Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

Thinking this CV has been largely discounted by Mr Market (maybe not fully in US) but plenty of collateral (mainly financial) shocks to come.  Technicals generally stabilising.  Definite rotation.  It's like walking through a minefield.  OK DB (the bank) remains a known but most would be a surprise to all other than insiders.  No doubt some gaming of the system with these recent regs (and maybe more, especially to patch the problems caused by the first, and so on).  That'll be kicked off by the usual crew used to making money when they get on top of things, which they do pretty quickly (advance warnings?).  See a lot of political noise in the US.  The opposition have to look patriotic but given a chance....and the markets may react to that.  Trump looks weak.  Question is just how weak are the Dems.  The real action though could be China and co.  They could eventually do very well as a block, largely free of the West.  The US will have to retrench.  Too much at home.  No real exit strategy for the UK.  Never was though.  Keiser reckons the Fed, etc will force buy the market, effectively taking it private.  Maybe sell it on later to their mates.  Little left for us, just feudalism.  Investment portfolios need more than just financial stuff.  Hard assets, hidden assets, productive assets, life support assets, and so on.  If we want to question our thinking then maybe that should be whether we are assuming too much that the current game, however rough it gets with deflation, inflation, etc, remains the same.  That we may be fighting the last war.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

So what does this do to the FTSE and sterling? Opinions?

Saw a chart of who's printed the msot and the US was the highest %age GDP.........sterling is toast ten years, positioning for dollar/sterling weakness makes a lot of sense

5 hours ago, Majorpain said:

That business support is very welcome, Finance Director's everywhere will be sleeping a little easier over the weekend.

I am intrigued about the loans however, the hordes of zombie firms would love nothing more than to leverage up to the max for a year with cheap government loans and leave the taxpayer with a very expensive bill when the inevitable "unfortunately" happens.  There must be some form of stress test to sort the wheat from the chaff...

I was wondering how this would be gamed,I've been enlightened by your post.

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Ive been told as an oil and gas worker I'm on the critical list and can get schooling for my kid if I need to. Its no comfort, there will still be redundancies, but I have to laugh at how quickly the green thing went out the window when the shit hit the fan and they have recognised it as a systemically important industry. Turns out we do need fossil fuels to keep the lights on after all. 

It's great isn't it.Months of how we're going to go green,parading Jim Cramer to tell us all to buy Tesla and sell BP,then the gubbermint goes full dinosaur.Modern govts are so full of bull.Makes one long for the honesty of Thatcher or KInnock.

I'm on the critical list as well.Was gutted.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'm on the critical list as well.Was gutted.

Congrats on your promotion to join such heady company as the So-Called BBC folk.  Presumably all you folk will share the same spaceship!  Trust the luvvies to sneak on board!  Good luck with that!

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Congrats on your promotion to join such heady company as the So-Called BBC folk.  Presumably all you folk will share the same spaceship!  Trust the luvvies to sneak on board!  Good luck with that!

Gotta keep the licence fee flowing in times of strife or seomthing untoward  might happen to the Truth without them on the watch.

@Harley you boguth many chemical companies yet?

[sancho panza]

Deflation cometh

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/20/ten-real-estate-mutual-funds-suddenly-gated-as-covid-19-batters-uk-commercial-property-values/

After Epic “Run on the Funds,” 10 More Real Estate Mutual Funds Shuttered as COVID-19 Batters UK Property Values

by Nick Corbishley • Mar 20, 2020 • 64 Comments

Triggered by the belated realization of the risks in mutual funds that offer daily liquidity but invest in illiquid assets.

By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET:

Over the past two days, 10 open-end property funds in the UK have slammed their doors shut on investors, citing concerns about asset valuation. The funds’ two property valuers, CBRE and Knight Frank, say that it is currently impossible to accurately value the funds’ real estate assets amid the market chaos being caused by the response to Covid-19.

