Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

some much for the IR Cut ....FTSE is collasping ...DOWN now - 90 points!

yes boss this is what I'm worried about......we've gone so far down the shit infested rabbit hole, it's gonna explode spectacularly and we all get covered in exploding turds and/or covid19....

[King Penda]

5 hours ago, BearyBear said:

My question:

"What would you advice a young working couple who can't afford to buy any property? They are trying to save but HPI constantly beats saving rates offered by banks because of your policies... what should they do?"

Move to where houses are cheaper maybe take a pay cut there’s no guarantee to be able to buy where you were brought up there realy is a north south divide 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

so much for me moaning to HL, NOT getting BP at £3.05

...should be able to pick 'em up SOON @ £2.69p

SHELL B soon to ...£11.69?

[Barnsey]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,and the market hits them even when the results are good considering the economy and where we are in the cycle.Dignity has terrible management though,massive debts etc.G4S is probably a decent buy at these levels,but i avoid companies like them because the margins are pretty low and its the worlds 3rd largest private company,half a million staff.

Costain looking pretty darn cheap today after announcing £100m equity raise, lowest since March 2001.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

28 minutes ago, confused said:

yes boss this is what I'm worried about......we've gone so far down the shit infested rabbit hole, it's gonna explode spectacularly and we all get covered in exploding turds and/or covid19....

NO need to worry, ALL of us good-dosbods-folks here are going to SURVIVE...HOW/WHY?

Cos...we have the "Secret Protection Formula" agaist covid19

You say ...ya don't have it? ya slacking young man  ...pull ya socks up!

 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Don't forget the £2bn for pothole repair....

And there's me having just bought a bag of the black stuff to repair the hole in the road outside me driveway.  That makes it actually about £6 under £2bn!

[Talking Monkey]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,and its all unfolding exactly as we thought.First you get rates on the floor,then you inject through fiscal policy,then the CB monetizes the newly printed money so it is direct inflation,then government builds a road,green energy etc.The dis-inflation is now in its death breath.People will be shocked by the printing to come,incredible amounts.The debt cant be paid,the derivatives are a poison.They need to be monetized by CBs.When the market wakes up the movement from treasuries/gilts/debt to assets will be incredible.I hope they spend quickly,at least that gives the companies we are aiming at a better chance of surviving.

 

However in the very near term would CB action lead to some short term rotation from treasuries into stocks potentially giving that last hurrah, then rotation back to treasuries through any anticipated bust, after which would be the big market wake up you mention where the huge movement into inflation assets occurs

 

[Harley]

Seems I missed a bit of a ding dong in the most unlikely part of the internet while digging my ditch this morning!   Apologies or I would have ended it then and there with a threat of more spreadsheets!

PS: I don't think I'm a hypocrite as I post my ding dongs on those "other" threads upstairs!  The protagonists seem quite gentlemanly and focussed down here.  All very professional!

PPS:  The sad thing about digging ditches is you have to fill them in again.  I never liked Keynsianism!

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Interesting, Is it in-play glued to the screen? are you successful at sports betting? If ya don't want to answer here shoot me a PM, OR you can tell me:  don't be so nosy me and to p*** off!

Yes in-play only.

Re DTY the regulators are getting involved as they were supposedly charging people too much, which is partly why the share price is down 80% in 3 years! Sometimes I just can't help myself, when I smell fear with a big daily drop like 19% I have to have a little tickle. I was partly thinking insurance play, in case the virus really did get worse and with the oil price dropping the energy they use will get cheaper! Buying anything at the moment isn't for the faint hearted and those who might need to sell. 

 

[Harley]

I looked at DTY back in the day for my income portfolio.  After all, must be a sure bet.  But their financials were a shock.  That takes real talent!  Just goes to show, DYOR.  Mind you, quite a few of the stocks I did buy could do with their services right now.  Just goes to show, what the eff do I know!

