Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

[BearyBear]

FTSE100 down 30% from its peak, trading below 2012 average...

[BearyBear]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

How'd you get 43%, Beary? I'm only seeing about 25%

True  it's 30%

not enough sleep lol 

 

[M S E Refugee]

I have no idea why anyone would even attempt to buy any stocks at this time.

Things are bad now but what happens when inevitably major companies start to go bust around the world.

Surely you have to be patient and wait until this disease dissipates.

[StrugglingMillennial]

Thats a steep drop this morning 🙈

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I guess I believe that Shell, BP, Rio, BHP, Aviva etc are not going to go bust. If others do, more market for them. I could be wrong of course, nothing wrong with being in cash or cautious. I've never been cautious, and my singular goal in my working life to to have a passive income that makes me financially independent. I've waited a very long time to see double digit divis, I couldn't afford them in the last bust.

The double digit divis are all past looking (or forward looking based on past trends and expectations).  In the current situation I'd say they are largely meaningless for most companies until you know how this pans out. Companies won't be factoring in having zero business for a period of weeks / months until they have to.

[Lightscribe]

37 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Sure, if the virus is permanent and Aviva is temporary, rather than the other way around. Rio Tinto looks a bargain too

I think with all due respect I think what he was trying to imply was that insurance companies may have a torrid time in the after effects of this.

15 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have no idea why anyone would even attempt to buy any stocks at this time.

Things are bad now but what happens when inevitably major companies start to go bust around the world.

Surely you have to be patient and wait until this disease dissipates.

Because by the time that happens, the algos and traders who have access to the information beforehand would have already priced it in.

For us plebs it’s following the market down in ladders to stab the bottom. I’ll be doing my next 10% today. If the markets and the whole world goes bust, then we have more to worry about than money.

[CVG]

18 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have no idea why anyone would even attempt to buy any stocks at this time.

Things are bad now but what happens when inevitably major companies start to go bust around the world.

Surely you have to be patient and wait until this disease dissipates.

Traders and investors with pre-planned strategies are not the ones panicking right now.

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, CVG said:

Traders and investors with pre-planned strategies are not the ones panicking right now.

Because they have planned for a pandemic?

[BearyBear]

Vodafone should be doing fine as people switch to home working

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Big falls tomorrow 

 

https://www.thestreet.com/.amp/investing/dow-futures-slump-amid-doubt-for-trump-coronavrius-support

Up tomorrow 🤣🤣🤣

Most of the reflation stocks6i bought were alreasdy diwn 30%+

 

Holy ssss

[onlyme]

Just now, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah I get that, but my time horizon is 8-15 years. That's what I'm buying for. I don't think those earnings will not continue when this is over.

For sure, but this situation is running so fast it is anyone's guess what control strategies will be used, how the will work, how many passes they will have to be used. The critical point is that no country can afford for their medical system to collapse, it is the one thing that will trump the economic  decisions, because at that point many, many more will die and the med staff will die too, this means lockdowns. Situation will look worst at the end of the first round or second round of those pandemic phases most likely and that is going to take months to pan out. Agree companies with resources in the ground say, they are not going anywhere and value will return, just how quick you need to be pull the trigger.

[Alex]

If Yahoo!'s graphing tool is correct, the FTSE100 is now at the same level it was in Oct/Nov 1998.

How are those all-index trackers looking now, kiddies?

[CVG]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Because they have planned for a pandemic?

Not a pandemic per-se, but in my case I had a plan for equities falling (or rising) by any amount. It's a simple case of rebalancing my portfolio to reflect whatever happens. Most of my portfolio is not in equities!

[BearyBear]

Just now, M S E Refugee said:

Because they have planned for a pandemic?

I'm with you on that, this is not just a crisis that we've seen before, it's more like a war. Unconventional war.

Apparently CoronaVirus is more deadly to 45+, obese and/or smokers - how much of the US/Europe population will fit into that?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Us stopped travel from europe. 

 

Europe about to go lockdown.

Goid chance we will get double trouble

 

 

I still say... Don't buy till the city of london is 2 foot deep

1 hour ago, CVG said:

I'd guess that 80% of the bad news is priced in now. Perhaps further falls totalling 20% could be expected. If I see falls greater than 50% then I'll know it's an over reaction and bring out my big bazooka's to exploit the opportunity.

They've no idea how bad the bad news might be. 

58 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anyone like Aviva at the moment? 10% divi, plenty of cash and income, low debt...what am I missing.

You been reading the motley moron? 

[BearyBear]

4 minutes ago, Alex said:

If Yahoo!'s graphing tool is correct, the FTSE100 is now at the same level it was in Oct/Nov 1998.

How are those all-index trackers looking now, kiddies?

You know, buy and hold and you'll always win in the longer term.

Can't be bothered to check it but I do wonder how many stocks were kicked out from FTSE100 since 1998..? Some of them may no longer exist.

[Barnsey]

I can’t even bear to log into my ii account any more 

At least I know I’ve bought some relatively solid companies at prices I thought were very reasonable vs their previous lows over a long time horizon. It’s the action of Silver and GDXJ which is really hammering my balance, the market needs huge liquidity and stability, here’s looking to you Ms Lagarde, hopefully not a “laggard”

[Democorruptcy]

24 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I guess I believe that Shell, BP, Rio, BHP, Aviva etc are not going to go bust. If others do, more market for them. I could be wrong of course, nothing wrong with being in cash or cautious. I've never been cautious, and my singular goal in my working life to to have a passive income that makes me financially independent. I've waited a very long time to see double digit divis, I couldn't afford them in the last bust.

In horse racing they say "A loss is temporary but class is permanent". I hope you are right and RDSB are a class firm!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On a brighter note, im 5% better off having sild national grid yesterday 

 

Small win against big losses 

7 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

You know, buy and hold and you'll always win in the longer term.

Can't be bothered to check it but I do wonder how many stocks were kicked out from FTSE100 since 1998..? Some of them may no longer exist.

Better to buy and hold at the bottom. 

I still dont get why no ones waited for the crash. 😭😭😭😭

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

I'll know it's an over reaction and bring out my big bazooka's to exploit the opportunity.

Careful, you're only meant to blow the doors off!

Does anyone have any stock tips?  I've got a big tip of stocks in the back garden!

Oh dear, time to dig something!

[CVG]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Careful, you're only meant to blow the doors off!

My overactive imagination! It makes my Permanent Portfolio (style) investing feel more exciting!

https://monevator.com/the-permanent-portfolio/

[BearyBear]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Better to buy and hold at the bottom. 

I still dont get why no ones waited for the crash. 😭😭😭😭

If you know where the next bottom will be... let us know  

I was waiting for the crash...

[Harley]

I've switched my charting app to show % price changes rather than absolutes.  Far more interesting.  Indeed awesome for most.

[Barnsey]

Dow (in much more dramatic fashion) pretty much back to where the Fed absolutely crapped themselves late 2018, but still waiting...