Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Pip321]

DB, I know you like retired civil servants so thought I would share.

Pub last night, my friends neighbours (retired civil servants since age 60) have just bought a car as a town run around. So the couple in their late 60’s now own 2 Volvos and now a brand new Clubman. 3 cars…yummy  

No room on the drive so they are taking down the garage and moving it back 20 foot for more space.

And these civil servants were furious over fuel and energy prices and we should somehow charge the extra we pay back to the Russians.

Marvellous…they appear to be economic and political geniuses too. No wonder they have ‘earned’ a wealthy inflation linked retirement 🤦🏻‍♂️

[Boon]

4 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

Does anyone know what's going on with Jupiter Fund Management (JUP) ? Most of the Asset managers seem to have improved recently but these lot are taking a right shoeing of late.

Just curious...not panicking yet of course as it's early days for all the asset managers. 

Jupiter went ex-dividend yesterday which knocked c.7p off.

Also they seem to have sucked with some of their investments, backing some right duds.

https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/hargreaves-lansdown-funds-ditch-jupiter-small-caps-team/a2393652

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, marceau said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Every tory leader sounds like this when they're at the door.

Once they're inside:

 

True,but with Dishi collapse is certain.There are enough MPs in the Tory ranks to make a difference.Badenoch,Braverman for starters.Its the media,civil service,public sector etc that will stop things,so start by going to war with them.The fact she said cut tax,not more bennies is a huge step,and brave.

[Democorruptcy]

On 27/07/2022 at 09:46, DurhamBorn said:

More anyone with big German exposure.

Noticed Ray Dalio has been moving more and more capital to Emerging Markets as well out of the dollar.

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Bridgewater+Associates

Bridgewater have filed their end of June positions and he went back the other way (then), Selling a lot of the Vanguard EM and buying Googl, Meta etc. Also sold some GLD.

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/bridgewater-associates-inc#tabholdings_tab_link

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

I'll believe it when I see it. Every tory leader sounds like this when they're at the door.

Once they're inside:

 

Can't fault your scepticism, but I'm very surprised that she's come out like that and directly defended them, especially before the vote.

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Bilbo said:

So approximately 200,000 people homeless in London. Are they on the streets? Think we need to define homeless, don't you?

That's harsh of you... don't forget most of those people are also in 'poverty', oh and many also suffer from 'mental illness' and/or 'addiction problems'. The daily indignities these proud victims of an intolerant society are made to suffer should make your heart bleed!?!                            (25 years ago Douglas Adams might have included something sardonic like that in his brilliant Hitch Hickers... books, how things have changed?)

[ThoughtCriminal]

File under "ABSOLUTELY FUCKING NAILS IT!"

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

That's harsh of you... don't forget most of those people are also in 'poverty', oh and many also suffer from 'mental illness' and/or 'addiction problems'. The daily indignities these proud victims of an intolerant society must suffer should make your heart bleed!?!                        (20 years ago Douglas Adams might have included something sardonic like that in his brilliant Hitch Hickers... books, how things have changed?)

Douglas Adams has been dead for more than 20 years. Hitchhiker's Guide is over 40 years old.

Man was a genius.

[marceau]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't fault your scepticism, but I'm very surprised that she's come out like that and directly defended them, especially before the vote.

She has no choice on energy, there's too much political pain. They need a short term fix and working with the energy firms is the only one available. That it happens to be the right thing to do is just incidental, they just want the headlines to go away.

If they get out the other side it'll be straight back to green stupidity - it's a matter of national policy, and international law.

[Boon]

She is so far ahead that she can now afford to say it as it is. And most Tory voters aren't going to mind that, she is not pitching at the general public.

Compare that to Sunak who is now groping around to see what can make him appeal to them, it'll be interesting if he decides to come out with a u-turn on something. He is finished in politics for the next few years otherwise.

[stoobs]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

"Temporary factors such as an extra bank holiday and the phasing out of the test and trace scheme were behind the fall in GDP in the second quarter," said Ms Selfin.

Honestly….the whole piece is a series of contradictions referencing increases in hospitality helping but removal of track and trace causing the fall. I might be misreading the piece because of skim reading and my increasing bias to shite surface reporting.

Seems to me they just say whatever pops into their head to fit a narrative. Like me after 5 pints.🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺

I was thinking exactly the same. They just pick a small item that is roughly the size of the growth/reduction and blame that for the entire figure.

If you had a set of scales and put a tonne of gold on the left side and a tonne of horse manure on the right.

Then add a feather to the manure.

Economists would explain the scales are tipping to the right because of the feather, absolutely nothing to do with the massive pile of shit.

[JimmyTheBruce]

For those wondering if the government are still looking out for their buddies (and I mean the old guard rather than the over-leveraged newbies).  My bold:

Green Homes Grant Local Authority Delivery Scheme
To be eligible, households must:
•    Have a household income of £30,000 or less, or £20,000 or less after housing costs
•    Live in a property with an EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) rating of D, E, F or G (the four lowest ratings)
Both homeowners and landlords are eligible to apply for the scheme. In the case of a rental property, the household income requirement relates to the income of the household living in the property, and not the landlord’s income.
 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Those nails keep going in that petrodollar coffin.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

You can take my olive oil soap from my cold dead hot wet hands

Absolute revelation that stuff.

