Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Errol]

I would not be surprised to see a market 'holiday' announced shortly.

Either that or the Fed will announce something massive tomorrow. Otherwise, it will be more of the same - nobody will want to hold over the weekend.

[Errol]

From my favourite film:

 

 

[Barnsey]

10 minutes ago, Errol said:

I would not be surprised to see a market 'holiday' announced shortly.

Either that or the Fed will announce something massive tomorrow. Otherwise, it will be more of the same - nobody will want to hold over the weekend.

Rates to ZERO, tomorrow, believe me, bigly. 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 @Cattle Prod fantastic stuff.The last time i bought Shell at this price i was probably knocking one out over Louise Wener aged 24 in my little 2 up 2 down knocking shop terrace house.So i think its fitting that i dig out my It Girl album,pour myself a single malt and go to work on an oil road map.

I think the whole world is thinking,

"What do i do now"

I have HL alerts set up for shares I've bought and there seemed to be issues in the dark time after closing today. Usually a massive buy or sell goes through at 16:35pm for every company and you can see it if you select Trade by Volume. It's not there tonight and it's the first time I've ever noticed it missing.

RDSB put out a Price Monitoring Extension at 16:39 and then a Second one at 16:43 under Company Announcements

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07

Then 17:23 at they bought over 600,000 of their own shares with a really wide spread of 11.11 to 12.79

I can only assume everybody was skint or nobody wanted any

What do you make of that?

BP, VOD and BT also did PME's

[MrXxxx]

I now have `skin in the game` having made my first share purchase, and this after much reading and pontificating for about 12 months!...and already learnt two important lessons:

1.You can't time time the bottom, as just when you think you have by pressing buy it goes lower!

2. Once you have bought close the ticker, otherwise you spend the whole afternoon `beating yourself up` every five minutes.

Note, I am now thinking of changing my account name on here to @YRS :-)

[SillyBilly]

I am running out of cookie jars to raid at the moment. My pay goes in on Sunday, I will be on rice and beans for another month then after I blow the lot in oil.

 

[Harley]

Bit of a bearish megaphone (broadening top) pattern forming on gold in USD on the weekly with momentum weakening.  However momentum on the daily getting quite low so maybe a turn up soon but this may just be part of another swing in the megaphone pattern.  Monthly momentum has been elevated for some time now so maybe due a pull back.  However it may overall be drawing out a cap and saucer so this could all be the typical pullback prior to the bullish up phase.  Momentum weakening on the weekly in GBP but the monthly looks interesting (double top after testing support or a further break to the upside).

Bottom line:  it's possibly no slam dunk over the next few weeks.!

[SillyBilly]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

I now have `skin in the game` having made my first share purchase, and this after much reading and pontificating for about 12 months!...and already learnt two important lessons:

1.You can't time time the bottom, as just when you think you have by pressing buy it goes lower!

2. Once you have bought close the ticker, otherwise you spend the whole afternoon `beating yourself up` every five minutes.

Note, I am now thinking of changing my account name on here to @YRS :-)

Too true. Once you've bought, ignore all the noise and get on with your life. Obsessing over the intra-day or week is a recipe for a) making bad decisions and b) having a short life.

 

[Shamone]

3 hours ago, Tdog said:

Ive 3 flights on Friday the 13th thats much scarier ... one a helicopter the next with some dodgy Ghanian airline.

[JREWING]

12 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Ive got 27K sitting in my SIPP plus another 12k to come by the end of my companies tax year.

Tempted to go all in with the 27K tomorrow and Monday.

As per SP's comment it seems as if the time has come to test the theory.

Im down 8k in my SIPP which didnt exist this time 2 years ago ... when the plan then was to save it all up for a time like now!

I've got 26k sitting in my HL sipp as cash.

I've no other money. 

Any advice. I don't even understand how to buy stock in the HL portal...

I'm 52 work minimum wage, pay rent. 

Any help appreciated.

Be nice to make a few quid. Reading this thread, maybe go all in on BP or Shell...

Thoughts.

