Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

They will be bargains. When gold goes first past the Dollar high and then on to $5000 and higher.

I was saying to someone the other day,this isn't really a bull market in gold till we get a new dollar high.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

railway mania

I must re-read my copy of 'Extraordinary delusions and the Madness of Crowds' (I really do have it, somewhere) as a moral boost!

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Errol said:

They will be bargains. When gold goes first past the Dollar high and then on to $5000 and higher.

Ok I'm looking at a Gold chart, $1563 is an interesting support, $1550 area looks interesting too.......what is your $5000 calculated on??

[sancho panza]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying BP,Shell,Babcock,Norsk Hydro,Baker Hughes,DRAX,Mosaic,Repsol,Telefonica,Telia,Vod,Go Ahead,National Express,BHP Billiton,Invesco,ITV,Solvay SA,BAT tobacco,Westrock Co,BT, anda few other small opening salvos,i put over 50 in today.Most shot through 2 or 4 ladders before buying,so i bought decent amounts and have 2 ladders under most things now,but at 10% movements. 

Looks like the Fed is buying treasuries right now,maybe a trillion to start,i think thats about 5% of what we will get.I expect the governments to increase spending quickly and a lot Fed buying will be to take up everything the government wants.I expect the ECB will start to buy bonds heavily tomorrow.

I think we're going to use oilies divis to but telcos.Mum is still stashing away the certs on BP/RDSB bless her(she holds the UK listed stuff we can certify).

Keep meaning to start diversifying but jsut keep buying more gold and oil.I'll have a look at a few you've lsited.Potash looks incredible at tehse levels.We're ready for second ladder in SDF,3rd in mosiac/yara.

As I said,we're either really stupid buying here or really savvy.Noone in between is buying.

Total at $26....We had an average buy price of $47 till last week.Had filtered bits in steadily.Then last week stucka chunk in,average price$42.I'd have taken that two years back.By end tmrw could be mid 30's on Total.

I haven't had time to check other sectors lately as all my spare time spent obssessing about goldies/oilies/early retirement dreams

2 minutes ago, confused said:

Ok I'm looking at a Gold chart, $1563 is an interesting support, $1550 area looks interesting too.......what is your $5000 calculated on??

the fact he's been right since 2002.

[BearyBear]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

I must re-read my copy of 'Extraordinary delusions and the Madness of Crowds' (I really do have it, somewhere) as a moral boost!

That was a good read...!

[kibuc]

Sibanye, good Lord!

Palladium downturn is brutal for them. 

[sancho panza]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I feel like this. If this doesn't work out, so be it. It means I'm wrong. Not the end of the world. Just need to work longer.

A personal stroke of luck is I'm currently stuck 70km from the nearest town in the middle of no where with little distraction for the next two weeks. If I was in work in London I'd be spending a lot of time in the toilet on my phone 

I generally do our buying if I'm not on shift and gen monday/friday.

It's amazing what's happening.Normally sane people are losing all perpsective.This is something to behold for me and harks back to earleir diiscussions led by @Harley on behavioural economics.

But I'm a value trader.We had 8% porfolio value ready to punt on Trump election.Only got 3.5% on in the end as the bets were' flying on betfair.He was 3/1 and was an evens chance imho.I couldn't live with myself if I didn't havea run at that.Sweated some when Florida was in the balance and he went out to 12/1 but that's trading.When I rang my Mum in the mroning with the result,she was stoked.This jsut has that feeling for me.I could be worng and If I am then so be it.

The oilies are odds are way out of kilter with where the should be.Period.Total at 26 and the roads here full of cars............................

[onlyme]

16 minutes ago, Loki said:

I must re-read my copy of 'Extraordinary delusions and the Madness of Crowds' (I really do have it, somewhere) as a moral boost!

Best book I've read on investing is Investing and Bull and Bear markets by Sam Weinstein (I think as all books boxed up). Hardest part of investing is taking good advice and following it, i'll be pulling it out in a few months and hope to follow it, really simple basic but very sound. 

[Castlevania]

GDXJ got hammered late on. Down below $25.

[nirvana]

28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

the fact he's been right since 2002

Good recommendation............I believe that abandoning the 'gold standard' was a bad thing but to be fair, investing in Gold over the last 10 years has been very poor compared to a lot of other asset classes....maybe Gold will have its day soon but I've read so many stories over the years about how the market is even more manipulated than other 'markets'????