“The UK commercial property market is facing unprecedented circumstances as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, and so valuation firms can no longer make reliable judgement on value. This is known as ‘material value uncertainty’,” said Paul Richards, managing director of the Association of Real Estate Funds (AREF), in a statement. To justify the fund suspensions, Richards cited new FCA rules applying to funds investing in inherently illiquid assets, such as commercial property:

“Funds with more than 20% of their portfolio subject to material valuation uncertainty are required to suspend subscriptions and redemptions in the interests of all investors. Although these rules are not due to come into force until September 2020, existing rules would require fund managers to consider suspending funds in circumstances like the ones they are facing at the current time.”

The first fund to shut its doors was Kames Property Income, with £504 million under management. That was on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, Janus Henderson and Aviva, which respectively manage property portfolios worth £2 billion and £461 million, had followed suit. Then, over the next 24 hours, another seven funds did the same.

Between them, these funds manage some £11 billion of assets, equivalent to around a third of the total assets under management in the UK’s property fund sector. They invest in commercial real estate across the UK including offices, industrial property and retail parks, a sector beleaguered by retailer failures and crushed values. Just this week, one of the UK’s largest mall owners, Intu, warned that it was on the verge of bankruptcy after posting a £2 billion loss and a 22% plunge in the net asset value of its commercial properties.

Now, it’s the property fund sector that’s beginning to wobble. That includes the sector’s biggest player, the £2.9 billion Legal & General UK Property, which, like AREF, justified its decision to suspend redemptions by citing the “unprecedented set of circumstances caused by the COVID-19 virus” and its impact on “market activity across all sectors”:

“This means that “independent valuers are unable to rely on previous market experience to inform their opinion of values of the properties held by the Fund. We believe this suspension to be the fairest outcome for all investors, taking an appropriate forward looking view through the current crisis.”

Other large funds that have suspended redemptions include the £2 billion Janus Henderson UK Property, the £1.7 billion Standard Life Investments UK Real Estate, the £1.1 billion Threadneedle UK Property and the £1.1 Aberdeen UK Property. These open-end mutual funds are particularly prone to liquidity crises in the event of market sell-offs, as the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee warned repeatedly, starting in 2015.

When investors take their money out, the fund will use up the remaining cash and then has to sell assets in the portfolio to raise money to meet the redemptions. This is normally not a problem when the assets in question are highly liquid, such as large-cap publicly traded stocks. But when the assets are commercial real estate that can take weeks or months to sell, if they can be sold at all in a hurry, particularly in a downturn, there is a mismatch in liquidity between what the fund offers to its investors (daily liquidity) and what the fund holds (largely illiquid assets). Eventually, the fund runs out of cash and has no choice but to close its doors, leaving investors trapped and having to contemplate big losses.

In June 2016, in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, six commercial real estate (CRE) funds suspended redemptions. Now, things are even worse than that.

Almost all of the funds that shuttered this week blame their decision on valuation concerns. Words like “volatility”, “liquidity” and “cashflow constraints” were conspicuously absent from the press releases. BMO explicitly emphasized that the suspension of its two funds was “not related to any liquidity event”, which is curious given that many of these funds were already suffering a sustained wave of withdrawals long before the coronavirus struck.

In 2019, UK property funds suffered record outflows of £2.2 billion, equivalent to one in every 15 pounds of assets under management, according to investment funds transaction network Calastone. The sector has suffered net withdrawals in every quarter since 4Q-2018. By the end of last year, things had gotten so bad that M&G Investments, the fund management arm of UK insurance giant Prudential, decided to halt dealings in its direct property fund, which has more than £2.5 billion in assets under management, as well as its feeder fund.

Unlike its peers that suspended withdrawals this week, M&G made the decision to suspend its property portfolio after “unusually high and sustained outflows” triggered by “Brexit-related political uncertainty and ongoing structural shifts in the UK retail sector.” According to Morningstar, the portfolio had had only one month of positive flows since Britain voted to leave the EU in June 2016.

The gating of M&G in December, just two months after the closure of the £3.7 billion Woodford Equity Income fund which left investors facing losses of more than half of their money, has seriously spooked investors, who finally began to realize the dangers of entrusting their money with funds that offer daily withdrawals while investing in highly illiquid assets. This realization has turned into a run on the funds, forcing the other large open-end property mutual funds to close their gates, all at virtually the same time.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Gotta keep the licence fee flowing in times of strife or seomthing untoward  might happen to the Truth without them on the watch.

