Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

45 minutes ago, Harley said:

This is getting a bit addictive (wierd I know), but their preparation gives me a useful insight. 

None of this is investment advice and I don't always agree with the scores in terms of what I would do next but it gives a strawman to discuss.

So here is the mining sector for review and comment only.

Same methodology as before.

I would much rather the FT data was split into further industries such as precious metal miners as this seems too broad.  I'm also being a bit lazy assuming I can trade Hong Kong stocks and personally, I probably wouldn't want to anyway so that would change things. Disappointed by Kirkland Lake Gold as it was scoring well but lacked the dividend.  Maybe some flexibility needed.  I already have positions in BHP and RIO in my income portfolios so need to look closer a AAL.  But I really want some precious metal miners in the mix (or just give up and buy GDX, etc).  One sector I would like to widen the net, maybe down to the top 40 market caps, or try and split out by sub-sectors (like they have on Investing.com).  I went with FT.com because I can do one search across all exchanges but am then restricted in the granularity of their industry classifications.  Maybe worth doing the legwork for a few key areas using Investing.com.

PS: I also own Glencore in my income portfolio but maybe those scores show the dangers in chasing yield!

Yes, would be interesting to compare the smaller miners like-for-like with the above 'big boys' - so for example the different metal producers such as copper, platinum, zinc, and not to forget DB's favourite (and mine!) Norsk Hydro for aluminium. I'm still looking into these smaller miners but do intend to have a commodity portfolio of large and small miners. 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, confused said:

THIS IS NOT FUCKING NORMAL!!!! 

Au contraire, this is the new normal!

[BearyBear]

2 minutes ago, confused said:

OK interesting point......but we are in truly mad times when everyone is getting excited about an ANNUAL 9% divi payment, yet the stock goes up 10% and down 10% in one day! That's a 20% move IN ONE DAY!

Also bear in mind, when a stock falls 50% it needs to gain 100% to get back to its original value!!!! This is why you shouldn't trade without a stop! imo 

At the bottom of the GFC I've seen a stock that was offering 50% divi, no kidding... when there is lack of liquidity or lack of trust, nobody looks at fundamentals, they need cash now!

[JMD]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thanks for that.  Very interesting.  The one you point to is their listing on the South Korean stock exchange.  It comes up on the FT.com screen with the NYSE one but both show no div.  Looking further, Morningstar shows the NYSE one (and the UK) one is an ADR not a full listing and has a mere 0.44% yield.  So presumably you'll need to buy on the South Korean exchange to get the full yield.  That does not however explain why the South Korean one comes up on the FT.com screen but with a blank yield and it can't find any details of the stock when you click on it 9only the US version).  Seems I'm still searching for the perfect data stream!  SK Telecom would be a serious contender on the list if I included the full dividend but then would fail on the basis (valid?) that we could not buy it (i.e. do we generally (i.e. using mainstream brokers and not paying additional exchange fees) have access to the South Korean exchange?).  One of my objectives of doing this was to test the advantage funds are meant to have in being able to access markets we can't.  Here might be an example, although overall this is not yet a noticeable problem (especially if you don't want to invest in China).

I agree that better option is to stick to main/liquid exchanges, but now I'm confused... This is the one I own, it shows a 5% (approx.) dividend, and I had assumed I was buying it on the NYSE as its priced in USD.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/sk-telecom-adr-rep-1-9-krw500citspons

 

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, would be interesting to compare the smaller miners like-for-like with the above 'big boys' - so for example the different metal producers such as copper, platinum, zinc, and not to forget DB's favourite (and mine!) Norsk Hydro for aluminium. I'm still looking into these smaller miners but do intend to have a commodity portfolio of large and small miners. 

Thinking on it a bit more......

I'm looking for total return stocks for a (relatively conservative) SIPP portfolio and am happy to stick with the major players in each sector but tilt towards sectors I think are well supported by the macro themes discussed here.  However, I would like to get further down the tree so maybe I should have separate (higher risk) trading type portfolio for these types of stocks.  By ring fencing these stocks in a separate portfolio (physical or just segregated) I can better control risk (e.g. limit the amount of allocated capital, etc).  Understanding these risk:reward:allocation balances are IMO key to successful investing

[nirvana]

21 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

At the bottom of the GFC

What the one in the 1920s!!?? Blimey mate you've been around a while, Iet me know what your diet is!? 

