Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

30 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Well as I say I'm still not calling a crash. Could just be a blip. But I think their house in particular is a difficult one to sell, and even if it did go back to £240K that's only back to what prices were mid-pandemic, and the house has still gone up by almost £10K a year every year they've owned it.

I have a very clear memory of 2006 with my Dad angrily telling me that house prices would never fall, and there'd be "blood on the streets" if they did. His house was worth £320K at that point and he sold it about 6 years later for just under £170K.

He said today that prices were cooling in mainland UK, but that wouldn't happen in Northern Ireland.

He may be wrong or he may be right, but didn't explain his reasoning.

Did they not live through the 2008-2012 collapse in NI then ?

[AWW]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

For some reason osteo also said 'they' reckon it could hit rock bottom by end of october - no idea who they are or what 'it' is but sounded too vague to bother probing.

Not an expert in housing, but I can read a chart. It seems that once it starts falling, it takes years to find a bottom. The only reason it bounced in 2009 was interest rates being slashed by 90%.

[OurDayWillCome]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I joke with my old man about him spending his days watching the bloody flight radar, or tracking rainfall as it crosses the county.

Life in the fast lane.

That’s me and I’m no where near retirement age. Getting some practice in :-)

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

Well as I say I'm still not calling a crash. Could just be a blip. But I think their house in particular is a difficult one to sell, and even if it did go back to £240K that's only back to what prices were mid-pandemic, and the house has still gone up by almost £10K a year every year they've owned it.

I have a very clear memory of 2006 with my Dad angrily telling me that house prices would never fall, and there'd be "blood on the streets" if they did. His house was worth £320K at that point and he sold it about 6 years later for just under £170K.

He said today that prices were cooling in mainland UK, but that wouldn't happen in Northern Ireland.

He may be wrong or he may be right, but didn't explain his reasoning.

People have such short memories, the 2006-2013 period and the falls that occurred is ignored by many, only times I've been happy to buy or move up the market were 1996 and 2013.

[With a crooked smile]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

We had an argument recently where they told me I was always talking about prices crashing.  

You do this in RL too? Fucking hell.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

Not an expert in housing, but I can read a chart. It seems that once it starts falling, it takes years to find a bottom. The only reason it bounced in 2009 was interest rates being slashed by 90%.

And the roll out of LHA. 

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, leonardratso said:

ah its ok, i see it now, so wrap in spoiler /spoller with square beackets around them. Cool.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

SPOILT

 

 

I psot a csreenshot to avoid messing with the people reading on a phone but bury the contents so I can dig em up next week.

8 hours ago, Boon said:

Think a lot of people in that position, or will be.

Also I think people would rather live unhappily/lose money every month before reducing price to a proceedable price in the market. For some properties like the new build flats the reduction in what people thought it was worth compared to the current value is vast.

The mindset similar to those who fall in love with a share on the way up, but when it declines hold on to it even though they know it is overvalued in the hope that it recovers.

Still early doors but haven't seen much in the way of panic pricing and I think there will be stupid stories next year of people squeezed on their mortgage borrowing more money to pay it every month because they can't face that it is worth less.

Thing is that in tut basment there are a lot of trader types ie people who take wins/losses regularly and understand its part of life in the market.

For joe public housing is 'win only' or at least they think it is.Means market mood will tun like a supertnaker rather than a yacht

If a downturn gets going then it'll take some of them a long time to adjust to the change in momentum. but when it does it'll be sharp and nasty and I suspect many of the people who really need to sell will be too late to get through the exit in time.

5 hours ago, dnb24 said:

1700, reductions are 30% of daily listings.

What area is this Dnb?

[dnb24]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

What area is this Dnb?

Coventry mate-15mile radius

[Loki]

 

[HousePriceMania]

Barratt results out today, anyone know how they went ?

 

[Boon]

Ha, bad times for Barratt and the rest.

Private reservations down to 181 from 288! This period has also seen bad conditions only in the last few months, and HTB also ends soon, so next period has to be lower.

Build cost inflation of 9-10% - can they raise their prices to match that? Obviously no.

Basically their share price is betting on government intervention.

[HousePriceMania]

30 mins later

 

25 minutes ago, Boon said:

Ha, bad times for Barratt and the rest.

Private reservations down to 181 from 288! This period has also seen bad conditions only in the last few months, and HTB also ends soon, so next period has to be lower.

Build cost inflation of 9-10% - can they raise their prices to match that? Obviously no.

Basically their share price is betting on government intervention.

Their share price was based on government intervention!!!

[Herby]

Wow, this is either a very thick person or a very clever troll.. a lot of interesting sentiment as to where are affordability and prices are going in the replies..

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4653402-to-think-all-this-nonsense-about-house-prices-being-too-high-is-just-that-nonsense

"to think all this nonsense about house prices being too high is just that - Nonsense! 467

RazahFluffy · Today 00:32

DH and I have long been in the property game. We actually met whilst working as Estate Agents back in 1999!

