Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

17 hours ago, Harley said:

So I checked another source, which does show a 3.9% yield for SKM on the NYSE.  Must be something about the Morningstar data!  Pretty sure you've bought the US one as pretty sure HL don't do Korea!  Just a final check, have you seen any of the div money yet?!!!!!

Harley, my mistake - I have two sipps and i own skm in my ii sipp, where it pays 0.45% divi. in june/dec, so haven't yet received it. 

However, this has been interesting for me as HL does show 4.9% and I believe you found 4% on Morning Star. So 3 different divi. figures. Are all these figures in fact correct and it depends on whether you own the stock within a share account/sipp/isa? For example, I was aware that US/International stocks wouldn't always pay the full divi. (withholding tax) depending on where the investor resided, but I am shocked at the difference between 0.45% and 5%!

Or is there more to it and the reason is also because I bought a Singapore stock, traded on a US exchange, and I live in the UK = convolution and dilution (i.e. 'danger' rent seekers at work!)? 

...Hoping that you can explain this (mundane issue?) to me as I am a big convert to the power of dividends and would like to understand this.

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

There you have it. 

 

How is it peopke in the city knew this a day early? 

YO YO YO!! yes we all know on here they are a bunch of corrupt lying motherfuckers!!! 

Right then chaps, now it gets interesting!!!!

Dave on twitter thinks the bottom was in yesterday re stock markets.....

Y'all need to watch carefully to see if the markets can rise from here.......GAME ON! This could be the last game though!!! 

EDIT: don't bicker too much chaps, remember it only takes 2 different opinions to make a market!!! Shame the markets are rigged!! 

[BearyBear]

34 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

Meanwhile......

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-09/oil-plunges-how-much-lower-can-prices-go-video?in_source=tv-wall_user-initiated

$3 a barrel? WTF!

$3...?  that would bring a total collapse of some countries I think!

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Been checking out my work pension, they don't make it simple. Seems like the equity funds are balls deep in Apple, Amazon, Facebook. Fuck. My natural reaction is to get it all moved asap but my employer contributes 12% and I've no idea if they'd pay it into a sipp directly, if they'd have crazy charges to withdraw, if they'd pay the 12% into another fund. It's a fucking minefield and I'm bollocked if I'm owning grands worth of fucking Apple as I watch it collapse. What a time to be alive.

Have you not got a cash fund option? I was mostly 60% in cash fund anyway, but transferred from the FTSE fund when I knew this was going to hit. 

The 5950 zone was my first tranche back in of around 10%. I'll be following it down averaging in with an estimate in the big one down into the 4k zone. Theres a 3 day delay in transferring funds so this isn't ideal.

QE will have the markets up and down like a whores draws, so I'll use my ISA to ride the volatility whilst still holding the reflation infrastructure stocks. 

[JMD]

16 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

"...by the middle of 2025..."

We have to wait that long?

GE 2019: "Vote for us or you won't get 'Brexit'"

GE 2024/5: "Vote for us or you won't get the shiny new infrastructure"

Same old Tories...

Don't forget the £2bn for pothole repair... all we need now is a different team of workmen creating the holes - Keynesianism in action!!

But to be serious, I did ask question recently about what type of spending would we see. I think Boris has had hospital spending up his sleeve for some time - after all he talks about it in clumsy terms and is poked fun off - and this will be where most immediate spending will be. ...though I do suspect that it will be private/public in some way, so investment opportunities perhaps? 

[Democorruptcy]

12 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

No I’m not a school teacher. 

Are you a school teacher?

No, I haven't had any employment at all since 2003 and have made a living from sports betting/financial investments. It's partly why announcements like this interest me. Builders have shares don'tcha know and they have all gone up. I'm glad for any info on here that affects shares or gauges sentiment about things. 

There is an ignore option on here that you can use to add posters from people you don't want to see and you are quite welcome to add me.

Have a nice day.

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

$3...?  that would bring a total collapse of some countries I think!

That's why I don't watch bloomberg anymore.....

[BearyBear]

Meanhile Germany sold 10 year bunds at... -0.77% ! Bid-to-Cover ratio was just 1.o....? That's not looking good! Is Lagarde stting in a beauty salon or what..?

[Lavalas]

10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

No, I haven't had any employment at all since 2003 and have made a living from sports betting/financial investments. It's partly why announcements like this interest me. Builders have shares don'tcha know and they have all gone up. I'm glad for any info on here that affects shares or gauges sentiment about things. 

There is an ignore option on here that you can use to add posters from people you don't want to see and you are quite welcome to add me.

Have a nice day.

Thanks for all that info. Really useful. 

I’ll continue to comment as I wish though, Cheers.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Thats the entire point of this thread, the amount of debt is too big for the economy to support.

The government/CB needs to devalue the debt through QE to allow it to be supported again.

It doesnt matter if its Labour/Conservative/Monster Raving Looney, they would all do it because its that or the economy collapses.

