Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

Wouldn't mind buying back into Wesdome again too

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Wouldn't mind buying back into Wesdome again too

Psssst. Hey, kid.  Wanna buy some NGD?  

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I can remember the 1987 ftse fall, made 0 difference to me then. Best bit is... House prices collapsed not long after 

37 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He needs to print $20 trillion probably,but for a start we need $5 trillion.BOE needs to print £300billion for the government to spend now.They need to monetize all of it.The longer they wait,the more they will need to print.Once they monetize as much debt as they can they can then jump rates up to 2%,then creep them up.

He needs stringing up with tge rest of them 

[DoINeedOne]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Psssst. Hey, kid.  Wanna buy some NGD?  

[Loki]

[Loki]

@Tdog you're not alone, I really think I will capitulate this year if I stay in the country.  £300,000+ (for a place with rooms to let out) for a pile of bricks in the over-crowded corner of a small cold rock in the Atlantic is very galling...but as far as PROPERTY goes, it really is different this time.

[Bricks & Mortar]

2 minutes ago, Tdog said:

but the govt can keep the nation in Dominos pizza jobs with tax credits and such like to keep the plates spinning.

Not sure about you, but I won't be eating any pizza, potentially coughed on by persons unknown, for quite some time.

Also - Dominoes pizza jobs, even with the tax credits, even if we could all get them, aren't enough to keep the plates spinning for 1/2 million quid 3-bed semis.

[Loki]

I just had an e-mail from HL and this caught my eye

Quote

 

The UK’s productivity has lagged other developed nations for some time now. Longstanding under-investment in the country’s infrastructure could be partly to blame. Our time and resources are consistently wasted in traffic jams, repairing cars damaged by potholes, and by the tumult inflicted by floods.

The chancellor has therefore announced a big increase in infrastructure investment over the course of this parliament. The government plans to spend around £640bn by 2024, equating to triple the average of the last 40 years by the end of the parliament. This includes £27bn on roads, £500m a year for potholes, and £5.2bn for flood defences.

The money must be spent wisely though, so we’ll be looking out for more details in the new National Infrastructure Strategy due later this spring.

The new spending is definitely good news for the UK’s construction sector. However, as we’ve discussed before, razor thin margins in the industry mean investors are unlikely to see much of the new cash.

 

 

[nirvana]

Right had to go and wind my internet up again  what's happening? what we all buying tomorrow? Apart from houses that look like an abortion and cost £300k+???

[nirvana]

20 minutes ago, Tdog said:

corona nonsense

it'll be bloody nonsense when you're coughing your guts up for 3 months, then wave 2 comes along and your knob drops off!!! 

[kibuc]

51 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Seems the promise of $1tr+ within 48 hours was enough to boost the market for 30 minutes.

It must need more.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/clyeyy8851qt/dow-jones-industrial-average

The beast is always hungry. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

40 minutes ago, Tdog said:

I dont think they will this time, just had a read of notayesmaneconomcs blog from yesterday and it sums up what we already know, about Funding for lending 3 and dropping to 0.25%.
https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

They will do quite literally anything to stop the house price bubble bursting.

Though mass job losses could do it, but the govt can keep the nation in Dominos pizza jobs with tax credits and such like to keep the plates spinning.

Im seriously thinking of buying in the coming few months, if there is no imminent fall in prices, kids 10 time to move on.

And i think once this corona nonsense has finished, then it'll be business as usual.

edit - higher interest rates will crash it, but they could well be years away.

Of course they will..as soon as rates quadruple.... To 1%

 

What did DB say rates would hit? 

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That'd be a good signal all right. Though I can't see how people are afraid of missing the stimulus rebound, it'll be pretty obvious! Like a 100bp cut from the Fed next week, as is likely. I'm not fussed about calling the bottom, at the moment I'm just shifting my SIPP. It's very limited in equites I can access, pretty much only FTSE 250, so I'm more interested in securing 10%+ divis to compound for the the next 15 years or so. I recall what @sancho panza said about BHP and RIO et al after the dotcom bust.

Was saying to a friend today,only two sorts of people buying oil at the minute 1) really stupid people 2) experienced savvy investors.Time will tell which we are.

