Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Just noticed RMG are 410, i sold mine in the mid 500s

Out of curiosity what percentage of your SIPP is in Telcos, as you seem to be frequently topping up in this sector.

Around 24%,but i own nearly all the big ones and several mid range ones.Its interesting,but i think telcos would get their energy before anybody else if they started to ration it as they might.I usually hold between 25 and 35 companies and a few trusts across everything.Im not one for hundreds of companies ,though when i buy the PM space my holdings do go over the 35.I think iv got 8 telcos now and wont be adding any more to the sector,though i may slice some that run to allocate to others.

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Around 24%,but i own nearly all the big ones and several mid range ones.Its interesting,but i think telcos would get their energy before anybody else if they started to ration it as they might.I usually hold between 25 and 35 companies and a few trusts across everything.Im not one for hundreds of companies ,though when i buy the PM space my holdings do go over the 35.I think iv got 8 telcos now and wont be adding any more to the sector,though i may slice some that run to allocate to others.

Crikey you must be confident with such a holding!

 

[JMD]

On 08/10/2021 at 11:34, sancho panza said:

Cheeky I know,but if you don't ask etc.....aside from Endeavour any other small miners that it might be worth us running oru slide rule over.Impact?I'm looking at getting some more Alexco while they're down. 

These from Wealthion might be of use. Some 20 explorer/developer picks and analysis. First one was prepared in July but the guy was interviewed again on wealthion last week and said his choices are still valid, he is still buying them in tranches, have gotten even cheaper, etc.    ...NB the 'miners' one asks for your email but a link is not sent to your email account, instead just intermittently keep clicking the displayed video box until it starts...  https://pages.wealthion.com/miners     https://wealthion.com/jeff/  

[nirvana]

15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I like the fact that telcos as a whole have gone absolutely nowhere the past 18 months.

BT went from 99p to £2.05 .......where's the bogged emoji? 

[nirvana]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

IMO gold is a currency

it's not and it hasn't been for some time.....I think I challenge myself to trade the shit out of it and troll the goldbugs every week...they still won't get it though 

[nirvana]

15 hours ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Haha, better than here anyway. He's saying that the long term forecast for the European winter is looking cold with little wind.

I noticed the wind is coming from Russia and has been for a couple of weeks which is not normal for where I live cos it normally comes from the Atlantic........I blame the Russians....

[nirvana]

[jamtomorrow]

18 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Sorry to zoom in on just one comment but years ago I bought and read Dimitri Orlovs 5 stages of collapse. He describes it mostly in terms of the collapse of the soviet union. Heres a summary if readers havent already read it.
https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/p/the-five-stages-of-collapse.html

Im already past number 3 ;-)

Cracking link. #3 really rings some bells with me - I've long thought the gypsies and travellers will do more than OK with what's coming. Here's the quote:

Social collapse—or, rather, a very stable lack thereof—is studied with reference to the Roma, or Gypsies, who have survived intact over many centuries and who now number in the millions both in Europe and the US in spite of being shut out financially, commercially and politically in every country they inhabit. This case study allows us to ponder what it means to be marginalized, for to be marginalized by a collapse-bound society can be a blessing in disguise.

[wherebee]

13 hours ago, JMD said:

So the deal is that the state will initially own 25%, but what's the prediction this will turn into 50%+ if/when property correction occurs?... Actually it's a good idea, as eventually owning most of a banks assets provides an easy route to nationalising them after the next banking crash happens. But I think really should have started this scheme 10 years ago?                                                                                                                                       Plus it says if you are Aboriginee, you get special lower rates. Can I ask why that is Wherebee? Perhaps there is no logical answer you can provide, but is this kind of policy thing widespread?

firstly, the gvt doesn't own the banks asset.  The loan is secured on the asset excluding the gvts share, as I understand it.  The debt still exists tho - if the house value goes to zero, the bank chases you for the mortgage still.

and re abo benefits- oh, it's endemic in Australia.  30Bn is spent every year on the abos, to fuck all outcome except making some whitefellas very very rich.  It's a massive rort, and nobody will ever stop it.

[Hancock]

23 minutes ago, wherebee said:

firstly, the gvt doesn't own the banks asset.  The loan is secured on the asset excluding the gvts share, as I understand it.  The debt still exists tho - if the house value goes to zero, the bank chases you for the mortgage still.

and re abo benefits- oh, it's endemic in Australia.  30Bn is spent every year on the abos, to fuck all outcome except making some whitefellas very very rich.  It's a massive rort, and nobody will ever stop it.

In the 8 months or so i spent in OZ around the years 2000 and 2003, i always got the impression their politicians were a  dopey versions of our fucken useless lot, who were always looking to out do the Brits.

Its as if they're trying to confirm my theory.

Though sadly it means destroying what seemed like a liveable country not so long ago.

