Asking prices down 7% from peak...

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, No One said:

It’s always been a bit of class war fare here in the U.K. when Blair opened the U.K. to the poles, who by the way are good people, I know a fair few, Blair and his champagne socialists under minded the labour of the U.K. tradesman.

At the end of the day the U.K. tradesman can’t go to Poland to work to support his family in the U.K. but the inverse is true . Poland  is cheaper than the U.K. so the price of labour reflects that.

It depends.

Worksi -> Chavski -> Skumsi. Goes for all EEers not just Poles.

 

Ive known a Polish girl since the early 2000s, before FOM .

Shed come over on her parents companies money to trade to agri whatsnot.

Her mam n dad were soviet technical types, so they grew up speaking german and english.

She travels between uk n Poland now and is doing very well.

She was followed in 2004 by the young n skilled, who started taking low end cash service jobs then moved onto better paying jobs.

Most of these have settled in the UK. However, like most familes with kids most  are totally dependent on access to dependent on some in work beneits and free public services i.e. education at 7k/head, which is a *lot* better than in Poland - and the kids grow up.

These were followed by people who are totally benefit dependent bar 16h in some made job be it sklep or big issue, scammign tax credits. claimign for kids back home - even if they have to make one up or borrow from from a relative.

Then these were follwoed by the idiot alchi brother whove turned up sofa surf, sleep in a tent in pakr and drink all day.

Anyone meeting a p9le or any other EE thru work is not really going to a grasp on the pople whove come here in the last 10 years.

Try talking to a atecher, who deal with the scumski. Drippy fucks that most teachers are, the ones mrs spy knows *hate* the EEers know as they only deal with the skumski - DV, kids not turning up, being total demanding arseholes and just not making an effort.

You have to grasp that the mindset in EE ex USSR is very rigid - 10% elite and 90% peasant.

The bottom of that 90% make ou sum look good.

 

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

There used to be HSBC, Lloyds and Natwest in my town employing around 4000 in call/processing centres.

Now there's just Natwest with about 800. 

All branches in tact but skeleton crews.

Same goes for any town/city with more than ~30k people.

 

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Ah ta, not prices up but incomes down.  How will the MMR hit them?  Upon end of mortgage term?

I take the point on MMR with these new general salary levels implying lower house prices.

South's turn?  Was only a matter of time.  They ignored the North (happens to "them") and then.......

What goes around, comes around.

Pries are stuck - existing mortgages in place but family finances are on fumes.

Southern transaction are onthe floor, maybe more so than the North. Rely on HTB to get some activity, but this will blow up o nthe non new market in a few years.

Mass w ell paid southern employment has pretty much evaporated. All down to loss of finsec.

again, school test shows this. mrs spy northern teacher friends are reporting a much lower number of kids on school meals than ones in the south. School meals levels are a good indicator of income in the prime unde 50 house buying demographic.

The high prices are compounding this as they are blocking any economic revial - companies are not paying enough to refresh the skill set.

 

 

[spunko]

11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ive been working on a couple of house refurbishments recently, all UK tradesmen (dont know where the EEs have gone) but the customer does not have the money to pay the rates so the job has ground to a halt, he seems to think everyone works top dog for shit money and no one can be bothered.

What a lot of trades people fail to understand is that the price of doing any work now is about twice what it was 10 years ago, and for no apparent reason (I know there are reasons, but that's not immediately obvious when the quote comes through). We were promised cheap labour and plumbers and carpenters from Warsaw and Bucharest, but we were sold a lie, because the prices have actually rocketed.

I just had a quote for a porch, 12 GRAND. It's just mental.

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, spunko said:

What a lot of trades people fail to understand is that the price of doing any work now is about twice what it was 10 years ago, and for no apparent reason (I know there are reasons, but that's not immediately obvious when the quote comes through). We were promised cheap labour and plumbers and carpenters from Warsaw and Bucharest, but we were sold a lie, because the prices have actually rocketed.

I just had a quote for a porch, 12 GRAND. It's just mental.

One of my pal's a sparky.