Did the krauts ever manage to get their gold back from dem robbing Yankees?? 

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

GDXJ got hammered late on. Down below $25.

You're obviously a gold bug, you keeping the faith???

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think we're going to use oilies divis to but telcos.Mum is still stashing away the certs on BP/RDSB bless her(she holds the UK listed stuff we can certify).

Keep meaning to start diversifying but jsut keep buying more gold and oil.I'll have a look at a few you've lsited.Potash looks incredible at tehse levels.We're ready for second ladder in SDF,3rd in mosiac/yara.

As I said,we're either really stupid buying here or really savvy.Noone in between is buying.

Total at $26....We had an average buy price of $47 till last week.Had filtered bits in steadily.Then last week stucka chunk in,average price$42.I'd have taken that two years back.By end tmrw could be mid 30's on Total.

I haven't had time to check other sectors lately as all my spare time

On potash i have mainly got Mosaic,and a very small amount of K+S.Its funny today,but id been wanting to buy National Express for a long time,multi years and then today there it was down another 20% at £2.60.I was glad to get it.I was going to get Total,but iv concentrated on Shell,BP and Repsol,and some BHP today when it hit £9.50.

There will be a lot of companies go under during this debt deflation due to cash flow issues,but the big caps are more likely to survive.It was brutal today as it always is when buying straight into falling positions.

I have no idea how much red il have before things turn,and the FTSE is still around 600 point above where my road map expected it to end up,but most of my targets have hit the prices i hoped for.Lucky in some ways the falls were so fast because in most cases i actually missed ladders out and bought the one below.I knew the falls were severe when i was checking the likes of BHP wondering if it was below £13 yet and it was below £10 

The way iv lost the most money in the past has been selling massive winners far too early,im not bothered about how much lower things go,im more worried about bailing too early in the next cycle 

[Loki]

Tomorrow is F̴̢̝̠̝͍͍͉̿͂̑̄͛̚r̸̢̡̗̘͙̹̜̠̯͌̏́̈́͋̀ḯ̴͕͖͖̥͐͂̆̀͝͝͝ḋ̵̨̛̟̳̩̹̘̔̎̓͐̔̚͠ȧ̵̹̊̾̅́̀͑͑̕̕y̵̼̪̗͈̻̬̋̓̈̏ͅ ̵̢̗͈̺͎̈́͋͆͘ț̴̙͙̫̂̔̀̀̈́h̸̨̧̡̠͖̱͉̭̙͐̽͑̓̒̏̒͝ͅe̴̢͓̟͕̔̎̔̃̿̆̋̍͑ ̸̟́͘̚1̷̤̬͙̗̪̪͎̅̾͘͝ͅ3̸̧̨̭͕̤̹̩̍̂̾̒̿͗̕t̵̛̥̙͕̟̰͖͉͍̻̫̾h̴͎̤͈̱̙͖̙̃̓̅͊̾

[TheCountOfNowhere]

36 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Sibanye, good Lord!

Palladium downturn is brutal for them. 

I held some of these a while ago and made a good profit... Then they really shot up.  Any profit is better than any loss 

Just now, Loki said:

Tomorrow is F̴̢̝̠̝͍͍͉̿͂̑̄͛̚r̸̢̡̗̘͙̹̜̠̯͌̏́̈́͋̀ḯ̴͕͖͖̥͐͂̆̀͝͝͝ḋ̵̨̛̟̳̩̹̘̔̎̓͐̔̚͠ȧ̵̹̊̾̅́̀͑͑̕̕y̵̼̪̗͈̻̬̋̓̈̏ͅ ̵̢̗͈̺͎̈́͋͆͘ț̴̙͙̫̂̔̀̀̈́h̸̨̧̡̠͖̱͉̭̙͐̽͑̓̒̏̒͝ͅe̴̢͓̟͕̔̎̔̃̿̆̋̍͑ ̸̟́͘̚1̷̤̬͙̗̪̪͎̅̾͘͝ͅ3̸̧̨̭͕̤̹̩̍̂̾̒̿͗̕t̵̛̥̙͕̟̰͖͉͍̻̫̾h̴͎̤͈̱̙͖̙̃̓̅͊̾

Itll be up 10%

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Itll be up 10%

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bounce in the market, probably succeeded by another 20% drop next Monday 

[DurhamBorn]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The number 1 thing happening for me at the moment is the capex cuts in US shale. Apache announced today it is going to spend zero on the Permian. People do not understand how much you have to drill just to keep production flat. If this continues it will fall like a stone, and probably cause a price spike later this year. I must sound insane, but it could easily happen, as it did in 2007. I'll try and quantify this a bit later more later.