Exactly,and its all unfolding exactly as we thought.First you get rates on the floor,then you inject through fiscal policy,then the CB monetizes the newly printed money so it is direct inflation,then government builds a road,green energy etc.The dis-inflation is now in its death breath.People will be shocked by the printing to come,incredible amounts.The debt cant be paid,the derivatives are a poison.They need to be monetized by CBs.When the market wakes up the movement from treasuries/gilts/debt to assets will be incredible.I hope they spend quickly,at least that gives the companies we are aiming at a better chance of surviving.

[nirvana]

52 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Most likely just keeping out of the thread whilst it’s spammed about Carney / House Prices / Virus. This isn’t supposed to be general chat.

It's not exactly the M25 in here is it????

I only visit 2 threads on dosbods, this and the coronavirus where it's all 'end of days'

What I find interesting here is the denial/blindness about the economic effects of covid19 

@DurhamBorn set out his road map which I have the greatest respect for......

I personally believe that a great big white elephant came and sat down in the middle of the road and I think it's good to talk about this new 'road block'.........echo chambers get a bit boring and can be dangerous for your wealth  what?

[JMD]

16 hours ago, confused said:

Dude that sort of spending takes YEARS to filter through!!!!

Edit @BadAlchemy beat me to it!!

The infrastructure in the UK is totally shite......they would do well to rip it all up and start again! 

I remember travelling on a TGV in France OVER 30 years ago and it was doing over 250kmh then!!

And I worked for what was British Rail for a while, what a complete load o shite that was too....they should have had more freight on the rail network for decades but that's a complete FUCK UP TOO!!!!" Soz I'm getting depressed again.... 

I don't think it will be road/airport infrastructure spending precisely because planning takes too long.

I think it will be energy infrastructure such as nuclear power stations, maybe couple of sea ports, and buildings such as Hospitals, Housing, Highstreets, oh and those potholes!

What are views on how to invest in this if it happens? ...I suppose the big engineering co's, and infrastructure funds/etfs perhaps?

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

My question:

"What would you advice a young working couple who can't afford to buy any property? They are trying to save but HPI constantly beats saving rates offered by banks because of your policies... what should they do?"

My son is buying now,and will exchange in 3 weeks,10 year fix at 2.64% with 10% overpayments and after 5 years another 5 years of fix with no tie and 100% overpayments allowed.They will be paying more for 3 years than needed,but by year 7 i expect rates to be 9%.They are going to try to over pay it down a lot and have silver as a hedge.If rates are 9% id expect the silver to at least 5x and they will sell and pay the house off.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, confused said:

It's not exactly the M25 in here is it????

I only visit 2 threads on dosbods, this and the coronavirus where it's all 'end of days'

What I find interesting here is the denial/blindness about the economic effects of covid19 

@DurhamBorn set out his road map which I have the greatest respect for......

I personally believe that a great big white elephant came and sat down in the middle of the road and I think it's good to talk about this new 'road block'.........echo chambers get a bit boring and can be dangerous for your wealth  what?

Ive said, sit and wait for a couple, 6, months. 

The actions of the bankaters today are frightening tho. 

The pot is empty, all they can do is rob people via QE and tax. 

 

The people should have stopped this madness in 2008, now thet think they can do it with impunity. 

 

Demcracy, they dont give a shit. 

Homeless, they dont give a shit, 

Pensions, they dont give a shit

Housing your family, they dont give a shit. 

The psychos in charge just want power and money abd they'll happily send you and I out to die to protect their position.

Things are about to get much worse for the British people 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,and its all unfolding exactly as we thought.First you get rates on the floor,then you inject through fiscal policy,then the CB monetizes the newly printed money so it is direct inflation,then government builds a road,green energy etc.The dis-inflation is now in its death breath.People will be shocked by the printing to come,incredible amounts.The debt cant be paid,the derivatives are a poison.They need to be monetized by CBs.When the market wakes up the movement from treasuries/gilts/debt to assets will be incredible.I hope they spend quickly,at least that gives the companies we are aiming at a better chance of surviving.

This is the key. The longer this goes on it increases the chances of some of them going bust.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

I don't think it will be road/airport infrastructure spending precisely because planning takes too long.

I think it will be energy infrastructure such as nuclear power stations, maybe couple of sea ports, and buildings such as Hospitals, Housing, Highstreets, oh and those potholes!

What are views on how to invest in this if it happens? ...I suppose the big engineering co's, and infrastructure funds/etfs perhaps?

It will be houses, roads to houses, pipes to houses etc etc etc 

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Thanks for all that info. Really useful. 

I’ll continue to comment as I wish though, Cheers.

You will comment as you like but want to gag others 

[Lavalas]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

You will comment as you like but want to gag others 

I don’t recall saying that’s what I wanted. Post what you like, I’ll do the same. Why do you want to gag me?

[nirvana]

@TheCountOfNowhere I concur mate but the sheeple don't give a shit!

Did you participate in the Wall Street, City of London protests, did you listen to Eric Cantona when he said boycott the banks?