He's finding balancing profit vs customer price expectation very difficult. Someone might want a socket put in a wall. By the time channelling, wiring etc factored in it's £200. Then add a plasterer! He's being as conservative as he can be to try and get the work, but he wouldn't pay £200+ for a plug.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

What a lot of trades people fail to understand is that the price of doing any work now is about twice what it was 10 years ago, and for no apparent reason (I know there are reasons, but that's not immediately obvious when the quote comes through). We were promised cheap labour and plumbers and carpenters from Warsaw and Bucharest, but we were sold a lie, because the prices have actually rocketed.

I just had a quote for a porch, 12 GRAND. It's just mental.

Could it be anything to do with minimum wage being brought in? Then when that didn't work because everything goes up in price, so the people getting it then need a living wage, which won't help them either. Throw in a bit of BoE trashing sterling and input costs have gone up, so tradesmen will have to charge more. It's the keep house prices high and raise other costs to meet them syndrome.

[Hardhat]

The wages of customers haven't kept up with the price of materials, insurance, van, etc, that's the main issue. Tradesmen's day rates have barely moved in ten years.

[spunko]

38 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Could it be anything to do with minimum wage being brought in? Then when that didn't work because everything goes up in price, so the people getting it then need a living wage, which won't help them either. Throw in a bit of BoE trashing sterling and input costs have gone up, so tradesmen will have to charge more. It's the keep house prices high and raise other costs to meet them syndrome.

I think its because of, compared to 2010:

• Increased mortgage / house prices so increased monthly payments needed
• Pension contributions for employers now mandatory
• Apprenticeships very rare/expensive
• Raw cost of materials has gone up
• Minimum wage gone up

 

Conversely given stagnation in house prices  (kind of), it's harder for customers to just accept a bill as they'll "make a big profit when we sell innit".

Obviously this no longer applies

[No One]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

What a lot of trades people fail to understand is that the price of doing any work now is about twice what it was 10 years ago, and for no apparent reason (I know there are reasons, but that's not immediately obvious when the quote comes through). We were promised cheap labour and plumbers and carpenters from Warsaw and Bucharest, but we were sold a lie, because the prices have actually rocketed.

I just had a quote for a porch, 12 GRAND. It's just mental.

Price of labour. It seems expensive because most likely like the rest of the nation, like me , our lines of works pay hasn’t kept up with inflation.

 

I should have become a builder rather than an engineer tang

[spunko]

46 minutes ago, No One said:

Price of labour. It seems expensive because most likely like the rest of the nation, like me , our lines of works pay hasn’t kept up with inflation.

 

I should have become a builder rather than an engineer tang

Indeed. If you're going to be charging a lot of money for your trade then you should be prepared to get back to people, a lot of trades act like they're so busy they don't have time to even bother sending over a promised quote. It's as if they don't need the work , so perhaps they are coining it.

[sleepwello'nights]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

One of my pal's a sparky.

He's finding balancing profit vs customer price expectation very difficult. Someone might want a socket put in a wall. By the time channelling, wiring etc factored in it's £200. Then add a plasterer! He's being as conservative as he can be to try and get the work, but he wouldn't pay £200+ for a plug.

I'm still a bit niggled from @Wight Flight's usual pop at me.

If I wanted to have another socket installed I wouldn't pay a tradesmen to do it. I'd do it myself, I still would if I needed one now. No way would I pay a tradesperson £200 for such a simple straightforward task. Most household DIY jobs I taught myself, albeit with some advice from friends who were trades people. Now it would be a matter of watching a few YouTube videos.  Often the first time the job was done it would cost the same as getting it done professionally because you had to buy the tools and you might bugger up some of the materials. Most of these types of job take a bit of learning and practice. 

Same goes for many other jobs. Decorating I do myself rather than pay £130 a day plus. Gardening I do myself, not pay someone to come and do it. Car servicing well I have to bear with the garage rates as I cant be arsed to buy the electronic stuff and figure out how to use it. 

There's a concept I grew up with called value for money. Its deeply ingrained.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, spunko said:

What a lot of trades people fail to understand is that the price of doing any work now is about twice what it was 10 years ago, and for no apparent reason (I know there are reasons, but that's not immediately obvious when the quote comes through). We were promised cheap labour and plumbers and carpenters from Warsaw and Bucharest, but we were sold a lie, because the prices have actually rocketed.

I just had a quote for a porch, 12 GRAND. It's just mental.