@Cattle Prod if you can get me the rough figures on how much the Permian produces as a % of worldwide demand il be able to run a cross market on the affect of a fall,lets say 25% fall.

The big companies will turn off their high cost stuff now and pump from their cheap reserves.They will be quite happy to kill off the smaller players and buy their fields for peanuts.The big oilies make a lot of extra money from refining when oil is cheap,sometimes even buying of the market and pumping less of their own.

Gas prices will spike in the US soon as well.Turn off the oil wells you turn off the gas as well.

[BearyBear]

28 minutes ago, Loki said:

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bounce in the market, probably succeeded by another 20% drop next Monday 

Every day I'm seeing a bounce less and less likely - maybe that's a positive sign who knows..? Have entered a long on sp500 straight after FED announced $1.5 trillion fresh money but the trade turned back against me very quickly so I closed it for a small profit... was expecting a bigger pullback but hey, toilet paper burns very fast, regardless of quantity. This was a perfect moment IMO - the 10y trendline and FED acting.

$1.5 trillion is South Korea GDP, or annual US budget deficit.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Every day I'm seeing a bounce less and less likely - maybe that's a positive sign who knows..? Have entered a long on sp500 straight after FED announced $1.5 trillion fresh money but the trade turned back against me very quickly so I closed it for a small profit... was expecting a bigger pullback but hey, toilet paper burns very fast, regardless of quantity. This was a perfect moment IMO - the 10y trendline and FED acting.

$1.5 trillion is South Korea GDP, or annual US budget deficit.

The futures are a mess already!

[Majorpain]

11 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Every day I'm seeing a bounce less and less likely - maybe that's a positive sign who knows..? Have entered a long on sp500 straight after FED announced $1.5 trillion fresh money but the trade turned back against me very quickly so I closed it for a small profit... was expecting a bigger pullback but hey, toilet paper burns very fast, regardless of quantity. This was a perfect moment IMO - the 10y trendline and FED acting.

$1.5 trillion is South Korea GDP, or annual US budget deficit.

Its not a good sign, the market is completely out of central bank control now and its trying to find "fair value".

The interesting thing is that despite the blowout, nothing is publicly in distress.  That isn't likely to be the case for much longer, especially when Trillion $ bungs have no effect.....

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

The futures are a mess already!

Indeed. There was no proper rejection on that trendline at all. Well, actually there actually was a FED induced rejection which was then rejected by the market. Looks like margin calls cascade to me...

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

Indeed. There was no proper rejection on that trendline at all. Well, actually there actually was a FED induced rejection which was then rejected by the market. Looks like margin calls cascade to me...

 

Another 1 trillion of repos (1 and 3 month) getting offered tomorrow.  Wonder if it will have a diminished effect (Compared to an already lacklustre response)

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

$1.5 trillion is South Korea GDP, or annual US budget deficit.

Christ and the market is falling further!!! Guys I think you've 'shot your load' too early again!! 

[nirvana]

I need to watch my charts more, reading too much shite on the internet, perfect rejection 

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, confused said:

I think you've 'shot your load' too early again!! 

You're telling me

[nirvana]

Guys they've decided on the other thread the virus is a perfect manmade killing machine, not only does it do in your lungs but latest research shows it does in your bollocks as well!!! 

Mankind is fucked, markets going to zero. I'm off to spend all my money on an M140i auto, hookers and blow.......good luck, confused over and out

[DurhamBorn]

 @Cattle Prod fantastic stuff.The last time i bought Shell at this price i was probably knocking one out over Louise Wener aged 24 in my little 2 up 2 down knocking shop terrace house.So i think its fitting that i dig out my It Girl album,pour myself a single malt and go to work on an oil road map.

I think the whole world is thinking,

"What do i do now"