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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Jsut looking at the goldies now

 

Think we're gonna be topping up a few here.Cant believe how much some have dropped since march 5

New positions-

AUY/FCX-both repurcahses

Adds-

AGI/NCM/GFI/SIB/BVN/NGD/HMY

It is crazy, isn't it.

 

The last time you could buy Minera Alamos for 21c, gold was 1450, Santana production was one year away and funding was still up in the air.

We're now less than half a year away from production, gold knocks on 1600 and funding is fully secured without dilluting.

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Majorpain

Majorpain

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

QE to Infinity and Beyond..?

Soon, but not just yet:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wasnt-supposed-happen-fraois-explodes-higher-after-feds-bazooka-repos-misfire

Whilst the fed made $1.5T available to US banks, they only took them up on a small proportion of it.  Whatever has broken it actually isn't the US repo market this time, and if the problem isnt found and fixed fast then its going to get nastier.

Im going to point my finger at the European banks, the Euro is the only currency in the world that can go to zero and the Germans have been far too slow to backstop bankrupt Club Med.

Lagarde has her work cut out after Thursdays disappointment....

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Democorruptcy

Democorruptcy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

As said earlier,we're prob going to average under $60 for XOM,possibly under $50 if it stays under for another 4 weeks.But we're sticking to my plan which has at least a further two months buying at this rate.If the price moves up then we'll slow down the purchase rate and possibly look to diversify away from oils/gold.ever since @Democorruptcy introduced that article about the 'decomplex trade' I've really struggled to get my focus mroe broadly spread with the underlying at these prices.

 

It hampered you then?

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, BearyBear said:

You never know... if they print to infinity it may take less than that :)

Anyways, I will wait for a proper crash, we haven't heard yet about anything big going bust! And SP500 is trading in a place where it may reverse... at least in theory.

btw. Money burning companies that would have never existed in a sound economy (Tesla for example) are still very expensive... that gives me a perspective of what is waiting for us.

I agree. The geo-political fallout stemming from Corona, a diminished middle-east (oil/renewables catfight), Chinese response to its thwarted economic ambitions, etc, leads me to think that the US will have so much on its plate that it will gladly take the easy solution (as it usually tends to do) and print and be damned.     

Yes Tesla is the canary, its down, but really only back to its crazy Jan. 2020 price.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, kibuc said:

How is GDXJ +14% when Kinross, PAAS, Goldfields, Harmony, Yamana, everything is a sea of red?

I just trebled my holding New Gold at .74 cents (my 1st purchase ORIGINAL HOLDING was DOWN -72% ...now i'm ONLY DOWN -49% in New Gold)O.o

...so expect GDXJ to start FALLING:o

@sancho panza Maybe ya should hold of buying New Gold, now that i've just boughtxD

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onlyme

onlyme

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, JMD said:

I agree. The geo-political fallout stemming from Corona, a diminished middle-east (oil/renewables catfight), Chinese response to its thwarted economic ambitions, etc, leads me to think that the US will have so much on its plate that it will gladly take the easy solution (as it usually tends to do) and print and be damned.     

Yes Tesla is the canary, its down, but really only back to its crazy Jan. 2020 price.

I don't know the  figures but for a long period of times there was a lot of shares sold short, IIRC around 20%, which is a lot for a large cap company, reckon the blowoff was just one huge short squeeze.

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Big drop on Monday when the US realise how fucked they actually are 

And I thought I was a bit pessimistic! love it!

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Cosmic

Cosmic

Posted
Posted
Just now, headrow said:

RDSB looking like it will finish the day back where it started.

Still think it could end up in the red.

BP already there. Someone doesn't want to hold over the weekend.

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

there's some brave bastards around here buying on a friday afternoon......

Talking of brave I watched 1917 earlier in the week, good movie!

And after @sancho panzamentioned @Errolwas a genius, I've got Margin Call for the weekend! woohoo!!

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DoINeedOne

DoINeedOne

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Meanwhile on coininvest.com ...

image.thumb.png.6cb474280b25c03fa973c1233acd2898.png

Scarcity in advertising we use it all the time whilst i sure its true its also a clever way to get people ordering 

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reformed nice guy

reformed nice guy

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, confused said:

there's some brave bastards around here buying on a friday afternoon......

Talking of brave I watched 1917 earlier in the week, good movie!

And after @sancho panzamentioned @Errolwas a genius, I've got Margin Call for the weekend! woohoo!!

Im one of those dafties!

Got Shell at 1080, next ladder at 900 

BP at 274, next ladder 235.

 

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BearyBear

BearyBear

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Gold/Silver ratio can stay above 100 longer than you can stay solvent ;)

On my chart I can see a probability of Silver going well below 13.60. If it does, I'll buy a few kilos :D 

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, kibuc said:

I'm still holding it. I keep 3 holdings because of their repricing potential agnostic to metal prices: Alexco (silver), Fortuna (gold/silver) and Minera Alamos (gold). Each has a transformative project coming online soon and enough cash to see it delivered. It's that latter concern that made me drop Corvus and Silvercrest, although with heavy heart - I think raising funds might become difficult.

I also keep one gold and one silver play where I see strong leverage to metal prices: Harmony and Impact. I'd rather swap HMY for a smaller cap though if I found a suitable one. 

Thanks. How about swopping Harmony for Cartier Resources or Auryn Gold? Or is that going far too risky? Both well run companies apparently but don't know much about their projects/prospects.   

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

talking of silver, what's the hell's happening!??? it's gonna be at 2015 lows soon! 

@BearyBeardo you daytrade DAX? I try to but I nearly always get stopped out then I get pissed off xD

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