Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Excellent question Bricks&Mortar.

I assume TIPS are not an alternative here for the purposes of a short-term capitol protection play (i.e. 'buy before/sell after' crash) - because their coupon is lower/duration shorter, so wouldn't offer the same short-term capital protection? 

But should it be the IBTL(sterling denominated) or the IDTL(dollar denominated) one to buy? I'd assume the dollar one is better, but would it matter?

I find Treasuries confusing so some practical opinion from others planning/already doing this, would be very welcome.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-iv-plc-usd-treasury-bond-20-year

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-usd-treasry-bond-20yr-ucits-etf-usd

(I guess could just buy the actual T-note, but if aim is to just hold for the short term, the fund costs would be small)

IBTL and IDTL are the same fund. IDTL has tighter spreads but you’ll be hit for currency charges when buying/selling.

[JMD]

On 04/09/2020 at 20:19, Transistor Man said:

I have no special knowledge of investing in telecoms equipment companies, but from what i’ve seen over the years, it always seems very unpredictable.

All the 100G datacentre equipment is getting upgraded to 400 Gbps, then will go to 800Gps. Plus the 5G, and broadband upgrades, so I would guess the big players would do well. I went to a photonic IC conference 18 months ago. From what I saw, Infinera has got a unique technology for network switching: an indium phosphide single chip solution, with integrated lasers. 

Whereas, I think Ciena are going for a silicon photonics solution. Both great from a technical perspective, but no idea about investing in this area. 

Thanks Transistor Man. Apologies if i have asked you before but do you have any views/insights into carbon capture tech in the form of 'artificial trees' (devices that remove carbon dioxide from atmosphere)? Only I'm looking to track down good potential investable companies, funds, operating in this sector.

I guess its a very early emerging technology, so risky. But personally i think the tech will be developed - though i am sceptical that c02 is the main driver for global warming - i do think there will be an almighty clamor to use every 'weapon' possible in near future to fight climate-change (which i accept is happening, but more likely part of normal 10,000y climate cycle). India/China will soon be producing so much co2 that there will be a big 'political switch' into science/tech based solutions, and away from previous focus on social/tax based ones.

Another plus is if such tech happened it would be yet another demand on world silver supplies. In fact i think carbon-capture filters use more than, for example solar panels, because the carbon-capture filter utilizes silver as an 'active agent' that must be replaced periodically.

Quote extract (full article link below): 'The concept of artificial trees is a simple one, yet has immense appeal. The economy of energy would remain the same, enabling people to continue living existing lifestyles. Artificial trees would just allow us to maintain these lifestyles better.'

https://borgenproject.org/artificial-trees-absorb-thousand-times-co2/

 

[JMD]

23 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

IBTL and IDTL are the same fund. IDTL has tighter spreads but you’ll be hit for currency charges when buying/selling.

Thanks Castlevania. Lots of interesting discussions recently about how to preserve capital, and of how to secure wealth outside of the 'financial system'. I have limited ways of doing either, but apart from using the 'traditional gold/silver route', i think using things like IBTL and BTC are alternative ways of doing this.   

[Transistor Man]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

 but do you have any views/insights into carbon capture tech in the form of 'artificial trees' (devices that remove carbon dioxide from atmosphere)? Only I'm looking to track down good potential investable companies, funds, operating in this sector.

-

Unfortunately, I don’t know much about that. But I have read something which may be useful:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2019-11-07-capturing-carbon-dioxide-make-useful-products-could-become-big-business

 in Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1681-6

if you need the full article, let me know.

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

On my mind now is the possibility to sell during the fall, and buy back at 10% lower.  If, say, BP falls from 260 to 240 and you sell at 250, and buy back at 240, isn't that a win?

Or is that messing around when it could bounce back and catch you with your pants down?

I like to do a bit of profit taking as much as anyone but those margins seem like risking running in front of a steamroller to pick up some pennies.

[sancho panza]

https://twitter.com/yvrstockbroker/status/1302037543190315009/photo/1

 

 

[King Penda]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I like to do a bit of profit taking as much as anyone but those margins seem like risking running in front of a steamroller to pick up some pennies.

Who has the safest divi nowadays anyway.and robust to weather the comeing crash

[Democorruptcy]

30 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Who has the safest divi nowadays anyway.and robust to weather the comeing crash

I don't want any more crashes thanks.

[Loki]

@DurhamBorn

You should apply for Masao's job...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-dilemma-support-jobs-or-head-asset-bubble

[Harley]

Apologies if this has been posted before and it's a bit old but I found it helpful to take a step back and look at the elephant in the room...