@Harley you boguth many chemical companies yet?

I saw your earlier post and noted.  I'm going to get on top of this at the weekend as sick of being on the back foot (and being indoors!).  Been ok so far as every delay has made things cheaper but that's started to turn.  

I'm refining my selection approach and company scoring.  Really enjoy Investing.com with FT.com back up.  If only the Investing.com screener could report in one base currency and enable cross country screens.

I'm revising my selection criteria to go harder on stress areas such as cash flow.  Such are the times.  I was thinking my criteria would be OK when they came up with DBs stocks but not yet.  Don't know how he does it but it seems to work.

Hope to have something on the chemicals, etc Sunday or Monday. 

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Triggered by the belated realization of the risks in mutual funds that offer daily liquidity but invest in illiquid assets.

Ah, my favourite topic of worry next to bail ins.  I may have mentioned before!  By why stop at property funds and mutuals?  EFTs, etc have yet to be fully tested.  6 ETF providers trying to sell to each other a liquid market doath not make!  Maybe fine.  I hope so as I have some.  

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

I saw your earlier post and noted.  I'm going to get on top of this at the weekend as sick of being on the back foot (and being indoors!).  Been ok so far as every delay has made things cheaper but that's started to turn.  

I'm refining my selection approach and company scoring.  Really enjoy Investing.com with FT.com back up.  If only the Investing.com screener could report in one base currency and enable cross country screens.

I'm revising my selection criteria to go harder on stress areas such as cash flow.  Such are the times.  I was thinking my criteria would be OK when they came up with DBs stocks but not yet.  Don't know how he does it but it seems to work.

Hope to have something on the chemicals, etc Sunday or Monday. 

No pressure,Appreciate any insights.

 

@kibuc @Errol @anyone else any views on this

'Source: @S_Mikhailovich on Twitter

While the spot price for silver, as set by the vast silver futures market, says the price of silver is $ 12, at APMEX (another massive US based bullion dealer), the price for Silver Eagles is over $ 20 dollars - even if you're buying them by the thousand.

 

There’s always a premium for buying silver coins above the spot silver price. Goal 60%? There’s a supply squeeze going on here folks, as the everyman scrambles to protect their wealth.

 

Just like in the tales of Robin Hood, precious metals are in short supply, and those that have them, hoard them, though the spot price is plummeting now while there’s a rush for currency in the financial markets, I expect the price to soar once the dust has settled and all the money printing is priced in.

 

Notes from the roof

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

My parents live in rural Ireland. Pretty much off grid, not by design, its just how it is there. My wife is a city girl and she's never fancied my dreams of downsizing there. That's changed this week: my parents could care less about the virus, and demonstate where you want to be when getting old. Downsides top, but I think many people will be along those lines as this progresses. Creeping control, health risks, surveillance, Ugh.

I agree. I live in the centre of a large city in Europe. It’s very built up and all the bars, cafes, restaurants, cinemas etc have been closed since last weekend. I’ve been forced to work from home since then too and I’m lucky that I have a roof terrace so do have a little bit of outside space, but there’s not much to do. At times like this living in the middle of nowhere where you can simply go for a walk surrounded by greenery is very appealing.

[Sugarlips]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

My parents live in rural Ireland. Pretty much off grid, not by design, its just how it is there. My wife is a city girl and she's never fancied my dreams of downsizing there. That's changed this week: my parents could care less about the virus, and demonstate where you want to be when getting old. Downsides top, but I think many people will be along those lines as this progresses. Creeping control, health risks, surveillance, Ugh.

One of the most interesting aspects of this whole disaster is how people will change their ways.

little things can be adapted to, I imagine long hair (M+F) is now going to be in vogue as no one will risk going to the barber. Things like dental check ups will be postponed which is fine for most of us but what if you have a toothache, are we back to tying the tooth with string and slamming the door? 

Escaping to the country is going to be more appealing but the downside longterm is living without the everyday convenience we are so used to and for most the lack of social interaction side of things.

