Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Markets have gone nuts today........if this is a taste of things to come, it's worth 'buying every dip' hmmmmmmmm

Absolute BUSTER of a move! Posting more ladies for @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker 

 

They are fake, if she lets go of them they will bottom out and their asset price will implode.

Fnarr.

[nirvana]

Sorry bit childish......on a more serious note, FIBER aka EURUSD, Draghi was a master of manipulating that thing.......I recall watching the press conference in, must have been 2011, when he brought it down from the highs......

On the other hand Lagarde is a bloody disaster and a crook to boot....

[Majorpain]

36 minutes ago, Errol said:

 

China has rapidly become a global leader in automation - dated 2017: https://www.themanufacturer.com/articles/china-breaks-global-records-automation/

 

Per Capita is a lot lower, and they still have a long way to catch up.  The majority of the components will come from Japan/Taiwan/Germany, although they were making headway in that regard, that's where the hordes of students in Western Universities to hoover up intellectual property for China's gain come into play.

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Hard to see the Euro getting the bid here.

Its critical to what happens to the Dollar, and a key reason IMO why its hesitant to properly roll over.  Its very sad watching them try to bend the rules and get the South bailed out, looks like the proposal is ECB > Banks > lend to Eu Commission > Bailout National Governments in some sort of weird legal money laundering scheme to get around the German Courts meddling.

Idiocy like that indicates to me this may well be "a crisis too far" for the Euro, fingers crossed its not because the consequences for UK would be severe even at the best of times.

[sancho panza]

43 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Per Capita is a lot lower, and they still have a long way to catch up.  The majority of the components will come from Japan/Taiwan/Germany, although they were making headway in that regard, that's where the hordes of students in Western Universities to hoover up intellectual property for China's gain come into play.

Its critical to what happens to the Dollar, and a key reason IMO why its hesitant to properly roll over.  Its very sad watching them try to bend the rules and get the South bailed out, looks like the proposal is ECB > Banks > lend to Eu Commission > Bailout National Governments in some sort of weird legal money laundering scheme to get around the German Courts meddling.

Idiocy like that indicates to me this may well be "a crisis too far" for the Euro, fingers crossed its not because the consequences for UK would be severe even at the best of times.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/17/third-mega-crisis-in-12-years-eurozone-economy-plunges-at-fastest-rate-on-record/

The preliminary GDP in the first quarter for the Eurozone fell by 3.8%, according to Eurostat’s flash estimates (for the entire EU, it fell by 3.5%), “the sharpest declines observed since the time series started in 1995,” Eurostat said. This is despite the fact that most of the region’s lockdowns did not begin until mid-March:

France suffered a mind-watering 5.8% collapse in GDP in the first quarter, the “biggest drop” on a quarterly basis since the Second World War,  according to the country’s INSEE statistics agency. Even in the second quarter of 1968, when France was roiled by civil unrest, mass student protests and general strikes, the economy still shrank by less (5.3%) than it just did. In the first quarter of 2009, when the financial crisis was pummeling Europe’s markets and Greece was beginning to teeter, France’s GDP shrank by a comparatively mild 1.6%.

Spain already had depression-era levels of unemployment before this crisis even began. In the first three months of this year unemployment rose to 14.41%, from an 11-year low of 13.78% in the previous quarter. Given the speed of the slowdown and the scale of economic destruction it has already caused, particularly in the all-important tourism sector, it’s probably just a matter of time before that figure surpasses the 20% threshold for the fourth time in 36 years (chart via TradingEconomics):

To keep its own domestic economy alive, Germany has mobilized €750 billion in grants and loan guarantees to companies, both large and small. But few EU countries have Germany’s fiscal firepower or bureaucratic efficacy. Certainly, Spain and Italy don’t. In Spain, just 20% of small companies that have requested emergency loans have actually received them. In Italy, the government has pledged a whopping €740 billion in crisis funds — just €10 billion less than Germany — but as of the end of April, only €3.1 billion of those funds had actually been released.

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

France suffered a mind-watering 

What’s that if it’s not a Chinese torture treatment? Did they mean mind blowing or eye watering or both? Maybe they saw the above blonde..

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, you would have to have everything in place long before people realise what is going to happen. Capital controls don't take long to go into operation. @Harley is way ahead of the game on this one, and I am about 4-5 years about being where I want to be. But the key thing is: I don't need much. A bit of land, woods, access to fishing, a house with it's own water and heat, I'd live quite happily with very little money. If I have extra, I'll probably buy forestry. I'll always have gold and silver physical, I'll be passing it on to my son.

