Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[haroldshand]

44 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

It looks like a one-off burst of inflation which has mostly already happened. You have lost 10% of the value of your cash savings because of the step change in energy costs and knock-on increases but why would you then have another 10% inflation over the next twelve months.

There may be some residual inflation from companies rebuilding their profit margins but energy costs should plateau and begin to decline as countries other than Russia increase production to take advantage of the higher prices.

And if the war in Ukraine ends then a bankrupt Russia desperate for earnings will open the gas taps to the max.

My expectation / hope however is that this inflation burst has permanently ended the era of ultra low interest rates and that will be sufficient to start a slow motion crash from the first time buyer starter homes up.

I read that and not that I am saying you are wrong but I just see loads of if's and buts in what your saying. Outside of a few websites I use my most MSM source is the Daily Telegraph and if you used a scale of 1 to 10 in variations on what is coming in the economy in the next 5 years it would range from hopeful to total  destruction and with a hundred different predictions in-between which is probably where  my thoughts are at the moment in that I don;t have a fecking clue

I would say interest rates are here to stay and inflation is going to be a bitch for another few years, but that is based on nothing

[Chewing Grass]

Was out and about yesterday and last night and it was really busy everywhere with a number of late night parties going on to boot. It was almost as though folk have either adjusted their finances, got a monetary boost or are just living in ignorant bliss until TSHTF.

Just thought it was a bit odd.

[With a crooked smile]

40 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Was out and about yesterday and last night and it was really busy everywhere with a number of late night parties going on to boot. It was almost as though folk have either adjusted their finances, got a monetary boost or are just living in ignorant bliss until TSHTF.

Just thought it was a bit odd.

I walked through the centre of Keswick Friday night. Felt very similar to what you described above. Lots of people coming in and out of bars. Restaurants packed. I expected it to be quiet.

Funny old world.

[spunko]

54 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I read that and not that I am saying you are wrong but I just see loads of if's and buts in what your saying. Outside of a few websites I use my most MSM source is the Daily Telegraph and if you used a scale of 1 to 10 in variations on what is coming in the economy in the next 5 years it would range from hopeful to total  destruction and with a hundred different predictions in-between which is probably where  my thoughts are at the moment in that I don;t have a fecking clue

I would say interest rates are here to stay and inflation is going to be a bitch for another few years, but that is based on nothing

That is because the Tory media in this country is controlled by landowners and those with a vested interest in keeping the asset bubble going. They can control sentiment a little but not enough to prevent a crash.

Can you name one mainstream media outlet calling for a crash with all its obvious benefits? I can't 

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, haroldshand said:

our cash piles are being inflated away by the the day

Depends how you measure it. Against the S&P500* mine has appreciated by around a third (excluding FX) since the start of the year. Cash certainly isn't a place to be long-term, but it has it's moments. 

*Lazily using a GBP hedged S&P500 ETF called IGUS as a benchmark.

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

It looks like a one-off burst of inflation which has mostly already happened.

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

My expectation / hope however is that this inflation burst has permanently ended the era of ultra low interest rates and that will be sufficient to start a slow motion crash

I agree, except the strikethrough part. I personally cannot imagine how the certainty and specualtion we have seen in housing could ever deflate in an orderly manner.

[spygirl]

Soaring mortgage rates to pile pressure on property markets worldwide

Housing markets face seismic change as low interest rate environment ends

https://www.ft.com/content/528500c8-7cfa-4aaf-9fca-7692aafeb9ce

FT are doing the non jpeg so cant cutnpaste.

Excellent chart show 10y average of private housing stock turnover.

Graph starts in late 60s, before mortgages became mass market.

Turnover 7%

Line then rises to a peak in 1990 at 13%

Falls to 7% in 1998, stabilises there  til 2008 then lurches dien to under 5% at covid.

Minor ramp to just over 5% at covid SD.

Most people won't sell their house.

 

 

 

[Axeman123]

https://archive.ph/1bthr

Edited October 9, 2022 by Axeman123
add graphic

[XswampyX]

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Soaring mortgage rates to pile pressure on property markets worldwide

Housing markets face seismic change as low interest rate environment ends

https://www.ft.com/content/528500c8-7cfa-4aaf-9fca-7692aafeb9ce

FT are doing the non jpeg so cant cutnpaste.

Excellent chart show 10y average of private housing stock turnover.

Graph starts in late 60s, before mortgages became mass market.

Turnover 7%

Line then rises to a peak in 1990 at 13%

Falls to 7% in 1998, stabilises there  til 2008 then lurches dien to under 5% at covid.

Minor ramp to just over 5% at covid SD.

Most people won't sell their house.

 

 

 

 

[spygirl]

21 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

 

How you do that?

