Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[TNS]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

I asked Interactive Brokers. The reply:

Please note that we are preparing for potential bulk DR conversion, but there are difficulties involved in the process due to current sanctions and restrictions imposed by depositories, clearinghouses and regulatory authorities.
We cannot guarantee successful settlement of MOEX shares and therefore cannot guarantee that Interactive Brokers will be able to offer conversion of Russian DRs to MOEX shares.

Has anyone opened an account with Gazprombank?

Im going to try and see what the process is

There's a discussion channel on Discord:

https://discord.gg/rnYjAB79

not much for UK based holders though....

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They do,but its the gap from say 45 to 67 without the big bennies.They changed the rules on Pension Credit for couples as well,you only get it when both sides of the couple are state pension age,not just when the first one is as it used to be.So if someone is 67 and partner is 63 no Pension credit until he is 71 and shes 67.UC instead,but state pension is higher than couples UC,so nothing,they would have to live off one state pension.

I told Blairs agent at the time at a council vote count that Browns tax credits etc would be a disaster long term for the working class,he said it was short term until wages increased,like a tax cut.Brown hoodwinked Blair on them.

Still every bennie claimant I know (and I know a fair few through my partners sister) has a least squeezed one more kid out at 40+ alongside the older ones with ADHD for carers allowance etc.

Basically the tax credit train doesn’t stop for them leaving only a decade in benefit wilderness (57-67 - none of these women are going to be ‘married’ for couple rules for pension credit).

That benefit brick wall should be hitting by the end of this decade so some way to go (the working tax paying sector will be decimated by then) although it will start to become apparent in dribs and drabs way before that.

Everyones getting far more disabled as time goes on, amazing with modern medicine and technology.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1063012/Ch4_Disability.xlsx

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, TNS said:

There's a discussion channel on Discord:

https://discord.gg/rnYjAB79

not much for UK based holders though....

That was helpful, thanks

I am going down the rabbit hole and will open a Gazprombank account. I started a new thread to detail it all and not clutter up this thread:

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, Dogtania said:

I visited an hmv and fopp shop at the weekend.  First time in years and was shocked by the vinyl prices. Seemed to be almost £30 for a 'bog standard' album.  Maybe I've just not kept track or the cost of producing compared with say CDs is being reflected.

I did know a lot of older vinyl had been growing in value for a while.  For someone with the space and enjoys music there must be worse bets, granted not sure I'd like the idea of starting a collection at such prices.... Though not sure I'd be inclined to sell either.  Poor man's art market an analogue?

Lego not so sure.  More one dimensional and imo even if a great toy it's still plastic tat at the end of the day.  Saying that I was in a lego shop recently and was tempted by the statue of liberty, was 'only' £40 odd but liked the look of (as an ornament not investment).

I kept all my vinyl but have relative who told me it was done years ago. He said the future was mp3 etc and gave all his vinyl away to charity shops. Now he's trying to buy his collection back bit by bit at eye watering prices.

I did tell him!

 

[Democorruptcy]

Permabear Hussman still not happy about current valuations but says even if he's completely wrong he'll be OK:

Quote

 

We’ve even established criteria – coupled with position limits and safety nets that constrain risk – that I expect will allow us to tolerate and even prosper even if market valuations never approach their historical norms again. We don’t expect that sort of world, but we’ve allowed for it.

Making Friends with Bears Through Math

 

 

[Errol]

27 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I kept all my vinyl but have relative who told me it was done years ago. He said the future was mp3 etc and gave all his vinyl away to charity shops. Now he's trying to buy his collection back bit by bit at eye watering prices.

I did tell him!

 

The way I see it, the more digital the world becomes the more there will be a need and demand for non-digital, real things of quality. 

[Errol]

[Xtal]

 

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I kept all my vinyl but have relative who told me it was done years ago...

That relative was right, vinyl is done!

Idiots with too much money are building "collections" they will never listen to, in order to display as a sign of taste. Some savvy speculators are hyping it to get rich.

As much of a ceremony as putting a vinyl recording on is, how often does anyone actually go through all that? Who has time to regularly listen to a whole LP album these days?

