Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

22 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Probably made up, but a nice story

But you can legislate the asset owning middle class and the rich into prosperity, its what out govt has been doing since its inception, legislation that has seemingly been on steroids for the last 25 years.

I do wish they would apply this logic to that breed instead of inferring its the scruffy working class who are looking for a free handout on the back of others.

Deregulate planning laws and we'll then see who the real scrounging bastards that are incapable of creating real wealth actually are. 

[Lightscribe]

I sold up in May due the political danger, this video at the time was posted on here IIRC.

Like others have said, I think it may just prove to be a strong arm bargaining chip, as mining takes up 60% of exports for Peru.

I was too slow to get in at the 70 mark this morning, I think it’ll have another downturn for tomorrow market open. I’ll put in a limit buy order at 90.

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

I sold up in May due the political danger, this video at the time was posted on here IIRC.

Like others have said, I think it may just prove to be a strong arm bargaining chip, as mining takes up 60% of exports for Peru.

I was too slow to get in at the 70 mark this morning, I think it’ll have another downturn for tomorrow market open. I’ll put in a limit buy order at 90.

I got through with a price of 77 but baulked at the last minute as I didn't know the details of why they had dropped...now knowing the issue I don't believe it's one that cannot be overcome, and is simply the government posturing/'softening up' the PLC's for their planned tax increases i.e come on strong so that when they make them their offer they think they have got off lightly. What is interesting is that it didn't affect other miners that are have broader product/geographical locations i.e. AAL, so suggests this is why HOC got 'hammered' due to them being so reliant Peruvian mines for 70% their turnover.

[HousePriceMania]

Every cloud....my free skis, thanks to Rivian,  arrived today.

 

Market Summary > Rivian Automotive Inc

108.57 USD−20.03 (15.58%)today

NASDAQ: RIVN

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

Every cloud....my free skis, thanks to Rivian,  arrived today.

 

Market Summary > Rivian Automotive Inc

108.57 USD−20.03 (15.58%)today

NASDAQ: RIVN

In the 1960s it was gas-turbine cars with fins.

Once this lot are finished most people won't be able to afford a trabant.

[HousePriceMania]

I've finally got my margin account approved by Interactive brokers, I had to do a questionnaire they had sent me  on the internal mail system.  Once I proved I was a big boy and could add up they approved my account.

I've opened up a short position on Rightmove ( given the figures I see on property lion I'd be a fool not to ).  If I profit from this I will smile for years to come.

The margin account has let me lever up around 3.5% not that I would do that but it's interesting to see and quite frightening.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

Latest Hussman downdate, he's not feeling happy but it's not a market call.

Quote

 

Here and now, market conditions are characterized by:

1. The most extreme valuations in U.S. history, on the measures we find best-correlated with actual subsequent market returns over the past century, and even in recent decades, coupled with lopsided bullish sentiment and historic levels of margin leverage;
2. Deterioration and divergence across measures of market internals that we believe to be reliable gauges of investor psychology toward speculation versus risk-aversion;
3. The largest preponderance of overextended syndromes – typically associated with intermediate or cyclical market peaks – that we’ve ever observed in history.

Not a forecast. Not a “limit.” Not a market call. Just sharing what we’re seeing.

Still, it’s fair to add that we’ve never seen such a thing.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/

 

 

[sancho panza]

@jamtomorrow and to any  other of the techy knowledgable types.

Apparently,there's some ETF lsited int eh US that tracks or invests in bitcvoin

I'm not really interested in buying crypto as I sjtu don't understand anything about it.However,I'm willing to have a look at some otpions trades on the ETF if they're avalaible.This ETF will allow some really inexperienced people to invest in crypto(not dissimialr to myself) and could create a real blow off top of retail money.

Dyor natch

 

Thanks if anyone can help.

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, janch said:

Me too and I don't think I will risk any more although it did work with AAL and I manged to get out with a very small profit.

I'm keeping an eye on it though as I think @Majorpaincould be right and people have panicked when maybe it was all bluster from the Peruvian government.

Its something to really keep an eye on IMO, there are some unhappy people in the local area.  But tensions between locals and mines is something that occurs literally everywhere so its not new.

What is certain is a load of small people panic sold and got fleeced today, I know because I was one of the ones doing the fleecing #sorrynotsorry.

 

[Harley]

52 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Latest Hussman downdate, he's not feeling happy but it's not a market call.

 

Plenty of podcasts this week mentioning we're topping with a material downside due.  Just talk of course.  Follow your data....

[BurntBread]

8 hours ago, Loki said:

Anyone got the balls to cost average down?

Fellow sufferer here with the "Paddington Bear share". I had a look at it a while ago, with an eye to doubling down, as it was showing red. I then realised that I shouldn't have bought it in the first place, as P/E was very high. Now, of course, "E" is a matter of speculation.