I've seen a lot in my time as an agent - 2008/2009 were a bit of a blip, but overall, there's one thing I've always had faith in, and that's bricks and mortar and that prices always go up. They aren't making more land after all 😁

As well as working in property, we've got a few of our own. We started off as accidental landlords after we got together and kept both our homes to rent out when we decided it was time to move in together and find a place of our own. Over time we've added a few more to the portfolio.

We are lovely landlords. We let our tenants have our houses as their homes, and we like to do little things like send them Christmas hampers, and know their birthdays so we can send a card and usually a Pizza Express voucher.

Anyway, there's a lot of rubbish being written recently about interest rates and the economy affecting the market. Nothing could be further from the truth where we are!

It's still buoyant and the buyers registering at the agency are no different to usual - excited to either 'get on the ladder' or move to their next step towards their eventual forever home😊Vendors are still confident. They agree with us that houses are actually a bit too cheap, all things considered because inflation is quite high.

The one thing I'd have to say is if you can't afford a mortgage at the moment - think about your expectations. You might have thought previously that you could afford a 4 bed, but if you can only get a 3 bed for now is that really so bad? First time buyers especially I feel need to be realistic!

Property always goes up and it's no different now. We're really confident and having seen it all in this game, we really think it's time to believe in the market💪"

[Axeman123]

21 minutes ago, Herby said:

Wow, this is either a very thick person or a very clever troll..

I lean toward the latter, although there is just the right note of desperation laced through for it to be part of a real nervous breakdown

Comments are having none of it, the market has turned!

[Boon]

Haha, the clue is they are estate agents. 

Normally they would be ambivalent to the market, after all a falling market brings more sales, but it sounds like they have a big vested interest now, leveraging up using existing equity.

Secretly they must be terrified. 

[tlc]

22 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Comments are having none of it, the market has turned!

My deceased fathers house went on the market last week.

It should have been on over the summer but my sibs were fannying about.

I wanted it on at 100K below the current asking price but thanks to an over enthusiastic estate agent and greedy boomer sibs I was overruled. 

Estate agent now baffled by the lack of interest. 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, tlc said:

My deceased fathers house went on the market last week.

I have had similar, siblings aren't easy at the best of times.

Best wishes.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, tlc said:

My deceased fathers house went on the market last week.

It should have been on over the summer but my sibs were fannying about.

I wanted it on at 100K below the current asking price but thanks to an over enthusiastic estate agent and greedy boomer sibs I was overruled. 

Estate agent now baffled by the lack of interest. 

See my post futher back.  Offered on an unrealistically priced probate.  1 child blocking the sale.

The way things are now we would not buy at the price we offered.

P.S. Sorry for your lose, losing your parents is shit without having to deal with this sort of crap too. As I say to my wife, no amount of money/inheritance will make you feel better about losing them.

Edited October 12, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Herby said:

You might have thought previously that you could afford a 4 bed, but if you can only get a 3 bed for now is that really so bad? First time buyers especially I feel need to be realistic!

I wonder what they would think if when they went to buy other things they were told they had to pay full price for 3/4 of what they wanted? A car door missing, coming home after 10 days of a fortnight's holiday, a big empty space at the top of their bottle of wine, a shirt with a long and a short sleeve, etc.

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I wonder what they would think if when they went to buy other things they were told they had to pay full price for 3/4 of what they wanted? A car door missing, coming home after 10 days of a fortnight's holiday, a big empty space at the top of their bottle of wine, a shirt with a long and a short sleeve, etc.

When you are buying a 3 bed house off a person with the same job/salary/social standing that they paid 1/4 of the price for it's safe to say it's a bubble and you tell the greedy **** to **** off.

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I wonder what they would think if when they went to buy other things they were told they had to pay full price for 3/4 of what they wanted? A car door missing, coming home after 10 days of a fortnight's holiday, a big empty space at the top of their bottle of wine, a shirt with a long and a short sleeve, etc.

The 'might have to buy a 4 bed instead of a 3 bed, first time buyers need to be realistic' thing is evidence that this is a troll post I think. FTBs are not buying 3 bed houses instead of 4 bed houses, they are buying 1-2 bed flats instead of 2-3 bed houses which is a huge difference in amenity.

[spygirl]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11306979/Bank-England-issues-warning-mortgage-repayments.html

• Two-year fix rate is now average 6.43% and five-year fix is now average 6.29%

[JoeDavola]

44 minutes ago, spygirl said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11306979/Bank-England-issues-warning-mortgage-repayments.html

• Two-year fix rate is now average 6.43% and five-year fix is now average 6.29%

6.43% means you'll have paid double the mortgage amount over 25 years:

and over 35 years....

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, mcdongle said:

House prices in NZ......  Coming to the UK??

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117981/house-prices-continuing-slide-reinzs-house-price-index-now-down-126-its-peak-173

 

House prices continuing to slide with the REINZ's House Price Index now down 12.6% from its peak, -17.3% in Auckland, -19.8% in Wellington

 

 

cross psot from deflation thread from @mcdongle

House prices in NZ......  Coming to the UK??

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117981/house-prices-continuing-slide-reinzs-house-price-index-now-down-126-its-peak-173

 

House prices continuing to slide with the REINZ's House Price Index now down 12.6% from its peak, -17.3% in Auckland, -19.8% in Wellington