If anything, CV since this was filmed has exacerbated the shifts, especially the workforce participation rate.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Unfortunately, I don’t know much about that. But I have read something which may be useful:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2019-11-07-capturing-carbon-dioxide-make-useful-products-could-become-big-business

 in Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1681-6

if you need the full article, let me know.

Thanks Transistor Man, those are interesting articles. Does the nature link contain the 'full article' that you mention? If it does not is there another link to access the full article?

[Transistor Man]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Transistor Man, those are interesting articles. Does the nature link contain the 'full article' that you mention? If it does not is there another link to access the full article?

 

Pre-print of the Same article.

https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e0b08772-ea9a-423f-9d02-3edf46d9e5a1/download_file?file_format=pdf&safe_filename=Hepburn%20et%20al%202019%20CO2%20Utilisation%20-%20accepted%20version.pdf&type_of_work=Journal+article

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

 

Pre-print of the Same article.

https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:e0b08772-ea9a-423f-9d02-3edf46d9e5a1/download_file?file_format=pdf&safe_filename=Hepburn%20et%20al%202019%20CO2%20Utilisation%20-%20accepted%20version.pdf&type_of_work=Journal+article

 

Thanks Transistor Man, i think these green/climate projects show how massive future infrastructure spending will be. My interest in this area was sparked when i understood that the Western targets for achieving NetZero by 2050, will actually only mean that the West is no longer producing more c02 (perhaps i hadn't been listening before, but i hadn't appreciated this). However, the c02 already in the atmosphere - produced up to the point of becoming carbon neutral - will not disappear, it will remain and in fact it will continue to accelerate the warming of the planet. As stated before I am dubious of the science, but that is bye-the-bye, and of course none of this accounts for China/India's future c02 contribution. Anyway it seems obvious that carbon capture of many kinds will be harnessed to satisfy the global warming science 'agenda'(?). This will mean huge infrastructure so fits well with this thread's thesis. Of course if the tech works as predicted, and c02 does reduce, then global warming issues will become a busted flush. So, hopefully a win-win!   

 

[JMD]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

https://twitter.com/yvrstockbroker/status/1302037543190315009/photo/1

 

 

thanks for posting SP, always valuable to see another perspective/figure work, etc, for stocks you own/want to own. But what does the 'E' mean in 2020E title column heading? (estimate?)

[JMD]

Video is bit long, so maybe really only for those who haven't seen the great Lyn Alden before. She appears to be everywhere on the internet at present, and with good reason in my view (a real breath of fresh air). Interviewer is good also. (as an aside, i notice she is much more relaxed, having done so many interviews i expect - hopefully meaning she will eclipse more and more those ex-hedge-fund types, hedgy by career and hedgy with their opinions ?!?) 

 

[janch]

RMG have good results and the share price up by 23% as I write.  Let's hope they can get their act together:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54068885

John Moore, from stockbrokers Brewin Dolphin, said the company had a juggling act ahead of it.

"Royal Mail will have to move quickly to adapt and undertake some major changes, creating a more flexible business and more efficiently dealing with its legacy operations, while keeping its staff on board during this period of transition," he said.

[jamtomorrow]

I imagine we'll be enjoying today's WTI price action, the further squeeze it puts on shale, and the possible BTFD opportunities for the usual suspects.

Any thoughts as to what's driving the price action?

Edit to add: come to daddy ...

[janch]

I think @Vendetta could be right!  Something's afoot.  Tesla - 16% just now and Nasdaq -330 pts.  Everything down including gold and silver.  Oil $36.79.  VIX nearly 35.  US 10Y -5.89%.

 

In the time it took to type this I daresay it's changed............for the worse  I just hope some of it finds its way into my bashed up portfolio..........

[AWW]

5 minutes ago, janch said:

Tesla - 16% just now

Possibly due to announcement of Nikola/GM tie-up?

...and of course the fact that the P/E ratio is north of 1,000

[Heart's Ease]

21 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I imagine we'll be enjoying today's WTI price action, the further squeeze it puts on shale, and the possible BTFD opportunities for the usual suspects.

Any thoughts as to what's driving the price action?

Edit to add: come to daddy ...

XOM $37.50

[AWW]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

XOM $37.50

Got another ladder at 38. Next stop 34.

[MvR]

17 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Who has the safest divi nowadays anyway.and robust to weather the comeing crash

Cash... until the crash has happened. Then there will be no shortage of opportunities.

[janch]

I think there may be a buying opportunity In the oilies.....I missed out in March........I'll wait for a bit though as they're all still falling

 

Just bought some more BP

[reformed nice guy]

Got some Repsol, Chevron and Gazprom. If Exxon goes below 36 I will get some.

[DoINeedOne]

Be nice if HL could hurry up and credit my gazprom dividend i want to reinvest it