Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

19 hours ago, JMD said:

I notice Dr Marc Faber, himself a resident of Hong Kong

I think it's a northern Thailand base, with his girlfriends and beer!  That's why I take him seriously!  Clearly knows what he's doing!

[jamtomorrow]

7 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

We might see BP under 200p here. Incredible how bad sentiment is right now. 

I went fully allocated in BP when it crossed 210p yesterday. Just Total to pick up now, which still seems to be defying gravity ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Current plan is to sit tight until the BK, when hopefully I'll back up the truck and deploy the other half of the war chest.

But based on @Cattle Prod's recent musings, I might have to accept it won't be oilies I'm putting on the truck, if indeed it's an oil spike that lights the fuse. Which is making it hard to resist BP today and just generally Stick to the F***ing Plan.

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Tingles said:

Short sighted, tiresome and inconvenient:

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-bans-sale-crypto-derivatives-retail-consumers

Why do all these relative thick people (highly probable they are) in all walks of life want to tell me how to live my life.  Are theirs so shite or something.  I have this great podcast app which has just had an excellent update.  So I go to their forum to congratulate them and the first thing I read is someone saying they should filter out "alt-right" (presumably according to his/her definition) podcasts so I don't get to choose.  They'll choose for me.  Since when should some nobody start telling me what I should listen to or not or consider me inferior to them in filtering out such stuff?  Alas we will see more and more of this as this CV response leaks across the board (a moving Overton window?) into other areas such as there and finance.  A new dark age is upon us.

PS: Not that fabled "intelligence" has got anything to do with it.  Just talking in their offensive language.

PPS: Rant over, feel better for now!  On with a sunny day of carpentry, taking care not to screw up that expensive (to replace) lumber! 

[JMD]

33 minutes ago, Harley said:

I think it's a northern Thailand base, with his girlfriends and beer!  That's why I take him seriously!  Clearly knows what he's doing!

oh really, must say i didn't know that about Dr Marc Faber (although you do now make me wonder, is he a real doctor?!?). 

[Loki]

Massive spike in the DXY. Wtf is going on?

[JMD]

51 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I went fully allocated in BP when it crossed 210p yesterday. Current plan is to sit tight until the BK, when hopefully I'll back up the truck and deploy the other half of the war chest.

But based on @Cattle Prod's recent musings, I might have to accept it won't be oilies I'm putting on the truck, if indeed it's an oil spike that lights the fuse. Which is making it hard to resist BP today and just generally Stick to the F***ing Plan.

Sorry, (perhaps i have missed a thread conversation/or just me being dim) but what might you be buying instead of oilies?

[wherebee]

well, my Australian stocks gave me 2% today.  YAY!

 

Then the Americans and Brits seem to have taken one look at the Biden Hunter Ukraine China news and gone all 'trading places'.  Down 3%!!

[DoINeedOne]

Ricks not a gretta fan

around the 32:00 talks about oil and gas and estimates peak oil around 2035 and that we will have a price recovery in oil and gas that will take your face off 

 

 

[Loki]

I am hesitant to post this, but it specifically mentions documented Fed policies, and we talk about the Fed on this thread.   I am posting it as I am Interested in others thoughts on this vid, rather than it being 'proof' of anything.

 

[jamtomorrow]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

Sorry, (perhaps i have missed a thread conversation/or just me being dim) but what might you be buying instead of oilies?

My filter is pretty simple, and riffs on the familiar themes from this thread (so I doubt any of this is "news"):

- sectors: energy, commodities, telco or "basic products"

- divis: *must* have a track record of sustainable divi yield - I'm buying primarily for income, and I want companies that are likely to pay an income. I suspect divis will come back into fashion with a vengeance anyway and this filter will turn out too conservative, but I don't have a better crystal ball at this stage (footnote: I was surprised at how discriminating this filter is)

- BK survival chances: market cap, debt profile etc

Non-oilies shopping list in no particular order: Anglo, BASF, BHP, Lyondellbasell, Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto, SSE, Vodafone, Weyerhaeuser, Bayer, Deutsche Telekom, Dow, Eon, Heidelberg Cement, K&S, Lafarge, National Grid, Saint Gobain, Siemens, Telia, Telefonica, Nutrien, Mosaic

Won't be touching PM miners, plenty of exposure to PM prices through physical holdings already.