[Harley]

Been wondering, is it possible the oil price war is aimed more at the Saudis than US shale given the Russians are allied with their Iranian enemy and must be itching to get on with things in the region post(ish) Syrian the conflict?

PS:  Funny old world.  The other guy digging the ditch was thinking and talking (a lot) about boobies at the time!

[onlyme]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Been wondering, is it possible the oil price war is aimed more at the Saudis than US shale given the Russians are allied with their Iranian enemy and must be itching to get on with things in the region post Syrian conflict?

Mentioned this the other day, think it explains the situation

 

[JMD]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

And there's me having just bought a bag of the black stuff to repair the hole in the road outside me driveway.  That makes it actually about £6 under £2bn!

Don't underestimate your value there Harley, surely worth much more than £6, especially if you were to include good neighbourlyness as one of those intangible assets (like all good company financials do!). 

btw I did reply earlier re the skm dividends, in case you missed my post.

[Harley]

Just now, JMD said:

btw I did reply earlier re the skm dividends, in case you missed my post.

Saw that thanks and started to reply then thought I needed to research.  I think there are two stocks (4% or 4.9%, probably the same).  Maybe to do with ADRs.  Will look closer as it's been an interesting and educational deep dive.

7 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Mentioned this the other day, think it explains the situation

Thanks.  Heard this guy before on other matters on Financial Sense(?).  Like him.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know, really. Exxon are an expensive partner, I know that. They have some of the best people, tech and processes. They are very strict on financial hurdles for big projects. O e thing I dont like about them is they have recently gone into the permian in a bug way. They also have a large shale gas business, maybe its high cost. I havent dug into it.

thanks CP, yes I read that they have big shale business, and also I guess whatever large natural gas reserves they do possess - those reserves might be expensive to extract, as per their current cost base. I do own some Exxon. But I think I will stick with buying more Shell as think they are much safer bet especially at current price.

[Bricks & Mortar]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been wondering, is it possible the oil price war is aimed more at the Saudis than US shale given the Russians are allied with their Iranian enemy and must be itching to get on with things in the region post(ish) Syrian the conflict?

PS:  Funny old world.  The other guy digging the ditch was thinking and talking (a lot) about boobies at the time!

That's my take.  The Saudis are funding the rebel Syrians that the Russians are fighting. 

[nirvana]

 

44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes in-play only.

I knew a really good trader years ago, lost touch then heard he'd given up the trading and was doing in-play betting in TENNIS! I was gobsmacked!

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thanks.  Heard this guy before on other matters on Financial Sense(?).  Like him.

@onlyme just finished the video.  Time to buy the merchandise given my "like him" comment!

[nirvana]

12 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

That's my take.  The Saudis are funding the rebel Syrians that the Russians are fighting. 

I find this an interesting angle too.......Don't forget the Saudis are VERY good buddies with the yankies too.......If either one of these parties suddenly wanted to put a rocket under OIL they could just start doing a bit of 'war mongering' 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Another (5.04%) off the down Jones 

[Loki]

I think my next chunk of reflation prep cash will be going on some more physical PM...at least it looks pretty even when the price in GDP (Value? You decide) falls

 

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Another (5.04%) off the down Jones 

So is that the dead bat bounce done with for this week then...

[nirvana]

9 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Another (5.04%) off the down Jones 

You need to watch monday's low.......

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 minutes ago, confused said:

You need to watch monday's low.......

Last or next? 

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

I think my next chunk of reflation prep cash will be going on some more physical PM...at least it looks pretty even when the price in GDP (Value? You decide) falls

 

No... The express said this was a bad idea

[Shamone]

10 hours ago, Tdog said:

I went to Bournemouth the other week for a quick look around and to see what i could get for my money.

I decided i will never live there again.

Traffics a joke and house prices are even worse. ... as they say never go back in life.

An old guy said just this to me the other week, he lives in my old town. I totally agree with it.