If not stop bloody complaining and get fooking trading/investing! 

LADIES PUT THE HANDBAGS DOWN WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!!

[Alifelessbinary]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Are you a school teacher?

I would say the announcements today matter for a lot of people on here, if it affects their portfolio, housing prospects, etc. Though we all know DB will be along shortly to say it's just noise and they cannot prevent things.

There’s seems to be a lot of general moaning rather than a focused discussion on how to traverse through these issues.

Yes house prices are too high, yes the government continues to defend debtors and not savers, but times are now changing. Now is the time as a retail investor to organise your portfolio to deal with the coming events.

DB’s approach with his kids regarding housing is spot on. If one market doesn’t work for you there are always alternative options.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Barnsey]

Ed Conway shouting we're in recession already on Sky News, i'm sure Carney is loving that.

Even though Carney has emphasised this will be a large, sharp, but temporary shock, he also admitted economic activity will WEAKEN MATERIALLY IN COMING MONTHS. Therefore, temporary shock = recession (which they always are).

Also key to note is that Bailey/Carney have always said they have 2.5% of room to lower via cuts and QE, and this morning stated they've used half of their ammo. They will of course go further, but it helps to gauge how much was used up this morning for such a pathetic response, from the stock market at least.

Slender Man on at 12:30, the hype is very big, very real, so let's see what he can pull off to genuinely satisfy markets.

Also, after hard economic data this morning, turns out the Boris Bounce was absolute bollocks, economy flatlined up to now, so we're starting from a markedly weak position. Only housing seems to have gained a "sentiment driven" bounce. Let's see how that continues with folks losing their jobs and, well, the other factor I don't want to talk about.

[BadAlchemy]

@DurhamBorn what do you think about that article posted earlier... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

Suggests a 'promise' to have £600bn ready to spend... but only by 2025. Seems like politicking to me... i.e. string it out as long as possible to stay in power as long as possible. Does it still fit the timescales of your roadmap or will recent events, and the BoE/Fed etc firing all their ammo now, force them to do massive QE/investment a lot earlier than 2025?

Thanks

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, confused said:

It's not exactly the M25 in here is it????

I only visit 2 threads on dosbods, this and the coronavirus where it's all 'end of days'

What I find interesting here is the denial/blindness about the economic effects of covid19 

@DurhamBorn set out his road map which I have the greatest respect for......

I personally believe that a great big white elephant came and sat down in the middle of the road and I think it's good to talk about this new 'road block'.........echo chambers get a bit boring and can be dangerous for your wealth  what?

I agree the virus will be blamed and might of kicked the last peg away,but the road map doesnt look for what might do it,it looks at the risk of "something" doing it.It could as easy be an accounting scandal at Apple,a nuke plant explodes etc,.

I owe nothing on my house.The risk of the bank taking it is zero.If i owe £1 there is risk,tiny,but risk,if i owe £200k there is huge risk.I get a virus now i go to bed,get it owing a £ i find it down the sofa,get is owing £200k?,

Modern western style economies have two phases,inflation and deflation,or under Fiat,really its dis-inflation.

Right now we are in the opening salvo in a huge debt deflation.The only response,is CB action on a huge scale.It will happen.They will monetize most of the debt in the system.Its not a question of morals,or if its right,if its a "bailout for bankers",its about avoiding 80% unemployment,avoiding mass looting,avoiding the breakdown of the nation state.

The failure of the CBs is they should of been doing this 2 years ago,but governments through running deficits for consumption over investing smoked the mirrors i think and gave a false sense of ticking along ok.

My road maps arent to avoid losses.Loss is part of life.They are to try to get direction,then cross market to try to avoid most of the loss.

Id expect China to turn the spending taps on now as well.Fascinating times.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

@DurhamBorn what do you think about that article posted earlier... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51823021

Suggests a 'promise' to have £600bn ready to spend... but only by 2025. Seems like politicking to me... i.e. string it out as long as possible to stay in power as long as possible. Does it still fit the timescales of your roadmap or will recent events, and the BoE/Fed etc firing all their ammo now, force them to do massive QE/investment a lot earlier than 2025?

Thanks

They will spend £2 trillion probably,as always start slow,the Fed $10 trillion,minimum.

[reformed nice guy]

12 minutes ago, confused said:

@TheCountOfNowhere I concur mate but the sheeple don't give a shit!

Did you participate in the Wall Street, City of London protests, did you listen to Eric Cantona when he said boycott the banks?

If not stop bloody complaining and get fooking trading/investing! 

LADIES PUT THE HANDBAGS DOWN WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!!!!!!

I understand your point of view and I hate the cronyism + misallocation of our taxes.

However, a lot of what is said in this thread is against the system:

buy second hand when you can to avoid VAT, try to avoid living in the most overinflated areas if you can, yellow stickers, grow your own food, repair your own car, maximise pension benefits if older, top up NI by being a carer, dont take a promotion if the stress would be unbearable etc.

Even doing a few of those things sets you against the grain.