Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The Royal Mint probably have the highest sales price for gold and silver coins. I won't buy from them.

Agree.  Although the product they're now adding VAT to is their Signature Silver and Platinum.  Its like buying a virtual slice of silver that they store for you.    Was alright while it was Vat-free.  Crap now. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't think it's quite the same. For one thing a utility company could be nationalised and shareholders paid below market value.

Only Argentina and Venezuela have apparently ever done that.

Just cap the price as inflation runs away, and watch the share price fall to buttons.  Then buy for 'market value'

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/heartbroken-thomas-cook-worker-says-she-cant-afford-to-pay-her-mortgage/ar-AAIcpBH?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=mailsignout

Debt deflation in action.Worked for 13 years yet defaulted on car (lease no doubt) first month of job loss,yet was on holiday in Jamaica.Imagine if she had bought a £2k car cash instead?.She could use that to go to an agency and be employed by the end of the week.These people are finding out that debt and lease means they have nothing.This is how stupid most of the population are.The think money can always be borrowed.That car lease bumping has trashed her credit score already as has the missed mortgage payment.Next car loan will be much more expensive and lease the same.Its not a job loss that causes this,its a complete lack of understanding about the economy and reality.

[dgul]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/heartbroken-thomas-cook-worker-says-she-cant-afford-to-pay-her-mortgage/ar-AAIcpBH?li=AAnZ9Ug&ocid=mailsignout

Debt deflation in action.Worked for 13 years yet defaulted on car (lease no doubt) first month of job loss,yet was on holiday in Jamaica.Imagine if she had bought a £2k car cash instead?.She could use that to go to an agency and be employed by the end of the week.These people are finding out that debt and lease means they have nothing.This is how stupid most of the population are.The think money can always be borrowed.That car lease bumping has trashed her credit score already as has the missed mortgage payment.Next car loan will be much more expensive and lease the same.Its not a job loss that causes this,its a complete lack of understanding about the economy and reality.

I'm actually quite frightened by what might happen.

See, the theory is that you can't miss what you've never had -- hence TPTB have supported things like asset prices (ie, people don't see losses), but have let people without assets suffer (ie, those people don't really miss things like houses or pensions that they've never had).

This time we'll see people losing houses and pensions -- that's bad enough.

But we'll also see those people that 'didn't have anything' losing their access to nice cars etc.  

I think crime will go through the roof.

[Barnsey]

39 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm actually quite frightened by what might happen.

See, the theory is that you can't miss what you've never had -- hence TPTB have supported things like asset prices (ie, people don't see losses), but have let people without assets suffer (ie, those people don't really miss things like houses or pensions that they've never had).

This time we'll see people losing houses and pensions -- that's bad enough.

But we'll also see those people that 'didn't have anything' losing their access to nice cars etc.  

I think crime will go through the roof.

I'll say it again, we're 4th in the World right now for household debt vs GDP. Tempted to buy some G4S but they've got too much debt too 

[Errol]

Probably the biggest news of the day:

 

RUSSIA'S ROSNEFT SETS EUROS AS DEFAULT CURRENCY IN ALL ITS EXPORT CONTRACTS || ROSNEFT ASKS FOR EURO PAYMENTS FOR EXPORT GOODS INCLUDING OIL, OIL PRODUCTS, PETROCHEMICALS, LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS || ROSNEFT STARTED TO ASK FOR EURO AS DEFAULT CURRENCY FROM SEPTEMBER

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-02/russian-oil-giant-rosneft-asks-traders-to-pay-in-euros-for-crude

[Harley]

21 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Tempted to buy some G4S but they've got too much debt too.

Ha, my journey too!

[Barnsey]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ha, my journey too!

I'm struggling to please my OCD and searching for my 20th bargain stock to start laddering into, but the choices are absolutely dire!

G4S, Galliford Try, Barclays, Sainsbury's or Petrofac 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Debt deflation in action.Worked for 13 years yet defaulted on car (lease no doubt) first month of job loss,yet was on holiday in Jamaica.

Fake news.  Presumably just a cash flow issue as she was running her current account low, saving excess cash elsewhere.  Doubtless she made the payments once back in the UK from her exotic all inclusive holiday she no doubt got dirt cheap, making a transfer from her rainy day fund.  Typical press trying to make a story.  No-one is that reckless apart from a very few who would hardly advertise the fact, knowing they would get short shrift from the scrimpers and savers out there.  Maybe with hindsight she should have made provision earlier as the TC situation must have been well known at work.  Would have saved the embarrassment and possible knock to her credit score, not that credit is prudent to fund consumption in case you lose your job, get ill, etc. Anyway, probably shouldn't pass comment without knowing all the facts which I'm sure were all discussed with the journalist.

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

G4S, Galliford Try, Barclays, Sainsbury's or Petrofac

My journey too.  I also have some empty slots, but after filling two portfolios with about 21 each.  For me, a bargain is a FTSE stock with a yield above 5% and no silly financials.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@sancho panza Welcome back! miss ya informative posts

BTW folks, Tescos is getting DIRE for the YRS, we had to wait for the Tesco woman with the sticker gun to stick each item before one of us could ...GRAB it!

Was in Aldi, Tesco's and the Co-op tonight!  Rubbish amounts off in Tesco and the employees were clocking out with most of it.  Aldi a no go as usual.  Co-op is the one - proper discounts on a wide range, not that I would pay the elevated full prices.

PS:  At least my spell of PMS (Panza Missing Syndrome) is over!

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I'm struggling to please my OCD and searching for my 20th bargain stock to start laddering into, but the choices are absolutely dire!