A lot will really struggle with adapting and if the subsequent inflation is as bad as predicted here they may end up stranded if they can’t afford to fuel the Land Rover or feed the kids, bad winters need to be a consideration as well.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Ah, my favourite topic of worry next to bail ins.  I may have mentioned before!  By why stop at property funds and mutuals?  EFTs, etc have yet to be fully tested.  6 ETF providers trying to sell to each other a liquid market doath not make!  Maybe fine.  I hope so as I have some.  

I thought about this the other day I.e the value of buying index ETFs (say FTSE100) for an `average Joe` investor whilst the markets are so unpredictable.

My thesis is that even with experience, buying individual shares whatever their quality is unpredictable and could lead to big losses through bankruptcy of companies, whereas with an index ETF you may lose some money but you won't `lose your shirt` due to its diversification...not saying this is right, just a thought to share/prompt discussion.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Creeping control, health risks, surveillance, Ugh.

This...I don't want to distract this thread so will keep it brief, but to me the whole UK appears to have gone crazy/hysterical in the last week, and people seem oblivious to sudden erosion of civil liberties.

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Fact

%>65 yrs in Italy=22.4%

%>65 yrs in UK=18%

I agree we are in different phases of the infection cycle but would you expect the mortality rates to be in step with Italy given the above demographic information, the fact that we have a months more knowledge of its epidemiology, and that we are applying a `flattening curve` approach?

I sat and watched the 3 NHS bigwigs last Thursday saying they were hoping to arrange proper medical kit for front line staff within a week. It was a disgrace. Apparently a lorry load of stuff went to 15 hospitals yesterday. Warned we were, prepared we were not.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I agree. I live in the centre of a large city in Europe. It’s very built up and all the bars, cafes, restaurants, cinemas etc have been closed since last weekend. I’ve been forced to work from home since then too and I’m lucky that I have a roof terrace so do have a little bit of outside space, but there’s not much to do. At times like this living in the middle of nowhere where you can simply go for a walk surrounded by greenery is very appealing.

I'm very lucky in that respect, been out walking in the sun recently. I will be able to do that here no matter what happens re lock down without even leaving the farm. I've also worked from home since 2003, so that bit doesn't bother me. All I want is a bit more blue on my screen now instead of in the sky! 

[sancho panza]

45 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I sat and watched the 3 NHS bigwigs last Thursday saying they were hoping to arrange proper medical kit for front line staff within a week. It was a disgrace. Apparently a lorry load of stuff went to 15 hospitals yesterday. Warned we were, prepared we were not.

I've come on to post a couple of charts DM but can't but comment on your story.I can well believe it.I look at the masks we've been issued thus far(and I've not seen a Corona case in anger yet) and there looks to be a distinct difference between the masks the Italian hospital staff I see on TV  are using and the surgical masks we're being given in the Ambulance service(although things may have changed since I was last in-they are trying to adapt)

I've been heartened and saddened in equal measutre by the UK govt reponse.Social distancing ie staying apart/washing hands/working from home where possible are good responses.However,the lack of testing means policy is being directed by what is at best, utter guesswork. The lack of follow through in one area is not surprisingly replicated with a lack of forethought in others.This is possibly a natural consequence of having career non clincian politicians in charge of the NHS.

Watching the Italian situation unfold,there was a piece in the report I watched where the Doctor was saying that -in refererence to the establishment of a ten or fiffteen bed temporary ICU- that only 1 patient had made it out alive in the last two weeks.

Triage is defined as follows

Whilst I don't wish to step above my pay grade ,the notion of doing the most for the most underpins a lot of Western medicince particularly in dealing with trauma or mass casualty situations where resources are swamped.These occur at times outside of pandemics and clincians particularly at Consultant level in Resus,have to take some incredibly hard decisions sometimes.On rarer occasions,Ambulance/Police/Fire staff have to take decisions on the ground that are tough.

In a polite way,what I'm trying to say is that,in an emergency situation for instance,targeting the big spend items to try and save a couple of lives has to be balanced against omitting to purchase items that could prevent infection to many more eg testing/PPE.

