Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[kibuc]

Fortuna Silver beats on revenue (Q4) and EPS (Q4 and FY). First pour at Lindero next quarter. Cash & equivalents position of $83m.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, CVG said:

My overactive imagination! It makes my Permanent Portfolio (style) investing feel more exciting!

https://monevator.com/the-permanent-portfolio/

A fellow permie eh, good lad. 

I've been meaning to see how the likes of Personal Assets Trust are doing given their goal is to outperform at such times as these.  Last I looked about a year ago they historically hadn't that much.

Talking of trusts, MoneyWeek managed to turn on their recorder this week (I kid you not) and produce a podcast.  Very good and suggested looking at investment trusts now trading at big discounts.  Not a fan of such collectives but I am as yellow stickered as the rest!

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anyone like Aviva at the moment? 10% divi, plenty of cash and income, low debt...what am I missing.

I'm now worrying about the security of such quoted divs.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anyone like Aviva at the moment? 10% divi, plenty of cash and income, low debt...what am I missing.

Aviva were pretty darn quick to remove their travel disruption add on for new and existing travel insurance customers, wasn’t too happy personally but does make you wonder just how much of an effect these few months will have.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have no idea why anyone would even attempt to buy any stocks at this time.

Things are bad now but what happens when inevitably major companies start to go bust around the world.

Surely you have to be patient and wait until this disease dissipates.

A valid warning but I find things difficult to judge.  Yes, that on the one side and on the other is the market is down for reasons other than just CV and will move so accordingly, plus I would be worried about companies and people going bust and taking banks with them, or rather bank bail ins with my cash balances.

I think I'll just do a bit of this and a bit of that, including grabbing some fallen angels but not enough to get too hurt.  Maybe I need a series of plans like a daily, weekly, monthly so that I don't rush.

[CVG]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

A fellow permie eh, good lad. 

Yep. It got a very bad reputation while 100% equity portfolios were trouncing it year after year. But if you're not greedy and just want a small real terms return with lower volatility then this is the way to go. Set it up and sleep well!

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

A valid warning but I find things difficult to judge.  Yes, that on the one side and on the other is the market is down for reasons other than just CV and will move so accordingly  plus I would be worried about companies and people going bust and taking banks with them, or rather bank bail ins with my cash balances.

I think I'll just do a bit of this and a bit of that, including grabbing some fallen angels but not enough to get too hurt.

The Dow Gold ratio tells me that we haven't scratched the surface yet.

When it approaches 1:1 I will start to buy again.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

18 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

If you know where the next bottom will be... let us know

Give warren buffett a quick call and ask when hes buying?

in other news:

"House prices expected to increase amid growing demand!"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-expected-to-increase-amid-growing-demand-000146853.html

Ya couldn't make it up!

BTW,  BP now £2.99 !

[VeryMeanReversion]

 

 

My SIPP is nearly £100K down from peak value a few months ago.  I should be upset but it doesn't seem to bother me in the slightest.  My aim is to buy income for retirement using divi-paying stocks and I've got quite used to swings of up to +/-£10K a day over the last few years. Divi's still roll in at £20-25K per year.  I expect divis for the next year or two to be lower but relatively stable long-term.

I had kept 20% of SIPP as cash and PMs (silver/platinum) so I am now feeding that into stocks as the prices drop.   Every time the FTSE drops another 200-300 points, I put another £10K in.  At this rate, I'll be fully in stocks by the end of next week!

I think that this will be the last time before I retire to get big divi-payers this cheap.  I'll take the risk that some of my FTSE holdings will simply go bust this year.

 

 

 

 

 

[Solzhenitsyn]

11 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The Dow Gold ratio tells me that we haven't scratched the surface yet.

When it approaches 1:1 I will start to buy again.

Currently at 14.3, lowest I can see was 2011 at about 5.7.......... assuming you dont expect it to actually get anywhere near 1:1

[BearyBear]

Just now, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Give warren buffett a quick call and ask when hes buying?

in other news:

"House prices expected to increase amid growing demand!"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-expected-to-increase-amid-growing-demand-000146853.html

Ya couldn't make it up!

BTW,  BP now £2.99 !

