Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

here's a quick anecdote, I lost a 6 figure sum in the .com boom, careless I know but it was only paper profit 

anyway once I'd picked my dumb ass off the floor, I went back to work......there were one or 2 companies that actually made it into the FTSE100/250 from 'penny stocks' BUT then suddenly they disappeared!!

IT companies with a 'stunning future' ahead of them!!! Poof gone!!!

This is what effect covid19 is going to have on some businesses, then the unemployment numbers are gonna start racking up, then folk won't be able to pay their debts/mortgages....is the government gonna keep extending the 'debt holiday'? Christ I'm talking myself into armageddon!!! STEP AWAY FROM THE KEYBOARD!!! 

[BearyBear]

@confused as requested:

 

[DoINeedOne]

@kibuc or anyone else have any views on Minera Alamos or Mako Mining 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, headrow said:

I've bought at 420 , 400 , 350 ,330 in my ISA. More than a little sad ,  will get even sadder when the dividend gets butchered.

484, 440, 393, 291 for me

[nirvana]

@BearyBear interesting thanks, the old 'lower highs', good call sir!!

[Don Coglione]

Can CNA survive this? 

Almost 90% down from peak...

[JMD]

5 hours ago, kibuc said:

Alexco reported earnings (or lack thereof) yesterday. Numbers are as expected - after all, explorecos are not in the business of making money - but the key information for me is this:

"(Alexco) expects the granting of WUL renewal late in the first quarter of 2020"

It's no secret that the water licence is the final missing piece to the Keno Hill puzzle. Now that their coffers are full, what with having sold their environmental arm, Alexco seems ready to go and it looks like the key piece of news will be delivered in the enxt couple of weeks.

thanks Kibuc, is Alexco still one of your fav. (best one?) silver miners?

[Heart's Ease]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

And now at 2.82... not sure why I recall this but I do remember a poster on here saying, probably well over a year ago now, that they wouldn't touch BP until it fell below £4.50. Expect they are now filing their boots.

It was @sancho panzapanza not stalking him - just wrote it down at the time. Early 2018 iirc!

[nirvana]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Where P Volcker had to put the fires out,the world now needs someone to light them.The problem is the world needs it to start with $,and Powell seems clueless at the moment

I'm vaguely familar with what Volcker did, he raised interest rates to 20% drastically reducing the money supply!!! Ever since then the chumps have trashed the interest rates and printed trillions....

So you're asking for Powell to print QUADRILLIONS!!!??? 

[BearyBear]

8 minutes ago, confused said:

@BearyBear interesting thanks, the old 'lower highs', good call sir!!

GDX eventually made higher highs but the market promptly rejected these with big red candles... hence why I've rushed for exit.

The divergence was a clear sign of an underlying weakness and the price action was just a confirmation.

[nirvana]

@BearyBear yes absolutely superb trading and congrats again.....you young uns would be well advised to take note, as always, it's in the charts and you never ignore 'mr market' 

[Alifelessbinary]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

People of a nervous disposition should look away now. 

That is epic!

 

Wow I head of to a meeting and come back to a bloodbath.

The sheer speed of the decline is incredible. While we all knew it would pop I never thought it would go so quickly.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Wow I head of to a meeting and come back to a bloodbath.

The sheer speed of the decline is incredible. While we all knew it would pop I never thought it would go so quickly.

Me neither   from reading today I'm glad to know I'm not alone in shooting my investment wad too early!

Does anyone have any idea/guesstimate how long prices will stay low for?  Would they rise instantly if the fed open the taps?

[BearyBear]

33 minutes ago, confused said:

Like BANKS???? The zombie banks that were bailed in 2008??

Hard to say where the weakest point is... soon we will know. DBK.DE going up today  Is Lagarde buying or Merkel maybe..?

[BearyBear]

54 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Fed should have kept their ammo for that, completely wasted it the other day. 

I bet Trump is giving PPT a hard time every day&night...

 

* PPT - Plunge Protection Team

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Hard to say where the weakest point is... soon we will know. DBK.DE going up today  Is Lagarde buying or Merkel maybe..?

