Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hi @Democorruptcy what website do you get that info from ?

 

If I told you, I'd have to kill you. FACT.

[JoeDavola]

My parents have been 'selling' thier house for the last two years.

Sold it at the start of the pandemic for £238K which blew their minds as they were expecting £220K max.

Then took it off the market and sold it a year later for £276K briefly, quickly found out that buyer was full of shit, then sold it to the next buyer for £270K who has been waiting for the last 3 months for them to find somewhere.

Dad mentioned last week that he thinks prices are up 5%+ since he sold in other words that he's doing the buyer a favor by not asking for more money....

...well that's no longer a problem as their buyer has pulled out as he can't afford the mortgage any more and the house is being taken off the market. No doubt going back on for a THIRD time early next year.

By the time they're done with this, if they're ever done with this, they'll have spent a full 3 years plus of their retirement trying to move house. What a waste.

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

My parents have been 'selling' thier house for the last two years.

Sold it at the start of the pandemic for £238K which blew their minds as they were expecting £220K max.

Then took it off the market and sold it a year later for £276K briefly, quickly found out that buyer was full of shit, then sold it to the next buyer for £270K who has been waiting for the last 3 months for them to find somewhere.

Dad mentioned last week that he thinks prices are up 5%+ since he sold in other words that he's doing the buyer a favor by not asking for more money....

...well that's no longer a problem as their buyer has pulled out as he can't afford the mortgage any more and the house is being taken off the market. No doubt going back on for a THIRD time early next year.

By the time they're done with this, if they're ever done with this, they'll have spent a full 3 years plus of their retirement trying to move house. What a waste.

Do they actually want to move house?

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Do they actually want to move house?

Yes but they're mental.

[Boon]

Think a lot of people in that position, or will be.

Also I think people would rather live unhappily/lose money every month before reducing price to a proceedable price in the market. For some properties like the new build flats the reduction in what people thought it was worth compared to the current value is vast.

The mindset similar to those who fall in love with a share on the way up, but when it declines hold on to it even though they know it is overvalued in the hope that it recovers.

Still early doors but haven't seen much in the way of panic pricing and I think there will be stupid stories next year of people squeezed on their mortgage borrowing more money to pay it every month because they can't face that it is worth less.

[JoeDavola]

Yeah I'm not even gonna predict a drop in prices, but I don't see where a £270K buyer is gonna come from next year if the cost of borrowing stays high and given cost of living increases. If they somehow suppress the cost of borrowing massively maybe they can kick the can down the road again and keep prices up and houses actually selling.

The reason I voted for 'inertia' rather than a crash is the mentality mentioned above with a market filled with people refusing to sell it "for less than it's worth", and nobody actually managing to buy or sell anything.

[Axeman123]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

The reason I voted for 'inertia' rather than a crash is the mentality mentioned above with a market filled with people refusing to sell it "for less than it's worth", and nobody actually managing to buy or sell anything.

Death, Divorce, Debt. They are always chugging along and bringing stock to market.

18 minutes ago, Boon said:

I think there will be stupid stories next year of people squeezed on their mortgage borrowing more money to pay it every month

We could see inherited houses sold cheap to distribute the proceeds ASAP, so the heirs can keep up their own mortgages!

[JoeDavola]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

Death, Divorce, Debt. They are always chugging along and bringing stock to market.

Funny you mention that my mate got a gorgeous house about 18 months ago after looking for a long time, and he only managed to find a nice place well maintained because of a divorce.

It's a shame but divorce does seem to be your best bet finding a nice gaff, since the ones people die in are often falling to bits.

[HousePriceMania]

Anyone know who Roger Bootle is....if you do then you'll know why this is hilarious

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/09/plunge-house-prices-now-inevitable/

 

A plunge in house prices is now inevitable

Surging interest rates means nothing can be done to avert a 1990s-style slump

ROGER BOOTLE

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

My parents have been 'selling' thier house for the last two years.

Sold it at the start of the pandemic for £238K which blew their minds as they were expecting £220K max.

Then took it off the market and sold it a year later for £276K briefly, quickly found out that buyer was full of shit, then sold it to the next buyer for £270K who has been waiting for the last 3 months for them to find somewhere.

