Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[spunko]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Are those proposals actually unreasonable?

If you simply can't pay your mortgage then you lose your house but this isn't about that; it is about banks examining individual circumstances to see if there are short term problems that can be overcome.

I don't know the rules but I would say that it is unreasonable for a bank to sieze and auction off your house if you miss a single mortgage payment.

Or if, say, the mortgage value was 40% of the house that they could again sieze it if, for instance, six months' payments were missed when these could easily be rolled up into the mortgage balance without jeopardising the bank's security.

I want a crash as much as anyone but I don't want to see people's lives ruined when there is a short term issue that can easily be overcome.

He isn't suggesting either a bail out or the government guaranteeing mortgages and so being on the hook for them; to both of which I would be strongly opposed.

 

The first one about affordability is unreasonable in that they'll make it so that any remortgage can go through willy nilly. If you can't afford it, doesn't matter, we don't even need to massage the figures now... Outrageous.

If you cannot afford your home  when at remortgage time then you can always sell it. The alternative isn't  homelessness. 

[spunko]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

12% inflation

6% mortgage rates

4% savings rates

2.25% interest rates

Interest rates should be above inflation, so 15%

Savings rates should be 16%

Mortgage rates should be 18%

HOW MUCH HELP DO THESE PEOPLE WANT ?

yes, it's unreasonable to rob savers and help people who willingly took on debt,

Will Mr Hunt be getting £3.8M worth of help ?

4% savings rates????? Do you mean 0.4%?

[MightyTharg]

We can go ahead and cancel this thread now. We have a buy-to-let chancellor whose company has borrowed millions. He’s increased taxes to shovel money at the banks and borrowers and kept the stamp duty cut to benefit his property empire.

That’s all folks.

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, MightyTharg said:

We can go ahead and cancel this thread now. We have a buy-to-let chancellor whose company has borrowed millions. He’s increased taxes to shovel money at the banks and borrowers and kept the stamp duty cut to benefit his property empire.

That’s all folks.

He also said rates were going up globally and would likely be for the long term etc. He wouldn't commit to raising benefits by CPI, even under heavy and prolonged probing, just giving platitudes about hoping to instead.

I really think today was purely for markets, and cards are being kept close to the chest. Therefore I am keeping an open (if sceptical) mind.

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

4% savings rates????? Do you mean 0.4%?

You can get nearer 5

[spunko]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

You can get nearer 5

As my northern equivalent would say gee orr. 

Best I can find is 2.5% and that's with ludicrous lock in etc.

Where are you seeing 4% ?

[ILikeCake]

24 minutes ago, spunko said:

As my northern equivalent would say gee orr. 

Best I can find is 2.5% and that's with ludicrous lock in etc.

Where are you seeing 4% ?

https://moneyfacts.co.uk/savings-accounts/

2.75 easy access, up to 5% fixed.

Edited October 17, 2022 by ILikeCake

[Bobthebuilder]

29 minutes ago, spunko said:

As my northern equivalent would say gee orr. 

Best I can find is 2.5% and that's with ludicrous lock in etc.

Where are you seeing 4% ?

Much better rates outside of an ISA at present.

[GTM]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09349585

 

Might be his wife's property company.

30% drop in asset values and they are toast, assuming the accounts present a fair valuation of the assets. 

[spunko]

8 minutes ago, GTM said:

30% drop in asset values and they are toast, assuming the accounts present a fair valuation of the assets. 

Apart from the £90m in cash he got for selling MSE ... 

[GTM]

28 minutes ago, spunko said:

Apart from the £90m in cash he got for selling MSE ... 

Apologies, their property company will be toast on a 30% drop as the borrowings will exceed the asset values. 

I suppose they will probably be OK, though I suspect there are many who are supposedly wealthy but who have borrowed and spent and will be in trouble were asset prices to drop. 

[HousePriceMania]

So Mr Nicey Nicey Martin Lewis, it turns out his wifes property company has £18M in assets and £12.9M in debt

 

 

And today he demands help for people so house prices dont implode.

What a proper cunt.

[Ash4781b]

Does he post here? From memory I think he posted at the other place.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

Apart from the £90m in cash he got for selling MSE ... 

 

Comical. I wonder what rich vested interest bought him ?

[HousePriceMania]

48 minutes ago, GTM said:

Apologies, their property company will be toast on a 30% drop as the borrowings will exceed the asset values. 

I suppose they will probably be OK, though I suspect there are many who are supposedly wealthy but who have borrowed and spent and will be in trouble were asset prices to drop. 

Interest rates should be above inflation, mortgage rates should be around 15-18%

He's already getting a bail out and wants more.

[Plan-b]

11 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Does he post here? From memory I think he posted at the other place.

Doubt you'll see him post here, people here speak their mind with the language to match.

Just as it should be.

[Calcutta]

The system is rigged in favour of the establishment. Of course it is. We know that.

The question is, where do we put our money to profit from the system and how do we ensure we're not left holding the bag when the end results of the experiment come to pass.

Where does all the printing end? Do we end up with $1 = £2? 

£5ltr diesel?

I mean really it's hard to get my head around what system collapse is going to mean. These people are determined to print and spend until something breaks. The key here is working out exactly what is going to break and how to avoid being broken with it.

