Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

I know. It wasn't directed at you.

I know, I was trying be funny 🤣🤣🤣

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

I know, I was trying be funny 🤣🤣🤣

Ah. Sorry.

Given you a LOL if that helps.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

My partner and I.

Fucking retard.

Since when did Labour become the party of economically illiterate middle class BOMAD beneficiaries?

[AWW]

Compo face because they can't borrow half a million quid at negative rates. Mental.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, AWW said:

Since when did Labour become the party of economically illiterate middle class BOMAD beneficiaries?

Exactly 

If its trying to gain tory voters then they're going about it the wrong way, pissing off the poor, elderly and renters . If it's about propping up their own investments then this is the tory party in drag. 

Either way, tory end Labour parties are dead to me 

[JohnnyB]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Latest from Labour on the subject....this change is a finance manager it seem.  Ginger Tosser

 

I still dont concede that the establishment are willing to collapse everything so they can keep their house prices up.

Nothing coming from Labour/Tory/BoE/Westminster/HOCs/MSM says they are fighting inflation and willing to let house prices suffer.

Maybe they cant stop it but it looks like they want to try

My reply to the RedTories

Ginger tosser isn't wise enough to realise that 1% rates and 30 year joint income 4.5x mortgages had fucked him over even if he would have been able to buy.

Young people should be cheering this chaos on.

[JohnnyB]

2 hours ago, Boon said:

 

Well to me at least a short term way is degradation of standards of living. That simply continues the trend though.

Ie. a 1-bed flat used to be for 1 person, now you have 2 people living in it.

Will it be more common that 2-beds have 3 or 4 people living in it? Two couples presumably doesn't mean HMO.

It's gonna be a very slow grind downwards. But that's like everything. The public don't want to accept a decrease in the standards of living, so they will be whinging on TV saying how unfair everything is. But eventually the hard reality is that we will have to.

Much the same for the landlords as rent is ultimately driven by what people can afford, not what their mortgage costs. But it may take some time for that reality to bite.

 

This is something I think will be interesting with the rental market. Landlords may declare they were "forced" to raise rents as their costs increased, but with real earnings falling back with 10% inflation as well, tenants will hit a limit and as you said compress together in HMOs more or sharing houses. Will that mean there are going to be a number of landlords who end up like in musical chairs being the one left standing and facing killer voids?

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, Ina said:

New instructions have collapsed at my firm in new build and residential conveyancing.  Lots of work in the pipeline from earlier in the year so there is a time lag before the shit hits the fan.  I’ll keep you informed but in 6 months time I reckon it will be carnage.  In probate I have a few properties due to complete shortly on which I am keeping a close eye on.

I genuinely think that when the collapse comes which it undoubtedly will, it will be the ethnics that will be hit very hard as recent arrivals have known nothing but boom and zero interest rates.  Lots have highly leveraged portfolios.

In the HTB firestacks, a large number of featured buyers were EU, with Italians grossly over represented.

London, so 300k equity loan thats hitting the fan.

90s crash was Brits, who had nowhere to go.

How are the ethics n whatnots going to react?

The risk of Pawel  n Sanjay fucking off is going to be v high.

Banks should not be lending to non nationals. Too risky.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by spygirl

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Latest from Labour on the subject....this change is a finance manager it seem.  Ginger Tosser

 

I still dont concede that the establishment are willing to collapse everything so they can keep their house prices up.

Nothing coming from Labour/Tory/BoE/Westminster/HOCs/MSM says they are fighting inflation and willing to let house prices suffer.

Maybe they cant stop it but it looks like they want to try

My reply to the RedTories

Malcom X is looking pasty...

Finance manager... not grasping IR change ....

[spygirl]

43 minutes ago, JohnnyB said:

This is something I think will be interesting with the rental market. Landlords may declare they were "forced" to raise rents as their costs increased, but with real earnings falling back with 10% inflation as well, tenants will hit a limit and as you said compress together in HMOs more or sharing houses. Will that mean there are going to be a number of landlords who end up like in musical chairs being the one left standing and facing killer voids?

90% of rents dont go higher than LHA.

 

[No One]

[Phil]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

Compo face because they can't borrow half a million quid at negative rates. Mental.

I hope her first child is black.

[King Penda]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Latest from Labour on the subject....this change is a finance manager it seem.  Ginger Tosser

 

I still dont concede that the establishment are willing to collapse everything so they can keep their house prices up.

Nothing coming from Labour/Tory/BoE/Westminster/HOCs/MSM says they are fighting inflation and willing to let house prices suffer.

Maybe they cant stop it but it looks like they want to try

My reply to the RedTories

I’m still going for 6/7% by Easter 

[spygirl]

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

US but FED is driving the worlds IR...