Dad mentioned last week that he thinks prices are up 5%+ since he sold in other words that he's doing the buyer a favor by not asking for more money....

...well that's no longer a problem as their buyer has pulled out as he can't afford the mortgage any more and the house is being taken off the market. No doubt going back on for a THIRD time early next year.

By the time they're done with this, if they're ever done with this, they'll have spent a full 3 years plus of their retirement trying to move house. What a waste.

reminds me of Spain 2007.  Loads of people "sold" to Irish buyers only to see the buyer not proceeding.

Was a lot of bitter people for many years after that, with most houses achieving 50% less several years later

[JoeDavola]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

reminds me of Spain 2007.  Loads of people "sold" to Irish buyers only to see the buyer not proceeding.

Was a lot of bitter people for many years after that, with most houses achieving 50% less several years later

They have nothing to be bitter about except wasted time, they bought the house for £170K 8 years ago, and that was basically a swap for a house they sold for twice what they paid for it about 15 years previous.

The numbers have been all theoretical. Nothing gained and 2 years lost fretting about it.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

They have nothing to be bitter about except wasted time, they bought the house for £170K 8 years ago, and that was basically a swap for a house they sold for twice what they paid for it about 15 years previous.

The numbers have been all theoretical. Nothing gained and 2 years lost fretting about it.

Yes, I agree, the numbers are theoretical, unless down sizing or if you are a FTB.

I do think your posts are brilliant though.

Enjoy your parents while you have them Joe.  One day they'll be gone and life wont feel the same.

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Enjoy your parents while you have them Joe.  One day they'll be gone and life wont feel the same.

Yes as I say I know they wont be around forever and it's such a shame they've spent two years of their retirement on this.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

By the time they're done with this, if they're ever done with this, they'll have spent a full 3 years plus of their retirement trying to move house. What a waste.

Retired folk need some sort of hobby to fill their time. Looking at properties on RM and pretending they are going to move, is a lot cheaper than say playing golf.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Retired folk need some sort of hobby to fill their time. Looking at properties on RM and pretending they are going to move, is a lot cheaper than say playing golf.

I actually have suspected this; that since neither of them have any hobbies or friends, does this give them something to do all day.

If that is the case then hey they've certainly gotten good value for money.

If I was the EA selling their gaff that they've been stringing along for 2 years I'd not be happy however.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes as I say I know they wont be around forever and it's such a shame they've spent two years of their retirement on this.

Maybe it's given them something to do.  

one friend of mine spent 3 years trying to move....now regrets it and will be ****ed when the fixed rate expires in 12 months time.

They looked at fixing it now but they had missed the boat and/or couldn't afford the early repayment fees/etc

Might have done them a favour not selling.

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Retired folk need some sort of hobby to fill their time. Looking at properties on RM and pretending they are going to move, is a lot cheaper than say playing golf.

I joke with my old man about him spending his days watching the bloody flight radar, or tracking rainfall as it crosses the county.

Life in the fast lane.

[Don Coglione]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

My parents have been 'selling' thier house for the last two years.

Sold it at the start of the pandemic for £238K which blew their minds as they were expecting £220K max.

Then took it off the market and sold it a year later for £276K briefly, quickly found out that buyer was full of shit, then sold it to the next buyer for £270K who has been waiting for the last 3 months for them to find somewhere.

Dad mentioned last week that he thinks prices are up 5%+ since he sold in other words that he's doing the buyer a favor by not asking for more money....

...well that's no longer a problem as their buyer has pulled out as he can't afford the mortgage any more and the house is being taken off the market. No doubt going back on for a THIRD time early next year.

By the time they're done with this, if they're ever done with this, they'll have spent a full 3 years plus of their retirement trying to move house. What a waste.

Put in a cheeky 200k bid yourself?!

