Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

I have numatic vacuum downstairs it's very bulky and heavy. I was gifted a lighter vax by someone returning to Sweden, so now I'm living the dream.the vax is upstairs.   Being a bloke I avoid vacuuming stairs. If I really need attend to the stairs i will likely only do half at any one time.

I like my Vax. I got it for £35 in a Vax own sale highlighted on moneysavingexpert that was for damaged boxes. When it came the side of the box had a small dent about as big as the end of my thumb that didn't matter at all. The same Vax was £169 at Currys.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

re. dividend paying utility stocks as bond proxies...

Democorruptcy, I genuinely appreciate the feedback if I've said something stupid there. But in the context of this forum I had genuinely considered this to be one of my take-aways from visiting here. Am I wrong?

I admit my use of the term 'proxy' is pretty loose (maybe should have used the 'alternative' safe word!). But the next cycle, along with big gov. spending projects, will greatly favour telecoms/energy providers/etc, with these types of companies being the sector bedrock. As always selecting which ones, and getting them cheap/unleveraged is the challenge.   

      

I don't think you have said anything stupid and I agree about them for the next cycle. I know a lot of people on here don't rate Labour's chances at all but betting wise they are 20% of the market so I thought they were a risk worth mentioning. I think energy/utility prices now are beaten down because of it. I have a watchlist of them called 'Tory Win'.

[BearyBear]

Meanwhile HSBC is slashing rates on saving accounts... including the reg saver from 5% to 2.75%...

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Too late now! Just up 13% today!

Shares of some UK power companies gain after Reuters
report the European Commission set to approve UK billion-pound
power backup plan
    ** Drax Group  DRX.L  jumps >10%, Centrica  CNA.L  rises
2.8% and SSE  SSE.L  adds 2.2%
    ** European Commission is set to give go-ahead for power cos
to get roughly 1 bln pounds  ($1.23 billion) to help bear
maintenance cost in case of outages, Reuters report citing
sources  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N26P2SM

Sun came out so I went for a walk!

Last thing I was looking at was buying Drax at 250

 

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Yeah got Drax DB along with Centrica, SSE and Renewi for my energy stocks, with alerts set up for Weir, BP and Shell should they drop quite a bit from here.

Tempted by Galliford Try as looks like they're finally getting rid of their Linden Homes business to Bovis in next few months. Just have to hope they make it through along with some others, and are in a position to benefit massively from unprecedented Gov spending (since WWII anyway) to climb out of what's to come in 2020.

Barnsey, sorry but im not familiar with two of those stocks, would you mind confirming is Renewi a waste/recyling company, and Weir global engineering?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Too late now! Just up 13% today!

Shares of some UK power companies gain after Reuters
report the European Commission set to approve UK billion-pound
power backup plan
    ** Drax Group  DRX.L  jumps >10%, Centrica  CNA.L  rises
2.8% and SSE  SSE.L  adds 2.2%
    ** European Commission is set to give go-ahead for power cos
to get roughly 1 bln pounds  ($1.23 billion) to help bear
maintenance cost in case of outages, Reuters report citing
sources  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N26P2SM

Drax was ready for a bull run technically wise.  Just not this turbo charged one.  I was waiting for a more genteel buy signal!  Hopefully my SSE and CNA will creep up too.  Not sure I want another energy stock TBH.  But will revisit if the price pulls back.  

[Loki]

Brexit a foregone conclusion?! Third and fourth lines made me double take.  Unusual to see such committed language 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Barnsey, sorry but im not familiar with two of those stocks, would you mind confirming is Renewi a waste/recyling company, and Weir global engineering?

Spot on, Renewi is admittedly a punt but they've got huge potential, Weir should do reasonably well in the reflation but really need the price to come down. Both small holdings I'll be averaging into, nothing that keeps me up at night.

[Barnsey]

"Temporary" overnight repo ops now extended out to 4th Nov, watch that balance sheet grow, BUT IT'S NOT QE OKAY!!! 

[BearyBear]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

"Temporary" overnight repo ops now extended out to 4th Nov, watch that balance sheet grow, BUT IT'S NOT QE OKAY!!! 

$180bln in 4 weeks... QE on Steroids! Dave Hunter may be right, a stock market melt up on the way..?

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm after foreign shares that can be traded in sterling.Would that be GDR's?

Appreciate any help.

 

eg this investing.com listing for Reposl

https://www.investing.com/equities/repsol-ypf?cid=948827

 

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/chesapeake-energy-usd-cdi you can buy a lot of them on HL

If you go to the link below you can search every share they do in the A to Z and its a case of going to the company and seeing if there is a Crest version.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c

For instance again here is the Exxon one

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/exxon-mobil-corp-comm-stk-npv

Some you can get,most you cant.

