Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

6 hours ago, WICAO said:

Why would you waste your time and theirs?

I wasn't wasting their time, I made a fair offer and would buy at that price.

They're wasting their own time trying to sell it for a lot more than it's worth.

[Democorruptcy]

Quote

 

The UK’s red hot housing market is beginning to cool, with a growing number of sellers cutting asking prices and the average time to sell a home lengthening, according to data published by the property portal Zoopla.

More than one in 20 homes for sale had their asking prices slashed last month, by an average of 9 per cent, Zoopla said, the highest level of discounting in 18 months.

“We’re seeing the start of signals that things are softening,” said Gráinne Gilmore, the portal’s head of research.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F68bee4b7-978d-4098-bace-68b224949109

 

1 in 20 means there's plenty of room for improvement.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

Market still stupid in South Manchester/Stockport.  Things going for record money very quickly.

Selling a probate property, nicer part of South Manchester/Stockport.  Bought for 350K 2 years ago.  Now valued at 425K to 475K.  So likely 100K up for no reason.

One near us on for 500K which was a record for the area.  Could only get viewings if you were proceedable, 3 offers over asking price came in.

Another one Cheadle Hulme. On for 525K.  40 odd viewings.  Went for 560, with a higher offer turned down.

Crap holes in bad areas having bidding wars and going for 250K.

But lots of money around here coming from somewhere. Maybe Southerners moving North with Equity. Seeing a lot more HK too, once one family is settled a few more move in too.

I sound like a troll estate agent on TOS, but all true, was never like this up here previously.

[leonardratso]

maybe its 2nd level gentrification.

[wherebee]

This popped up on my Linkedin feed..once the market starts talking about something, it's already happened..

 

 

[Bilbo]

Telegraph today.

Mortgage lending fell by more than a third in April, stoking fears of a slowdown in house prices.

Total lending for house purchases slumped to £4.1bn, from £6.4bn in March, as the impact of higher interest rates kicked in. Data from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals fell to around 66,000 over the month, compared with 70,700 in March.

The number of loans granted was well beneath economists’ expectations, and below the average for the half-decade before the pandemic.

[Herby]

2 hours ago, Bilbo said:

Telegraph today.

Mortgage lending fell by more than a third in April, stoking fears of a slowdown in house prices.

Total lending for house purchases slumped to £4.1bn, from £6.4bn in March, as the impact of higher interest rates kicked in. Data from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals fell to around 66,000 over the month, compared with 70,700 in March.

The number of loans granted was well beneath economists’ expectations, and below the average for the half-decade before the pandemic.

And this is loans granted, which probably has a 3 to 5 week lead time on application? As with most housing statistics, there is a considerable lag time. 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Bilbo said:

Telegraph today.

Mortgage lending fell by more than a third in April, stoking fears of a slowdown in house prices.

Total lending for house purchases slumped to £4.1bn, from £6.4bn in March, as the impact of higher interest rates kicked in. Data from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals fell to around 66,000 over the month, compared with 70,700 in March.

The number of loans granted was well beneath economists’ expectations, and below the average for the half-decade before the pandemic.

Would be interesting to know which banks are lending and at what LTVs/rates/income ratios. I bet rising cost of basics is affecting MMR

 

@WICAO had a good post on main thread ref aussie banks reining in incone ratios to below 9 .dread to think where oz will end up if that's their starting point

Edited May 31, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, WICAO said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-31/about-to-get-harder-to-get-a-big-home-loan/101112904

The Australian banking regulator, APRA, warning some institutions to cut back on risky loans.  In response:

• ANZ reduce debt to income levels from 9x to 7.5x
• NAB reduce debt to income levels from 9x to 8x

Good to see everyone being super vigilant  

Here it is .

[haroldshand]

4 hours ago, Bilbo said:

Telegraph today.

Mortgage lending fell by more than a third in April, stoking fears of a slowdown in house prices.

