Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

This is the key. The longer this goes on it increases the chances of some of them going bust.

Some might/will,though we are aiming at companies that should feel the spending increase quickly.CBs might/will fund corporate debt i expect.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, confused said:

@TheCountOfNowhere I concur mate but the sheeple don't give a shit!

Did you participate in the Wall Street, City of London protests, did you listen to Eric Cantona when he said boycott the banks?

If not stop bloody complaining and get fooking trading/investing! 

LADIES PUT THE HANDBAGS DOWN WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!!

Ive been fighting the banks for years now 

Im happy to trade, right now i think its time to wait. 

I think the coronavirus will be a double whammy so id be wary about loading up today. 

 

Uve said many times on tgis thread, i dobt get why people are investing while we see a collapse tp come. 

 

Has the collapse happened.... No, not in my book. I could be wrong, i have many times before 

[Democorruptcy]

25 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

I don’t recall saying that’s what I wanted. Post what you like, I’ll do the same. Why do you want to gag me?

Last comment on this because you are on ignore in a moment.

The gagging post was yours, telling others what they should and shouldn't be discussing in this thread. When Carney/House prices and the effect of the virus are relevant to many, who you could just put on ignore.

Quote

"Most likely just keeping out of the thread whilst it’s spammed about Carney / House Prices / Virus. This isn’t supposed to be general chat."

 

[Barnsey]

FTSE 100 almost in the red pre-budget 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Ive been fighting the banks for years now 

Im happy to trade, right now i think its time to wait. 

I think the coronavirus will be a double whammy so id be wary about loading up today. 

 

Uve said many times on tgis thread, i dobt get why people are investing while we see a collapse tp come. 

 

Has the collapse happened.... No, not in my book. I could be wrong, i have many times before 

Yes,markets have collapsed in many cases,but hidden within the index.Telcos for instance.Vodafone,BT,Telefonica and Telia.Add them together they are worth 10% of Amazon.One can exist without the other,one cant exist without the other.Where will the pricing power switch to in a reflation?,

Thats the key of this thread,we can only try to road map a likely route,then cross market to try to avoid as much of the falls as well can.Id be very very happy if when im positioned i end up down 20% when things turn.Truth is when i was younger in a club id go for the best looking woman first,straight in,then work back if knocked back.I never aim to lose.I aim to win,but i accept winning sometimes involves losing the first few rounds,and one day breathing a last breath.Just the way life is,and i love life,the downs as much as the ups.

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

This is what I meant when I say "keep their cost base under control". The industry is still running tight. My canary is when food starts getting bought in for meetings. Hasn't happened for years.

I've seen other similar analyses from well respected consultancies (that I can't publish here) with the same capex + divi breakevens, most in the 40s. I think Repsols was in the high 30s. 

And thats an average for the whole year. The major companies discussed here will weather this just fine.

 

CattleProd, i note that Exxon's oil costs are high, but is this mostly due to a 'strategic' underinvestment and they plan to pivot/exploit their natural gas reserves (2nd only to Gazprom, and located mainly in the US I believe) in future? I have done some reading into the industry, but realise a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, so if I have this utterly wrong am happy to be corrected by your 'insider' expertise.    

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I understand your point of view and I hate the cronyism + misallocation of our taxes.

However, a lot of what is said in this thread is against the system:

buy second hand when you can to avoid VAT, try to avoid living in the most overinflated areas if you can, yellow stickers, grow your own food, repair your own car, maximise pension benefits if older, top up NI by being a carer, dont take a promotion if the stress would be unbearable etc.

Even doing a few of those things sets you against the grain.

Absolutely! I've learnt a lot here which is why I keep coming back!

And I can assure you having gone from a council house in the north east, to a six figure salary, to being fucked over in a divorce there are very few out there who are as 'against the grain' as me citizen!! 

[Lavalas]

16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Last comment on this because you are on ignore in a moment.

The gagging post was yours, telling others what they should and shouldn't be discussing in this thread. When Carney/House prices and the effect of the virus are relevant to many, who you could just put on ignore.

 

Please do make it the last. A bizarre chat about your career history wasn’t exactly on my agenda for the day.

I didn't gag anyone. I have no power to do that. I simply responded to a post by someone else. Anyone is free to post ‘banker scum lol’ to their hearts content.

