Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

European markets appear to be struggling to hold on late in the day and the US has opened bouncing down the stairs.

Buying now is an interesting call! It seems not even $1.5T can get things moving in the right direction.

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, confused said:

talking of silver, what's the hell's happening!??? it's gonna be at 2015 lows soon! 

@BearyBeardo you daytrade DAX? I try to but I nearly always get stopped out then I get pissed off 

Silver is slowly gravitating towards by bids...

Nope, I used to trade ftse100, now just the sp500 once or twice a month...

[nirvana]

26 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Got Shell at 1080

Could be worse some dafties were buying at 1800p just a few weeks ago! 

4 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

now just the sp500 once or twice a month...

cool, why just once or twice a month? NFP?

what trading software do you use?

[Lavalas]

Only just updated Sibanye on my TradingView app after it changed its ticker. 

😳

Good month then.

(I don’t hold it)

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, confused said:

Could be worse some dafties were buying at 1800p just a few weeks ago! 

cool, why just once or twice a month? NFP?

No, I'm looking for a really good setup or some sort of unusual news like the one we had yesterday. These things don't happen often.

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, Tdog said:

so bought £300 worth

that's about an hours work for you dude so not a problem 

It's handsome! I only know cos my ex was a big Smiths fan 

 

[nirvana]

14 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Will be back in the morning to tell everyone theyre fucken idiots and this flu shites a load of bollocks

You should be learning by now 'mr market' knows everything, that's why the markets are bolloxed and loads o boomers are gonna die.....keep your powder dry, cheap houses incoming!!!!

[BearyBear]

If Silver goes below $13.60, I think we'll see a waterfall.

[nirvana]

I agree it's looking grim!

Good weekend y'all, get some exercises done for the monday fight!

I'm dancing to Madonna myself, don't get 'hung up' on your trades/investments! 

 

[TNS]

got shell and bp again. I'm glutton for punishment!

[Hardhat]

I'm buying everything to hold for 7-8 years. The original thesis of this thread was that something like this would happen eventually, whether caused by a black swan or not. A period of financial dislocation would follow, and after that inflation caused in part by CBs printing money, and also commodity demands, perhaps topping out around 2027 - 28.

I don't see that anything has changed really, despite all the noise on here and elsewhere. This is a good time to buy certain stocks, esp cheap commods, if you believe in the general thesis of the reflation cycle ahead.

Personally I'm fully positioned in reflation stocks and will be adding more ladders as and when funds become available over the next few years, at least. I'm currently down quite a bit on certain stocks, but we expected this.

This is the time to keep a cool head and stick to the plan. The foundations of this thread, which we have all been discussing for the past few years, remain sound, and if anything are being proven right.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

How is GDXJ +14% when Kinross, PAAS, Goldfields, Harmony, Yamana, everything is a sea of red? 

 

Should I have gone to Specsavers?  -14.03% on LSE at the close, currently +4.38% on NYSE?

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

The foundations of this thread, which we have all been discussing for the past few years, remain sound, and if anything are being proven right.

Maybe time for all to pledge allegiance to the thread.  All stand, fingers on buy buttons, look towards Durham, and repeat "I pledge allegiance to....."!

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

I'm buying everything to hold for 7-8 years. The original thesis of this thread was that something like this would happen eventually, whether caused by a black swan or not. A period of financial dislocation would follow, and after that inflation caused in part by CBs printing money, and also commodity demands, perhaps topping out around 2027 - 28.

I don't see that anything has changed really, despite all the noise on here and elsewhere. This is a good time to buy certain stocks, esp cheap commods, if you believe in the general thesis of the reflation cycle ahead.

Personally I'm fully positioned in reflation stocks and will be adding more ladders as and when funds become available over the next few years, at least. I'm currently down quite a bit on certain stocks, but we expected this.

This is the time to keep a cool head and stick to the plan. The foundations of this thread, which we have all been discussing for the past few years, remain sound, and if anything are being proven right.

Nothing has changed as you say,its exactly as we planned for.Il be fully invested if we see more falls and i fully expect i now have some stocks that will 10 bag in my portfolio,and some that might not make it.I can honestly say the big energy companies iv been buying the last few days i will not sell until at least 2026 and maybe even 2028.Im not interested in the narrative "everyone is going to die",they arent.I worked at GSK for 10 years,they are trying to help find something for this,but its not a huge priority apart from the good publicity.Its biggest affect will be bringing a few deaths forward maybe a year on average.Not nice for families,but its what humans have had to deal with since walking out of the Great Rift Valley.

There is no doubt the reaction to this virus though is causing very large financial dislocation,again what we predicted would happen at the start of the thread.I pity the airlines and travel industry.Its also hitting stocks im buying in the transport sector.No football etc really hits travel,but again what im buying now will be kept until after 2026.Not certain every one will make it of course.If one doesnt tough.it wont hurt as much as my first love dumping me on the railway bridge when i was 16.

The real story will be whats to come,and thats inflation.It will do more damage than these fall.Equity values cut in half or more mostly and then inflation gutting bond portfolio's.

When that happens is going to get costly to borrow.