Total lending for house purchases slumped to £4.1bn, from £6.4bn in March, as the impact of higher interest rates kicked in. Data from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals fell to around 66,000 over the month, compared with 70,700 in March.

The number of loans granted was well beneath economists’ expectations, and below the average for the half-decade before the pandemic.

Yep, read that one myself and that's one of the main indicators I have been waiting for. I have been more less 50-50 for months now on the possibility of a crash, and it changes daily, this news had probably made it 70-30 in favour of prices now crashing.

Coming months indicies and a BTL rush for exit should be interesting reading in the next few months

[Option5]

1 minute ago, haroldshand said:

Yep, read that one myself and that's one of the main indicators I have been waiting for. I have been more less 50-50 for months now on the possibility of a crash, and it changes daily, this news had probably made it 70-30 in favour of prices now crashing.

Coming months indicies and a BTL rush for exit should be interesting reading in the next few months

And don't forget 'help to buy' ends soon. 

[haroldshand]

9 minutes ago, Option5 said:

And don't forget 'help to buy' ends soon. 

Loads of articles in the Daily Telegraph of BTL landlords rushing for the exit, some are hilarious with their views on how they want the public to views them. They are acting like Mother Theresa on steroids, their  halos must weigh a ton with all the good they have done the country and the poor wretches they home out of the kindness of their hearts, and then the governments repay them by "hating landlords", yes I read that today

[Axeman123]

Cheerful article, really heart-warming feel-good stuff:

https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/property-sellers-slash-asking-prices-fifth-market-slows/

"Property sellers in southern England are being forced to cut asking prices by 10pc as the housing market slows, while vendors in other regions have slashed values by as much as a fifth. The share of homes advertised with discounts jumped across Britain this month as buyers call time on the property market boom, according to property website Zoopla. The biggest discounts were concentrated in the markets that recorded the steepest house price growth in the last two years. Vendors in these areas are now slashing prices by nearly 20pc."

[King Penda]

5 hours ago, haroldshand said:

Loads of articles in the Daily Telegraph of BTL landlords rushing for the exit, some are hilarious with their views on how they want the public to views them. They are acting like Mother Theresa on steroids, their  halos must weigh a ton with all the good they have done the country and the poor wretches they home out of the kindness of their hearts, and then the governments repay them by "hating landlords", yes I read that today

Who can buy them for Abdul to live in or will every advert be sold with tennant in situ

[Micky Roberts]

16 hours ago, Bilbo said:

Telegraph today.

Mortgage lending fell by more than a third in April, stoking fears of a slowdown in house prices.

Total lending for house purchases slumped to £4.1bn, from £6.4bn in March, as the impact of higher interest rates kicked in. Data from the Bank of England showed mortgage approvals fell to around 66,000 over the month, compared with 70,700 in March.

The number of loans granted was well beneath economists’ expectations, and below the average for the half-decade before the pandemic.

Number of approvals fell by 6%

Value of approvals fell by 36%

Either sales at the top end of the market have collapsed completely or the typical mortgage has reduced significantly.

Are buyers stumping up bigger deposits or does this herald a major fall in selling prices?

[AlfredTheLittle]

Prices still insane, viewings very difficult to get, houses still selling incredibly quickly, and very little that's decent for sale around where I'm looking, which is a few different places across the south.

Have seen one or two reductions though, it's very few but they're noticeable as have been so rare recently.

[Wight Flight]

3 hours ago, Micky Roberts said:

Number of approvals fell by 6%

Value of approvals fell by 36%

Either sales at the top end of the market have collapsed completely or the typical mortgage has reduced significantly.

Are buyers stumping up bigger deposits or does this herald a major fall in selling prices?

Landlords are offloading. Which is mainly at the cheaper end.

[haroldshand]

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-house-prices-post-10th-month-on-month-gain-may-nationwide-2022-06-01/

 

And yet the prices keep surging 

Immigration numbers and low new build has to be having an effect ?