 

[Barnsey]

Thoughts after first couple days in Poland (cheap trip), seriously depressing to see how much money being ploughed into the country vs our feeble efforts, particularly infrastructure (trains and roads). We have SO MUCH more to do. Lots of Chinese and Arab money though as is often the case.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Cracking link. #3 really rings some bells with me - I've long thought the gypsies and travellers will do more than OK with what's coming. Here's the quote:

Social collapse—or, rather, a very stable lack thereof—is studied with reference to the Roma, or Gypsies, who have survived intact over many centuries and who now number in the millions both in Europe and the US in spite of being shut out financially, commercially and politically in every country they inhabit. This case study allows us to ponder what it means to be marginalized, for to be marginalized by a collapse-bound society can be a blessing in disguise.

And the grunge (mostly ex) traveller types I know who turned their backs on a lot of things long ago.

[Animal Spirits]

A perfect storm for food prices

https://www.variantperception.com/2021/10/02/a-perfect-storm-for-food-prices/

Moody’s: Oil Industry Must Spend $542 Billion To Avoid Supply Shock

Global annual upstream spending needs to increase by as much as 54 percent to $542 billion if the oil market is to avert the next supply shortage shock, Moody’s said in a report on Thursday carried by Bloomberg.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Moodys-Oil-Industry-Must-Spend-542-Billion-To-Avoid-Supply-Shock.html

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

And the grunge (mostly ex) traveller types I know who turned their backs on a lot of things long ago.

To an extent. Depends how far the collapse runs, and to what extent violence becomes a regular feature of daily life

[Animal Spirits]

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Invest tomorrow, get your oil in 5-10 years. Problem is now baked in, it's too late. No one in the MSM has any idea how long it takes to do an oil and gas project. They seem to think you can invest the money and turn the tap on, or that there is a bunch of oil sitting on the shelf. There isn't.

Exploration: 18 mths minimum

Appraisal: 6mths (small project) - 3 years. Or longer, if someone decides there isn't enough information to sanction and we need more appraisal

FEED: 1 or 2 years, provided partners don't argue about it.

Unitisation: (if needed) month to forever.

Sanction and investment decision 3-6 months? Maybe quicker for a small field.

Building the platform, drilling production wells, pipelines: 2/3 years?

Ramping up production, with no problems, a year.

ENI have managed in recent years to get projects going inside 5 years, which is bloody amazing when you look at all the above. I've been involved in plenty that have taken 10 years. A cyclical industry. 

It's going to be fun when oil prices are high and this lead time to new production gets out there in the MSM.

It started filtering through with industry insiders then O&G dedicated reporting media and now finanical media like Bloomberg; front page of the newspapers at some point then.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Invest tomorrow, get your oil in 5-10 years. Problem is now baked in, it's too late. No one in the MSM has any idea how long it takes to do an oil and gas project. They seem to think you can invest the money and turn the tap on, or that there is a bunch of oil sitting on the shelf. There isn't.

Exploration: 18 mths minimum

Appraisal: 6mths (small project) - 3 years. Or longer, if someone decides there isn't enough information to sanction and we need more appraisal

FEED: 1 or 2 years, provided partners don't argue about it.

Unitisation: (if needed) month to forever.

Sanction and investment decision 3-6 months? Maybe quicker for a small field.

Building the platform, drilling production wells, pipelines: 2/3 years?

Ramping up production, with no problems, a year.

ENI have managed in recent years to get projects going inside 5 years, which is bloody amazing when you look at all the above. I've been involved in plenty that have taken 10 years. A cyclical industry. 

It's going to be fun when oil prices are high and this lead time to new production gets out there in the MSM.

"They've" had it easy living in a parallel cyberland, playing with their memes, 'isms, and stuff.  Falsely elevating themselves by ignoring the hard "dirty" work involved in engaging with the physical world.  It's like that episode in Star Trek where the beautiful society faces collapse because no one knows how to maintain and operate the supporting machines.  What do you expect when you send so many through the woke further education glubbeter-glubbeter machine.  Enlightenment, my fat spotty arse!

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

A perfect storm for food prices

https://www.variantperception.com/2021/10/02/a-perfect-storm-for-food-prices/

Moody’s: Oil Industry Must Spend $542 Billion To Avoid Supply Shock

Global annual upstream spending needs to increase by as much as 54 percent to $542 billion if the oil market is to avert the next supply shortage shock, Moody’s said in a report on Thursday carried by Bloomberg.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Moodys-Oil-Industry-Must-Spend-542-Billion-To-Avoid-Supply-Shock.html

Governments have shown there is no future for oil,so investors,rightly have said,ok we will have share buy backs instead and triple the value of our in ground assets.For all i moan and will likely end up beating up some lefty woke type at some point they have made things much much easier for grizzled old macro types.The oil play was easy,yet so convinced are people by narrative they simply have no understanding of affects.Time and time again hated industries who decide to stop investing much provide massive returns to investors.

