount of trades over the phone, bet they run pretty much skeleton staff now on telephone dealing, as soon as market volume picks up they will be inundated. 

[JMD]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

My data for the Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution industry for review and comment only (please, not investment advice).

A tricky one given the MLPs.  FT.com has no financial data so I sourced from Morningstar.

But my concern is how MLPs "distort" the rankings as they pay out good dividends so push the non-MLP companies out of the top spots.

Worse is I thought I read once that UK taxpayers don't get the full dividend (anyone know about this?).

So I have included the top three with MLPs (green) and without (orange) MLPs (but all scores compared against sector averages include the MLP data). 

Actually more than three given some draws.

Same methodology as before.

Comments please.

re comments... just a thought Harley - but would there perhaps be chance of including a score/metric for future debt obligations? I believe that short-term and long-term debt are important considerations re. corporate viability?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not really,it seems the whole industry has its feet on a desk smoking a cigar.HL are about the best,but even they have their moments.If you chase them up they usually sort things though.

The nest way to get through quick to HL is press dial at 3 seconds to 8am.It takes 3 seconds to connect,1 second before that it says they are shut.Im always the first call they get,they answer and its not even 1 second past 8 

...YOU would know would ya!!!

anyway just recived this email from HL:

 

Dear Mr Yellow_Reduced_Sticker,

Thank you for your enquiry.

We note that you input a buy limit for BP. at 305.00 p. Having reviewed your order we agree that the LSE price was observed to move through your limit yesterday morning, unfortunately the service was unable to fill the order before the price had subsequently moved.

The limit minding facility is not a guaranteed service. This means we cannot guarantee that a stop loss or limit order will be executed, even if the share price reaches the limit price or stop price you have set.

Further information on the limit service is available at http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-dealing/limits. We hope this is useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you require anything further on this topic.

Kind Regards
Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers

 

...SO Looks like i can do SFA?

 

[Alex]

23 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

The limit minding facility is not a guaranteed service. This means we cannot guarantee that a stop loss or limit order will be executed, even if the share price reaches the limit price or stop price you have set.

I'm pretty sure this has been true for every broker I've used. Sometimes the liquidity just isn't there to match an order, and that's not the broker's fault (although liquidity may not have been an issue this time, clearly).

[JMD]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

A pressie for @DurhamBorn as he asked for telecoms.  Actually just the mobile industry.  Fixed line to follow, which hopefully will have more cheer.  A bit shocked by VOD!

Again, not advice, just for review and comment - let's get some thoughts flowing! 

your a machine Harley!  ...shouldn't sk telecom yield column say 5%? Silly question but why are Vodaphones assets so low, in calculating that figure do you net off its debt?

[JMD]

7 hours ago, TheNickos said:

$2 a gallon, could you imagine ever paying that here!

I don't know the specific figures, but most of UK petrol price is taxes ( something crazy like 90% I believe).