Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Boon]

Halifax for last month is -0.1% (negative)

Wonder if it'll make the news or it'll be the 100th rehash of someone crying because they can't afford their mortgage.

[Democorruptcy]

On 30/09/2022 at 13:51, sancho panza said:

Balance sheet not in great shape,but theyve had a tought couple of years tbf.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

[sancho panza]

cross post from deflation thread.Very deflationary but clearly will affect hosue prices going forward

 

[Stuey]

5 hours ago, Boon said:

Halifax for last month is -0.1% (negative)

Wonder if it'll make the news or it'll be the 100th rehash of someone crying because they can't afford their mortgage.

They're getting us ready for the next bailout/bail-in of all these people who have been treated unfairly. Tick tock...

[Chewing Grass]

On 24/09/2022 at 21:56, Chewing Grass said:

Holding steady at 224

So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 over the last 48 days.

Just been for a look at the first half of my postcode and we are at 221.

So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221over the last 60 days.

Looks like the rush for the exit is over and things have plateaued oop north.

[HousePriceMania]

[Stuey]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just been for a look at the first half of my postcode and we are at 221.

So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221over the last 60 days.

Looks like the rush for the exit is over and things have plateaued oop north.

A lot have missed out on Buying The Dip and will regret it until 2034 

[Castlevania]

Had a look at Rightmove for my old corner of South East London. There’s loads of reductions this week.

[Democorruptcy]

Talking about reductions, this zoopla link is them sorted in order, highest reduction first. Just edit the area from London to your own.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Democorruptcy

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Talking about reductions, this zoopla link is them sorted in order, highest reduction first. Just edit the area from London to your own.

SOme impressive downgrades there.

FAsnicated by this oen £2.8mn

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60537738/?search_identifier=a1401b79b735cfdf6d9a92d78159966c

SW1W

Transactionless market

[haroldshand]

14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Had a look at Rightmove for my old corner of South East London. There’s loads of reductions this week.

I stopped looking ages ago at my old manor in SW London Wimbledon, it was totally mental then so cannot imagine now. the little terraced houses that once homed just everyday normal people with normal jobs selling for £800,000, just fecking insane

[haroldshand]

Keep seeing all these wonderful graphs on here of "proof the market is crashing"

I will not believe a word of it until I see the MOM data from the LR or even Nationwide falling month after month and the MSM acknowledging it.

[A_P]

13 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Talking about reductions, this zoopla link is them sorted in order, highest reduction first. Just edit the area from London to your own.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60017139/

added the discount

Edited October 8, 2022 by A_P

[Democorruptcy]

9 minutes ago, A_P said:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60017139/

I couldn't see the -48.7% BOGOF on that, here it is:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/property/chelsea/?page_size=25&q=Chelsea%2C+London&radius=0&results_sort=most_reduced&search_source=refine&price_min=10000000&price_max=10000000&view_type=list

[Democorruptcy]

16 minutes ago, A_P said:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60017139/

added the discount

I wish I hadn't put London in that link now, to find your house I first searched on minimum £10m, when you look at that lot it makes you think your money is worthless

People should edit this one instead.

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/property/stoke-on-trent/?q=Stoke-on-Trent%2C+Staffordshire&radius=0&results_sort=most_reduced&search_source=refine&view_type=list

 

[A_P]

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/60537738

This one has some sold data. What would be a painful price that would get people at bit excitable?

[Boon]

The real expensive houses in London I think are not really valid, I view that part of the market as totally separate.
Mostly marketed at rich foreigners, people can ask for any old rip-off price to start in the hope that they just don't notice. 

That last London one has only 28 years left on the lease for instance so the original price simply is hoping that a clueless idiot buys it without realising.

Seems stupid but there are equivalents in normal people land, ie people trying to sell flats with cladding without the safety certificate at the same price pre-Grenfell. Obviously hoping a rich foreigner buys it for cash to rent out.

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[sarahbell]

On 05/10/2022 at 14:33, HousePriceMania said:

Slightly worrying...

 

https://news.sky.com/story/kwarteng-to-meet-high-street-bank-chiefs-amid-mortgage-market-freeze-12712690

 

"The chancellor will hold talks on Thursday with executives from lenders including Barclays and NatWest amid concerns about the impact of recent markets turmoil on home loans provision, Sky News learns."

 

 

Wtf for.

Cheeky fuckers. Keep the printing machines off and stop propping up the insanely hot housing market.

 

[HousePriceMania]

29 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Wtf for.

Cheeky fuckers. Keep the printing machines off and stop propping up the insanely hot housing market THAT THEY ARE ALL INVESTED IN.

 

See the problem/crime yet ?

 

[Democorruptcy]

Funding for Lending, Term Funding wasn't a good idea then? Will somebody be sacked?

"Millions of existing borrowers have only ever known artificially low rates"

Dreams on hold: owners and buyers face the UK housing market storm

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Funding for Lending, Term Funding wasn't a good idea then? Will somebody be sacked?

"Millions of existing borrowers have only ever known artificially low rates"

Dreams on hold: owners and buyers face the UK housing market storm

What about help to buy? 

 

Someone should be jailed. 

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

only ever known artificially low rates

That kind of wording implies past tense to me, feels like a signpost.

[haroldshand]

Have to say this as nobody else will and the one big elephant in the room(me included) our cash piles are being inflated away by the the day 

Who will benefit from a property crash

 

[Frank Hovis]

7 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Have to say this as nobody else will and the one big elephant in the room(me included) our cash piles are being inflated away by the the day 

Who will benefit from a property crash

 

 

It looks like a one-off burst of inflation which has mostly already happened. You have lost 10% of the value of your cash savings because of the step change in energy costs and knock-on increases but why would you then have another 10% inflation over the next twelve months.

There may be some residual inflation from companies rebuilding their profit margins but energy costs should plateau and begin to decline as countries other than Russia increase production to take advantage of the higher prices.

And if the war in Ukraine ends then a bankrupt Russia desperate for earnings will open the gas taps to the max.

My expectation / hope however is that this inflation burst has permanently ended the era of ultra low interest rates and that will be sufficient to start a slow motion crash from the first time buyer starter homes up.