That's interesting CattleProd, I didn't realise - unless I have misunderstood - that you are actively preparing for a full prepper-type-situation, ie anticipating/mitigating for societal collapse. I comment because I know I personally wouldnt be capable of executing such an ambitious all encompassing plan and have previously commented same to Harley. Anyway the dilemma (as I see it for me) is that although I'd like to have a plan in place, there unfortunately doesn't appear to be a 'half-way' type solution - because unless you have a water supply, then even having say a gas/oil heater/cooker plus a 6-month food store, then the absence of having an adequate water supply would effectively invalidate all other emergency planning. It's an interesting subject and maybe it also depends what form of social breakdown is expected, ie pandemic, monetary collapse or something else?

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

13 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, you would have to have everything in place long before people realise what is going to happen. Capital controls don't take long to go into operation. @Harley is way ahead of the game on this one, and I am about 4-5 years about being where I want to be. But the key thing is: I don't need much. A bit of land, woods, access to fishing, a house with it's own water and heat, I'd live quite happily with very little money. If I have extra, I'll probably buy forestry. I'll always have gold and silver physical, I'll be passing it on to my son.

For me i need to work out where i want to be UK or abroad then start to research areas to slowly move to and put things in place

This. I am surprised by in a SHTF scenario how many on this thread are planning to stay in the UK...i was too, but after the recent/current way Covid19 is being handled I am now looking for a future retirement based overseas, primarily on my radar at the moment is Sweden...any others thoughts?

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Oooh look, just checked the Standard Life Aberdeen shares that I've never been arsed to sell.

They are worth exactly what they were 10 years ago and are at 40% of what they were 12 months ago.

Bag of shite.

Not a fair comparison, as about three years ago they had a reissue (when SL became SLA) thus diluting the holding...that said, they've not performed brilliant recently ...but still continue to pay a divi....a rare beast in the current climate!

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

This. I am surprised by in a SHTF scenario how many on this thread are planning to stay in the UK...i was too, but after the recent/current way Covid19 is being handled I am now looking for a future retirement based overseas, primarily on my radar at the moment is Sweden...any others thoughts?

Sweden looks like a prime candidate to become a caliphate,probably best avoided.

Croatia has a good climate and an aversion to the religion of peace.

[ThoughtCriminal]

35 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Sweden looks like a prime candidate to become a caliphate,probably best avoided.

Croatia has a good climate and an aversion to the religion of peace.

I’ve always thought that, but in my time rebutting the many attacks on the Swedish Covid strategy, I’ve discovered that the Norrland region of Sweden is two thirds of the land mass, has only a million people in it and is stunningly beautiful being mostly lakes, forest and mountains. It’s also inhabited by actual swedes. 
 

Just need a Swedish wife........

[Majorpain]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In Italy, the government has pledged a whopping €740 billion in crisis funds — just €10 billion less than Germany — but as of the end of April, only €3.1 billion of those funds had actually been released.

Amazing find, that's the critical bit as all that liquidity (for whatever reason) isn't making its way into the real economy yet.  It will be interesting to see what that figure looks like at the end of May, hopefully its significantly higher or companies are going to be in drama and Italy is toast.

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52719230
 

UK unemployment almost doubled in a month. 
 

As we say in the bronx: shits about to get real 

 

Note: that doesn’t include people on furlough who are unemployed but just don’t realise it yet.

[M S E Refugee]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/imperial-brands-cuts-dividend-by-a-third-2020-05-19

[geordie_lurch]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Note: that doesn’t include people on furlough who are unemployed but just don’t realise it yet.

Exactly 

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Wait out DM,give it time to mature like a good wine.This downtunr has barely begun.

As you know I'm in Wales so still in lockdown. Nothing is happening because hardly anything is coming to market (most recent £680k last sold £285k in 2005) and viewings aren't allowed. Here I don't see my competition as local folk who might be going to lose their job, it's people in secure public sector jobs (!) buying holiday homes to retire to later on. Like a Policeman who bought one he doesn't want to live in for 10 years so it's gone as yet another rental. Looking at some places in England mentioned on here, it seems a lot of sales have fallen through. If I was there I'd be trying some very low ball offers hoping to catch some fear. 