Screen shot?

 

[XswampyX]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Screen shot?

Yep... Print screen then come here and press Ctrl-V.

You have to be careful not to dox yourself, so I crop it in GIMP first.

 

[spunko]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Soaring mortgage rates to pile pressure on property markets worldwide

Housing markets face seismic change as low interest rate environment ends

https://www.ft.com/content/528500c8-7cfa-4aaf-9fca-7692aafeb9ce

FT are doing the non jpeg so cant cutnpaste.

Excellent chart show 10y average of private housing stock turnover.

Graph starts in late 60s, before mortgages became mass market.

Turnover 7%

Line then rises to a peak in 1990 at 13%

Falls to 7% in 1998, stabilises there  til 2008 then lurches dien to under 5% at covid.

Minor ramp to just over 5% at covid SD.

Most people won't sell their house.

 

 

 

Boomernomics is the answer, I'm not selling it cheap.

[spygirl]

19 hours ago, spunko said:

Boomernomics is the answer, I'm not selling it cheap.

Take mid boomer as born in 55 then the chart is pretty much a good fit for prime boomer buying age - 35.

You have to thin that the modern properdee = £££ was due to boomers hoovering up under priced property  -  WW 2 deaths n all that.

And we may be now be approaching mid boomer downsize/death - 75-85

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Inque]

 

[Boon]

Lewis pisses me off. I do actually think he has the brains to compute the situation but it wouldn't be very good for his popularity to start suggesting that people should take some hard medicine and have some suffering if we are to be stronger in future.

He will never suggest anything that would be beneficial but controversial... reforms to benefits, people reducing their leverage by selling up, people reducing energy usage, because one he does his reputation as some kind of vigilante is gone.

And also money pumping also disproportionately benefits him as a very rich man, I would imagine he has a very diversifed portfolio of investments including business and property.

So his standard act will be to play an overexcited ape on the sidelines, screaming indirectly for more free money to be dished out, while all the people love him for it and tout him for next chancellor/PM.

[HousePriceMania]

33 minutes ago, Boon said:

Lewis pisses me off

Sold a crappy website for a fortune and now is the master of the universe

Sunak's chum too if the last few months are to be believed.

He is thje champion of the greater fool.

what a c***.

Edited October 10, 2022 by HousePriceMania

[Axeman123]

55 minutes ago, Inque said:

 

The emergency plan should be to distribute .gov leaflets "how to sell your arse", along with condoms!

[Inque]

Talking about possible drop in house prices on Talk Radio now

[HousePriceMania]

 

23 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The emergency plan should be to distribute .gov leaflets "how to sell your arse", along with condoms!

Dont you get extra without the condoms ?

[WICAO]

18 minutes ago, Inque said:

Talking about possible drop in house prices on Talk Radio now

Markets can go up as well as down...  I think a lot of people have either forgotten that or not taken the time to learn it in the first place...

[Option5]

On 09/10/2022 at 11:46, spygirl said:

Soaring mortgage rates to pile pressure on property markets worldwide

Housing markets face seismic change as low interest rate environment ends

https://www.ft.com/content/528500c8-7cfa-4aaf-9fca-7692aafeb9ce

FT are doing the non jpeg so cant cutnpaste.

Excellent chart show 10y average of private housing stock turnover.

Graph starts in late 60s, before mortgages became mass market.

Turnover 7%

Line then rises to a peak in 1990 at 13%

Falls to 7% in 1998, stabilises there  til 2008 then lurches dien to under 5% at covid.

Minor ramp to just over 5% at covid SD.

Most people won't sell their house.

 

 

 

What about new houses?

Do they affect the figures?

[Axeman123]

36 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Dont you get extra without the condoms ?

They should mention that in the leaflet!

Re the tweet 2% of rate rises by Christmas! That'll put a lot of people off their Turkey!

On a similar theme calls for an emergency BoE rise in the Telegraph:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-must-move-quickly-120241869.html

"Maurice Obstfeld, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said the Bank of England has been put in a position where it must demonstrate that it is not a captive of the Treasury even if this means inflicting economic harm. He said: “They need to raise rates before the next meeting; that would send a very powerful message. Fears over fiscal dominance are real given the way the British government has conducted itself in this episode. A lot of damage has been done.”

[HousePriceMania]

58 minutes ago, WICAO said:

Housing Markets can go up as well as down...  

FFS, dont scare people.

[spygirl]

53 minutes ago, Option5 said:

What about new houses?

Do they affect the figures?

When they are sold for the second time, yes.

[AWW]

30 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-must-move-quickly-120241869.html

From that article, "Most fixed deals are really floating rates with a two-year teaser."

I'd never really thought about short-term fixes like that before, but it's entirely true.