[haroldshand]

16 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Cheerful article, really heart-warming feel-good stuff:

https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/property-sellers-slash-asking-prices-fifth-market-slows/

"Property sellers in southern England are being forced to cut asking prices by 10pc as the housing market slows, while vendors in other regions have slashed values by as much as a fifth. The share of homes advertised with discounts jumped across Britain this month as buyers call time on the property market boom, according to property website Zoopla. The biggest discounts were concentrated in the markets that recorded the steepest house price growth in the last two years. Vendors in these areas are now slashing prices by nearly 20pc."

If approvals start going south of 50K and definitely if they go below 40K there will be a bloodbath.

Just returned from a matey breakfast with a dozen of us attending at St Ives, my usual BTL barometer was in attendance, though there were two others,  and as usual  quite obliging when he is grilled. But this time he was very snappy, he is getting a load of shit because of heating certificates, couldn't quite work out what his whittling about though I do know he is having to splash some cash out because of it. And he went right into one concerning missed payments and tenants being advised by HB people to not budge an inch until bailiffs knock on the door and that it seems is becoming common practice.

Me thinks that BTL world is starting to lose it's glamour with many of them and it's not such a jolly little world anymore. I expecting the begging from BTL to start in October when tenants are trying their hardest to eat and heat.

[Loki]

4 hours ago, haroldshand said:

But this time he was very snappy, he is getting a load of shit because of heating certificates, couldn't quite work out what his whittling about though I do know he is having to splash some cash out because of it. And he went right into one concerning missed payments and tenants being advised by HB people to not budge an inch until bailiffs knock on the door and that it seems is becoming common practice.

Me thinks that BTL world is starting to lose it's glamour with many of them and it's not such a jolly little world anymore. I expecting the begging from BTL to start in October when tenants are trying their hardest to eat and heat.

That's terrible

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

On 31/05/2022 at 15:11, sancho panza said:

Would be interesting to know which banks are lending and at what LTVs/rates/income ratios. I bet rising cost of basics is affecting MMR

Yes, the mortgage terms will have to be further extended until the computer says 'yes' when it's added enough years and found a lower monthly payment. If the MMR had a maximum 25 year term as initially planned, then people might not have been able to borrow enough.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, haroldshand said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-house-prices-post-10th-month-on-month-gain-may-nationwide-2022-06-01/

 

And yet the prices keep surging 

Immigration numbers and low new build has to be having an effect ?

Rising prices on small volumes ....I'm not sure on the methodolgy they use to mix adjsut/seasonally adjsut.

Following the trends on RM which are based on admittedly lagging land reg data,I wouldn't bet either way on this.My experience of LE2 (the psotcode I monitor the msot) says that the bulk of liquidity is at the higher end detached/semis,poor for terraces and pisspoor for flats,hence skew to the upside.

.Although I reckon the chances of a melt up are a lot smaller than the chances of a melt down and the bit in the middle-real term small drops msot likely.

The bit I'm interested in leveraging is the price of Berkely/Bdev et al which are heavily leveraged to the hosue prices...I still see no reason to mvoe short.

Edited June 1, 2022 by sancho panza

[Stuey]

13 hours ago, Loki said:

That's terrible

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ah ok so that's why xyy looks like without the tinted specs...

[haroldshand]

14 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes, the mortgage terms will have to be further extended until the computer says 'yes' when it's added enough years and found a lower monthly payment. If the MMR had a maximum 25 year term as initially planned, then people might not have been able to borrow enough.

Like extending to 50 year mortgages or even handing them to the next family generation, someone actually considered that a few years ago.

Cash in pensions, multi family member mortgages, 20 million more immigrants entering the UK, who knows what they will come up with next

[haroldshand]

5 hours ago, Stuey said:

Ah ok so that's why xyy looks like without the tinted specs...

Put that drunken slob video up of him singing to you, that was f****** hilarious. Imagine some poor Dad at one time had his daughter bring that mess home to meet him, poor bastard.