Perversity.  All this cheap labour from overseas (and to some extent materials) especially has made good retrenched trades aware quality costs?  Better to say what the eff, ease off, and only work on what pays, leaving the bottom end alone.  Eff the race to the bottom.  Eff the higher taxes, etc.  Trades generally have more choice about such things and the older ones more options.  You want it cheap go ahead.  Not you Spunko though, £12k could sound a bit rich but who knows what you're after.  I've laid many patios, with the bad back to prove it, and cringe at the corners I could cut and games I could play.  But I leave that to others.  People know that.  And I'm more than happy to walk through a quote.  Most then realise the bullets they just dodged. And if they still want it done on the cheap and nasty, go ahead, but not me.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

The wages of customers haven't kept up with the price of materials, insurance, van, etc, that's the main issue. Tradesmen's day rates have barely moved in ten years.

Nailed it.  Costs have gone up but I reckon we still have a long way to go.  The problem now is the temptation to use cheaper dodgy stuff.  You even have to be careful in the merchants as they switch suppliers.  Rubbish electrical stuff, thin copper pipe, rubbish plywood, poor MOT,...

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I'm still a bit niggled from @Wight Flight's usual pop at me.

If I wanted to have another socket installed I wouldn't pay a tradesmen to do it. I'd do it myself, I still would if I needed one now. No way would I pay a tradesperson £200 for such a simple straightforward task. Most household DIY jobs I taught myself, albeit with some advice from friends who were trades people. Now it would be a matter of watching a few YouTube videos.  Often the first time the job was done it would cost the same as getting it done professionally because you had to buy the tools and you might bugger up some of the materials. Most of these types of job take a bit of learning and practice. 

Same goes for many other jobs. Decorating I do myself rather than pay £130 a day plus. Gardening I do myself, not pay someone to come and do it. Car servicing well I have to bear with the garage rates as I cant be arsed to buy the electronic stuff and figure out how to use it. 

There's a concept I grew up with called value for money. Its deeply ingrained.

Careful on the electrics though folk.  Very easy to eff up, even with a "simple" spur (e.g. circuit load, horizontal chase, etc).  But say doing the chasing in advance (before the trade comes around to quote!) and as long as there's enough work to make the visit worthwhile.......  I'm quite surprised how few sparks use a chasing tool (think one said they were shite) and hardly a good/nice use of their time!  A very good idea to prep for plumbers too who never use a spirit level!

PS: Nice if such discussions you're having moved to focus more on why we are all, fine to maybe varying extents, in such a state. There maybe a lot more agreement than there may appear, and it would be one in the eye for the real villians hiding behind such divide and rule.  The emotion is a tough one though and, without collectively looking at the data, everyone has a different micro experience.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

32 minutes ago, Tdog said:

That is merely kite flyers dropping from insane to absurd. Its always gone on.

I must have missed your analysis from the last 10 years. 

 

I'd be interested in having a look at your figures. 

[No One]

2 hours ago, Tdog said:

I gave you my analysis of the UK property market after Help to Buy and Funding for Lending were announced at the end of 2013, in that prices were going through the roof.

You mocked it and called me an estate agent/landlord.

But that link is hardly analysis, just shows kite flyers are dreaming a little too much.

I remember this . 
 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Tdog said:

I gave you my analysis of the UK property market after Help to Buy and Funding for Lending were announced at the end of 2013, in that prices were going through the roof.

You mocked it and called me an estate agent/landlord.

But that link is hardly analysis, just shows kite flyers are dreaming a little too much.

That was the end of 2012. I decided to buy then, quite a few on TOS said it could be a low for a while. I got banned shortly afterwards.

[Don Coglione]

4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I must have missed your analysis from the last 10 years. 

 

I'd be interested in having a look at your figures. 

You stupid cunt.

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, Tdog said:

HTB1 (new builds) and FFL came in first part of 2013 ... but it was HTB2 which was announced around September 2013 to be introduced in Q1 2014 where people could use it to buy 2nd hand houses which is what sent the market absolutely mental.

Yes you are correct, got my dates wrong. TBH since i bought it i havent taken any notice of prices, just see it as 4 walls with a roof that i can eat, sleep and take a dump in.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 hours ago, Tdog said:

I gave you my analysis of the UK property market after Help to Buy and Funding for Lending were announced at the end of 2013, in that prices were going through the roof.

You mocked it and called me an estate agent/landlord.