It is up there with "collections" of mass-produced modern Swiss watches IMO.

Give me configurable playlists, or give me death!

[CannonFodder]

11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

 

Give me configurable playlists, or give me death!

Such a great album. I wonder how much it is in vinyl.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Give_Me_Convenience_or_Give_Me_Death

 

[CannonFodder]

Dead Kennedys becoming more of a nostradamus 

 

 

[Bilbo]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

Everyones getting far more disabled as time goes on, amazing with modern medicine and technology.

But but ..... now everyone can work from home 🤣

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Give me configurable playlists, or give me death!

Love a bit of Kennedys me.

I have a lot of vinyl, collected over the years and inherited the FIL stuff, 60s 70s mainly, mono beatles albums and apple records box sets. I have 80s rock, acdc, guns and roses first album, Metallica 10" garage days re revisted etc.

You know, I think the mono records sound better than the stereo stuff, just more power in some way.

[Bricormortis]

There is 6 nato warships arrived in Devonport yard Plymouth and there has been some uptick of activity re the Forces there. It did raise my eyebrows a bit given the context re Ukraine, now today I am reading Nato are looking at going into the Black Sea to get the grain out.

Now it may not happen, also Russia might back off. However If it gets nasty you have to expect big market volatility.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-s-nato-envoy-warns-royal-navy-may-have-to-battle-russia/ar-AAXXPge?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eab484ab661b4f6fbc5956b187be4a7d

 

Alec Shelbrooke, MP and leader of Uk parliament delegation to Nato said...

“This would be a dangerous task, and we must be prepared that we may need to engage in lethal defensive force against the Russian Naval sea blockade. This would certainly run the risk of escalating the war in Europe, and a high risk of death to British service personnel serving in any Joint Expeditionary Force.

“If we do not properly consider such a mission, then I believe we risk hyperinflation on food prices at home, and starvation in the third world, which will undoubtedly lead to yet further influxes of refugees into Europe.

[Pip321]

43 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Love a bit of Kennedys me.

I have a lot of vinyl, collected over the years and inherited the FIL stuff, 60s 70s mainly, mono beatles albums and apple records box sets. I have 80s rock, acdc, guns and roses first album, Metallica 10" garage days re revisted etc.

You know, I think the mono records sound better than the stereo stuff, just more power in some way.

I have a 1970’s radiogram in the dining room. Not used much but a great sound for vinyls. Undertones, Blondie, The Jam were my top 3 back in the day so I have them on vinyl. Bat out of Hell (obs), Human League, Squeeze….and some nice collectibles.

But outside vinyl I like to drift around you tube linked to a speaker with a huge eclectic range from Leadbelly, John Denver, Dean Martin to the Dead Kennedy’s and SLF. I just like great songs….😉

I have seen decent LPs for £2 but in the same shop the range is massive. Bowie, Beatles etc ie ‘perceived cooler stuff’ going for £30. 

[reformed nice guy]

10 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

further influxes of refugees into Europe.

Putins greatest weapon

Erdogans biggest bargaining chip

[Bilbo]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

There is 6 nato warships arrived in Devonport yard Plymouth and there has been some uptick of activity re the Forces there. It did raise my eyebrows a bit given the context re Ukraine, now today I am reading Nato are looking at going into the Black Sea to get the grain out.

Now it may not happen, also Russia might back off. However If it gets nasty you have to expect big market volatility.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-s-nato-envoy-warns-royal-navy-may-have-to-battle-russia/ar-AAXXPge?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eab484ab661b4f6fbc5956b187be4a7d

 

Alec Shelbrooke, MP and leader of Uk parliament delegation to Nato said...

“This would be a dangerous task, and we must be prepared that we may need to engage in lethal defensive force against the Russian Naval sea blockade. This would certainly run the risk of escalating the war in Europe, and a high risk of death to British service personnel serving in any Joint Expeditionary Force.

“If we do not properly consider such a mission, then I believe we risk hyperinflation on food prices at home, and starvation in the third world, which will undoubtedly lead to yet further influxes of refugees into Europe.