[leonardratso]

Went osteo this morning, he was telling me he had an estate agent in before me, and asked him how business was doing, apparently if he had asked him 3-4 weeks ok it was fine, last 1-2 weeks they are extremely concerned at the volume drop, mainly people not being able to get affordable mortgages or having the rug pulled on any mortgage offers they were using to buy or look to buy with.
Osteo said the guy was playing it down a bit as just a blip but he reckons he was shitting himself at what was happening, that nobody obviously saw coming - like for 20 years. For some reason osteo also said 'they' reckon it could hit rock bottom by end of october - no idea who they are or what 'it' is but sounded too vague to bother probing.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

Put in a cheeky 200k bid yourself?!

then pull out as you dont like the decor.

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone know who Roger Bootle is....if you do then you'll know why this is hilarious

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/09/plunge-house-prices-now-inevitable/

 

A plunge in house prices is now inevitable

Surging interest rates means nothing can be done to avert a 1990s-style slump

ROGER BOOTLE

 

Brilliant.

I used to read him every day back in the late 90s when part of my role was investment, gilts and other governments' bonds only so little freedom to be adventurous, and he was excellent.

I didn't read him for years after that and then he popped as some kind of cheerleader for high and ever rising house prices.

If he's saying this now then the crash may be near-vertical.

[dnb24]

On 24/09/2022 at 16:50, dnb24 said:

1600 hit

1700, reductions are 30% of daily listings.

[JoeDavola]

I have now seen the email that the EA sent to my folks....it said that the buyers mortgage deal expired and the new deal was more expesive so they'd need to reduce their offer from £270K to £240K, and the EA might be able to get them to go as high as £250K.

That looks to me to be the EA saying "take £250K as it's likely to be the best offer you'll get for a while".

The good thing is they don't seem too wound up about it, think they're happy just to forget about houses for a while.

Edited October 11, 2022 by JoeDavola

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I have now seen the email that the EA sent to my folks....it said that the buyers mortgage deal expired and the new deal was more expesive so they'd need to reduce their offer from £270K to £240K, and the EA might be able to get them to go as high as £250K.

That looks to me to be the EA saying "take £250K as it's likely to be the best offer you'll get for a while".

The good thing is they don't seem too wound up about it, think they're happy just to forget about houses for a while.

I might as well chuck a parental anecdote into the ring.

My in laws ( perma property bulls ) are getting old and are talking about selling up and downsizing.

Their property has shot up in price last 3/4 years (midlands) after years of stagnation.

We had an argument recently where they told me I was always talking about prices crashing.  

I made the point quite strongly that I've been telling people for several years that prices were linked to interest rates, told my wife in March 2020 to go out and buy any old house because the prices would go through the roof.  They weren't having it though, was making out I was a loser for not investing in property.  

Their son, took out a massive mortgage because the deal was too good to be true this year.  Must have caught the S.E. peak prices !!!

It'll be interesting to see how they will all get on in the next 12 months.

Oh, he was telling me his shares had all taken a hit recently, seemed unimpressed that I had sold out.

 

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

I might as well chuck a parental anecdote into the ring.

My in laws ( perma property bulls ) are getting old and are talking about selling up and downsizing.

Their property has shot up in price last 3/4 years (midlands) after years of stagnation.

We had an argument recently where they told me I was always talking about prices crashing.  

I made the point quite strongly that I've been telling people for several years that prices were linked to interest rates, told my wife in March 2020 to go out and buy any old house because the prices would go through the roof.  They weren't having it though, was making out I was a loser for not investing in property.  

Their son, took out a massive mortgage because the deal was too good to be true this year.  Must have caught the S.E. peak prices !!!

It'll be interesting to see how they will all get on in the next 12 months.

Oh, he was telling me his shares had all taken a hit recently, seemed unimpressed that I had sold out.

 

Well as I say I'm still not calling a crash. Could just be a blip. But I think their house in particular is a difficult one to sell, and even if it did go back to £240K that's only back to what prices were mid-pandemic, and the house has still gone up by almost £10K a year every year they've owned it.

I have a very clear memory of 2006 with my Dad angrily telling me that house prices would never fall, and there'd be "blood on the streets" if they did. His house was worth £320K at that point and he sold it about 6 years later for just under £170K.

He said today that prices were cooling in mainland UK, but that wouldn't happen in Northern Ireland.

He may be wrong or he may be right, but didn't explain his reasoning.