Been away working nights.Been listening to A&E Sister's rant about La Coruna and the overreaction to it(their views of course,not the views of NHS England natch).

I have banged on about those trades mainly that they went up 30-50% as the wider market dropped 70% peak to trough.We bought some decent chunks(circa 3% Portfolio value iirc).Those shares are currently kicking out nearly as much dividend as they would have cost if held to now.

 

 

I'm lining up trades as follows tmrw.RDSB/BP/EQNR/XOM/TOT(all 0.4%)/REP(0.1%).Also in the goldies we're going to purchase that 0.8% position I promsied us in newcrest last week but was unwilling to pay $19 bucvks for.Currently $14...........we'll take our chances with gold clinging on at $1500 bucks.

 

Dare I say it on a technical level,the selling in XOM looks to be getting exhausted,but I have our bdudget for them running for at least two months more at this burn rate.

Switching into a heavy purchase of Total tmrw than before,to bring it's weighting up.Go easier on BP as we're overloaded from hgiher prices.Dropping ENI for now.

 

What are you buying if you don't mind me asking?

 

Can't believe XES/OIH/FCG/REMX.......amazing to watch the human side of this crisis.Absolute hysteria.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

39 minutes ago, Loki said:

@Tdog you're not alone, I really think I will capitulate this year if I stay in the country.  £300,000+ (for a place with rooms to let out) for a pile of bricks in the over-crowded corner of a small cold rock in the Atlantic is very galling...but as far as PROPERTY goes, it really is different this time.

After waiting how long? And witnessing this collapse? 

 

House prices always collapse after thesr events. 

If millions of 70s+ die you are quite literally looking at a massive top down collapse. Ig not your looking at 2 years og madness followed by an 80% collapse. 

 

As you can see from the ftse, buying anything near the top of any bubble will lose you a fortune 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

After waiting how long? And witnessing this collapse? 

My whole life, I am old enough to have seen prices increase after 2008.  (Admittedly that whole thing was a massive can kicking exercise, but the sentiment was that of Armageddon for a while)

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

It was @sancho panzapanza not stalking him - just wrote it down at the time. Early 2018 iirc!

Yeah, must be honest we're filling up broekrage accounts with everything spare.This is it for me,the relatively all in phase.I thought these prices would present in 2021 or so after the debt deflation.I have to rethink my plan as clearly some of my perosnal predictions may change.

Still think we're heading for the weak dollar.Think we'll get big stimulus.Oil/gold higher.

I anticipated selling goldies to buy these oilies for yield but now jsut able to buy them for yield.Our average buy price on EQNR getting sub $15 and XOM hopefully gonna be sub $50 by the end of our buying cycle in 2 months.

If you'd have offered me that two years ago,I'd have taken it.People who haven't bought higher up like us are going to do really well here if we're right.If we're worng then we had a punt.That's life.But this is one of those moments in trading.You find out out how much you really believe in your own theses when the markets are wracked with this sort of fear.

This is a time for patience,delibaration and remaining adaptible but most of all about having the courage of your convictions.If this all come soff,my retirement moves forwards by years not months.

 

I'll take that chance.

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

If millions of 70s+ die you are quite literally looking at a massive top down collapse

THIS!!!! All markets are going down this time, including housing, the plebs are too dumb and brainwashed to avoid it.....come on God get on with your 'cleansing'  

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

My whole life, I am old enough to have seen prices increase after 2008.  (Admittedly that whole thing was a massive can kicking exercise, but the sentiment was that of Armageddon for a while)

Dud you not see the decrease after 2008 and not go up for 4 to 6 years? 

 

Buying now is insane esp if there is a 2nd peak in deaths.

 

Do you teally think 12 months will maje a diffetence? 

 

The bastard bankers have struck the fear of missing out into people. Bastards

[Loki]

I really hope you're right @TheCountOfNowhere

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Was saying to a friend today,only two sorts of people buying oil at the minute 1) really stupid people 2) experienced savvy investors.Time will tell which we are.

Been away working nights.Been listening to A&E Sister's rant about La Coruna and the overreaction to it(their views of course,not the views of NHS England natch).