[SillyBilly]

Just now, Tdog said:

Didnt you drop a huge sum into oil last week? I done 3 and a bit grand so timed it well again!

Yes, I've made several more investments since and heavily down on all of them. £10k down in Shell from my first buy in alone. If you want advice on how to "lose" tens of thousands in a couple of weeks PM me . 

I think these will be stellar investments that I will hold for a long time, lets see where we are even 6-12 months from now. The divi yields on these shares are very attractive. My only disappointment is perhaps shooting my load a little too early... I am looking to free up some more cash next month so now we're at this level hoping we hold down a little longer so I can buy more.

[Shamone]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Was saying to a friend today,only two sorts of people buying oil at the minute 1) really stupid people 2) experienced savvy investors.Time will tell which we are.

Been away working nights.Been listening to A&E Sister's rant about La Coruna and the overreaction to it(their views of course,not the views of NHS England natch).

I have banged on about those trades mainly that they went up 30-50% as the wider market dropped 70% peak to trough.We bought some decent chunks(circa 3% Portfolio value iirc).Those shares are currently kicking out nearly as much dividend as they would have cost if held to now.

 

 

I'm lining up trades as follows tmrw.RDSB/BP/EQNR/XOM/TOT(all 0.4%)/REP(0.1%).Also in the goldies we're going to purchase that 0.8% position I promsied us in newcrest last week but was unwilling to pay $19 bucvks for.Currently $14...........we'll take our chances with gold clinging on at $1500 bucks.

 

Dare I say it on a technical level,the selling in XOM looks to be getting exhausted,but I have our bdudget for them running for at least two months more at this burn rate.

Switching into a heavy purchase of Total tmrw than before,to bring it's weighting up.Go easier on BP as we're overloaded from hgiher prices.Dropping ENI for now.

 

What are you buying if you don't mind me asking?

 

Can't believe XES/OIH/FCG/REMX.......amazing to watch the human side of this crisis.Absolute hysteria.

How is FCG so low? Surely the world needs gas?

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 10/03/2020 at 21:48, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Im leavinh the uk again when my contract is up. This place is #####ed

Everywhere is fucked... collution by the central banks have ensured that.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Everywhere is fucked... collution by the central banks have ensured that.

Fucked with 10 hectares is a lot better than being fucked by 10 Hectors

14 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Didnt you drop a huge sum into oil last week? I done 3 and a bit grand so timed it well again!

Nobodies listening 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 11/03/2020 at 07:15, CVG said:

I'd much rather that rates went up - kill off the zombie debt laden companies - and redistribute their order book to the remaining better quality companies.

An economy based on efficiency rather than share buy backs and investment in unproductive assets... oh how one can dream!

[nirvana]

@panda are you female? I'm paying good money for women and drugs at the mo? 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I'm revising my up 10% tomorrow's forecast to civil ear in the us

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-futures-plunge-almost-5-investors-face-a-sea-of-red-51584013342

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 11/03/2020 at 09:34, Noallegiance said:

They're going to trash the currency.

Everyone is trying to trash their currency. It's like a massive game of chicken. 

Trump is going on about Germany having an advantage because of their negative IRs. We are living in a backwards world where they don't care about the future or providing a stable economy. Just trying to get through their term without the economy imploding. Corona virus may have highlighted how fragile the economy is and the buck may just stop here.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 11/03/2020 at 11:07, DurhamBorn said:

.I hope they spend quickly,at least that gives the companies we are aiming at a better chance of surviving.

They will panic and money printing seems to be their only tool now interest rates are rock bottom. They also want to be seen to be acting quickly so I would be surprised if it is quick.

[reformed nice guy]

Vix is at 75.47

That seems important....

[DurhamBorn]

Ok oil.Iv used the figures from @Cattle Prod and iv used a 3% pull down in the dollar index to the 94 area.Iv used Saudi production to increase then fall back to where it is now.Iv used a lag from China more than reversing.So the lag fall in demand added back plus some extra as i expect China to put its foot on the gas in a few weeks.

This isnt a trading call,because sentiment is out the window so iv had to use the sentiment indicator at bottom.It could be worse.