G4S, Galliford Try, Barclays, Sainsbury's or Petrofac 

You got Drax Barnsey?

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Fake news.  Presumably just a cash flow issue as she was running her current account low, saving excess cash elsewhere.  Doubtless she made the payments once back in the UK from her exotic all inclusive holiday she no doubt got dirt cheap, making a transfer from her rainy day fund.  Typical press trying to make a story.  No-one is that reckless apart from a very few who would hardly advertise the fact, knowing they would get short shrift from the scrimpers and savers out there.  Maybe with hindsight she should have made provision earlier as the TC situation must have been well known at work.  Would have saved the embarrassment and possible knock to her credit score, not that credit is prudent to fund consumption in case you lose your job, get ill, etc. Anyway, probably shouldn't pass comment without knowing all the facts which I'm sure were all discussed with the journalist.

You want to see the NHS staff my daughter works with,massive debts,zero savings,skint halfway through month and overdraft running full.They spend like crazy though.

[Ash4781b]

The much discussed Intu Plc looks to have had a torrid time recently. So-called is today pushing a news article that John Lewis are after rent/service charge reductions so this will be the ‘prime’ sites. Whether any Intu properties are involved i’m not sure.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

You want to see the NHS staff my daughter works with,massive debts,zero savings,skint halfway through month and overdraft running full.They spend like crazy though.

Shocking.  In my day a degree was a passport to a good (funded) life and your average nurse never needed to buy a drink.  I really don't know what's gone wrong.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

You got Drax Barnsey?

Yeah got Drax DB along with Centrica, SSE and Renewi for my energy stocks, with alerts set up for Weir, BP and Shell should they drop quite a bit from here.

Tempted by Galliford Try as looks like they're finally getting rid of their Linden Homes business to Bovis in next few months. Just have to hope they make it through along with some others, and are in a position to benefit massively from unprecedented Gov spending (since WWII anyway) to climb out of what's to come in 2020.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.This is how stupid most of the population are.The think money can always be borrowed.

They think the state will always bail them out...they seem to be correct...are they the stupid ones or is it the ones that pay for it?

[kibuc]

50 minutes ago, Harley said:

Shocking.  In my day a degree was a passport to a good (funded) life and your average nurse never needed to buy a drink.  I really don't know what's gone wrong.

Shocking indeed, but also very true. Our friends live in a shared ownership in Tottenham, she works with NHS for some really lousy money, he's a civil servant in some geological department I think, living paycheck to paycheck. They got £10k from inharitance some time ago, so obviously they spent it all on two cordless vacuum cleaners, new bikes and expensive holidays aaaaaaand it's gone.

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Shocking indeed, but also very true. Our friends live in a shared ownership in Tottenham, she works with NHS for some really lousy money, he's a civil servant in some geological department I think, living paycheck to paycheck. They got £10k from inharitance some time ago, so obviously they spent it all on two cordless vacuum cleaners, new bikes and expensive holidays aaaaaaand it's gone.

When I was young, I used to look in the window of Harrods.  I finally went in in my 40's and bought some of those loose chocolates.  Delicious.

[Castlevania]

25 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Shocking indeed, but also very true. Our friends live in a shared ownership in Tottenham, she works with NHS for some really lousy money, he's a civil servant in some geological department I think, living paycheck to paycheck. They got £10k from inharitance some time ago, so obviously they spent it all on two cordless vacuum cleaners, new bikes and expensive holidays aaaaaaand it's gone.

Why would you need two vacuum cleaners?

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

When I was young, I used to look in the window of Harrods.  I finally went in in my 40's and bought some of those loose chocolates.  Delicious.

They didn’t let me in. Gentlemen must wear suitable attire/no riff raff.

I was wearing shorts and flip flops.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Why would you need two vacuum cleaners?

To get it done in half the time?

[kibuc]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Why would you need two vacuum cleaners?

What else would you vacuum your vacuum cleaner with?

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

When I was young, I used to look in the window of Harrods.  I finally went in in my 40's and bought some of those loose chocolates.  Delicious.

Didn't have Harrods in Poland, but used to look in the bedroom window of my neighbour. Wouldn't fancy dropping by and trying some now though, probably way past the expiry date...

[CVG]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

My journey too.  I also have some empty slots, but after filling two portfolios with about 21 each.  For me, a bargain is a FTSE stock with a yield above 5% and no silly financials.

DYOR obviously, but have a look at Somero. "a manufacturer of laser-guided equipment. The Company's equipment automates the process of spreading and leveling volumes of concrete for commercial flooring and other horizontal surfaces, such as paved parking lots in North America. " Beaten back badly last few months and I'd expect a divi cut, but one of a kind in their industry (I'm thinking Amazon warehouses etc).

[Bricormortis]

37 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Why would you need two vacuum cleaners?

 

 

 

.

Got 2 arms.

Nah its one upstairs and one downstairs.  That's what I do.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

DYOR obviously, but have a look at Somero. "a manufacturer of laser-guided equipment. The Company's equipment automates the process of spreading and leveling volumes of concrete for commercial flooring and other horizontal surfaces, such as paved parking lots in North America. " Beaten back badly last few months and I'd expect a divi cut, but one of a kind in their industry (I'm thinking Amazon warehouses etc).

Thanks and spooky because I did!  I forgot why I didn't buy though.  Maybe I got called out on something. Probably written down with others on the mass of pieces of paper on my desk.  Time for a tidy up and some action!  Ta.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

.....I was wearing shorts and flip flops.......

Quite right, although apparently you can now even shop in your underwear, on line of course!