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree that better option is to stick to main/liquid exchanges, but now I'm confused... This is the one I own, it shows a 5% (approx.) dividend, and I had assumed I was buying it on the NYSE as its priced in USD.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/sk-telecom-adr-rep-1-9-krw500citspons

So I checked another source, which does show a 3.9% yield for SKM on the NYSE.  Must be something about the Morningstar data!  Pretty sure you've bought the US one as pretty sure HL don't do Korea!  Just a final check, have you seen any of the div money yet?!!!!!

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I would like to say America steel, but probably not! 

Re. SK Telecom, FT.com says zero dividend yield.  I just cross checked with Morningstar who are showing 0.47%.  Where are you getting 5% please?

Re. Vodafone, which assets are you referring to?  Market cap?  That's the share price, not asset valuation.  I'm not showing any other asset figure.  But the asset figure I did look at for the asset score was total balance sheet assets (which equals liabilities) and it is scored zero out of a possible 4 because it has gone down in each of the last five years, much to my surprise.  Much of that fall seems to be due to reduced fixed (tangible and intangible) assets, which some might see as good but in pure theoretical accounting terms it should be neutral (depreciation/amortisation is meant to ensure the matching of the fall in their value (consumption) against the income that consumption generates).  As mentioned, quite unusual to see falling asset values over the five years.  It would be nice to see that as proper accounting/prudence, something which would bode well in any future involving a purge of excess asset valuations across sectors.  I would need to delve deeper to get an idea but am happy holding them for now in my income portfolio (which is largely buy and forget, currently being very forget!).

They’ve written off the value of Vodafone India to zero.

[JMD]

21 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thinking on it a bit more......

I'm looking for total return stocks for a (relatively conservative) SIPP portfolio and am happy to stick with the major players in each sector but tilt towards sectors I think are well supported by the macro themes discussed here.  However, I would like to get further down the tree so maybe I should have separate (higher risk) trading type portfolio for these types of stocks.  By ring fencing these stocks in a separate portfolio (physical or just segregated) I can better control risk (e.g. limit the amount of allocated capital, etc).  Understanding these risk:reward:allocation balances are IMO key to successful investing

Absolutely agree, personally I am not looking to replicate again the mistake I made in oil/energy sector by attempting to select mid-cap players that - promised more reward - but essentially mainly just carried too much additional risk compared to their larger (and more diversified) brothers/sisters (non-binary!) cousins.  

 

[CVG]

1 hour ago, confused said:

OK interesting point......but we are in truly mad times when everyone is getting excited about an ANNUAL 9% divi payment, yet the stock goes up 10% and down 10% in one day! That's a 20% move IN ONE DAY!

Also bear in mind, when a stock falls 50% it needs to gain 100% to get back to its original value!!!! This is why you shouldn't trade without a stop! imo 

I think that it's the traders who ar egetting excited about 10% price swings while investors get excited about the dividend and care little about the daily price movements.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, confused said:

What's that? Used to like Duran Duran!

 

I think it is this Duran Duran.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Howz that bloody cat? 

 

This ain't gonna end. 

 

My spiv in the city has been told the city is going into lock down this week and to expect a massive bailout. 

 

The spivery if London is a real problem for 99% of the uk. 

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

a massive bailout

what sort of bailout? Money for the bankers so they can buy more shares? Not sure that'll work, UK being the 51st state of the USA will just follow uncle sam down....

Now if they introduce a law where the FED and the BOE can buy the stock market directly, that might work for a while??? 

[Bobthebuilder]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

Infrastructure spendy. Roads, rail, broadband etc.

[BadAlchemy]

20 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

Infrastructure spendy. Roads, rail, broadband etc.

"...by the middle of 2025..."

We have to wait that long?

GE 2019: "Vote for us or you won't get 'Brexit'"

GE 2024/5: "Vote for us or you won't get the shiny new infrastructure"

Same old Tories...

[nirvana]

36 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

Infrastructure spendy. Roads, rail, broadband etc.