[sancho panza]

hattip kaplan

https://ycharts.com/companies/GDXJ/discount_or_premium_to_nav

 

[MrXxxx]

42 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I sat and watched the 3 NHS bigwigs last Thursday saying they were hoping to arrange proper medical kit for front line staff within a week. It was a disgrace. Apparently a lorry load of stuff went to 15 hospitals yesterday. Warned we were, prepared we were not.

Well it takes time to authorised/go through the proper procedure...unless of course you want to legislate a law to restrict civil liberties, apparently this can be done at the `drop of a hat`!

[sancho panza]

hattip kaplan again

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/physical-demand-for-silver-spikes-as-price-drops-to-an-11-year-low-2020-03-19

Physical demand for silver spikes as price drops to an 11-year low

10

Published: March 19, 2020 at 2:39 p.m. ET

By

Myra P. Saefong

 

On March 12, U.S. Mint said it temporarily sold out of American Silver Eagle bullion coins.

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Referenced Symbols

 

SIK20

+4.12%

GCJ20

+1.47%

 

Silver prices have dropped to their lowest level since 2009, boosting demand for the physical metal at a rate not seen in a decade.

Supplies of physical silver, as well as gold, “remain well below extremely strong demand,” said Dana Samuelson, president of precious-metals dealer American Gold Exchange, Inc. “The fall in the underlying gold and silver prices, coupled with the potential recession due to the sharp economic downturn the coronavirus is causing has spurred the public to buy physical precious metals at the fastest pace in 10 years.”

 

On March 12, the United States Mint said it temporarily sold out of American Silver Eagle bullion coins. “Our rate of sale in just the first part of March exceeds 300% of what was sold last month,” the Mint said.

Sales of the one-ounce American Silver Eagle coins were at 3.1 million so far this month, as of Wednesday, compared with total sales of 650,000 in the month of February, according to data from the Mint.

 

“With both the U.S. Mint and the Royal Canadian Mint on back order for the most popular one-ounce gold and silver coins in the North American market, dealers have scrambled to buy anything that remains available to buy, driving bids substantially higher for all physical gold, silver…coins and bars that are immediately available,” said Samuelson.

On Comex, silver futures prices saw their most-active contract SIK20, +4.12% drop to $11.772 an ounce on Wednesday, the lowest since Jan. 22, 2009, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Prices moved up a bit to settle at $12.134 Thursday.

‘The poor man’s gold is on sale today and the fire sale will not last unless there is an all-out deflationary crash which brings its own appeal in holding silver as a hedge.’

— Peter Spina, SilverSeek.com

“The poor man’s gold is on sale today and the fire sale will not last unless there is an all-out deflationary crash which brings its own appeal in holding silver as a hedge,” said Peter Spina, president of silver news and analysis provider SilverSeek.com.

He disclosed that he recently made a large purchase of silver as its price ratio to GCJ20, +1.47% limbed to historic levels at roughly 130 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.

Read:Gold is setting records dating back over 5,000 years—against silver

Also see:Why gold’s plunge proves it’s a safe haven asset

Silver prices have seen sharp declines as “institutions have dumped silver for cash to pay for margin calls and other obligation, as well as hoarding cash,” said Edmund Moy, who was director of the U.S. Mint from 2006 to 2011.

He told MarketWatch that the rise in silver bullion demand is “just the beginning,” and is “primarily driven by individual investors who see silver as an affordable safen have and because of the lower prices, a buying opportunity.”

“Affordability is a major factor…silver appeals broadly to a less wealthy investors but a small change in prices is a larger percentage change for silver—and that upside attracts additional investors,” said Moy.

“Eventually, low silver prices will catch up to limited physical supply and increased physical demand,” he said. “And once the global economy begins to recover from this pandemic, silver demand from industry will recover too.”

But it’s silver’s industrial aspect that makes some analysts a bit more cautious.

Right now, silver futures look “ready to at least bounce in a significant way,” said Spina. However, “if there is another global market selloff, silver futures could get one more historic dump to [the] $10 area.”

“Much of the industrial demand news is not going to be good or great for silver for the coming weeks or months, so we need to get through this biggest contribution factor to silver,” he said. “Until then, investment demand is returning and if it keeps like this for several months and industrial [demand catches up]…it could really squeeze the price right back up and quickly!”

