Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Don Coglione]

Surely this IS the Big Kahuna now? If it's just the warm-up act, then heavens to Betsy...

[Cosmic]

1 minute ago, Ponty Mython said:

Surely this IS the Big Kahuna now? If it's just the warm-up act, then heavens to Betsy...

Open up the scale on things like the S&P and it looks like nothing... on things like Shell/BP it looks huge! Big Kahuna? Not sure yet.

[reformed nice guy]

https://reports.shell.com/annual-report/2019/servicepages/downloads/files/shell_annual_report_2019.pdf

Shell report for up to 31/12/19

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I give you.... The motley moron

 

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/12/01/why-i-think-the-metro-bank-share-price-could-double-in-2020/

 

Down 60% since jan. 

[BearyBear]

44 minutes ago, confused said:

I just remembered I've got a Silver ETC, doh, I've just checked and the performance of it is bloody shit!!! 

@BearyBear I remember you called it with the Gold/ETF divergence call, well done, have you got a graph of this 'divergence'?

Will post it later... gdx -12% wow!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I keep saying... Stay out till it settles.... Best to make 10% less than lose 30%

[ashestoashes]

11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Its carnage 

 

Foxtons 11%

Countrywide 20%

Petsimmon 10

Barrat 10

Iag 10

Easyjet 10

Intu 20

Metro bank 23!!!!

Tui 19

rolls royce 10

[Cosmic]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

Will post it later... gdx -12% wow!

SSE/GDX/GDXJ/SIB and Harmony are the surviving greens on my list, don't mention them more please

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Tdog said:

So is this the crash you were expecting Mr Durham Born ... or it the deflationary bust still to come.

Fucker that the one asset i want to buy will seemingly never go down in price ... i blame Gidiot, King and Carney!

No way of telling,could bounce hard,could carry on down,could see some creep up others crash.I will just buy as ladders hit,then hope im right on the next cycle.If the CBs dont respond the corporate bond market will implode within weeks i expect.If i had to guess id expect a big rally soon,but just a guess.

The key take though is once this runs through bonds will be inflated away,its crucial to take some pain positioning for that ahead.Fed has been pretty terrible through this.

[Castlevania]

where’s Gordon Brown when he’s needed?

[Agent ZigZag]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fed has been pretty terrible through this.

Thats an understatement

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Thats an understatement

Its nuts how the CBs arent working together.Makes you wonder if the Fed just want Trump out,

[DoINeedOne]

Going to buy some beers anyone want anything.

[BearyBear]

Just now, DoINeedOne said:

Going to buy some beers anyone want anything.

2 bottles of Corona please...!  

[Agent ZigZag]

You may laugh but there may be something in what you say Durham.

I have been in the company of late with those that work in the City. Last week they were very relaxed as they all thought the template was in place for co-ordinated action. But it is not. Im beginning to wander whether Powell is up to the job.

[Noallegiance]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its nuts how the CBs arent working together.Makes you wonder if the Fed just want Trump out,

Confused.

They're all cutting and pumping?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I witnessed a couple of big collapses in my life. 

 

This is by far the most spectacular 

[Solzhenitsyn]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No way of telling,could bounce hard,could carry on down,could see some creep up others crash.I will just buy as ladders hit,then hope im right on the next cycle.If the CBs dont respond the corporate bond market will implode within weeks i expect.If i had to guess id expect a big rally soon,but just a guess.

The key take though is once this runs through bonds will be inflated away,its crucial to take some pain positioning for that ahead.Fed has been pretty terrible through this.

Might be able to get RDSB sub £10 soon. These prices have not been seen since the RDSB chart began on tradingview (2002ish)

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

You may laugh but there may be something in what you say Durham.

I have been in the company of late with those that work in the City. Last week they were very relaxed as they all thought the template was in place for co-ordinated action. But it is not. Im beginning to wander whether Powell is up to the job.

He isnt,never was,not experienced enough.Cant blame him for the position they were in,but action has been terrible.Its been perfect for us on here though as we have the crash we were waiting for,we now need them to start printing hard and turn the inflation sectors,even if others head on down.If they dont print hard now they will knock society back 50 years,if they do we get the reflation cycle we are positioning for.

Likely a bloodbath in the credit markets but printing will turn some sectors i expect.

[Democorruptcy]

People of a nervous disposition should look away now. 

That is epic!

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Give warren buffett a quick call and ask when hes buying?

BTW,  BP now £2.99 !

And now at 2.82... not sure why I recall this but I do remember a poster on here saying, probably well over a year ago now, that they wouldn't touch BP until it fell below £4.50. Expect they are now filing their boots.

[Cosmic]

Just now, JMD said:

And now at 2.82... not sure why I recall this but I do remember a poster on here saying, probably well over a year ago now, that they wouldn't touch BP until it fell below £4.50. Expect they are now filing their boots.

Or filled their boots at 445 and now a little sad

[kibuc]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

we have the crash we were waiting for

Well no, not all of us do  I was expectin one last hurrah, instead I'm getting decimated here, -60% since early December. However, you certainly navigated all this like a pro.

Oh well, let's see what the rest of this month brings. At the very least I can hope some of the individuals on my list catch the bug

[headrow]

Look at Standard Life Aberdeen SLA , goes ex div at 14p in 3 weeks time. You can buy it today at 208p. Capitulation.

[headrow]

16 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Or filled their boots at 445 and now a little sad

I've bought at 420 , 400 , 350 ,330 in my ISA. More than a little sad ,  will get even sadder when the dividend gets butchered.