Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[haroldshand]

11 hours ago, Inque said:

Do you get complaining of the bird scarers, muck spreading or early start and late nights when farmers trying to get the harvest in too? Always makes me chuckle 

Really pissed me off several years ago  in a Village I was visiting called Melchbourne where they culled a massive flock of wild geese because of the "damage" they were doing to lawns, pastures  and properties there.

I asked one of the locals did they eat them and answer was no, just wiped them out because they were shitting in the wrong place. i.e their big expensive posh properties,  I honestly thought there would be some kind of law against it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[haroldshand]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

do what I do.  just point out that they cannot be in support of immigration or refugee take ins, and then complain about lack of housing.

 

for some reason everyone always loses their shit

The stories I could tell you about how hypocritical some of these rich BTL owning  Villagers are like, anyone will tell you that rural life though not totally escaped from modern crime and deprivation etc is not even remotely close to how bad it is  in  built up areas where most of their rental properties are.

Hand on heart on a scale of 1 to 10 how much they care their actions are having on those areas they would never live in a thousand years I would give the 2 at the most. But a few will collect baked beans and instant dried mash for the food banks and then tell all the locals how much they really care "about the poor".

It's why I always hated the Vicar of Dibley 

A breed of people some with ancestral links going back to the late 1700's who would top themselves if forced to live in the alien world of a modern town estate

[Axeman123]

Just as an example of what can happen:

Australia's bubble makes ours look pedestrian in comparison.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Just as an example of what can happen:

Australia's bubble makes ours look pedestrian in comparison.

Oz has not had a recession since 90ish.

I worked with a few ozzies whod come over to escape the recession in the early 90s.

The growth of China has seen to any form Oz economic or credit cycle. Up n up n up.

Oz faces all the shit the uk has since 1989, all in a few years.

And its economy is now just digging stuff up and selling houses.

Chinas recession will see Oz implode.

Any far sighted Oz will have been praying for Brexit as the uk out if EU will act as a massive safety valve for the young.

 

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Any far sighted Oz will have been praying for Brexit as the uk out if EU will act as a massive safety valve for the young.

I remember a while back Farage was fondly reminiscing about all the young Aussies (and Kiwis etc) you used to see doing bar-work and such in London, whereas now it is all Poles etc. I would like to see a return to that.

[Herby]

14 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I remember a while back Farage was fondly reminiscing about all the young Aussies (and Kiwis etc) you used to see doing bar-work and such in London, whereas now it is all Poles etc. I would like to see a return to that.

Earl's Court used to be awash with them.

[haroldshand]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-pushes-asylum-seeker-approvals-to-30-year-high-3z9r3j99k

 

Cost of living crisis or no cost of living crisis this is the reason why the property crash is probably unlikely to happen, over 1 million reasons last year alone, cannot help thinking we are going down the Japanese route and crowding in a population like sardines with space becoming a major luxury.

When it comes to room to move and open spaces and affordable good housing  we are what water is to the Sahara 

[HousePriceMania]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I remember a while back Farage was fondly reminiscing about all the young Aussies (and Kiwis etc) you used to see doing bar-work and such in London, whereas now it is all Poles etc. I would like to see a return to that.

Ahhhhjh, Kylie 

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, haroldshand said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-pushes-asylum-seeker-approvals-to-30-year-high-3z9r3j99k

 

Cost of living crisis or no cost of living crisis this is the reason why the property crash is probably unlikely to happen, over 1 million reasons last year alone, cannot help thinking we are going down the Japanese route and crowding in a population like sardines with space becoming a major luxury.

When it comes to room to move and open spaces and affordable good housing  we are what water is to the Sahara 

Japan isnt crowded.

Japan is also quite exceptional, holding up high value exports as its working age populations shrinks.

Wed be lucky to be like Japan.

 

 

[Queasing]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/29/help-buy-scheme-close-five-months-early/

 

Htb ending early eagerly await to hear the details of the replacement scheme they have in mind to keep values high and housebuilder profits up. 

[tank]

15 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I remember a while back Farage was fondly reminiscing about all the young Aussies (and Kiwis etc) you used to see doing bar-work and such in London, whereas now it is all Poles etc. I would like to see a return to that.

Those days are long gone. 

The Tories have just issued 1 million visas to third worlders in 12 months with millions more to follow.