But that link is hardly analysis, just shows kite flyers are dreaming a little too much.

How come every time I post something there's someone from 10 years ago ready to tell me what I said? That's really odd. 

If you called fls/htb right, well done. You must he a rich man. 

It doesn't change the fact that current asking prices have dropped 7% in 18 months.  Sure, it could be the froth but this isn't the bollax current asking price index, this is where asking prices are currently at. Next quarter will see another drop, will be lucky to he flat this summer imho. 

Anyway, must be great to be right all the time. Enjoy your wealth, you deserve it 

[Green Devil]

6 hours ago, spunko said:

Indeed. If you're going to be charging a lot of money for your trade then you should be prepared to get back to people, a lot of trades act like they're so busy they don't have time to even bother sending over a promised quote. It's as if they don't need the work , so perhaps they are coining it.

 

6 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I'm still a bit niggled from @Wight Flight's usual pop at me.

If I wanted to have another socket installed I wouldn't pay a tradesmen to do it. I'd do it myself, I still would if I needed one now. No way would I pay a tradesperson £200 for such a simple straightforward task. Most household DIY jobs I taught myself, albeit with some advice from friends who were trades people. Now it would be a matter of watching a few YouTube videos.  Often the first time the job was done it would cost the same as getting it done professionally because you had to buy the tools and you might bugger up some of the materials. Most of these types of job take a bit of learning and practice. 

Same goes for many other jobs. Decorating I do myself rather than pay £130 a day plus. Gardening I do myself, not pay someone to come and do it. Car servicing well I have to bear with the garage rates as I cant be arsed to buy the electronic stuff and figure out how to use it. 

There's a concept I grew up with called value for money. Its deeply ingrained.

I think if youre making 200 quid to fit a socket, half a day max, you probably are coining it in. I had a boiler guy come over to fit a boiler part few months back £200 quid.Took about an hour including a cuppa.  I think 200 is the 'I cant be arsed to get out of bed if its less than this rate'.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 minutes ago, Tdog said:

. 

As for this 7%, personally i'm not seeing such drops, slow rises at the areas in the south im looking at, and price rises around Beverley of circa 7%.

Maybe million pound + houses are dropping by this much, but thats a whole different market to what i'm looking at.

I can only tell you what the numbers say. They are unadulterated unadjusted numbers. 

We have some 3 million database entries, how big is your sample size? 

The main reason for property lion is to show up the current asking price index for what it is, total bollocks. 

Take it or leave it, I care not

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, Tdog said:

To be fair CONW is as desperate for a HPC as a man can be, and can pinpoint all whats gone on to reinflate the bubble, so someone with this basic common sense cant be a stupid cunt (i save that for those lines for those who are in many ways content with the status quo). He just sees drops that arent there, or in £10 million market in Kensington which doesnt really matter to us 99.9%

Yet, here you are 10 years on, ztol posting in forums.. And you call the count a stupid ####. 

 

The count is long gone, he gave it up and took his money and ran. You on the other hand ate still here. 

I'm here to report the numbers. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Just remember as it got me kicked off the site, when i was labelled a landlord by you for point out the obvious.
https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/196430-prices-in-hampshire-are-booming/#comments

Yes im right all the time, well apart from the last 15 years where ive been shouting at the moon predicting a crash.

As for HTB/FFL the price rises were overnight, wasnt much of a prediction i made in Feb 2014 as it was right in front of me.

The count never got anyone kicked off HPC. He was not a moderator and had no sway with them. 

They were well aware of the trolling going on tho. 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 minute ago, Tdog said:

I didnt say that at all, re-read what i said.

You're 100% on the HPC side, which makes you tickityboo in my book.

I don't think many can believe what's gone on. I've seen 2 people die waiting for this crash. It's insane 

This stopped being about house prices in 2014. It became about fairness, democracy, decency etc etc etc. 

I'd wager the EU vote was wittingly or unwittingly linked to the bankers and their mps chums actions 

As I said, believe the figures or not. It matters not. 

But please stop taking this thread off topic. If anyone has any queries about the figures then I'd be happy to answer. 

 

 

[Lavalas]

Do you have any regional splits for the figures, or a London and a Not-London split? I would love -7% to be true but just not seeing it in my area of interest. But then it is a very popular area in the north so probably not reflective.