Ja ich spreche ein bischen Deutsche 

That stooq sits looks like my sort of site, nice n simple! any good?

Are you polish? I have a funny old polish friend in england, to be fair he's been there a very long time, he talks about 'bloody foreigners' 

[Alifelessbinary]

19 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Can CNA survive this? 

Almost 90% down from peak...

I don’t know but nobody sells ladders large enough for me to buy anymore.

CNA congratulations you are my worst performing share of all time. Surely they are.now a take over target. This will let the market spank me and teach me a lesson by forcing me to eat the loss. 

Thankfully the first lesson I learnt about investing was diversification! 
 

 

[Majorpain]

7 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Hard to say where the weakest point is... soon we will know. DBK.DE going up today  Is Lagarde buying or Merkel maybe..?

Italy.  It was wobbling to begin with, now its shut down for 2+ Weeks.

Euro means so it cant print/devalue its way out of the mess either, and that was before the corona virus hit!  

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Me neither   from reading today I'm glad to know I'm not alone in shooting my investment wad too early!

Does anyone have any idea/guesstimate how long prices will stay low for?  Would they rise instantly if the fed open the taps?

Sure there is some stupefying money printing they could use at this at any point I suppose, by directly buying in the market with freshly printed money, if they do that then all bets are off.

Otherwise I think there needs to solid evidence that the spread can be controlled, a cocktail of drugs can be used to treat and keep mortality rates down and instances like Wuhan and now (but less so) Italy (Lombardy area specifically) can be prevented and the medical system be run with a level of stability. Later maybe a proven vaccine. This could take weeks/months just to confirm the first part. China has got some relative stability, we'll see if that holds, not normality but seems to be working, the West is trying to do this without an immediate lockdown, only time will tell. There's about 35 vaccine programs at least now in progress, only needs one to work, but there are significant risks and no guarantees, the compliance procedure will be short circuited so the usual timescale will be compressed significantly, but at absolute min and incredible luck say finger in the air 6 months, but big if.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Euro means so it cant print/devalue its way out of the mess either,

The ECB just keeps buying government debt and corporate bonds, job done 

[BearyBear]

Just now, confused said:

Ja ich spreche ein bischen Deutsche 

That stooq sits looks like my sort of site, nice n simple! any good?

Are you polish? I have a funny old polish friend in england, to be fair he's been there a very long time, he talks about 'bloody foreigners' 

Yes I am, well done!   living in the UK since 2004...

Stooq is a nice quick website without annoying ads and scripts. They quote most of the instruments that I trade including ETFs.

[Harley]

Well I've missed the market today given work but wish I had the time for a nibble as I expect a rebound of unknown duration.  The market is a binary discounting machine and has now made the mental switch to the new normal.  So severe in the last few days many must be flushed out, especially those on margin or with multi-year profits to protect.  I worry about the banks and my cash. 

But as DB says, you need a prior plan before logging in and I don't have a detailed one yet.  The good news is things are worth a look now.  Time to marshall things for tomorrow.  May even put some bids in for the FTSE open.  My one regret: not buying my pre-selected stock for exactly now: SUK2!  But then I would still have had to have risked a ton to cover other lossess, and when to buy?  That last point is going to be the killer as getting out is relatively easy, it's getting back in before things race ahead and you just can't do it that's hard. 

So a bit more nibbling when everyone is nursing a hangover is what I need to do.  As the PSIs said, never sit down, crawl but never sit down, 'cause you'll never get up.  Maybe I need a nibble just to ensure I'm not sitting down!

[Don Coglione]

31 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Can CNA survive this? 

Almost 90% down from peak...

Cheers, Iain Conn!

 

At least you were born with the correct name...

[kibuc]

34 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

@kibuc or anyone else have any views on Minera Alamos or Mako Mining 

Minera Alamos is one of my selected few holdings. They've got all the cash they need for Santana and gold production there will commence in Q3. I consider it on par with Fortuna in terms of being undervalued. 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, onlyme said:

finger in the air

Happy with that! Good take on things, in my opinion