 

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

Lets assume the BoE is forced to follow, with the usual 1%-2% spread above FED/$

Mortgages have a ~3% spread on BoE base

So .... ~11%-13% SVR???

Hopes of Fed pivot fade in face of alarming inflation figures

Economists say US central bank unlikely to soften aggressive tightening programme any time soon

https://www.ft.com/content/df775130-08e7-4381-9aa2-f1256fda381e

The alarming inflation numbers are with a rapidly appreciating currency.

Imagine what the inflation numbers are going to be for the EURO n £.

In the main, this is 20 odd years of outsourcing rolling back, just when the halfthe over 45 have quit working due to various gov subs n benefits.

 

 

[CVG]

19 hours ago, spunko said:

PaTMa have the option to search by biggest price drops.

For example, using a demo postcode:

https://app.patma.co.uk/prospector/listing/search/?postcode=TN1+1AQ&distance=2&min_bedrooms=&max_bedrooms=&min_price=&max_price=&property_type=&time_on_market=&price_reduced=&relisted=&min_estimated_rent=&max_estimated_rent=&estimated_yield=&sort=price_change_from_original_amount&order=low

You need to register for a free account to view all of the results, but worth it.

 

I like it. Thanks

[HousePriceMania]

Now I know why the London property owning Labour MPs are squealing like piggies

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

Malcom X is looking pasty...

Finance manager... not grasping IR change ....

Heres Malcom X means fuck off - 

 

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2022/10/06/starmer-hoping-labours-fortunes-are-rising-like-arsenals-during-wolverhampton-visit/

 

Id not lend 50p to anyone who wears that suit.

 

So ... he works for financial company that offers, err, mortgages ...

 

https://a2ofs.co.uk/staff/zach-oakley/

I have been at Acorn to Oaks since 2019. I work as the Accounts Manager at Acorn to Oaks, managing clients monies and making sure insurers get paid promptly. I am currently studying to become a Chartered Accountant.

 

[HousePriceMania]

Check this out...

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[haroldshand]

24 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Now I know why the London property owning Labour MPs are squealing like piggies

 

You can bet that UK renters are sleeping far better than many others in the UK these days

[Boon]

28 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Check this out...

 

Unsurprising though, must be plenty of London flats like that. And the BTL game here is all about speculation on higher prices later, it certainly isn;'t about yield.

Would speculate this might be a 2018, 5 year mortgage who didn't remortgage.

Conditions in 2018: low mortgage, low power costs, increasing property prices = cost of holding asset is low if you could afford the cash to pay mortgage. 

Conditions in 2023: high mortgage, high power costs, decreasing property prices = why bother holding any more.

It looks like this cost £320k in 2018 so given no rental income achieved in that time I bet they wished they hadn't bought it.

[kibuc]

41 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

You can bet that UK renters are sleeping far better than many others in the UK these days

Depends on your tenancy agreement. I like it where I've been living since 2019 so extended in August for another 3-year fixed term with no annual rent adjustments or break clauses in a hope that it secures the roof over our heads but I'm still sweating sometimes that we could be kicked out if the landlord dies or claims force majeure.

Edited October 14, 2022 by kibuc

[spygirl]

54 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Check this out...

 

Never lived by current owner ..

Means - 

Trashed by tenant.

left empty, so mouldy.

[Herby]

One implication of the current economic situation that I have not seen mentioned...

So the increase in mortgage rates is one thing.. 

For an "older" buyer, I was planning on buying a place a mortgage of (e.g. £200,000). 

Now the monthly on that at 5-year fixed rate has rocketed. 

BUT

My plan was to get a mortgage like that, and in a few years (Less than 7) pay off a chunk with the 25% pension available at age 55. 

However... 

Pension funds have been hit (Some by 10-15%) thus that 25% (of, say, £400,000 pot) would have been £100,000, but the £400,000 is now 15% down, so now £340,000. 

Leaving a bulk payment of £85,000 - reducing the comfortable amount to bid on a "home" reduced by a further £15,000.

Hope that makes sense?

Doubt many people think about this.....

[tlc]

On 12/10/2022 at 11:30, tlc said:

My deceased fathers house went on the market last week.

It should have been on over the summer but my sibs were fannying about.

I wanted it on at 100K below the current asking price but thanks to an over enthusiastic estate agent and greedy boomer sibs I was overruled. 

Estate agent now baffled by the lack of interest. 

So we've had one viewing.

The woman asked the estate agent would we accept the asking price and estate agent said no. 

Speechless. 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

It looks like this cost £320k in 2018

They seem set on needing £335k, so presumably the £15k difference is what they need to recover their misc purchase and holding costs. They might only have had ~£50k of their own money in the deal (10% deposit plus the above etc), so even if they get out at the 2018 price that would be a 30% cash loss.

Just imagine holding housing at a negative carry during the wildest bubble ever known, and ending up down 30% on your capital