So for WTI it shows $27 possible,but 8 weeks out oil at $36+,then $44+ by late summer,then $52+ by xmas.

I dont like shorter term roadmaps like this because the longer term one said $43 (sub $20 in bust) then $300 ,but it seemed an interesting thing to do,and doesn't affect me buying the big oilies as im buying them now anyway.

It also doesn't take into account another black swan at extremes,like Iran and Saudi going at it,explosions in Irag etc

[TheCountOfNowhere]

30 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Everyone is trying to enslave the people of the world . It's like a massive game of Europe 1939. 

 

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

 

17 minutes ago, Tdog said:

53 minutes ago, Panda said:

I've got 26k sitting in my HL sipp as cash.

I've no other money. 

Any advice. I don't even understand how to buy stock in the HL portal...

I'm 52 work minimum wage, pay rent. 

Any help appreciated.

Be nice to make a few quid. Reading this thread, maybe go all in on BP or Shell...

Thoughts.

TO be honest my moneys there to gamble, if its lost i'll work an extra year ... and i intend putting it away for around a decade without touching them.

Maybe try some kind of FTSE 100 tracker ... my understanding the FTSE is pretty heavily weighed towards oil/gas and metals as it is.

If we consider the thread as a whole, I'd say most here would be against an FTSE tracker. 
No-one is certain exactly where we are on the roadmap right now.  Many are thinking we're in the midst of the deflationary collapse event we've all been talking about for a few years now.  If we're not, then we're thinking the Fed will put some printed cash under this, only for the markets to rise a bit, and we get our really big deflationary collapse at some point down the line.
Either way - there's a lot of predictions on these pages about how things work out, and most agree that many of the stocks that have been doing well, aren't going to be doing well going forward.  Meanwhile, there are stocks that haven't been doing well, but will do much better on the other side of the collapse.
You saw the budget earlier in the week.  It's all about railways, roads, houses, hospitals and schools.  It's gonna be government spending on those sorts of things.  But it's also going to lead to inflation, and eventually higher interest rates, which will hurt some companies - ones with debts or with high material costs.
The stocks we've been talking about are big oil companies, steel makers, agricultural supplies, fertiliser, gold miners, silver miners, bus companies - heavy industry with lots of capital already invested.  The thread seems generally agreed these will do well after the deflationary collapse, once the really big money printing starts.
But the skill, luck, risk, gamble, is deciding for yourself when the right moment is to buy something.  We may well not have finished going down yet.  And Coronavirus is a definite curveball that no-one planned for and is likely to affect our roadmap in unexpected ways.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Sounds entirely reasonable. 

One other variable I've mentioned a few times is perception of supply. I think any production loss from now will be masked by the coronoavirus selloff. It was happening anyway, but it'll be lost in the bigger move. But it will struggle to rebound (legacy production decline marching on). At some point, when the market realises it's not an infinite supply source, oil will be re rated 10-$15 upwards in my opinion. I though that would be this year. Likely a bit further out. Slow and steady it is.

Oh there is one more input, I don't know if inventory factors into your road maps. In 2016, there was a big inventory surplus in the US, which was the real driver for $26/bbl. About 250m bbl. It's about negative 2 now. So this market is effectively pricing in a ~250m bbl build in US stocks over the next while, probably ~1 mm/bbl a day. That'll happen for a few weeks, till rig an employment contracts are honoured, then big builds will slow down. I cannot see a 250m build in US stocks in any scenario. WTI is clearly mispriced.

Its a bit like Potash.The sector has been smashed down in the sell off when already at multi decade lows.However it is simply sentiment.Why?,because of the main drivers of price falls over the last few years was Chinese production.Where is the production?,Hubei,and they are shut,the plants.The stocks they had at the docks for export are instead being sent back to their plants to produce.There is going to be a demand shock in the rest of the world.This is at the same time as corn acreage is up 5% in the US.Oh and Mosaic owns 500 square miles of Florida mostly.

I expect the potash stocks to rally hard in the 2nd quarter.

[Sugarlips]

ASX goes from -8% to +2% at close, yeah cause that's normal..