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Coronavirus Economic Impact Thread

No One

By No One
in Property Prices & Economy

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No One

No One

Posted
Posted

I've decided to open a thread to post info on what is happening economically because of the virus.

Manufacturing is definitely suffering.

jcb corona.png

  • Replies 249
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dgul

dgul

Posted
Posted

I expect that other companies are also having problem with supply chain, but aren't talking (yet).

It was fortuitous that this started in-earnest in CNY hols as many companies built up stock to 'get over the hump'.

Shits McGee

Shits McGee

Posted
Posted

The Fed will pump as much money as needed into the stock markets to keep them up

dgul

dgul

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Loki said:

The Fed will pump as much money as needed into the stock markets to keep them up

The Fed is starting to reduce their repo injections.  They'll be reducing by $5bln a week until zero (April, I guess).

You might imagine that this'll result in a bit of a dip in stock prices, and they'll turn the spigots back on as soon as they realise it is happening.

Shits McGee

Shits McGee

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dgul said:

The Fed is starting to reduce their repo injections.  They'll be reducing by $5bln a week until zero (April, I guess).

You might imagine that this'll result in a bit of a dip in stock prices, and they'll turn the spigots back on as soon as they realise it is happening.

What will 'not QE' 2 be I wonder?

dgul

dgul

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Loki said:

What will 'not QE' 2 be I wonder?

It'll start off with more repo.

The main injection will come down the line, and will just be naked Keynesianism.

[I heard a quote earlier today from some government guy -- 'what we need is some Keynesianism so that Monetarism can work again'.  I found that very interesting.  Probably why Javid left.]

Shits McGee

Shits McGee

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dgul said:

It'll start off with more repo.

The main injection will come down the line, and will just be naked Keynesianism.

[I heard a quote earlier today from some government guy -- 'what we need is some Keynesianism so that Monetarism can work again'.  I found that very interesting.  Probably why Javid left.]

I mean...he's not technically wrong...

Monetarism is doing exactly what it was intended to do, destroy the middle class.

dgul

dgul

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Loki said:

I mean...he's not technically wrong...

Quite.

IMO they're getting us ready for it.  Something along the lines of 'new paradigm'.

And then we get a massive spike in inflation.

sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, dgul said:

I expect that other companies are also having problem with supply chain, but aren't talking (yet).

It was fortuitous that this started in-earnest in CNY hols as many companies built up stock to 'get over the hump'.

Mrs P jsut reported that her co has had a supplier from Chinois stop.She left work before anyone tasked her with finding a replacement,Sensible girl.

10 minutes ago, dgul said:

The Fed is starting to reduce their repo injections.  They'll be reducing by $5bln a week until zero (April, I guess).

You might imagine that this'll result in a bit of a dip in stock prices, and they'll turn the spigots back on as soon as they realise it is happening.

I think the CCB will come out all printers running on the other side.Which will possibly force the fed to print some too.

 

1 hour ago, No One said:

I've decided to open a thread to post info on wimageproxy.php?img=&key=6313d54163a54dd1hat is happening economically because of the virus.

Manufacturing is definitely suffering.

 

Super idea

Wight Flight

Wight Flight

Posted
Posted

I am keeping my fingers crossed that my main competitors, who manufacture in China, will come a cropper.

This could be good news for UK manufacturing, even if only in the short term.

 

RickyBacker

RickyBacker

Posted
Posted

My wife's family have a factory in China and they are definitely feeling the impact. She was showing me an excel file yesterday and said ... if it's colored yellow then we can't meet the order due to us not being able to get the materials. There was a LOT of yellow! 
Father in law is quick thinking and saw the problems really quick... within a week he had sourced material for making face masks and has converted some of the machines to manufacture face masks instead!

BoSon

BoSon

Posted
Posted

It threatens to be the ill economic wind that brings the whole house of cards down.

The central banks can print all they like. Unless they have 3d printers it won't avoid the inevitable. :P

They will start blaming this virus for baked-in failure like they were blaming brexit. xD

Time to see who is wearing speedos when the tide goes out.

Chewing Grass

Chewing Grass

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, dgul said:

GM now reporting impact on supply chain.

This will quickly show which fine and upstanding, brand and heritage conscious manufacturers have the most parts/jobs outsourced to the cheapest possible place of manufacture.

No One

No One

Posted
  • Author
Posted
21 hours ago, RickyBacker said:

My wife's family have a factory in China and they are definitely feeling the impact. She was showing me an excel file yesterday and said ... if it's colored yellow then we can't meet the order due to us not being able to get the materials. There was a LOT of yellow! 
Father in law is quick thinking and saw the problems really quick... within a week he had sourced material for making face masks and has converted some of the machines to manufacture face masks instead!

Make sure they are N95s or FFP3 compliment 

Bear Hug

Bear Hug

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

This will quickly show which fine and upstanding, brand and heritage conscious manufacturers have the most parts/jobs outsourced to the cheapest possible place of manufacture.

All of them?! 

RickyBacker

RickyBacker

Posted
Posted

Further to my last comment... my wife is a member of a 'messaging group' in which the CEO's of the various companies in Dongguan share information, most recently this information is regarding the impacts of the virus. Their family business factory is apparently one of the best (top 3) in terms of getting personnel back into the factory and working. They have 50% of the workforce back. The Foxxcon factory in Dongguan still only have 20% of the workforce back.

RickyBacker

RickyBacker

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, No One said:

Make sure they are N95s or FFP3 compliment 

Just heard that they're not selling them... they're making them to be used 'in-house' ... no idea if they are FFP3 compliant. They do check temperatures daily and also have a 14 day quarantine set up for workers returning to the factory though. It's being taken very seriously both in China and here where I live in Taiwan. 

wherebee

wherebee

Posted
Posted
On 14/02/2020 at 07:34, dgul said:

I expect that other companies are also having problem with supply chain, but aren't talking (yet).

It was fortuitous that this started in-earnest in CNY hols as many companies built up stock to 'get over the hump'.

and due to brexit many UK/EU companies had stocked up...

dgul

dgul

Posted
Posted

Apple stating won't meet quarterly guidance due to nCoV.

[futures open in an hour...]

Shits McGee

Shits McGee

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, dgul said:

Apple stating won't meet quarterly guidance due to nCoV.

[futures open in an hour...]

Bullish. BTFD!xD

Bear Hug

Bear Hug

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, dgul said:

Apple stating won't meet quarterly guidance due to nCoV.

[futures open in an hour...]

Finally it's getting interesting.

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