I hope now any lurkers who perhaps enjoy and read the thread can now fully understand what i meant when i said we were going to get a distribution cycle.Whats happening in energy is a classic.Less consumption or selling down other assets or savings to pay for it because you need it.

The cycle is underway and there will be headfakes along the way to shake people out,maybe even a short deflation event,but all that dis-inflation since around 1990 is going to be paid for.

We have had a period of high taxes and low prices in goods and services,now we will get even higher taxes and much higher prices and it will hit most people like a brick wall.

 

[belfastchild]

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Invest tomorrow, get your oil in 5-10 years.

Up to 10 years for offshore wind. God knows how long nuclear and no new coal/gas plants.
Thats a long time to be relying on mild windy winters.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Thoughts after first couple days in Poland (cheap trip), seriously depressing to see how much money being ploughed into the country vs our feeble efforts, particularly infrastructure (trains and roads). We have SO MUCH more to do. Lots of Chinese and Arab money though as is often the case.

Ooh I've been to that shopping centre.  Loved Warsaw.  

Got a fantastic blazer in a shop there that fits me like a glove.

[Harley]

58 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

To an extent. Depends how far the collapse runs, and to what extent violence becomes a regular feature of daily life

A mixed bag but I find the ones I know to be down to earth peaceful souls who just want to be left alone.  Some were really done over by the Establishment.  And the msm have been playing their games for a long time.  I'm sure they had their past but now just want to settle down and raise kids, etc.  But the core attitudes are still there and a lot makes sense.  A sense of civility.  Sadly I lost touch with them.  I'd love to know what they're thinking right now.

PS: I'll never forget one, alas I have to be vague, who was the most out there guy (but boy could he pull!) who had been through it all but could fly through the toughest test any military could throw at him.  He cared so much about keeping his boots and kit clean it would have made the hardest Sarge Major cry!  But you'd never know unless you had taken the risk and engaged, to your betterment.  As I said, amazing who passes through here.

[sleepwello'nights]

6 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Got a fantastic blazer in a shop there that fits me like a glove.

You should have got a larger size. 

[Animal Spirits]

39 minutes ago, Harley said:

"They've" had it easy living in a parallel cyberland, playing with their memes, 'isms, and stuff.  Falsely elevating themselves by ignoring the hard "dirty" work involved in engaging with the physical world.  It's like that episode in Star Trek where the beautiful society faces collapse because no one knows how to maintain and operate the supporting machines.  What do you expect when you send so many through the woke further education glubbeter-glubbeter machine.  Enlightenment, my fat spotty arse!

Chris Martenson referred to them as the Wokesters. I've linked the video time stamped but this statement stood out:

"The people who are trained in that system, the people who become fashioned through that model of thinking turn out to be extraordinarily ungifted at navigating worlds with real crises and real predicaments..."

I've found his channels coverage of CV19 informative as well.

[Bricormortis]

15 hours ago, Phil said:

Taiwan? The drums are getting louder. Perhaps a swan ( don’t want to mention colour).

Taiwan is incredibly complacent. Perhaps relying on the US ? Their army, total 170,000 seems equiped to fight ww2,  the navy has no large vessels, just 22 frigates 4 destroyers, and 2 1980's submarines in the water at any time. They are toast when ever China comes for them, which will be when America is busy dealing with other shit and does not have an appetite to start ww3. Its not for nothing that US is looking to become self reliant for semi conductors.

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, Animal Spirits said:

Chris Martenson referred to them as the Wokesters. I've linked the video time stamped but this statement stood out:

"The people who are trained in that system, the people who become fashioned through that model of thinking turn out to be extraordinarily ungifted at navigating worlds with real crises and real predicaments..."

I've found his channels coverage of CV19 informative as well.

Conclusion no 5.

Quote

The possibility of a major economic shock is all but certain at this point

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/topic/10490-credit-deflation-and-the-reflation-cycle-to-come-part-2/page/867/?tab=comments#comment-1000783

Quote

I think it's the point where inflation starts throttling the economy, and with the amount of liquidity in the pipes as DB says we are a way from a BK in my mind. At 80-100 WTI I'll be watching what the fed does

At $100 WTI I'm gonna start chopping my lower ladders of big oil. BK becomes more and more likely as inflation runs inbound.....

 

[NogintheNog]

23 hours ago, Hancock said:

On 09/10/2021 at 10:37, Axeman123 said:

The mood music is changing, surely preparing the public for what's next:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10075173/Former-chancellor-Lord-Lamont-calls-rate-hike-inflation-rises-3.html

I can see a rate rise at the next BoE meeting on 4th November.

I'll take a £0 bet that they don't raise in November. The BoE want this inflation, they are not going to do anything yet to stop it. Even when they do they'll be so far behind the inflation that rates will still be deeply negative!

If they were gonna raise rates they'd have already done it by now