I have banged on about those trades mainly that they went up 30-50% as the wider market dropped 70% peak to trough.We bought some decent chunks(circa 3% Portfolio value iirc).Those shares are currently kicking out nearly as much dividend as they would have cost if held to now.

 

 

I'm lining up trades as follows tmrw.RDSB/BP/EQNR/XOM/TOT(all 0.4%)/REP(0.1%).Also in the goldies we're going to purchase that 0.8% position I promsied us in newcrest last week but was unwilling to pay $19 bucvks for.Currently $14...........we'll take our chances with gold clinging on at $1500 bucks.

 

Dare I say it on a technical level,the selling in XOM looks to be getting exhausted,but I have our bdudget for them running for at least two months more at this burn rate.

Switching into a heavy purchase of Total tmrw than before,to bring it's weighting up.Go easier on BP as we're overloaded from hgiher prices.Dropping ENI for now.

 

What are you buying if you don't mind me asking?

 

Can't believe XES/OIH/FCG/REMX.......amazing to watch the human side of this crisis.Absolute hysteria.

Iv been buying BP,Shell,Babcock,Norsk Hydro,Baker Hughes,DRAX,Mosaic,Repsol,Telefonica,Telia,Vod,Go Ahead,National Express,BHP Billiton,Invesco,ITV,Solvay SA,BAT tobacco,Westrock Co,BT, anda few other small opening salvos,i put over 50 in today.Most shot through 2 or 4 ladders before buying,so i bought decent amounts and have 2 ladders under most things now,but at 10% movements. 

Looks like the Fed is buying treasuries right now,maybe a trillion to start,i think thats about 5% of what we will get.I expect the governments to increase spending quickly and a lot Fed buying will be to take up everything the government wants.I expect the ECB will start to buy bonds heavily tomorrow.

[BearyBear]

It's always good to put things into proper perspective... how much $500 billion is? How about $1.5 trillion..?

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The bastard bankers have struck the fear of missing out into people. Bastards

THIS TOO!!!! Come on admit it, how many folks on here were buying the last 2 weeks thinking woohoo I got a bargain here???? FOMO everywhere!! it's part of the propaganda and brainwashing narrative on the TV for decades  You know Goebels got his ideas from dem Yankees? He saw what they were doing with propaganda in the 30s and just copied it 

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying BP,Shell,Babcock,Norsk Hydro,Baker Hughes,DRAX,Mosaic,Repsol,Telefonica,Telia,Vod,Go Ahead,National Express,BHP Billiton,Invesco,ITV,Solvay SA,BAT tobacco,Westrock Co,BT, anda few other small opening salvos,i put over 50 in today

kinnel big spender, glad someone is keeping the economy ticking over 

[Errol]

1 minute ago, confused said:

THIS TOO!!!! Come on admit it, how many folks on here were buying the last 2 weeks thinking woohoo I got a bargain here????

They will be bargains. When gold goes first past the Dollar high and then on to $5000 and higher.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

I really hope you're right @TheCountOfNowhere

I do too loki, ive always thought its like the railway mania. Read up on it, its so similar. The second collapse will end it. This wholr thing has caused so much damage uts a tragedy. I agree that the bankers action could push up prices, but in the next 3 months the market will be dead, sentiment could change.

Say the proces go up mental due to such low rates, then what? Slightest problem and it'll go. 

 

Do what you gotta do, no one kniws whats coming but whatever happens it'll not ne good for anyone, that much im sure. 

[NogintheNog]

4 hours ago, headrow said:

5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Or filled their boots at 445 and now a little sad

I've bought at 420 , 400 , 350 ,330 in my ISA. More than a little sad ,  will get even sadder when the dividend gets butchered.

I bought BP at about £3.60 back in 2016. Sold a chunk of it at £4.50 and regretted it as it sailed up towards £5.50+. Bought some back at £4.80/£4.60/£3.75 and £3.30... Ouch! Talk about the pin that burst some bubbles, this is more like a nuke. The speed of the collapse is staggering. I've got plenty of Ammo left and I've hung onto my Goldies so they've helped, but this virus and the economic affect it's having is truly on a different scale on companies to previous economic downturns.

They never really dealt with the downturn in 2008/9 properly, creating the 'everything bubble'. Now the CB's look like Rabbits in the headlights!