 

Mother gets me it dirt cheap from Turkey. Just water, olive oil and sea salt. 

 

Cleans like nothing else, and kind to your bollocks. 

[BadAlchemy]

Interactive Investor have dropped their trading fee from £7.99 to £5.99 From 1st September. Happy days!

https://www.ii.co.uk/our-charges#newpricing

[Yadda yadda yadda]

23 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

For those wondering if the government are still looking out for their buddies (and I mean the old guard rather than the over-leveraged newbies).  My bold:

Green Homes Grant Local Authority Delivery Scheme
To be eligible, households must:
•    Have a household income of £30,000 or less, or £20,000 or less after housing costs
•    Live in a property with an EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) rating of D, E, F or G (the four lowest ratings)
Both homeowners and landlords are eligible to apply for the scheme. In the case of a rental property, the household income requirement relates to the income of the household living in the property, and not the landlord’s income.
 

How much does it cost to get an EPC? Is that a barrier to entry for everyone who hasn't either bought recently, and therefore mostly have a high income, or is a landlord who needs one for regulatory purposes. Looks like a bung to landlords. No doubt pushes costs up for anyone who wants to do this work of their own backs as it will suck in labour and materials.

[Democorruptcy]

Ponzi copper!

Glencore cuts ties with Chinese trader over missing $500mn of copper

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fe5feaeee-e459-44d8-a885-9d04d94b2d51

[ThoughtCriminal]

Michael Burry seeing red flags everywhere.

 

Going to be far worse than anything we've ever seen in his opinion.

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How much does it cost to get an EPC? Is that a barrier to entry for everyone who hasn't either bought recently, and therefore mostly have a high income, or is a landlord who needs one for regulatory purposes. Looks like a bung to landlords. No doubt pushes costs up for anyone who wants to do this work of their own backs as it will suck in labour and materials.

It’s around £100 for an EPC

[JMD]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

£21 a month my water bill,bargain.We have Kielder.When i was a kid we used to play in the dried up old reservoirs around here.They used to have about a foot of water in the bottom all the way across and zillions of newts etc.All gone now,filled in.

That is a bargain. I have to pay two different companies, one provides the clean water supply and the other for the wastewater (treatment works), and each costs me approx £22/month, £44 total.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Douglas Adams has been dead for more than 20 years. Hitchhiker's Guide is over 40 years old.

Man was a genius.

Now you tell me. Time flies. However I did think he was just spending a decade or two dead for tax purposes!! (paraphrasing him of course)

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

A number of reservoirs round here have been decommissioned, filled in or built on. Millions more people in the country since then, but less water capture and storage. We really are run by idiots

My local one wasnt used anymore,but had about 1 foot of water in the bottom and about an inch of silt,it sometimes dried right out by mid summer.It had thousands of newts,and the protected one Great Crested.They filled it in.Shocking.Now they spend millions building ponds for newts,but there are no newts around here,plus they weed over in no time and go to bog.One pond had newts some idiot put fish in.I told the council,it took them 3 years to decide to electro fish it and net it,by that time there were no newts yet.Government and councils are useless,they make things that should take 3 days take 3 years.Me and my mates at 13 years old did more for the newts.They were building a new road and roundabout and filling in a lovely pond.My and my mates broke in the compound on the night,cut all the fuel pipes and hydraulic pies on the diggers,ripped electrics out etc.,knicked all the diesel as well.We then rescued all the frogs and newts into bucket over the next few days and re-located them before the council could replace diggers to fill the pond in.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

29 minutes ago, JMD said:

That is a bargain. I have to pay two different companies, one provides the clean water supply and the other for the wastewater (treatment works), and each costs me approx £22/month, £44 total.

I'm on around £150 every 6 months. Thames Water. Metered.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How much does it cost to get an EPC? Is that a barrier to entry for everyone who hasn't either bought recently, and therefore mostly have a high income, or is a landlord who needs one for regulatory purposes. Looks like a bung to landlords. No doubt pushes costs up for anyone who wants to do this work of their own backs as it will suck in labour and materials.

As castlevania says maybe £100… but shopping around my last 3 were £50 (no Vat) using a local self employed chap.

New rentals (or renewed tenancies) now need an EPC….well technically they don’t but the house must meet the current EPC standards and the only way to demonstrate that is to have an EPC (if that makes sense) 

If a new entrant buys a house to rent out it will have an EPC already (as part of the sale requirement)….they last 10 years but if you come to renew the tenancy new minimum standards will start kicking in soon. Old houses will struggle….easier to serve notice and then sell. 

I have 2 tenants who have used green schemes for new boilers. I wasn’t going to refuse new combi boilers before daft new boiler requirements might start

The boilers ended up costing me about £800 per boiler. I probably ‘saved’ £2000…. the company that fitted them probably charged the government £3k and the tenants now have a new boiler. Everyone is a winner and it’s all free money.🤦🏻‍♂️