Dude that sort of spending takes YEARS to filter through!!!!

Edit @BadAlchemy beat me to it!!

The infrastructure in the UK is totally shite......they would do well to rip it all up and start again! 

I remember travelling on a TGV in France OVER 30 years ago and it was doing over 250kmh then!!

And I worked for what was British Rail for a while, what a complete load o shite that was too....they should have had more freight on the rail network for decades but that's a complete FUCK UP TOO!!!!" Soz I'm getting depressed again.... 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, confused said:

what sort of bailout? Money for the bankers so they can buy more shares? Not sure that'll work, UK being the 51st state of the USA will just follow uncle sam down....

Now if they introduce a law where the FED and the BOE can buy the stock market directly, that might work for a while??? 

Stimulus he called it... Make of that what you will.  I coukd ask but my skin crawls talking to spivs and BTLers so try and avoid whenever possible 

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

Infrastructure spendy. Roads, rail, broadband etc.

Any spades near or in the ground? Or just starting the decades of legal challenges?

[onlyme]

Any western government that prioritises the economy above this situation is fucked to oblivion. 

: https://www.instagram.com/p/B9gmYPLJFt_/

I am a nurse and right now I am facing this medical emergency. I'm afraid too, but not of going shopping, I'm afraid to go to work. I am afraid because the mask may not adhere well to the face, or I may have accidentally touched myself with dirty gloves, or maybe the lenses do not completely cover my eyes and something may have passed.

I am physically tired because the protective devices hurt, the lab coat makes me sweat and once dressed I can no longer go to the bathroom or drink for six hours. I am psychologically tired, as are all my colleagues who have been in the same condition for weeks, but this will not prevent us from doing our job as we have always done. I will continue to take care of my patients, because I am proud of and in love with my job. What I ask anyone who is reading this post is not to undo the effort we are making, to be selfless, to stay at home and thus protect those who are most fragile. We young people are not immune to coronavirus, we too can get sick, or worse, we can infect. I can't afford the luxury of going back to my house quarantined, I have to go to work and do my part. You do yours, I ask you please.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Is that #### carney pulling the chancellors strings? 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

 

Its carneys preferred mechanism to avoid a liquidity trap. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

Any spades near or in the ground? Or just starting the decades of legal challenges?

Infrastructure, houses...lots of over priced houses. 

 

Im leavinh the uk again when my contract is up. This place is #####ed

 

Trillions in debt, so theyll borrow or steal to build stuff we don't need for people wjo shouldn't be here. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

Problem being the left wing and eco nutters will be taking them to court for any large project thus delaying things.

But as the stock market burns, the UK housing market seemingly continues unabated. 

Spoke to a friend of mine who has listed there house ar 4x what they could realistically afford to pay for it.

 

I thought they would get 0 viewings 

 

8 viewings in 3 weeks, no offers tho as they are really chancing their arm. At the price listed tho you'd be mad to even view it. 

This is in the sw where things were starting to fall apart. 

 

Boris bounce or are they putting something in the water. 

[Sugarlips]

12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

Im leavinh the uk again when my contract is up. This place is #####ed

 

Where you headed Count? Grass is always greener...

I considered returning to Bournemouth as there’s still no work for me here in Perth but I’m priced out, at least the climate and open space is favorable for me here.

Just had one of the few mates I’ve made here tell me they’re off back to Kent mainly cause of the lack of work here, he gave it a decade. he’s going to realize a stonking loss on the sale of his house here so will essentially be starting from scratch as a brickie at age 50, frightening.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Where you headed Count? Grass is always greener...

I considered returning to Bournemouth as there’s still no work for me here in Perth but I’m priced out, at least the climate and open space is favorable for me here.

Just had one of the few mates I’ve made here tell me they’re off back to Kent mainly cause of the lack of work here, he gave it a decade. he’s going to realize a stonking loss on the sale of his house here so will essentially be starting from scratch as a brickie at age 50, frightening.

Back to France. 

I thought i was bored so took some work back in the uk but i think I may have confused bored with content and happiness 

 

Its shit and stressful here. 

 

[Barnsey]

THIS from GS is v interesting!