Perhaps this should be in the war and conflicts section. I am no military expert but doesn't Ukraine have only one port left, Odessa? Wouldn't Russia just bomb the f..k out of the port? What am I missing?

[Bricormortis]

9 minutes ago, Bilbo said:

Perhaps this should be in the war and conflicts section. I am no military expert but doesn't Ukraine have only one port left, Odessa? Wouldn't Russia just bomb the f..k out of the port? What am I missing?

It might come to nothing, if it gets violent who knows what happens. I do know the Russians greatly fear RN submarines though. Aircraft Carrier seen off Plymouth late last week also.

[Majorpain]

5 minutes ago, Bilbo said:

Perhaps this should be in the war and conflicts section. I am no military expert but doesn't Ukraine have only one port left, Odessa? Wouldn't Russia just bomb the f..k out of the port? What am I missing?

There are sea mines around the port.  Ukrainian ones....

Unsurprisingly merchant ships (and insurers) are not too keen on them playing minesweeper.

Alec Shelbrooke also misses minor things like the Montreaux convention that means Turkey can block naval ships at a time of war, which funnily enough they have done so, ain't no NATO or Russian warships going through into the black sea.  

Quote

In a message to constituents, Mr Shelbrooke said that a challenge to Boris Johnson’s leadership would be “an indulgence” at a time when the prime minister is playing a prominent role in the global response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

War and sabre rattling is good for keeping politician parties during covid off the headlines.

[StrugglingMillennial]

10 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Delisted yesterday and due to be cancelled on June 16th...

No further news from HL on this so am preparing to be bogged!

https://topforeignstocks.com/2022/05/18/russias-gazprom-to-terminate-adr-program/ 

Will we remain the holder's of our shares during this period.

Also what is happening to any dividends that are being paid out? 

[Plan-b]

Shell gets green light for biggest North Sea oil project in decades

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/shell-gets-green-light-for-biggest-north-sea-oil-project-in-decades/ar-AAXYjw2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=b3bc630c0a5649c2a11621f2292b2268

 

[Barnsey]

This is what happens when inflation forces benny trolls to cook at home, god help us (and the NHS)...

 

[snaga]

11 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

It might come to nothing, if it gets violent who knows what happens. I do know the Russians greatly fear RN submarines though. Aircraft Carrier seen off Plymouth late last week also.

The sea near Odessa is quite shallow <200m how shallow can it be for subs to operate in combat?

[Pip321]

Just had my request to increase my estimated costs for energy is £3174 and my DD has moved from £100 to £246 to new asking for £265. I think your average punter is going to have to shut up shop.....I for one will cut back on other things to make up for it just on principal. If I struggled financially I would be saving every penny I could today for fear of not being able to eat this winter..

Lots of numbers on the bottom for National Debt Line.....so that's nice. I see the standing charge has gone up too...well, in for a penny. 

Our local Co-op now charges £1.55 for milk (it was £1.10 with a two for one deal now gone). Yesterday I walked w minutes further to One Stop Shop to pick it up for £1.45 (we needed two so £2.90).....again on principal. No point considering the raise OTT and then not voting with your feet. I am sure my omission of milk today rocked them to the core, well maybe not but it made me feel better. 

I guess the whole problem of the benefit culture and state dependency (including pensions) is for those who don't earn their own money and rely on the state then the fact they can't eat becomes the governments problem  

 

[Boon]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

This is what happens when inflation forces benny trolls to cook at home, god help us (and the NHS)...

 

I had a feeling this would be 'Kay's Cooking'.

I suspect that channel is actually deliberate, making dishes so bad that a lot of people are duped into thinking it is serious and thus getting publicity.

She has over 200k subscribers, so could be pulling in a bit of money per month from the ad revenue sharing program.

Certainly there are many wannabe serious TV chefs out there who actually put a lot of effort into recipies and filming who get less views. But seems to me that is easier to do the crap stuff. There was an account 'Rate my Takeaway' which started as a fat northern bloke eating chips on camera, I bet that is his full time job now.