You'll have to make do with a lot more Sanjeevs and Abduls, I'm afraid.

Edited May 29, 2022 by tank

[Axeman123]

21 minutes ago, Queasing said:

Htb ending early

I think we may actually see the end of props.

The article does actually make the point that stopping applications several months before the scheme formally closes will allow people to complete etc, so not necessarily early at all. If more props were planned surely they would have been announced first.

[wherebee]

17 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Just as an example of what can happen:

Australia's bubble makes ours look pedestrian in comparison.

yeah.  my place is worth probably 1.5M-2M if I let some cunty real estate agent value it this month.  The wife and I would cheer if it was worth 500k by the time our kids grew up.  

Because we have a brain.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Queasing said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/29/help-buy-scheme-close-five-months-early/

 

Htb ending early eagerly await to hear the details of the replacement scheme they have in mind to keep values high and housebuilder profits up. 

New applications in by Oct, scheme ending Mar 23.

Thats all.

An industry source said: “We were surprised and disappointed to be put in the position where we’re not allowed to tell customers in good time of its withdrawal.

“This is such a popular policy of the Government – and it’s making the Treasury millions as well. They don’t seem to have thought through how upset young couples and families are going to be when they realise, at the last minute, that their first step on the housing ladder just got higher.”

Id like the industry xource to explain his thinking.

The number of EUers with HTB loans on worthless London flats is eye brow raising.

[haroldshand]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Japan isnt crowded.

Japan is also quite exceptional, holding up high value exports as its working age populations shrinks.

Wed be lucky to be like Japan.

 

 

Japan has a population of around 128 million with an area mass only a third bigger than the UK with a huge section of it's population not working and retired and due to get worse, they also have the largest debt of a developed country.

I can think of many countries I would like to see the UK mimic but Japan is not one of them

 

[WICAO]

On 26/05/2022 at 03:27, HousePriceMania said:

Offered 25% off a house yesterday, EA went mental, like i'd stuck my finger up my arse and stirred her tea.

Was a sight to behold.  I wouldn't have done it but from what she was saying the market has turned.

I dont even think 25% off would save me from losing money.

Why would you waste your time and theirs?

[Boon]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I think we may actually see the end of props.

The article does actually make the point that stopping applications several months before the scheme formally closes will allow people to complete etc, so not necessarily early at all. If more props were planned surely they would have been announced first.

Is it that conceivable that they will go into the election without a prop?

Personally I think it's part of a bigger plan. Once the prop is removed there will be some real pain among the flats. This might take some months to process, akin to Wile-E-Coyote running off the edge of a cliff treading air for a bit.

Coupled with higher interest rates (maybe 2.5% this time next year) it could be brutal, new build prices could be 10-20% lower which then puts price pressure on every other one, as then why buy a used one?

Pain might fall disproportionately on the 30-40 age group, those of age who might have bought at the peak and property is worth 20%+ less. Also affected would be the second step, whose boosted home value also depends on the boosted flat value. Can imagine there are a lot of people in these groups, who also more inclined to be Labour voters.

Could there be a new prop that 1) these people might like, and 2) ideologically Labour find hard to replicate?

I think the answer is yes, and it also could be the case that these peoples situations might be desperate enough that house prices overrides politics.

[haroldshand]

3 hours ago, Queasing said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/29/help-buy-scheme-close-five-months-early/

 

Htb ending early eagerly await to hear the details of the replacement scheme they have in mind to keep values high and housebuilder profits up. 

Depends what it is there to really do, I would say to keep a bubble inflated and "helping FTB's" is bollocks.

In which case we have a million per year immigration numbers that should keep the bubble inflated

[haroldshand]

On 25/05/2022 at 18:27, HousePriceMania said:

Offered 25% off a house yesterday, EA went mental, like i'd stuck my finger up my arse and stirred her tea.

Was a sight to behold.  I wouldn't have done it but from what she was saying the market has turned.

I dont even think 25% off would save me from losing money.

I went for a nice long walk in the country with friends and finished off with a nice meal and a pint or two.

But whatever floats your boat

[dnb24]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

The number of EUers with HTB loans on worthless London flats is eye brow raising.

It’s more than eyebrow raising- it’s unreal/dire and I don’t think people realise how bad- this is a complex on Green Lanes- build 2016ish. All flats currently totally unmortgageable due to cladding issues, most bought on H2B, the residents only avenue for respite is if the council buy them out- that’s the only option. 