 

[nirvana]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They will monetize most of the debt in the system

This is an interesting expression and one I remember down the pub, a long time ago. OK so in definition terms it's about 'government debt' but it's been going ballistic for years! Obama racked up more US debt in his 8 years in office than the rest of the US debt since the dawn of the US itself!

In reality everything is monetized now! Look at our offsprings education as an example......

It's all FUBAR!!

[Democorruptcy]

Boris Johnson just said wait and see what we are doing in the budget to help every young person get on the housing ladder. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Ftse gone negative. 

Please sir, can i have some more

[DoINeedOne]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Boris Johnson just said wait and see what we are doing in the budget to help every young person get on the housing ladder. 

[nirvana]

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Ftse gone negative. 

Please sir, can i have some more

yes here's a fifty note to wipe your arse but that's your last so piss off now 

[BearyBear]

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My son is buying now,and will exchange in 3 weeks,10 year fix at 2.64% with 10% overpayments and after 5 years another 5 years of fix with no tie and 100% overpayments allowed.They will be paying more for 3 years than needed,but by year 7 i expect rates to be 9%.They are going to try to over pay it down a lot and have silver as a hedge.If rates are 9% id expect the silver to at least 5x and they will sell and pay the house off.

Good for him... I hope this strategy will work as planned..!

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Alifelessbinary said:

There’s seems to be a lot of general moaning rather than a focused discussion on how to traverse through these issues.

Yes house prices are too high, yes the government continues to defend debtors and not savers, but times are now changing. Now is the time as a retail investor to organise your portfolio to deal with the coming events.

DB’s approach with his kids regarding housing is spot on. If one market doesn’t work for you there are always alternative options.

I did warn that this fantastic thread would end up this way...

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

I did warn that this fantastic thread would end up this way...

OK Einstein what are you buying/selling???

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Boris Johnson just said wait and see what we are doing in the budget to help every young person get on the housing ladder. 

Heaven help us

[BearyBear]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Boris Johnson just said wait and see what we are doing in the budget to help every young person get on the housing ladder. 

125% HTB..?

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, confused said:

OK Einstein what are you buying/selling???

Infrastructure shares to hopefully get some of that £600 billion by 2025.

[nirvana]

I'm listening to that new cunt on the radio (aka my amazing raspberry pi running moodeaudio ) blah blah the ONS says growth will be up 1% next year bollox...

One fundamental problem with humans is they reckon they can predict the future, that's why most folk can't 'trade', they can't accept being wrong....

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

125% HTB..?

Free house for everyone that they need to pay for over 3 generations 

[nirvana]

No more tampon tax! Hurrah!!!

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

My son is buying now,and will exchange in 3 weeks,10 year fix at 2.64% with 10% overpayments and after 5 years another 5 years of fix with no tie and 100% overpayments allowed.They will be paying more for 3 years than needed,but by year 7 i expect rates to be 9%.They are going to try to over pay it down a lot and have silver as a hedge.If rates are 9% id expect the silver to at least 5x and they will sell and pay the house off.

I do wonder why people arent going for long fixes  - 5 or 10 years.

People are very unlikely to borrow at sub 2% rates.

I imaged to get a 5y fix at something nuts like 1.6% just by fluke.

I was going for 10y then got cold feet, as I was planning on overpaying.

2 years left. Mortgage will be cleared in the year after the fix ends. Interest exposure is minimal - talking ~10k left, which I can pay off.

I find the whole ever increasing mortgage terms absolutely fucking nuts.

People dont seem to grasp how banks make money.

I was chatting to my mum the other day,talking about someone we grew up with.

Lives in London, with a good jobs. Not good enough to make London a sane choice but not a shop job.

Id guess - and I dont know 100% - that her n partner must be pulling in 100k between them.

Anywhere else, that would be a great income. But anywhere else and theyd not earn near that money ....

Anyhow, shes worried about her job - big changes, people being cut. Theyve got a .... drum roll ..... 500k mortgage to live in a small 2 brd  council house well out from the centre.

 

I go - They are absolutely fucked. They are late 40s. That mortgage, even at 0% interest, requires them to pay 25k for 20 years, year in, year out.

My mum goes -Well her partner works ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

From The Guardian budget commentary,
"Sunak says debt is forecast to fall over the course of this parliament, going down from 79.5% of GDP this year to 75.2% in 2024-25."

Lolz

[dgul]

Goldman has declared that the bull market is over and next step 2,450.  

Hmm.  Whatever Goldman says...