Already texted him but no reply

Nice article, house prices can only go up as they say... 

[Solzhenitsyn]

11 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Give warren buffett a quick call and ask when hes buying?

in other news:

"House prices expected to increase amid growing demand!"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-expected-to-increase-amid-growing-demand-000146853.html

Ya couldn't make it up!

BTW,  BP now £2.99 !

So a bit of bad weather can apparently slow sales and subdue prices, but a global pandemic is fine? F*#&* estate agents!

[Democorruptcy]

53 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I can’t even bear to log into my ii account any more 

At least I know I’ve bought some relatively solid companies at prices I thought were very reasonable vs their previous lows over a long time horizon. It’s the action of Silver and GDXJ which is really hammering my balance, the market needs huge liquidity and stability, here’s looking to you Ms Lagarde, hopefully not a “laggard”

I'm only logging in to buy something 

Mon RDSB at 16.50 is borderline, Tue DTY at 4.00 isn't good at the moment, today UU at 8.25

Say your pwayers wabbit.

[Agent ZigZag]

2 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

Already texted him but no reply

Nice article, house prices can only go up as they say... 

Market confidence and its effect has been something to behold this year concerning the housing market. Expected prime central London is pencilled to be up 5% by end of year.  

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, CVG said:

Yep. It got a very bad reputation while 100% equity portfolios were trouncing it year after year. But if you're not greedy and just want a small real terms return with lower volatility then this is the way to go. Set it up and sleep well!

Perfect for my SIPP as I approach retirement.  A bit light on bonds though given the logical rap they get here.  I've "cheated" though and classed NS&I bonds (various types) as bonds.  Or is that reasonable?

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I wouldnt touch the Dow with a barge pole

I would if an ounce of Gold bought the Dow.

[Green Devil]

Ftse crashing hard. 

[Harley]

I'm going to update my financial spreadsheet today, and then climb into one of my ditches with it!  Actually, I'm interested to know how my assets allocations have done.  Indeed, the Permie Portfolio can be boring, until it's not!  Be interested to know how others have fared, in the round.

[DoINeedOne]

Can't well for tax reasons can't access more money from my company till April the new tax year maybe that will be a good thing to see where we are with this virus then 

 

here is my current allocation

[CVG]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Perfect for my SIPP as I approach retirement.  A bit light on bonds though given the logical rap they get here.  I've "cheated" though and classed NS&I bonds (various types) as bonds.  Or is that reasonable?

No. That's cheating! I class my Premium Bonds as Cash. Long term gilts were my best asset class last year but I sold them early (a lesson hard learnt).

It's odd. As I approached retirement, a few years back, I started (2 years out) rebalancing my portfolio out of equities and into a deposit(cash) fund just so as to protect it from a scenario like today hitting just immediately before retirement (pity those poor buggers retiring today). Now I'm in retirement I'm back into equities per my investment strategy.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, CVG said:

No. That's cheating!

The Index Linked ones of old?  

[Green Devil]

I sold most of my equities a while back. I have bond funds which are doing well. Some miners which are OK. My crypto stash is getting decimated, but I will to buy more of that soon. I had Dow puts which covered some losses but I'm out of those now. I think cash is king right now if you sold before this crisis. 

[Harley]

The wonderful thing about Carnival again going down (9% today) is 9% of nothing is nothing!

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

The wonderful thing about Carnival again going down (9% today) is 9% of nothing is nothing!

Same for CNA!

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, CVG said:

No. That's cheating! I class my Premium Bonds as Cash. Long term gilts were my best asset class last year but I sold them early (a lesson hard learnt).

It's odd. As I approached retirement, a few years back, I started (2 years out) rebalancing my portfolio out of equities and into a deposit(cash) fund just so as to protect it from a scenario like today hitting just immediately before retirement (pity those poor buggers retiring today). Now I'm in retirement I'm back into equities per my investment strategy.

Well done.  Allocation is king and needs to vary as you vary, but in a more sophisticated way than the "bond allocation according to your age rule" (e.g. PMs).  Not a lot of people know or care about that.

[nirvana]

Cash is king, along with Bank of Mattress