[DoINeedOne]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/14/damning-report-green-energy-is-the-worst/

[kibuc]

Wesdome comes up with 3Q production numbers that disappoint for the first time in human memory. Mill maintenance in August resulted in big drop in ore tonnes processed, and grades are also down from absurd 18g/t to 13.8g/t, resulting in 20koz production (compared to 25koz in Q1 and Q2 each). Annual guidance of 90-100koz not threatened at all but it's likely that I won't be beaten for the first time in years, a mid-point more likely.

WDO is obviously a fantastic company, very well run and with great potential in Kiena, but there's a risk that it's all been priced in already, along with specatular beats on production guidances. I wouldn't be surprised if these results brought a short-term correction.

[Democorruptcy]

I cannot believe I'm still buying more of these oily snakes, or is it snake oil? That's it now, I'm definitely not buying any more.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I cannot believe I'm still buying more of these oily snakes, or is it snake oil? 

Nah, fuck this shit, I'm done  

 

[leonardratso]

wonder if i can swap my nortehrn rock shares for BP

[JREWING]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I cannot believe I'm still buying more of these oily snakes, or is it snake oil? That's it now, I'm definitely not buying any more.

At least you're still firing...

I'm stuck in the trenches at 10.25 and 2.34 respectively awaiting to go over the top and take a head shot.

You couldn't make this up. MKT caps destroyed in six months. Wish Looney would keep his gob shut...

[JREWING]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

wonder if i can swap my nortehrn rock shares for BP

I'll swap mine for your NR shares and I'll even throw in a bag of marbles in good faith...

[reformed nice guy]

We are still above March prices for most of my watchlist so I am still waiting for most of my ladders

Hopefully we will see the likes of Angloamerican at 1000, Antofagasta at 600, Drax at 140, Siemens at 90 etc 

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Panda said:

At least you're still firing...

I'm stuck in the trenches at 10.25 and 2.34 respectively awaiting to go over the top and take a head shot.

You couldn't make this up. MKT caps destroyed in six months. Wish Looney would keep his gob shut...

Just checked back, I sold all the RDSB in my ISA and SIPP at £24.17 on 30th Sept last year. The Lord smiled on me that day!

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

We are still above March prices for most of my watchlist so I am still waiting for most of my ladders

Hopefully we will see the likes of Angloamerican at 1000, Antofagasta at 600, Drax at 140, Siemens at 90 etc 

Drax was lower than that in March?

[Chewing Grass]

On 02/10/2020 at 09:49, Chewing Grass said:

Just this minute had a company email through, they are abandoning their lease on the 450 seat satellite office block they were in and moving everyone back into the mothership. The mothership had nearly 1500 seats pre-covid and now has 900 so that's 50% reduction in bum-count through a combination of binning people and normalisation of WFH.

Update, we have been told to remove all our stuff and shred anything else that wont fit in a single locker that is 35x35x45cm in size as the Co prepares for an agile office.

Welcome to the 21st Century and the minimalist working environment.

[leonardratso]

yeah, looney hasnt helped the case at all unless its deliberate for some reason.

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yeah, looney hasnt helped the case at all unless its deliberate for some reason.

 

It can only be talking the price down so his mates can buy in.  Surely?  It's either that or he's out of his fucking mind.

[nirvana]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

Massive spike in the DXY. Wtf is going on?

 

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Update, we have been told to remove all our stuff and shred anything else that wont fit in a single locker that is 35x35x45cm in size as the Co prepares for an agile office.

Welcome to the 21st Century and the minimalist working environment.

Sounds like they want you to destroy the evidence, what have you been up to?