I'm going to hold (as always), but not add. Hopefully some of it comes back; if not, it won't bankrupt me. In sowing a portfolio, I guess some of the seeds are going to fall on stony ground, spring up, only to wither in a bad jurisdiction. Some will fall along the path, and be gobbled up by private equity; and some will be choked by Greta. The hope of course is that some fall on good ground ...

[nirvana]

[Axeman123]

24 minutes ago, Harley said:

Plenty of podcasts this week mentioning we're topping with a material downside due.  Just talk of course.  Follow your data....

I can't shake the feeling that isn't sentiment you see right at a top. I could see one last FOMO spike first, to get everyone drunk, before the rug pull.

Not that I know much of course.

[Loki]

Just an energy observation - it's a still Monday evening, not particularly cold.

Gridwatch shows consumption just nudging amber, at 45.50GW

CCGT 21.51GW
Nuclear 5.63GW
Wind 6.29GW
Coal 2.65GW
Pumped 2.04GW
 

[Underwhelmed]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

@jamtomorrow and to any  other of the techy knowledgable types.

Apparently,there's some ETF lsited int eh US that tracks or invests in bitcvoin

I'm not really interested in buying crypto as I sjtu don't understand anything about it.However,I'm willing to have a look at some otpions trades on the ETF if they're avalaible.This ETF will allow some really inexperienced people to invest in crypto(not dissimialr to myself) and could create a real blow off top of retail money.

Dyor natch

 

Thanks if anyone can help.

i dont believe you can anymore, FCA in their infinite wisdom banned it for UK retail.

[jamtomorrow]

30 minutes ago, Underwhelmed said:

i dont believe you can anymore, FCA in their infinite wisdom banned it for UK retail.

That's my understanding too, the new ETFs would be covered by the FCA ban that came in January 6 this year -

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-bans-sale-crypto-derivatives-retail-consumers

No such problem if you have a trading account outside UK of course.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

What the FAANGMAN hides ..

That is quite a thing to behold! It rather fits in the idea of a rolling bear market, with different sectors rolling over one after another, and all concealed by declining breadth. Any chance of seeing the inverse, ie % above all time closing high?

We might not be at the top yet, but we must be getting near!

[ThoughtCriminal]

Every day is laugh your tits off day

[Axeman123]

46 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Every day is laugh your tits off day

Surely they will just raise the price cap, and perhaps have some hardship scheme for widows and orphans badly impacted? Most of bulb's customers are probably perfectly able to absorb some increase, if not outright well off due to using a "green" energy supplier. 850B seems crazy.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Every day is laugh your tits off day

When you force own ROCE to levels where its not worth investing this is the shit show you get.Telcos were only a small way away from the same problem,but regulators are moving there just in time.

The UK government have tried to force down prices to levels that couldnt be sustained,and for me,the main reason they did it was to try to make up a bit for the council tax robbery etc going on.The civil service in this country are just a cushy group who do everything for their own interests.

The government has several things going on now that in the past would of brought governments down singular.It just shows what a printing press and a horrific opposition can do.Likely a new right leaning party will form and cut the Tories legs off.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

No such problem if you have a trading account outside UK of course.

I think it is.

[macca]

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

Talc is safe.

https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cancer-causes/talcum-powder-and-cancer.html

https://www.webmd.com/cancer/talcum-powder-cancer

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44816805

Well if it is they certainly got screwed..

[JREWING]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

When you force own ROCE to levels where its not worth investing this is the shit show you get.Telcos were only a small way away from the same problem,but regulators are moving there just in time.

The UK government have tried to force down prices to levels that couldnt be sustained,and for me,the main reason they did it was to try to make up a bit for the council tax robbery etc going on.The civil service in this country are just a cushy group who do everything for their own interests.

The government has several things going on now that in the past would of brought governments down singular.It just shows what a printing press and a horrific opposition can do.Likely a new right leaning party will form and cut the Tories legs off.

We've no government DB. We are ruled under dictatorship now. One party under varying names. LabLibCon.

Democracy went decades ago along with affordable housing and the ability to earn a decent living to support a family relative to costs of energy and travel.

He was groomed, Diana Dors of government, perfect fit in the new world we are all being groomed for.

It's like is it really worth bothering to get out of bed for the shit show of a pantomime which we all have to star in.

Thank Fook for alcohol.

[Noallegiance]

 

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

Look at it this way: the post-2008 period was incredibly difficult to protect or grow wealth, as it was uncharted territory. Sure, in retrospect leverage plus residential property was the winner but I maintain that was not foreseeable at the time.

Decades of inflation dead ahead is surely an investors dream: a well understood environment with a well-tested historical playbook, that could see many of us out without needing to rotate asset classes again once we have bought in. The best inflation assets are currently at bargain prices, from a big picture perspective, and represent an opportunity to get in at the ground floor. The best analogy would be buying long-bonds when yields peaked in the late 1980s, and just putting your feet up for 30 years.