Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

SHELL now £11.69 ...waiting for BP to hit £2.69 ....NEARLY there folks.

Just watch the carry on clip below before i pull the trigger!

 

[Democorruptcy]

14 minutes ago, headrow said:

Look at Standard Life Aberdeen SLA , goes ex div at 14p in 3 weeks time. You can buy it today at 208p. Capitulation.

It wasn't on my shopping list but what the hell, paid 2.06 

 

[Lavalas]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

Looks like a beginning of another panic sale day in PMs.

And looking at the price of PMs (Alexco) it’s another day of shall I shan’t I 😬

[DurhamBorn]

Iv finally re-entered the Gold miner space,bought some GDXJ ,a lot actually 

[BearyBear]

SP500 at a critical trend line...

[kibuc]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv finally re-entered the Gold miner space,bought some GDXJ ,a lot actually 

Clearly enough to move the needle

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Can't well for tax reasons can't access more money from my company till April the new tax year maybe that will be a good thing to see where we are with this virus then 

 

here is my current allocation

Thanks for posting and couldn't help notice that 'large' (assume i'm just jealous!) splash of yellow metals. That's quiet an allocation compared to your company's worth. Can I be nosey - what's your strategy for holding/selling, is it physical metal or mining stocks?

[DurhamBorn]

To go back to its recent high the FTSE 100 would need to go up 50% from here.

[Hardhat]

Just bought RDSB and BP.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

To go back to its recent high the FTSE 100 would need to go up 50% from here.

That might take 10 years.......and this might not even be the bottom....

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

GOT SHELL @ £11.62 !!! WHATS NEXT weeks PRICE...£6.69 ?

BP doesn't want to go lower than 2.82 today what da ya rekon  @TheCountOfNowhere AND  @confused

MUST say i'm VERY calm as i keep pissing myself watching the above CARRY ON clip

i think this is a ONCE in a lifetime event DON'T MISS OUT!

[onlyme]

8 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

SP500 at a critical trend line...

 

Fed should have kept their ammo for that, completely wasted it the other day. 

[nirvana]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker dunno mate.............dunno whether to laugh or cry at all this tbh

we could be surrounded by lots o dead folk in a month or two as well as all this market carnage......well I won't cos I live in the middle of effing nowhereistan 

Good luck to all you 'dip buyers' today!!!

If you're still wondering the answer is 42!!! 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, confused said:

That might take 10 years.......and this might not even be the bottom....

8 years probably,the FTSE has a lot of resource stocks.I can remember the 80s crash,it was mostly over 2 days.The late 90s one was similar to this in that older world shares were decimated.Very similar to now.There will be no recovery in anything until we get inflation.The world is desperate for it.The CBs and governments will need to find a way to inject it quickly.When/if that appears will determine how the rest of the falls work through.

[DoINeedOne]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks for posting and couldn't help notice that 'large' (assume i'm just jealous!) splash of yellow metals. That's quiet an allocation compared to your company's worth. Can I be nosey - what's your strategy for holding/selling, is it physical metal or mining stocks?

Companies worth is not that huge been slowly drawing down the balance and getting more into investing as for strategy for metals to be honest to hold for a long time till i maybe retire one day 

[Agent ZigZag]

45 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Well no, not all of us do  I was expectin one last hurrah, instead I'm getting decimated here, -60% since early December. However, you certainly navigated all this like a pro.

Oh well, let's see what the rest of this month brings. At the very least I can hope some of the individuals on my list catch the bug

I think your miners will do ok. You recently reported strong cash flows that is a positive. Secondly I think the drop in  miners and gold price is a large fund dumping these to cover elsewhere. Whilst we need injection from central banks mkt confidence or lack there of appears at maximim negativity suggesting the pendulum must soon swing back, and hopefully in a violent manner

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Fed should have kept their ammo for that, completely wasted it the other day. 

yeah I concur but what about the view that they've been 'out of ammo' for years!!! This is what frightens me, they can't force debt on the stupid plebs and banks that are already up to their eyeballs in debt!!! Can they???? The 'plumbing' might get blocked up again 

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

There will be no recovery in anything until we get inflation

SO there will be NO RECOVERY for donkies years then!!! Cos we've had hyperinflation for decades!!!

[Agent ZigZag]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv finally re-entered the Gold miner space,bought some GDXJ ,a lot actually 

Brave as you know what your doing.

[BearyBear]

6 minutes ago, confused said:

That might take 10 years.......and this might not even be the bottom....

You never know... if they print to infinity it may take less than that

Anyways, I will wait for a proper crash, we haven't heard yet about anything big going bust! And SP500 is trading in a place where it may reverse... at least in theory.

btw. Money burning companies that would have never existed in a sound economy (Tesla for example) are still very expensive... that gives me a perspective of what is waiting for us.

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, confused said:

yeah I concur but what about the view that they've been 'out of ammo' for years!!! This is what frightens me, they can't force debt on the stupid plebs and banks that are already up to their eyeballs in debt!!! Can they???? The 'plumbing' might get blocked up again 

Yes, has largely been kabuki theatre, keep printing keep buying, what could possibly go wrong the FED will always have our back. But this isn't about money. Though a decent slug of it thrown at the real problem and sacrificing a few industry revenue streams (i.e. planes flying out of China) might have prevented most of what has happened, bought many, many weeks, months even to properly prepare or even find a early stage vaccine. They've been wallpapering the wall whilst the house was falling down.

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Money burning companies that would have never existed in a sound economy

Like BANKS???? The zombie banks that were bailed in 2008??

2 minutes ago, onlyme said:

They've been wallpapering the wall whilst the house was falling down

EXactly, the whole house of cards is falling down......timber

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, confused said:

yeah I concur but what about the view that they've been 'out of ammo' for years!!! This is what frightens me, they can't force debt on the stupid plebs and banks that are already up to their eyeballs in debt!!! Can they???? The 'plumbing' might get blocked up again 

SO there will be NO RECOVERY for donkies years then!!! Cos we've had hyperinflation for decades!!!

Thats why governments will do it themselves.Banks,consumer etc cant.Thats the job of government in a modern economy.People can talk about the rights and wrongs,but they are the backstop.If they dont act we will see the biggest financial dislocation in history.We are in the end game of this long dis-inflation.Where P Volcker had to put the fires out,the world now needs someone to light them.The problem is the world needs it to start with $,and Powell seems clueless at the moment.Other CBs cant go full printing without more dollars in the system.

[Democorruptcy]

Shorts closed out, all cash requested. Third party risk is an issue in my mind. No point in being greedy if you don't get paid later on. Cut and run.

[kibuc]

8 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I think your miners will do ok. You recently reported strong cash flows that is a positive. Secondly I think the drop in  miners and gold price is a large fund dumping these to cover elsewhere. Whilst we need injection from central banks mkt confidence or lack there of appears at maximim negativity suggesting the pendulum must soon swing back, and hopefully in a violent manner

Hopefully  Take Fortuna for example - they spend over $150m in 2019 developing Lindero and still generated $35mil in free cash flow at average gold $1400 and silver $16. They are already a FCF machine and they estimate there's £35-40m capex left at Lindero. At current prices, their FCF for 2020 should be over one hundred mill and much more in 2021. Market cap: $360mil. What the fuck?

[Barnsey]

AND there we have it, history books