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

US job figures are still coming in very strong.

US has run out of employable people.

Companies are doing job fairs in prisons.

US business cycle has turned down Spy,job numbers dont matter they are a big lag to the business cycle.Big capital goods go first and they are tanking.Big industrial companies will be seeing layoffs very soon.

[Bricks & Mortar]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

Brexit a foregone conclusion?! Third and fourth lines made me double take.  Unusual to see such committed language 

They did this in the months running up to March 29th as well.  I think it's just part of the negotiating - to show the EU lot that Britain's really serious.   I don't think it has any bearing on what might or might not happen.  Just that DEXEU told HMRC to word it that way.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

US business cycle has turned down Spy,job numbers dont matter they are a big lag to the business cycle.Big capital goods go first and they are tanking.Big industrial companies will be seeing layoffs very soon.

Yep, crucial detail today was avg hourly earnings growth declined from 3.2% in August to 2.9% in September, not a sign of strong demand. Lots of various lagging reports in the mix here.

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

They did this in the months running up to March 29th as well.  I think it's just part of the negotiating - to show the EU lot that Britain's really serious.   I don't think it has any bearing on what might or might not happen.  Just that DEXEU told HMRC to word it that way.

Oh...didn't know that

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

I had a look.  Not on Trading View but I found a weekly EQS list on the LSE website which contains it:

https://www.lseg.com/areas-expertise/our-markets/london-stock-exchange/equities-markets/trading-services/domestic-trading-services/european-quoting-service

Gives the code but not sure which brokers would trade it.

Me, I use a broker which supports multi-currency accounts and buy closer to the real exchange, although you can't hold currency balances in an ISA (but can buy stocks on a "recognised" exchange) but can in a SIPP.

Thanks for that Harley.I see lots of things on investing.com with LSE tickers but trying to buy them is something I've not managed.Maybe only for the big broker dealers..

 

Which multi currency provider do you use? We're currently with Interactive Investors but looking at Saxo/Interactive Brokers next week when I'm off.

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't think you have said anything stupid and I agree about them for the next cycle. I know a lot of people on here don't rate Labour's chances at all but betting wise they are 20% of the market so I thought they were a risk worth mentioning. I think energy/utility prices now are beaten down because of it. I have a watchlist of them called 'Tory Win'.

If Brexit party stand on the back of a weak brexit then we could see Tories 30%,Lib22%,Lab 22%,BP 12%.Which could mean the seat count breaking any which way.Could get a coalition LD's.My money will be on a Tory minority gov or Tory maj but very much depends on 31st Oct.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/chesapeake-energy-usd-cdi you can buy a lot of them on HL

If you go to the link below you can search every share they do in the A to Z and its a case of going to the company and seeing if there is a Crest version.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c

For instance again here is the Exxon one

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/exxon-mobil-corp-comm-stk-npv

Some you can get,most you cant.

Cheers for that DB.You'll laugh but I've been buying Exxon at HL for 6 weeks and having jsut checked ,it was the CDI listed as they don't trade the US version.

They also do the CDI in ENI.Like you say though,some you'd expect aren't there.

Many thanks for the explantion.

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

US business cycle has turned down Spy,job numbers dont matter they are a big lag to the business cycle.Big capital goods go first and they are tanking.Big industrial companies will be seeing layoffs very soon.

Im not sure.

Previous cyclees have seen employment respond to the FED running too loose money during an expansion.

Going by house sales and what not, this does not seem down to monetary expansion.

I think theres a combination of a lot of things - boomers retiring, opiod taking out huge swathes -remember theres a lof of people dying but theres many more who are off their tits at home, doing nothing, and stuff from China coming back and the fall out of gormless lunacy fsuch as outsouring.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, spygirl said:

Im not sure.

Previous cyclees have seen employment respond to the FED running too loose money during an expansion.

Going by house sales and what not, this does not seem down to monetary expansion.

I think theres a combination of a lot of things - boomers retiring, opiod taking out huge swathes -remember theres a lof of people dying but theres many more who are off their tits at home, doing nothing, and stuff from China coming back and the fall out of gormless lunacy fsuch as outsouring.

