Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Dave Bloke]

1 hour ago, Wight Flight said:

if you take that £1,200 and extrapolate it into a OO or BTL mortgage at today's 6% rate it doesn't suggest anything other than prices can only go one way.

What does 1200pcm get you in terms of a mortgage? What deposit do they require?

I used the Nationwide Mortgage Calculator and they said

Borrowing £180,000 over 25 years means your monthly payment might be:

£910 - £1,187

That's for a 200K property 10% deposit

Edited October 4, 2022 by Dave Bloke

[Wight Flight]

8 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

What does 1200pcm get you in terms of a mortgage? What deposit do they require?

I used the Nationwide Mortgage Calculator and they said

Borrowing £180,000 over 25 years means your monthly payment might be:

£910 - £1,187

That's for a 200K property 10% deposit

That isn't going to get you the three bed semi you need.

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, AWW said:

I can't see this one being a long, slow, drawn-out decline like the one in the first half of the 90s. Things are going to unravel extremely quickly. Living expenses are increasing at a far greater rate. IR hikes are also happening at an unprecedented rate.

Say there's one you fancy and would buy at -XX%, why not offer that lowball amount now? You might land on a vendor with as negative an outlook as yourself. Just in case things don't work out as expected. In your S21 position it saves you waiting and saves you paying rent. The worst that can happen is they say no but on the plus side it might make a vendor and estate agent's bowel move.

[Dave Bloke]

35 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

That isn't going to get you the three bed semi you need.

What do they cost?

[Wight Flight]

9 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

What do they cost?

Interestingly the bottom of the market last month was £260k. They have all been reduced to £250k and new ones are coming on at £250k as well.

They all seem to be chain free, so offloading landlords?

[Dave Bloke]

Just now, Wight Flight said:

Interestingly the bottom of the market last month was £260k. They have all been reduced to £250k and new ones are coming on at £250k as well.

They all seem to be chain free, so offloading landlords?

These are on the island, right?

What energy efficiency levels are you seeing on those? LL won't be able to rent out <C post 2025 so best to cut and run now.

[Wight Flight]

7 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

These are on the island, right?

What energy efficiency levels are you seeing on those? LL won't be able to rent out <C post 2025 so best to cut and run now.

Only checked a few but a mix of C and D.

But they are all semi or terraced so I would expect that.

[Wight Flight]

Also keep in mind these are very bottom of the market homes, whereas £1,200 per month is very 'top' rent. Most are looking at about £800 per month as the max they can afford.

[Don Coglione]

8 minutes ago, Dave Bloke said:

These are on the island, right?

What energy efficiency levels are you seeing on those? LL won't be able to rent out <C post 2025 so best to cut and run now.

More green bollocks that will quietly be dropped, once it's clear that there aren't sufficient compliant houses to rent.

[Wight Flight]

3 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

More green bollocks that will quietly be dropped, once it's clear that there aren't sufficient compliant houses to rent.

It doesn't need to exist. Tenants are going to reject high energy cost homes without any legislation. 

How do you fancy heating this bad boy?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127680392?#/media?channel=RES_LET&id=media6&ref=photoCollage

[Boon]

That doesn't seem very efficient as a long-term let. What kind of person would live there?

Probably could get more than £1,200 a week as a holiday let in summer when the heating bills are less. Then mothball it over winter.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Boon said:

That doesn't seem very efficient as a long-term let. What kind of person would live there?

Probably could get more than £1,200 a week as a holiday let in summer when the heating bills are less. Then mothball it over winter.

Yes, the energy efficiency rule on long term lets doesn't apply to holiday lets, so more long term lets are turning into them. Where I am, gone are the days a house sold then came on as a long term rental, now they appear on Sykes Cottages, Lots of families living in overcrowded conditions and there will be a massive amount of holiday lets empty nearly all winter. What a waste. Though this summer the number of holiday bookings here were down and prices were slashed compared to 2021, as more people must have gone abroad again. Hopefully if mortgage rates tick up and due to the cost of living, people cut back on holidays, some of the holiday let owners will get burned.

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

That doesn't seem very efficient as a long-term let. What kind of person would live there?

Probably could get more than £1,200 a week as a holiday let in summer when the heating bills are less. Then mothball it over winter.

You are assuming it is a long term let.

Landlords call six months 'long term' You are likely to be kicked out in April.

It is also very cheap. I would have expected nearer £1,600 so I guess they might have factored in the heating cost?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

It doesn't need to exist. Tenants are going to reject high energy cost homes without any legislation. 