[HousePriceMania]

Not even hiding it now.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

As my northern equivalent would say gee orr. 

Best I can find is 2.5% and that's with ludicrous lock in etc.

Where are you seeing 4% ?

There are some 4%'s.....

Nationwide have a 3yr Fixed Bond 4.75% interest added to the bond so £73,950 max to stay within FSCS

Tesco a 4.57% 5yr Bond interest can be paid to another account

Furness BS have a 5yr 4.2% ISA, transfers in allowed

Newcastle BS have a 5yr 4% ISA, transfers in allowed.

Virgin 3yr 4.35% ISA, transfer in allowed.

Some rates are now being pulled because gilt yields and interest swap rates plunged today  https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-11324377/Santander-pulling-best-buy-easy-access-savings-account-tonight.html?

Edit to add the Atombank 5% 5yr Fixed is still there but the SmartSave 5.01 got pulled.

Edited October 17, 2022 by Democorruptcy

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not even hiding it now.

He has to say that though. The plebs have been told Kwasi fucked their mortgage up, single-handed and in the blink of an eye. Now Hunt desperately needs at least a small pullback to hold up as proof he is fixing it.

I am not convinced the doom and gloom about the emerging new government is really warranted. Of course, I own GJGB so it is easy for me to say that.

[No One]

3 hours ago, MightyTharg said:

We can go ahead and cancel this thread now. We have a buy-to-let chancellor whose company has borrowed millions. He’s increased taxes to shovel money at the banks and borrowers and kept the stamp duty cut to benefit his property empire.

That’s all folks.

It was clear to me since, 2016/7 that the government would never allow the housing market to deflate. Too many interests to allow that to happen.

The only thing I believe, and continue to believe; can take the housing market down is an outside event, like a black swan event or a series of events. Covid, Inflation, Ukraine/Fuel Shocks.

If we get persistent inflation shocks something will have to brake somewhere. The DB pension LDI crisis was the first warning sign.

As much as they like the government and BoE are in a very weak position and can't save everyone. Pension/Housing Market/Benies/Heating/Workers/NHS/Pound

They have to pick 3 or 4 and something has to be sacrificed. 
Truss Kwarteng chose to Sub Everyone's Heating Bills and to lower Taxes.

Jeremy Cunt scrapped that and chose to save Pensions, Housing and Bennies.

Labour is making noises about Benies, NHS, Housing.

 Dosboders would choose; The Pound and Low Taxes; whilst throwing Housing and Bennies into a volcano.

 

 

 

[JohnnyB]

6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Are those proposals actually unreasonable?

If you simply can't pay your mortgage then you lose your house but this isn't about that; it is about banks examining individual circumstances to see if there are short term problems that can be overcome.

I don't know the rules but I would say that it is unreasonable for a bank to sieze and auction off your house if you miss a single mortgage payment.

Or if, say, the mortgage value was 40% of the house that they could again sieze it if, for instance, six months' payments were missed when these could easily be rolled up into the mortgage balance without jeopardising the bank's security.

I want a crash as much as anyone but I don't want to see people's lives ruined when there is a short term issue that can easily be overcome.

He isn't suggesting either a bail out or the government guaranteeing mortgages and so being on the hook for them; to both of which I would be strongly opposed.

 

I don't think Generation Rent has much sympathy for mortgage holders who cry helplessness at the first breeze of trouble. Landlords can kick you out with only 2 month's notice because they got out of bed the wrong way, or deciding to add £300 to the rent is reality for a lot of people sadly. I think Mr Lewis might have read the room wrong (or been clouded by his own vested interests).

People (and banks) should have been operating under the assumption that rates would revert to the norm at some point. If they are maxxed out at <1% rates, nothing is going to save them. His proposals might make sense if we were coming out of a recession, rates were declining and for some it was a case of just holding on a bit longer. But currently I would say it is traveling the other direction, and it's better to wash out those unable to honour their debts.

 

[sarahbell]

They're desperate to keep the mortgage-go-round spinning

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63285246

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, JohnnyB said:

I don't think Generation Rent has much sympathy for mortgage holders who cry helplessness at the first breeze of trouble. Landlords can kick you out with only 2 month's notice because they got out of bed the wrong way, or deciding to add £300 to the rent is reality for a lot of people sadly. I think Mr Lewis might have read the room wrong (or been clouded by his own vested interests).

People (and banks) should have been operating under the assumption that rates would revert to the norm at some point. If they are maxxed out at <1% rates, nothing is going to save them. His proposals might make sense if we were coming out of a recession, rates were declining and for some it was a case of just holding on a bit longer. But currently I would say it is traveling the other direction, and it's better to wash out those unable to honour their debts.

 

Damn right. Its not in the hands of the UK Gov and the markets do not have to buy UK debt . They absolutely must make the finances of the country attractive to investors. Refusing to face fiscal responsibility in the problem areas of Housing, Bennies, Pensions as perceived by investors and rates will go up anyway. As they did recently.

The markets will decide. 

[Funn3r]

42 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not even hiding it now.

 

 

Wonder what he means by that?

Either exactly what he says they will scheme and fight to keep mortgage rates down.

Or; when BOE raises mortgages rates the government can have clean hands.