 

 

Very similar to here with out tax credit/universal credit mess.If i lose my job tomorrow id go from £2k+ a month income to  £320 dole for 6 months then nothing.My friend gets £2.2k a month on benefits come what may,he wouldnt notice a recession and takes no interest in the world around him.In the UK we are probably at the point where 50% of the economy is government,in my home town its around 80%.Its why downturns are sticky,and why productivity is stuck,we are in limbo.The way out of the above,and the way its worked since Egyptian times is inflation of course and the suckers who saved get destroyed.Fed has been tight for over two years now and is only getting loose at the short end again.They arent pumping,they are simply oiling the cogs,likely because one or more big banks are in a bit of trouble.They should be loose at the longer end as well,and will be,but, when its too late.

Here in the UK we need to get out of the EU as quickly as we can.They are going to suffer on a huge scale,where we are in a great position for the next cycle.Its only loose work at the moment,but im seeing a situation where sterling might go up with the dollar once it gets rough,if we are out of the EU.

[spygirl]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very similar to here with out tax credit/universal credit mess.If i lose my job tomorrow id go from £2k+ a month income to  £320 dole for 6 months then nothing.My friend gets £2.2k a month on benefits come what may,he wouldnt notice a recession and takes no interest in the world around him.In the UK we are probably at the point where 50% of the economy is government,in my home town its around 80%.Its why downturns are sticky,and why productivity is stuck,we are in limbo.The way out of the above,and the way its worked since Egyptian times is inflation of course and the suckers who saved get destroyed.Fed has been tight for over two years now and is only getting loose at the short end again.They arent pumping,they are simply oiling the cogs,likely because one or more big banks are in a bit of trouble.They should be loose at the longer end as well,and will be,but, when its too late.

Here in the UK we need to get out of the EU as quickly as we can.They are going to suffer on a huge scale,where we are in a great position for the next cycle.Its only loose work at the moment,but im seeing a situation where sterling might go up with the dollar once it gets rough,if we are out of the EU.

Similar experience.

I talk to people and the majority have no concept of work and skills. Just money turns up. Pure cargo cult.

Brcause theres no link between work and skill, no kids are being durected to work and skills - just taught the hoops to jump thru for vennies.

Cant go on and, to be honest, with MMR and UC, its not.

 

 

[Harley]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

We're currently with Interactive Investors but looking at Saxo/Interactive Brokers next week when I'm off.

What's wrong with Interactive Investors?

[mh9000]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very similar to here with out tax credit/universal credit mess.If i lose my job tomorrow id go from £2k+ a month income to  £320 dole for 6 months then nothing.My friend gets £2.2k a month on benefits come what may,he wouldnt notice a recession and takes no interest in the world around him.

 That’s crazy, why the huge difference in benefits out of interest? presumably kids under 18?

[Harley]

Alas they (any of them) will take all people's savings via inflation and directly (tax and worse) before they materially cut benefits.  We have a long and painful road to travel.

[spygirl]

22 minutes ago, Harley said:

Alas they (any of them) will take all people's savings via inflation and directly (tax and worse) before they materially cut benefits.  We have a long and painful road to travel.

People just need to vote.

As a rule, people on working age benefit just dont vote.

Besides, when Shazza's kids get to 170, her benefits gets cut, and, at the grand age of ~50, she finds herself having to 60h a week to afford the small bedsit, whilst pyaing taxes to support ShazJr and her 3 kids on benefits in a big house .... their outlook on benefits and taxes tend to change.

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, mh9000 said:

 That’s crazy, why the huge difference in benefits out of interest? presumably kids under 18?

3 kids,one down as ADHD ,partner claims carers allowance for that one plus PIP,plus all the extra tax credits.They have brand new car,new house they bought before they went on bennies,and eat out 3 nights a week at least.Up here most people are poor who work and have no kids,the well off are all those on benefits with kids,most fiddle them as well getting the full whack as single but have a working partner.I know a lot of people where the guy buys a house,rents it to his partner who gets housing benefit lives with her and they use the benefit to pay the mortgage off.When i was a councillor we had around 1/5 of houses rented to people where it had 5 or 6 people living there,when nobody lived there,they were simply a benefit drop address.

The two child limit has meant the massive payouts wont happen in the future,but the ADHD/PIP get a child down as disabled when really just a bit naughty route is still open and thats where the big money is.I know families who will get over a million in their lifetimes in benefits and havent worked since leaving school.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Alas they (any of them) will take all people's savings via inflation and directly (tax and worse) before they materially cut benefits.  We have a long and painful road to travel.

Agree,the time to cut was after 14,and the Tories did try with the tax credit changes but bottled it after the Lords defeat.The reforms were actually very sensible and still left a generous system,just a bit less generous.They did get the two child limit in though and that was a big one.The problem with benefits now is they pretty much equal working and paying a mortgage,and most people cant look ahead 20 years when its paid off,so they never ever progress or build any capital.Then their kids get nothing left etc.