Edited May 29, 2022 by dnb24

[HousePriceMania]

6 hours ago, Queasing said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/29/help-buy-scheme-close-five-months-early/

 

Htb ending early eagerly await to hear the details of the replacement scheme they have in mind to keep values high and housebuilder profits up. 

This is genius, they have created more fake demand by putting an early deadline just as the market is turning

This'll keep the numbers up and everything looking rosey.

As you say, they'll bring in a new scam after meanwhile 1000s will be sat in crappy new builds that have been rushed to complete.

Got to give it to the tories, they know how to keep a scam going.

[Boon]

The above is replicated throughout London - pretty similar shitboxes that are in areas that were traditionally crap.

You do get the sales trickling through because the yield did make sense at lower interest rates. But now that door is slamming fast as higher interest rates mean bigger costs and better alternatives elsewhere.

Anecdotally these type of flats are difficult to sell even with the EWS but quite easy to rent. I actually think that one of the reasons behind this is peace of mind. I mean, renting in an ex-LA block in London brings the likelihood of social problems, but with the new builds the price almost dictates that at least most people have jobs and will be well-behaved.

For that reason I don't think the council will become buyers of last resort, as if they start filling the flats with waifs and strays it'll absolutely destroy the illusion of 'luxury' apartments all over.

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Is it that conceivable that they will go into the election without a prop?

Personally I think it's part of a bigger plan. Once the prop is removed there will be some real pain among the flats. This might take some months to process, akin to Wile-E-Coyote running off the edge of a cliff treading air for a bit.

Coupled with higher interest rates (maybe 2.5% this time next year) it could be brutal, new build prices could be 10-20% lower which then puts price pressure on every other one, as then why buy a used one?

Pain might fall disproportionately on the 30-40 age group, those of age who might have bought at the peak and property is worth 20%+ less. Also affected would be the second step, whose boosted home value also depends on the boosted flat value. Can imagine there are a lot of people in these groups, who also more inclined to be Labour voters.

Could there be a new prop that 1) these people might like, and 2) ideologically Labour find hard to replicate?

I think the answer is yes, and it also could be the case that these peoples situations might be desperate enough that house prices overrides politics.

Early election maybe, they're up to something.

 

Look at some comments from the article

"Housebuilders — whose sales and share prices have been massively inflated by the subsidy "

Who funded he tories election in 2012 ?

"The quango added that it would promote the closure timetable on its social media channels in the coming weeks."

People will rush to buy at peak bubble prices

"Kevin Hollinrake, Conservative MP for Thirsk and Malton, and co-founder of Hunters Estate Agents, said he was not in favour of the Help to Buy scheme because it targeted new build houses."

I bet he did, 2% on £500,000 is better than 2% on £100,000, cunt.

"The scheme — which was the biggest government intervention in the market since Margaret Thatcher sold off council houses"

 

Market intervenion from the free market tories, cunts.


"But rising interest rates and the country being plunged into a cost of living crisis has sparked concerns that some borrowers will not be able to remortgage their loans."

 

No shit sherlock

 

Explosive growth they say...that firsty bubble destroyed the banking system!!!

 

A spokesman for Homes England said: "The Help to Buy: Equity Loan scheme is due to close on 31 March 2023, by which time all sales transactions must be complete. 

"The scheme will therefore close to new applications at 6pm on 31 October 2022."

 

They've not actually closed it early, they've just created an artificial deadline !!!
 

It's boom time again.

 

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, dnb24 said:

It’s more than eyebrow raising- it’s unreal/dire and I don’t think people realise how bad- this is a complex on Green Lanes- build 2016ish. All flats currently totally unmortgageable due to cladding issues, most bought on H2B, the residents only avenue for respite is if the council buy them out- that’s the only option. 

Get it valued. If unmortgageable give that valuation (will be at most £100k most probably a lot less) to the government. Pay off the HTB Loan using this valuation. Wait for the cladding to be fixed. Profit! Or at least mitigate the pain. Never let a crisis go to waste.

[Boon]

Think if cladding the mortgage valuation is £0

As if by magic, a mumsnet classic pile-on slagging featuring a new build:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4558841-8-weeks-on-the-market-and-no-viewings?

Usually there was an idiot with more money than sense who might buy it, but with no viewings seems that even the foreigners have dried up.