How do you fancy heating this bad boy?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127680392?#/media?channel=RES_LET&id=media6&ref=photoCollage

We will know it's a tenants' market when agents finally bother to put floorplans on rental properties on Rightmove. It can't be that difficult/expensive, I think letting agents/landlords just do it as a sort of 'renter scum don't deserve a floorplan' status thing.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, Darude said:

We will know it's a tenants' market when agents finally bother to put floorplans on rental properties on Rightmove. It can't be that difficult/expensive, I think letting agents/landlords just do it as a sort of 'renter scum don't deserve a floorplan' status thing.

A floorplan is normally a red flag that the owner is trying to sell it.

Expect to be kicked out after a short time.

[Frank Hovis]

You and Yours covered this today.

I didn't hear all of it but there were people who had lost mortgage offers, an IO buyer who despite having equity might have to sell if they couldn't afford the next mortgage as the loan balance would then fall due, and a young wfh marketer living in Cornwall who was looking at their mortgage doubling at which point they would be taking a lodger into their spare room.

There was nothing there about "you can't lose with bricks and mortar" or "property only ever goes up"; the problems were varied but problems they all were.

[GTM]

This is an interesting one.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127640330#/?channel=RES_LET

Please give us 10 grand to enable us to disappear somewhere warmer for the winter. Surely nobody is dumb enough.

[Wight Flight]

13 minutes ago, GTM said:

This is an interesting one.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127640330#/?channel=RES_LET

Please give us 10 grand to enable us to disappear somewhere warmer for the winter. Surely nobody is dumb enough.

I prefer the one I posted yesterday. And it is £650 cheaper.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85301163#/?channel=RES_LET

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, GTM said:

This is an interesting one.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127640330#/?channel=RES_LET

Please give us 10 grand to enable us to disappear somewhere warmer for the winter. Surely nobody is dumb enough.

 Ideal for someone wanting to escape city life over the Winter

Err, in which case theyd fuck off somewhere warm.

Unless we are talking exceptional circumstances i.e 6 months rent while a house is rebuilt then Id expect the number og takers to be ... zero.

Maybe summer.

Winter in the UK? Fuckit.

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

You and Yours covered this today.

I didn't hear all of it but there were people who had lost mortgage offers, an IO buyer who despite having equity might have to sell if they couldn't afford the next mortgage as the loan balance would then fall due, and a young wfh marketer living in Cornwall who was looking at their mortgage doubling at which point they would be taking a lodger into their spare room.

There was nothing there about "you can't lose with bricks and mortar" or "property only ever goes up"; the problems were varied but problems they all were.

Where are the reports of people's savings/wages being devalued so can't afford their rent or mortgage ?

[wherebee]

Looked at a place I used to live in the UK.  Very nice, detached houses, 30's stock.

Loads on the market.  As in LOADS.  Prices were the same as 15 years ago, which really surprised me.  South East.  With the GBP drop, in effect they have gone backwards by a substantial amount over those 15 years.

Really surprised by that.  London commuter belt.

[Bobthebuilder]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

Looked at a place I used to live in the UK.  Very nice, detached houses, 30's stock.

Loads on the market.  As in LOADS.  Prices were the same as 15 years ago, which really surprised me.  South East.  With the GBP drop, in effect they have gone backwards by a substantial amount over those 15 years.

Really surprised by that.  London commuter belt.

Most of Dorset is more expensive like for like than many London suburbs these days.

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I prefer the one I posted yesterday. And it is £650 cheaper.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85301163#/?channel=RES_LET

How much would that be worth WF.Looks nice.

weird they're doing a furnished let with the value of all that furniture.times msut be hard in millionaire land

[Boon]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Looked at a place I used to live in the UK.  Very nice, detached houses, 30's stock.

Loads on the market.  As in LOADS.  Prices were the same as 15 years ago, which really surprised me.  South East.  With the GBP drop, in effect they have gone backwards by a substantial amount over those 15 years.

Really surprised by that.  London commuter belt.

Said already I don't think the falls will affect the country equally, some will be down and some might even be up. 
Those that are up I think will be places that are cheap, where there is not much competition on the market either due to no supply or people not selling, in nice places that people want to live in.

So the converse will be true for the downs: places that are expensive, where there is a lot of competition on the market, maybe forced sellers, in not-so-nice places that people had to live in. So the commuter towns had a lot of people forced out of London on affordability but in the last decade prices have evened up a bit.

Also I think about 15 years ago was probably the first new build boom where prices went ridiculous, maybe because there was less shiny new buildings in London,train fares were less and service charges modest. So you see prices like this where they have taken 15 years to get back to 2005, and look like they could roll over again if nicer places get cheaper.

Places I think might struggle are high density places that aren't that nice. Slough, Basingstoke come to mind.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

How much would that be worth WF.Looks nice.

weird they're doing a furnished let with the value of all that furniture.times msut be hard in millionaire land

Not a clue. I would think well north of £3m.