Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

46 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

ASX

is that Aussie shite? No offence but it'll just follow dem Yankees ......something has put a rocket up the market just now, will it last???

[Ellandback]

Dave 'just let it play out' Hunter doubles down on S&P going to 4000 call 

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Ellandback said:

Dave 'just let it play out' Hunter doubles down on S&P going to 4000 call 

he's wrong, he called the bottom on Monday......credibility lost 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

if they don't do something substantial, they are facing a Black Monday with a Lehman or possibly an AIG on the line.

they pressed the nuclear button yesterday and the markets weren't impressed.....do you want them to personally deliver a QUADRILLION dollars to every bank in the land????

RE another Lehman, I can only dream 

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

As DB says, that's a fraction of what they need to do.

More smack for the smackheads? And how is it actually going to get into the 'real economy' rather than the back pockets of the 'conmen' bankers??

QE is ok if you deliver it direct to the people, don't you think??

What happened to the repo market last night? Who wants to volunteer to be the 'repo reporter'???

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Thats where Mugabe went wrong.

Recession is a far better solution than QE.

Mugabe didn't enrich the people he enriched himself and his cronies, he learnt from dem Yankee bankers!! 

Zimbabwe used to be the 'bread basket' of Africa......he not only destroyed his own country, he destroyed a continent....

yes we should have had a 'recession' in 2008 but again the cronies bailed out THEIR mates.....

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6% up, lucky guess from me again 🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

Somone is taking the piss. How much have they handed the bankers this time? 

[Democorruptcy]

I went all in yesterday, don't have anything less to spend in either my ISA or SIPP. I just couldn't resist those drops. As I said I even tried to get the Treasury to up ISA limits! 

[headrow]

21 minutes ago, Tdog said:

RDSB up 8% ... pity was about to buy at 1100!

By mid afternoon it will have given up all it's gains. Can't understand why anybody would want to hold over this weekend after what happened in the last one.

The FTSE has already given up half it's gains at the open.

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, Tdog said:

RDSB up 8% ... pity was about to buy at 1100!

got quoted 1174p with 12.51% divi!!!.......might wait till they go sub £10 

[nirvana]

@headrow tried to give you a thumbs up but I'm outta ammo...

[nirvana]

check this cunt out.....was I saying mankind is fucked 

 

[Solzhenitsyn]

25 minutes ago, confused said:

got quoted 1174p with 12.51% divi!!!.......might wait till they go sub £10 

Markets don’t just puke 10% in a day then suddenly reverse. There will be more falls to come. Not sure even the initial rounds of QE will do much once the US starts quarantining cities. 

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, confused said:

What happened to the repo market last night?

Fed has been reporting repo at 12pm, EST.  Right now, I think that's 4pm UK time, (but I'm not exactly sure because US clocks changed last weekend).
NB, I'm not volunteering, and if a uk person wants on it before close of the ftse, they should probably make sure they get it themselves, owing to the time pressure before close.
Yesterdays report:
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_200312a

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Markets don’t just puke 10% in a day then suddenly reverse. There will be more falls to come. Not sure even the initial rounds of QE will do much once the US starts quarantining cities. 

Voice of reason, good post citizen! <thumbs up!> 

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Markets don’t just puke 10% in a day then suddenly reverse. There will be more falls to come. Not sure even the initial rounds of QE will do much once the US starts quarantining cities. 

Stolen from elsewhere but makes sense:

Once they start dropping like flies in New York and London the markets will free fall again. The Fed can’t stop the virus and it can’t stop a world wide lock down.

You will know when it is time to buy when you look at your screen and there are no buyers, for anything

[BearyBear]

3 hours ago, Ellandback said:

Dave 'just let it play out' Hunter doubles down on S&P going to 4000 call 

 

3 hours ago, confused said:

he's wrong, he called the bottom on Monday......credibility lost 

I've found Dave H a bit inconsistent. He says he only provides macro calls and then tries to provide trading calls.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Markets don’t just puke 10% in a day then suddenly reverse

 

1 hour ago, confused said:

Voice of reason, good post citizen! <thumbs up!> 

 

5 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

You will know when it is time to buy when you look at your screen and there are no buyers, for anything

So, looking round this thread, there's no buyers for anything this morning?

[BearyBear]

9 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Stolen from elsewhere but makes sense:

Once they start dropping like flies in New York and London the markets will free fall again. The Fed can’t stop the virus and it can’t stop a world wide lock down.