[MrXxxx]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've been heartened and saddened in equal measutre by the UK govt reponse.Social distancing ie staying apart/washing hands/working from home where possible are good responses.However,the lack of testing means policy is being directed by what is at best, utter guesswork. The lack of follow through in one area is not surprisingly replicated with a lack of forethought in others.

It called the PR approach to disease control...give the public some `old guff` via state controlled media and the majority will believe unchallengingly what they are told.

As for social distancing, a) when did basic hygiene become a new mantra, and b) agree it important for elderly/immune compromised/those with comorbidities, but a bit overkill for the majority.

[MrXxxx]

14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

hattip kaplan

https://ycharts.com/companies/GDXJ/discount_or_premium_to_nav

 

SP, what's the point you are making here (im a novice so genuine Q).

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

At times like this living in the middle of nowhere where you can simply go for a walk surrounded by greenery is very appealing.

Yes, helps but plus and minuses.  Rural crime has been a bit of an issue for a while.  But that's because the locals had a notional police force.  That goes and things could change, against the criminal.  A lot of similarity between the military and farming community.  Plus many locals are ex forces and here for a reason.  Another issue is people coming here to stay with relatives, etc only flood the limited infrastructure (food, utilities, heating oil, and medical) so end up having it worse than the more populated areas, while the locals suffer too.  Probably more downsides yet to reveal themselves, but I moved out many years ago, partly (and I kid not), for this sort of eventuality (or more precisely for the social implications of this thread (yes I was "on page" many years ago!)).  In terms of this thread, this helps me invest in more meaningful things such as generators, an allotment, etc, hence me going on about concepts such as "value" and "wealth".  That said, a lot can be done even in an urban setting (see Detroit).  Just needs lateral thinking.

[StrugglingMillennial]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

As for social distancing, a) when did basic hygiene become a new mantra, and b) agree it important for elderly/immune compromised/those with comorbidities, but a bit overkill for the majority.

Its more to keep the numbers to a manageable level so the NHS doesn't get swamped which is already happening at some hospitals and 111 call centres.

With all the information that is avaliable i'm still convinced we are in for further sell off's, the US is yet go into full lockdown and the UK is just starting to and as things get serious people will naturally dump assets in favour of paying the mortgage and other bills.

While the government is going to pay 75% of workers wages it doesn't include self employed workers and there are still plenty of people who have unsecured loans, car loans e.t.c that total more than 100% of their wage.

[Alex]

Without wishing to derail this thread any further, I had the choice between seeing out the apocalypse in a city centre Berlin apartment or on a small farm in rural New Zealand. I chose the former, after careful consideration of all the pros and cons (it wasn't an easy choice). I've been anticipating something along these lines since I was a teenager. Will be interesting to see if I've called it right.

Thanks to everyone on this thread for the deflation-reflation insights. I'm happy with my own investment preparations, even if some of them are currently in the red.

[Democorruptcy]

46 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've come on to post a couple of charts DM but can't but comment on your story.I can well believe it.I look at the masks we've been issued thus far(and I've not seen a Corona case in anger yet) and there looks to be a distinct difference between the masks the Italian hospital staff I see on TV  are using and the surgical masks we're being given in the Ambulance service(although things may have changed since I was last in-they are trying to adapt)

The committee I saw is here, the bit about kit at starts at 1h 9mins for about 10 mins. Basically the bigwigs say we have lots of kit but nobody has thought to distribute them across the country. It's car crash TV.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gzw1/select-committees-coronavirus-committee 

[Talking Monkey]

4 hours ago, Alex said:

Without wishing to derail this thread any further, I had the choice between seeing out the apocalypse in a city centre Berlin apartment or on a small farm in rural New Zealand. I chose the former, after careful consideration of all the pros and cons (it wasn't an easy choice). I've been anticipating something along these lines since I was a teenager. Will be interesting to see if I've called it right.

Thanks to everyone on this thread for the deflation-reflation insights. I'm happy with my own investment preparations, even if some of them are currently in the red.

What were the main factors which swung it for you Alex