Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

Anyone got the balls to cost average down?

[Hancock]

Just now, BadAlchemy said:

Agreed. The labels change. Things get dressed up as other things in order to maintain the status quo. Perhaps "crony capitalism/globalization" on the right. Still, this seems like shooting oneself in the foot to just shut down producing mines like that.

They wont be shutting it down, id imagine they'll be keeping it for the state/themselves.

But as you imply it will lead to companies not investing once the state screws things up.

[HousePriceMania]

59 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Hochschild taking a beating this morning. Already halved on reports the Peruvian government are to close down their mines in the country.

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Anyone got the balls to cost average down?

I'm using this one as a learning experience, and will now set up an Interactive Brokers account so i can invest in SIL, SILJ and more ETFS.

HOC was a gamble thats looking like a losing ticket.

 

[Majorpain]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Anyone got the balls to cost average down?

I did, its looking like well overblown private investor panic selling whilst those in the know hoover up shares on the cheap.  Not a massive bet, but if it pays off its will be a nice payday.

This is not a game for widows and orphans!

[Hancock]

8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

This is not a game for widows and orphans!

Same applies to people buying a dozen or so similar companies, but its up 50% from its lows!

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I did, its looking like well overblown private investor panic selling whilst those in the know hoover up shares on the cheap.  Not a massive bet, but if it pays off its will be a nice payday.

This is not a game for widows and orphans!

I'm going to go back to bed.

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I did, its looking like well overblown private investor panic selling whilst those in the know hoover up shares on the cheap.  Not a massive bet, but if it pays off its will be a nice payday.

This is not a game for widows and orphans!

Fair play I hope your gutsyness gets rewarded!

[Harley]

Yellow sticker alert!

Black Friday deals on TradingView subscriptions for the next 4 days.  https://www.tradingview.com/

[wherebee]

35 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I'm using this one as a learning experience, and will now set up an Interactive Brokers account so i can invest in SIL, SILJ and more ETFS.

HOC was a gamble thats looking like a losing ticket.

 

I wouldn't feel too bad - one of my junior miners in Oz has halved in price in 12 months as well... because the management are shit.

[Errol]

Epic fall in Hochschild today due to Peru closing mines:

Not a holder, but might be looking now. What else do they have that is not in Peru?

- Edit- just had a quick look at website, and apparently not much.

 

[Majorpain]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Fair play I hope your gutsyness gets rewarded!

I've been in mining shares for 10 years now reasonably successfully, so there is a bit more too it than gutsyness!  There are two types of smackdowns in my experience, justified (i.e. well finds no oil, mine/price collapses) and unjustified (media speculation, political scaremongering).  Bail ASAP if justified and buy more if unjustified!

I'm leaning towards this being a political shakedown by the commies at the top to try and get the rest of the mining sector to pony up some more taxes, this spooked PI's on Sunday but they are limited by Peruvian law and courts in what they can do.  They can make life difficult for HOC but the last thing they want is the mining sector to completely pull investment as that would drop them right in it.

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Epic fall in Hochschild today due to Peru closing mines:

Not a holder, but might be looking now. What else do they have that is not in Peru?

 

From what I read, the 2 mines that the government are threatening to close down "on environmental grounds" make up two thirds of HOCs gold and silver production.  So they have got resources elsewhere, but it's a hefty kick in the nuts.

[Errol]

This is basically why I've avoided Peru for PM investment so far. Was interested in Kuya silver (still am - amazing story), but have held off due to Peru risk.

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

From what I read, the 2 mines that the government are threatening to close down "on environmental grounds" make up two thirds of HOCs gold and silver production.  So they have got resources elsewhere, but it's a hefty kick in the nuts.

Shrinking supply. Lully.

[DurhamBorn]

Nice to see governments,regulators and the EU getting the kicking that was coming now with Private equity going after incumbent telcos.Direct result of over regulation keeping prices too low etc.Likely inflection point for the sector.Only way to save the industry from being asset stripped is to allow markets to fall to three players.I expect here governments will lean on regulators and also encourage the big telcos to merge with smaller ones.Its key we can ride the full cycle so id expect Orange SA,VOD,TEF etc to be key players.National pride matters in telcos so the big countries players will likely be the winners.

[kibuc]

17 minutes ago, Errol said:

This is basically why I've avoided Peru for PM investment so far. Was interested in Kuya silver (still am - amazing story), but have held off due to Peru risk.

I think you'll be thanking yourself for that, if you aren't already. The dangers of Peru have been openly telegraphed ever since the pre-election polls and kept me away from Kuya despite their wonderful story, like you say. For similar reasons I'm staying away from Eloro which has an amazing asset and solid management - in Bolivia.

[CannonFodder]

While this may be a Black Friday sale on Hochschild, 2  for 1 Bogof, I think I,ll just keep what I have and leave it at that.

Having a quick read of news, new permits to explore banned, so they cant open new mines. Existing to close but not clear on timescale, could mean next week or could be 20 years when seams run out from info I can see. Also if timescale exceeds government, eg after election, next lot may change it back again.

All too murky, too uncertain. Impossible to call.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

Special Administration = De facto nationalised.

 

100% Renewable, Green washing company.

🙊🙊🙊

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

I wouldn't feel too bad - one of my junior miners in Oz has halved in price in 12 months as well... because the management are shit.

Im not worried about losing several hundred quid on one silver company, its more my strategy of buying lots of mining companies isnt the best thanks to not being allowed to buy SIL SILJ.

I watch Aussie gold hunters so i know my stuff! 

 

[TNS]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Special Administration = De facto nationalised.

 

100% Renewable, Green washing company.

🙊🙊🙊

OR tax payer to pay the 50m loan bulb owe then move the customers left to another provider.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, TNS said:

OR tax payer to pay the 50m loan bulb owe then move the customers left to another provider.

Yup

 

Either way, we're getting shafted

 

 

 

 

 

[NippyNee]

On 19/11/2021 at 11:31, Festival said:

DXY often tops or bottoms in early January (has happened a number of years in last decade) so maybe DXY ticks higher until then and then next year sees a fall as per David Hunter's call for a lower DXY 85? - with the final blow off top for equities including a run for the commodity producers next year?

DYOR natch

 

I have to say I was following DH posts with quite a bit of attention but going back he has been wrong quite a few times. Hes been calling for all sorts since 2012 and overall not been quite on it not to mention that even inside the last 2 years he has changed the goal posts quite a few times. I dont think he will be fully wrong here but some of his calls are too much and too high.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[HousePriceMania]