You will know when it is time to buy when you look at your screen and there are no buyers, for anything

Makes sense to me as well

I will also wait for all these cash burning companies to go bust.

[Harley]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It also doesn't take into account another black swan at extremes,like Iran and Saudi going at it,explosions in Irag etc

That's the problem I have with doing any sort of analysis atm.  I've seen shares starting to swing up get pulled down in some bizarre patterns.  The question is have the markets digested what could happen, not just the spread of the virus (like significant deaths in the US) but also the collateral affects (tuna anyone?).  People suffered most in the1929 crash on the second downleg.  Or is this really quite simple - the share price is the discounted value of the income/capital stream and these have indeed been significantly marked down?  And then we have to overlay the thoughts of this thread.  I guess you can only nibble, like gently tapping your way across a minefield, finger in ears and all!

PS: The media have been far behind and have catched up a bit because they were so far behind and looking silly but they're still trying to downplay things (one very knowledgeable interviewee on the radio this morning seemed to have put the phone down on the interviewer after she went off on some monologue downplaying things).  I would like to see a proper capitulation.

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

If we consider the thread as a whole, I'd say most here would be against an FTSE tracker.

IMO, defo a time for stock picking for the long term and maybe just trading the indicies right now.  Too much to get sorted out within the indicies right now.  This is when this thread should really shine, although more rationales on what sectors/stocks would help.  I mentioned a while back about getting closer to the sources (e.g.extractors and producers versus consumers) which I'm still sticking too (got badly burnt moving away from that) but I'm still working through what that means in terms of a watch-list given the amount of crap out there.  Things you think should do well (DTY as a trivial example) have rubbish financials and may get taken out before this is over or at least widow your portfolio.  All those wasted share support costs, inflated balance sheets, awful cash flows, increased long term debt, etc, all this in the run up to CV!  We're now going to see some real "stress tests".  CBs be damned. 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

We're now going to see some real "stress tests". 

It's all good in theory!

30 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

 

So, looking round this thread, there's no buyers for anything this morning?

I'm oot. Fair play to anyone buying.  Wouldn't saying I'm nursing wounds as i was always buying for the next cycle.  Would never have bought a share in my life if not for that.

But i have lost my bottle!

[onlyme]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

That's the problem I have with doing any sort of analysis atm.  I've seen shares starting to swing up get pulled down in some bizarre patterns. 

I really don't know how you can invest under such conditions (OK maybe the very exception of ladders and you have very strict selection criteria and targets), especially as forward guidance on any business has to be as opaque as any time in living history.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

32 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

 

So, looking round this thread, there's no buyers for anything this morning?

I bought this morning ...so ya KNOW what that MEANS, YES the market will start to COLLASPE shortly!

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Today  in SIPP I bought BP, Shell, Rio, BHP. Small top ups in BT, Royal Mail, Stagecoach, a start on Aviva, a nibble on Premier Oil (currently again priced for banrkruptcy). Bought a lot of Natural gas options yesterday as a play on the shale patch shutting down. Sold some eurodollars calls and sold my gold calls Monday morning thankfully (reinvested in NG). I wanted to rebuy, but the options prices are not cheap. Interestingly, I got a short duration call $100 out of the money about 6 weeks ago for ~$1100, now they are ~$2500. Options market not quite believing this price drop.

WTI is holding long term trend line this week, and looks like it'll put in a higher low today, despite the wider carnage. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

I agree with the options market.I've been through a few cycles.Was saying to my mum when I got up yesterday,that I felt there was a capitulation feel to the markets monday,then again yesterday.The majority of the weak hands wil be gone after yesterday I suspect.

the XOM referenace yesterday was to the fact that they're repeatedlty lagging the other oil fallers.In my near 30 years doing this stuff,once the qulity players stop dropping as much as everyone else then it's time to shuffle money round.

As said earlier,we're prob going to average under $60 for XOM,possibly under $50 if it stays under for another 4 weeks.But we're sticking to my plan which has at least a further two months buying at this rate.If the price moves up then we'll slow down the purchase rate and possibly look to diversify away from oils/gold.ever since @Democorruptcy introduced that article about the 'decomplex trade' I've really struggled to get my focus mroe broadly spread with the underlying at these prices.

I don't have the time to trade options at the minute but fair play to you but I may ponder some XOM calls this afternoon on saxo.