[Don Coglione]

51 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I’ve always thought that, but in my time rebutting the many attacks on the Swedish Covid strategy, I’ve discovered that the Norrland region of Sweden is two thirds of the land mass, has only a million people in it and is stunningly beautiful being mostly lakes, forest and mountains. It’s also inhabited by actual swedes. 
 

Just need a Swedish wife........

Christ, you don't want much!

[Loki]

30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Looking at some places in England mentioned on here, it seems a lot of sales have fallen through. If I was there I'd be trying some very low ball offers hoping to catch some fear. 

Not even thinking about it till end of year

• Winter/Christmas desperate sellers
• Job insecurity
• 'Big kahuna' as per Dave Hunter, or sector rotation as per durhamborn.

Either way I expect the volatility will be the house buyer's friend

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Christ, you don't want much!

Haha

 

A Swedish wife and a dozen acres in the middle of nowhere and I’ll be like a pig in shit. 😂

[TheCountOfNowhere]

This'll make some on here chuckle.  Killer Bunny is back on TOS predicting pretty much what DB has predicted for a couple of years now.

The funny bit was I had to block him on twitter for his tweets about HPCers being idiots, they were all wrong, house prices aren't going to fall, rates are going up.

He's back, self proclaiming he was right all along.

He'll be along her soon enough....

[sleepwello'nights]

34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Haha

 

A Swedish wife and a dozen acres in the middle of nowhere and I’ll be like a pig in shit. 😂

Needs a lot more global warming before living in the middle of nowhere in Sweden would appeal. The Swedish wife bit sounds OK.

[Barnsey]

25 minutes ago, Loki said:

Not even thinking about it till end of year

• Winter/Christmas desperate sellers
• Job insecurity
• 'Big kahuna' as per Dave Hunter, or sector rotation as per durhamborn.

Either way I expect the volatility will be the house buyer's friend

Wise words @Loki, I was getting a little too optimistic about making some low ball offers straight out of the gate but I think it’s going to take a little time for sellers to realise the gravity of the unemployment situation and the lags at play. Forget all the optimists saying it’s only affecting the low earning renters. What I DO know is the market ain’t going up from here, so at best I’m just losing rent money, but it’s impossible for the housing market to not be affected by the highest unemployment numbers since the early 90s (and that’s EXCLUDING furloughed). The fear of unemployment even for those in “safe” jobs is a mightily powerful force.

What has been a sudden shock is actually going to be more drawn out than I initially thought thanks to all the forbearance and furloughing, and there inevitably will be a small number of buyers who will succumb to committing even in these crazy times. So even though I’ve been waiting to buy for several years now, with various calculations and plans fixating on 2020, I’m now probably looking to buy early 2021, about 6 years after friends jumped into the bubbly SE market which we’ve recently relocated away from.
 

It’s been a real draining slog on my self esteem to be honest, 5 years of waiting for a decent housing market correction is a rather long time when life just seems to be passing by ever more quickly, and I can’t wait to actually just get it over with, but Im pretty sure I can find the strength to hold on a few more months!

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

As you know I'm in Wales so still in lockdown. Nothing is happening because hardly anything is coming to market (most recent £680k last sold £285k in 2005) and viewings aren't allowed. Here I don't see my competition as local folk who might be going to lose their job, it's people in secure public sector jobs (!) buying holiday homes to retire to later on. Like a Policeman who bought one he doesn't want to live in for 10 years so it's gone as yet another rental. Looking at some places in England mentioned on here, it seems a lot of sales have fallen through. If I was there I'd be trying some very low ball offers hoping to catch some fear. 

Definitely seeing a LOT of previous STC coming back now, stay focused on your chosen markets as it tells a far greater story than media articles. I’d be expecting some of those holiday homes to be sold off too by business owners desperate for liquidity in coming months.

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

t’s been a real draining slog on my self esteem to be honest, 5 years of waiting for a decent housing market correction is a rather long time when life just seems to be passing by ever more quickly, and I can’t wait to actually just get it over with, but Im pretty sure I can find the strength to hold on a few more months

You and me both mate.  We just have to not shoot our load too early 

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I’ve always thought that, but in my time rebutting the many attacks on the Swedish Covid strategy, I’ve discovered that the Norrland region of Sweden is two thirds of the land mass, has only a million people in it and is stunningly beautiful being mostly lakes, forest and mountains. It’s also inhabited by actual swedes. 
 

Just need a Swedish wife........

It shouldn't be too difficult to find a Swedish wife.

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

It shouldn't be too difficult to find a Swedish wife.

Or perhaps a Eurovision singer?

1974:

2020: