Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Errol]

Epic fall in Hochschild today due to Peru closing mines:

Not a holder, but might be looking now. What else do they have that is not in Peru?

- Edit- just had a quick look at website, and apparently not much.

 

[Majorpain]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Fair play I hope your gutsyness gets rewarded!

I've been in mining shares for 10 years now reasonably successfully, so there is a bit more too it than gutsyness!  There are two types of smackdowns in my experience, justified (i.e. well finds no oil, mine/price collapses) and unjustified (media speculation, political scaremongering).  Bail ASAP if justified and buy more if unjustified!

I'm leaning towards this being a political shakedown by the commies at the top to try and get the rest of the mining sector to pony up some more taxes, this spooked PI's on Sunday but they are limited by Peruvian law and courts in what they can do.  They can make life difficult for HOC but the last thing they want is the mining sector to completely pull investment as that would drop them right in it.

[JimmyTheBruce]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Epic fall in Hochschild today due to Peru closing mines:

Not a holder, but might be looking now. What else do they have that is not in Peru?

 

From what I read, the 2 mines that the government are threatening to close down "on environmental grounds" make up two thirds of HOCs gold and silver production.  So they have got resources elsewhere, but it's a hefty kick in the nuts.

[Errol]

This is basically why I've avoided Peru for PM investment so far. Was interested in Kuya silver (still am - amazing story), but have held off due to Peru risk.

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

From what I read, the 2 mines that the government are threatening to close down "on environmental grounds" make up two thirds of HOCs gold and silver production.  So they have got resources elsewhere, but it's a hefty kick in the nuts.

Shrinking supply. Lully.

[DurhamBorn]

Nice to see governments,regulators and the EU getting the kicking that was coming now with Private equity going after incumbent telcos.Direct result of over regulation keeping prices too low etc.Likely inflection point for the sector.Only way to save the industry from being asset stripped is to allow markets to fall to three players.I expect here governments will lean on regulators and also encourage the big telcos to merge with smaller ones.Its key we can ride the full cycle so id expect Orange SA,VOD,TEF etc to be key players.National pride matters in telcos so the big countries players will likely be the winners.

[kibuc]

17 minutes ago, Errol said:

This is basically why I've avoided Peru for PM investment so far. Was interested in Kuya silver (still am - amazing story), but have held off due to Peru risk.

I think you'll be thanking yourself for that, if you aren't already. The dangers of Peru have been openly telegraphed ever since the pre-election polls and kept me away from Kuya despite their wonderful story, like you say. For similar reasons I'm staying away from Eloro which has an amazing asset and solid management - in Bolivia.

[CannonFodder]

While this may be a Black Friday sale on Hochschild, 2  for 1 Bogof, I think I,ll just keep what I have and leave it at that.

Having a quick read of news, new permits to explore banned, so they cant open new mines. Existing to close but not clear on timescale, could mean next week or could be 20 years when seams run out from info I can see. Also if timescale exceeds government, eg after election, next lot may change it back again.

All too murky, too uncertain. Impossible to call.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

Special Administration = De facto nationalised.

 

100% Renewable, Green washing company.

🙊🙊🙊

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

I wouldn't feel too bad - one of my junior miners in Oz has halved in price in 12 months as well... because the management are shit.

Im not worried about losing several hundred quid on one silver company, its more my strategy of buying lots of mining companies isnt the best thanks to not being allowed to buy SIL SILJ.

I watch Aussie gold hunters so i know my stuff! 

 

[TNS]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Special Administration = De facto nationalised.

 

100% Renewable, Green washing company.

🙊🙊🙊

OR tax payer to pay the 50m loan bulb owe then move the customers left to another provider.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, TNS said:

OR tax payer to pay the 50m loan bulb owe then move the customers left to another provider.

Yup

 

Either way, we're getting shafted

 

 

 

 

 

[NippyNee]

On 19/11/2021 at 11:31, Festival said:

DXY often tops or bottoms in early January (has happened a number of years in last decade) so maybe DXY ticks higher until then and then next year sees a fall as per David Hunter's call for a lower DXY 85? - with the final blow off top for equities including a run for the commodity producers next year?

DYOR natch

 

I have to say I was following DH posts with quite a bit of attention but going back he has been wrong quite a few times. Hes been calling for all sorts since 2012 and overall not been quite on it not to mention that even inside the last 2 years he has changed the goal posts quite a few times. I dont think he will be fully wrong here but some of his calls are too much and too high.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Special Administration = De facto nationalised.

 

100% Renewable, Green washing company.

🙊🙊🙊

There mission was to reduce "members" carbon dioxide emissions by supplying them with green or renewable energy (Ignore the gas??!! ).  Its a good thing its wasn't making a profit because despite doubling turnover to £1.5bn they still managed to lose £63m in the year.  

The directors were actually only on relatively frugal £113k each, less than the peoples energy shysters!

[HousePriceMania]

 

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

Anyone got the balls to cost average down?

You need balls of steel in this game

 

Mine are plastic though.

 

[CannonFodder]

19 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

You need balls of steel in this game

 

Mine are plastic though.

 

I,ve made a small sized fortune on HOC today ....

My starting point was a medium sized fortune

[Errol]

Lol at gold falling on Powell news. Powell is a lunatic. Gold should rise!

Clear cartel/central bank action.

[CannonFodder]

4 minutes ago, Errol said:

Lol at gold falling on Powell news. Powell is a lunatic. Gold should rise!

Clear cartel/central bank action.

I personally feel Brainard was more of a loon, hence the falling.

PLUS if it all goes wrong, it was a Trump appointee

[Errol]

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

There mission was to reduce "members" carbon dioxide emissions by supplying them with green or renewable energy (Ignore the gas??!! ).  Its a good thing its wasn't making a profit because despite doubling turnover to £1.5bn they still managed to lose £63m in the year.  

The directors were actually only on relatively frugal £113k each, less than the peoples energy shysters!

Its incredible how poor out MPs are for not seeing the dislocation in the energy market.All these companies simply took capital away from real energy companies who simply couldnt invest and instead had to slash to survive.All those costs now foisted onto all bill payers.People using these firms should lose their credit balances,after all they chose to pay slightly less for a dodgy company.

I had to phone the Drs surgery today to get my sick note extended  it took 55 minutes to get through 19 in line.Thats just the reception.The country is paying the highest tax ever for the worst services ever.If you actually want to see a Dr its weeks.Money making racket now nothing more.

I dont think we will see systemic collapse this cycle,but its not out of the question.The state now seems to tax at huge levels,but offer no services in return.

 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Errol said:

 

Nodody else wants the risk of unhedged supply so refusing these customers.

[janch]

6 hours ago, Loki said:

You are not alone mate, invested £1,110.54, now worth 427.68.

Me too and I don't think I will risk any more although it did work with AAL and I manged to get out with a very small profit.

I'm keeping an eye on it though as I think @Majorpaincould be right and people have panicked when maybe it was all bluster from the Peruvian government.