Once im full allocated im going to leave this thread mostly.Iv got a lot of things in life to enjoy and get on with and it will then really just be the odd visit.

 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah, must be honest we're filling up broekrage accounts with everything spare.This is it for me,the relatively all in phase.I thought these prices would present in 2021 or so after the debt deflation.I have to rethink my plan as clearly some of my perosnal predictions may change.

Still think we're heading for the weak dollar.Think we'll get big stimulus.Oil/gold higher.

I anticipated selling goldies to buy these oilies for yield but now jsut able to buy them for yield.Our average buy price on EQNR getting sub $15 and XOM hopefully gonna be sub $50 by the end of our buying cycle in 2 months.

If you'd have offered me that two years ago,I'd have taken it.People who haven't bought higher up like us are going to do really well here if we're right.If we're worng then we had a punt.That's life.But this is one of those moments in trading.You find out out how much you really believe in your own theses when the markets are wracked with this sort of fear.

This is a time for patience,delibaration and remaining adaptible but most of all about having the courage of your convictions.If this all come soff,my retirement moves forwards by years not months.

 

I'll take that chance.

So it was you SP, re. <4.50 BP (so karma of the good variety I hope). Anyway well done sounds like you did fill your boots, then backed the truck up!

I note your earlier post mentioning your buying %'s in some of each of the oil majors. Will this and planned future buys over the next 2 months take you to your 30% portfolio target? Excuse me quoting figures back at you, but the reason I ask is that I have gone large (for me) into energy stocks, but for me it will represent 'only' 15%.

I consider the energy sector to represent the best risk/reward out there, both in terms of total-return (growth/divi) AND also next cycle 'power themes' (e.g. renewables, etc, and often discussed on here). But I wonder if there are other alternatives?    …i.e. the Commodities sector perhaps, if so would you SP or others have ideas on how to invest? Been thinking a lot about this recently but haven't come to any conclusions yet and its a big topic, especially when including the soft commodities like potash, forestry. So for hard commodities has anyone come up with say their own 'big 5 metals' for the next cycle and where best to get exposure in terms of the big conglomerates and the smaller/mid-cap players, e.g. maybe Horizonte Minerals for nickel, which has been discussed here a lot.   

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Seems more selective today after everything was down yesterday. 

 

I like how NMC is always zero change in said chart. Because if something is worth zero to begin with...

[Shamone]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

@Cattle Prod has said that with gas it depends where it is and if it can get to market.so problems in the permian realte to the fact that it's not viable to ship to europe for instance.

Russian gas has a ready marekt in western weurope however much Putin intereferes in US elections.

Thanks sp ,I’m tempted to make a small punt soon!

[BadAlchemy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Once im full allocated im going to leave this thread mostly.Iv got a lot of things in life to enjoy and get on with and it will then really just be the odd visit.

You will have earned a much needed rest I reckon. Don't be a stranger though. We would miss your excellent analysis (and also the tales of mining porno mags and ciggies out of the ground back in your youth etc). I am a rookie but you guys have got me going off reading balance sheets and doing basic coma scoring etc. Never thought I would do that. Hurts my head and I probably get it all wrong but you gotta start somewhere. I have actually saved this entire thread to hard drive and will go back and reference it in the coming years I am sure of that. There are some big thinkers here, with long term plans and ideas. I like that. Thank you all. It trumps the memes and witty (?) one liners every time!

Cheers!

[Loki]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

it wont hurt as much as my first love dumping me on the railway bridge when i was 16

Amazing what sticks with you isn't it.

I was explaining to a friend earlier that yes, my stocks and shares ISA is in the red, but basically if the government don't do what is need to "Save the economy" (I even said air quotes, but left out a debate on the ethics of central banking) then some red numbers will be the least of my worries.  If they do, my stocks and shares will 'go up'.

[Solzhenitsyn]

GDXJ just puked another ~17% 

might add another (small) tranche on Monday once LONDON is open.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

STOP BUYING YOU MAD BASTARDS 

[Solzhenitsyn]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

STOP BUYING YOU MAD BASTARDS 

Haven’t bought any more yet since this whole thing started going south. There’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to clean up here on GDXJ and I’m being very disciplined not to get in too early. 

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Haven’t bought any more yet since this whole thing started going south. There’s a once in a lifetime opportunity to clean up here on GDXJ and I’m being very disciplined not to get in too early. 

Well said, Solzhenitsyn (possibly the coolest user-name on here, by the way).

If not now, when?

[kibuc]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks. How about swopping Harmony for Cartier Resources or Auryn Gold? Or is that going far too risky? Both well run companies apparently but don't know much about their projects/prospects.   

I ended up buying a bit of New Gold. I haven't changed my mind about it too much, but I manged to get it at 0.63 CAD just five minutes ago.

 

...and I'm out of cash again, 100% invested, soon to be 0% married I guess

[Solzhenitsyn]

2 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Well said, Solzhenitsyn (possibly the coolest user-name on here, by the way).

If not now, when?

Personally I’m waiting until COV19 really starts biting in the U.K. and USA, so likely a couple weeks yet.