Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, BearyBear said:

Maybe... but the supply is still at record lows.

 

Fits with what i see. 

 

Its just over priced dross for sale as most are too skint to move. 

1 minute ago, BearyBear said:

Maybe... but the supply is still at record lows.

 

And reminds me of when i contacted the BOE about theur new lending policies in 2012... They said... It can't be a bubble due to the low volumes 

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Democorruptcy]

45 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just looking at Shell and BP long term on the monthlies, they are much the same price now as the 2016 low or the 2009 low, BP even passed the Macondo low, it's totally insane! Before that, July 1996. It just screams to me that this sector is having it's bear market now, for whatever reason. Obviously I don't know if this is the bottom or not, but it must be close. Conditions today are no worse than 2009 or 1998, and not much worse than 2016. Decl - I bought alot of them today, more BP than Shell. BP was priced for bankruptcy after Macondo, to exceed that low now is just stupid. 

I'm beyond fully allocated, so I'm not going to talk about these shares any more. I hate sounding like I'm talking my book. I'll stick to macro stuff.

RDSB annual report out today. You're the expert in the field, have a read when it's ready and let me know if I need to buy more toilet rolls.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07

[Democorruptcy]

28 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Lobby my tory mp..... 

 

 

See this? When he casually says we are going to guarantee loans, people don't get who is paying do they? Can't believe it's 80%.

 

[Alifelessbinary]

54 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just looking at Shell and BP long term on the monthlies, they are much the same price now as the 2016 low or the 2009 low, BP even passed the Macondo low, it's totally insane! Before that, July 1996. It just screams to me that this sector is having it's bear market now, for whatever reason. Obviously I don't know if this is the bottom or not, but it must be close. Conditions today are no worse than 2009 or 1998, and not much worse than 2016. Decl - I bought alot of them today, more BP than Shell. BP was priced for bankruptcy after Macondo, to exceed that low now is just stupid. 

I'm beyond fully allocated, so I'm not going to talk about these shares any more. I hate sounding like I'm talking my book. I'll stick to macro stuff.

Personally I find your posts balanced and well informed. Please talk about these shares as you have a clear ‘edge’ in this area and have access to the market gossip.

This thread is about sharing information on the markets and ideas, not whinging about politics or house prices (which may or may not get cheaper!).

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Clicked on... Todays risers. 

 

'there are currently no risers' 

The bug fallers look travel related and... Persimmon. 

 

Not enough handouts? 

[BearyBear]

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Clicked on... Todays risers. 

 

'there are currently no risers' 

Is it from this morning..?

 

[Barnsey]

SMEs might be getting a hand out but the big employers will REALLY struggle to get through this, whilst the stock market and the "real" economy are two seperate things, it certainly is a solid harbinger of whats to come:

Cineworld -46.47% JUST TODAY

[Loki]

Just bought a small amount more BP.

[BearyBear]

Lol

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Just bought a small amount more BP.

I am sitting here with my finger over the buy button.

[BearyBear]

BTC -24% 

[onlyme]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am sitting here with my finger over the buy button.

I think it might be less painful if you poked your eye with it.

[BearyBear]

14 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am sitting here with my finger over the buy button.

Of course it's your money but what makes you think it's the bottom..?

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Of course it's your money but what makes you think it's the bottom..?

Who knows how low its gonna go, just another ladder for me pension innit.

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

SMEs might be getting a hand out but the big employers will REALLY struggle to get through this, whilst the stock market and the "real" economy are two seperate things, it certainly is a solid harbinger of whats to come:

Cineworld -46.47% JUST TODAY

It will be interesting to see how CBs respond.Cash flow is key at the minute.You have to feel for the travel industry.The likes of Tui are very well ran,but nothing they can do when flights banned.Il be glad if only a couple of stocks im buying go under  

[Loki]

35 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am sitting here with my finger over the buy button.

It might never be this price again. Maybe

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

It might never be this price again. Maybe

Be wary of FOMO 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

27 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Of course it's your money but what makes you think it's the bottom..?

Will thw bottom start with a

 

5,

4,

3,

2,

1,

0

? 

 

Depends on how bad the second peak is. 

[Bear Hug]

I can't have FOMO, pretty much run out of cash, down probably about 25%, went in too quickly

10 minutes ago, confused said:

Be wary of FOMO 

 

[nirvana]

@Bear Hug shot your load too early, schoolboy error, practise the edging technique! 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

49 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

BTC -24% 

Blimey!!! 

 

Some safe haven. 

 

People realised you can't spend it when tshtf

[Alifelessbinary]

Behavioural economics shows that people are inherently rubbish at calling either the top or the bottom of the market. 

I don’t think anyone is saying it’s the bottom, just based on their strategy time to buy another ladder.

’If’ the oil price snaps back shares like BP/Shell kick off a very welcome dividends to combat inflation.

 

[kibuc]

Looks like a beginning of another panic sale day in PMs.

[BearyBear]

15 minutes ago, confused said:

Be wary of FOMO 

I am in FOLM mode (Fear of Losing Money) so I'll sit on a big cash pile for now... 

[headrow]

Apache Corporation in the US results just out. 

Apache Corporation (NYSE: APA) today announced multiple actions being taken in response to the current oil price environment. The company reduced its 2020 capital investment plan to a range of $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion from a previous range of $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion. Over the coming weeks, the company will reduce its Permian rig count to zero, limiting exposure to short-cycle oil projects. Activity reductions are also planned in Egypt and the North Sea. In Suriname, upon the conclusion of operations at the Sapakara West-1 exploration well, the company will proceed, as planned, to a third exploration prospect.

 

Additionally, Apache’s board of directors has approved a reduction in the company’s quarterly dividend per share from $0.25 to $0.025, effective for all dividends payable after today, March 12, 2020. The company will use the $340 million of cash retained annually from the dividend reduction to further strengthen its financial position. Apache has ample liquidity through its $4 billion undrawn revolver and considerable flexibility to manage the $937 million of bonds maturing between February 2021 and January 2023.

“We are significantly reducing our planned rig count and well completions for the remainder of the year, and our capital spending plan will remain flexible based on market conditions,” said John J. Christmann IV, Apache’s chief executive officer and president. “We are also further reducing operating and overhead costs as we continue to implement our corporate redesign program, which began in the fall of 2019. These decisive actions will benefit Apache as we navigate these challenging market conditions.”

 

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